Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

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Presidential stage taking shape

Besides President Iohannis and Prime Minister Dancila, a lot of parties also need to decide who they want to support. USR-PLUS seems decided to run with Barna, however USR will have its Congress in a few days and Barna is challenged by Cosette Chirchirau. In the unlikely event in which his chanlenger wins, it will create an weird situation and also doom his run for the Presidency. PMP, the party of Traian Basescu, decided to run with Theodor Paleologu, a rather surprising, unexpected choice. He is a right-wing intelectual, very appreciated by urban educated people. This, combined with the choice of Mihail Neamtu, another right-wing, very conservative intelectual, which left PNL for PMP, as the campaign's spokesmen, makes it clear to what type of people they are trying to appeal to. I doubt Paleologu will crack more then 5%, as Basescu is still massively unpopular with just a few loyal fans, and it will be impossible for PMP candidate not to be associated with him, even as the fmr. President largely stayed out of the national politics after he was elected to serve in Bruxelles. Besides, the candidate is not the only one appealing to urban residents, educated people - Iohannis and Barna are both popular amongst them, even more so then Paleologu. Pro Romania seems inclined to support another unexpected candidate, after Victor Ponta declined to run and likely lose again to Iohannis. That is Mircea Diaconu, a former actor and European MP, very popular amongst open PSD and PSD-embarassed fans and a protege of Antena 3, the TV channel which serves as propaganda for PSD together with Romania TV and watched by many, many retirees. This is a very good choice for Pro Romania, and adds another huge burden to Dancila's struggling candidacy. Ponta said he is open to support him and unless they came up with a better choice, it is safe to assume Diaconu will run for them. The only mystery now is ALDE. According to sources, Ponta has convinced his fellow party members to accept an alliance with ALDE, to which some of them were deeply opposed previously, by conditioning it with tough demands - Tariceanu to drop his candidacy for President and support Diaconu, resign from the Senate Chairmanship and basically let Ponta run the alliance, and ALDE to leave the government. The next 3 days will be crucial in this matter, and I mentain my doubts that Tariceanu will accept such conditions and leave the government, but we will see.

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BREAKING: ALDE leaves government, will vote for the motion of no confidence PNL prepared.     

Seems like I was wrong. Oops. Update on the official announcment in a few hours.

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ALDE leaves coalition, creating massive uncertainty

ALDE, PSD's coalition partner and former puppet party, rebelled today and left the PSD-ALDE governing coalition, leaving Romania without a majority. Weirdly, the thing happened exactly as the leaked Ponta conditions said - Tariceanu resigned from his office at the Senate, backed down from the coalition, supported Mircea Diaconu and is likely to take a back seat. An electoral alliance with Pro Romania will be made, and the 2 parties will support Diaconu in the presidential race, as well as run together in the local and parliamentary elections next year. So the presidential race will be: Iohannis (PNL) vs Barna (USR-PLUS) vs Dancila (PSD) vs Diaconu (ALDE-ProRO) vs Paleologu (PMP), with only 3 of those having a shot at the 2nd round.
The entire political scene is shocked by this. PNL will put forward an motion of no confidence, and USR-PLUS, UDMR, PMP, ALDE and Pro Romania all announced they will vote for it, so unless a wave of MPs deflect to PSD (unlikely as the wave of defections seems to be from PSD to Pro Romania and ALDE) or 1-2 of the parties change their mind (unlikely - they all hate PSD), the Dancila Cabinet will be over. Despite this, the PM pledged to fight until the end and try by all means to stay in power - one of ALDE Secretaries refused to resign, Dancila might hope she is followed by more members, which is unlikely as well. So she is 90% ed up. If/when she gets removed from power - snap elections will take place or Iohannis names another technocratic government as USR-PLUS would never collab with ALDE for example and that alone kills any possible majority. Where does that leave the pres. race - it remains to be seen. But PSD is the biggest loser of this events - and might lose everything.

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Nothing of note happened today, everyone reaffirming the stances I mentioned yesterday. Iohannis said he will comment tomorrow on the crisis, very interesting what he will say, and Iar ma launched his campaign today at a rally, reaffirming USR-PLUS's key messages

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Iohannis sends the Cabinet to be reconfirmed by Parliament

President Klaus Iohannis (PNL) said in a press statement today that he will not accept the changes in the structure of the Cabinet, thus sending the Viorica Dancila Government back to the Parliament to be reconfirmed. There, PSD lacks about 30 votes, which they have been desperately trying to win with defectors from ALDE. Their efforts, despite many statements and negociations, have been so far fruitless, and even if they achieved a breakthrough in Tariceanu's party, it is doubtful there are going to be enough MPs to change the tides.
Meanwhile, the opposition is not decided on what to do if the govt fails. UDMR said they are willing to support a new political government, PNL said they want to push for snap elections, USR-PLUS said they'd support a technocratic government but not join a political one and ALDE+ProRomania were unclear, Ponta even seeming to leave a door open to a PSD colaboration. So complete chaos there. Iohannis's decission will be most likely the decisive one.
And a fun element, the actor and former MP with no accomplishments other then supporting Dragnea, Mircea Diaconu, said that, if elected, he will never step foot in the Cotroceni Palace (Romanian equivalent for the White House). WTF.

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Not much happened today, except for Dancila making weird statements that even if her Cabinet does not get the confidence from the Parliament, she is gonna stay PM, and USR-PLUS changing its stance and saying they are willing to enter a political government.

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PSD Leaders reunited at Constanta in a Council and attacked Iohannis - threating to reach to the Constitutional Court to force him to appoint their Deputies and sue him because he called their government "incompetent and corrupt", all the while all parties are gathering up votes to take them down from government.

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The motion of no confidence - where do the main parties stand?

It is very unlikely for PM Dancila to gather up the 29 votes she misses for having a majority, assuming Ponta doesn't take a few more MPs from PSD. She may gather on her side the national minorities - and those are only 18 MPs, which is not enough. Never was PSD more isolated on the political scene.
Paradoxally, the attacks from all sides and the threatened position may advantage Dancila at the presidentials, because the perspective of losing the government is the only thing that can mobilise a disappointed and more and more ineffective PSD aparatus, especially the Mayors.
Exluding the victim card that she wanted to do a lot but can't anymore, Dancila can also send said aparatus a very clear message: either we get a decent enough score to somehow stay in power or I lose in a disaster - but you too lose the government.
On the other side, there is no clear coalition to take the government.
PNL and USR-PLUS have candidates for the presidential election as the 2 frontrunners, in such a situation they won't be able to form a coalition, but even if they do - the situation in which the incompetence and corruption of Dragnea and Dancila brought the country in is going to be payed by their new coalition.
Victor Ponta managed to break the coalition apart, but doesn't want to make enemies in PSD by sending it in opposition and join a PNL-USR-PLUS coalition. Victor Ponta wants to take over PSD once Dancila makes a fool out of herself at the polls and this new PSD to take the government.
Neither ALDE, with its 4%, can't make any demands, but the presidentials can make its position stronger.
That is the part Mircea Diaconu has to play - no one thinks he will actually win, but a good percentage could be helpful for Pro Romania and ALDE.
From where would Diaconu take votes? From the PSD electorate, and massively so, because he appeals to the nationalist electorate and communists nostalgics combined.
With Diaconu, ALDE would try to erase the 4% from the EU elections, and Pro Romania to finish off Viorica Dancila, offering an alternative to PSD, which they seek to take over. They especially target the local aparatus, which is the hardest to build for a new party.
So all actors are intersted in keeping Viorica Dancila as acting PM until the presidential elections, especially President Iohannis, which risks remaining without a clear opponent and face tough decissions in the middle of the elections, shall she leave.

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Shocking proposal by PSD for Senate Chairmanship

The proposal PSD made for the job of Senate Chairman left everyone surprised. Even tho many party bosses wanted the comfortable position, Viorica Dancila decided to nominate Former Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodor Melescanu of ALDE for the job. Melescanu remarked himself as Secretary for his failures: he twice managed to botch the diaspora voting process, forcing the people to sit hours in line - and some didn't even get to vote after all this times, he also allowed Dragnea to move the Embassy to Jerusalem without any comments, and supported Vladimir Plahotniuc against Maia Sandu in Moldova. This nomination shows how desperate Dancila is to take a part of ALDE on her side - it remains to be seen wether it will work.

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Sorry for no update during the last 2 days - I was very busy, but I am getting back on track today

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What happened in the last few days

Iohannis rejected Dancila's proposals for acting Ministers, accusing her of blocking the activity of the government and said that the only solution is for her to go to the Parliament to take o vote of confidence or no confidence. Dancila threatened to contest the decision to the pro-PSD Constitutional Court, however the Constitution is so clear on this that is hard to see how Dancila's appeal can be accepted.

Meanwhile, Dancila is trying hard to build a majority for herself in the Parliament, by attempting to form a coalition with UDMR and other national minorities as well as break ALDE in pieces. However, UDMR refused any deal and Tariceanu is holding his Party together better than expected, despite PM's desperate attempts at seducing its members with important jobs.

Barna was re-elected as USR Chairman and also candidate to the presidency. 65% of members voted for his re-election and only 31% for his main challenger, Cosette Chirchirau.

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ALDE in turmoil, PNL and Iohannis attack PSD

ALDE seems to finally break under PSD's attempts: some leaders attacked the decission to leave PSD for Pro Romania, especially as Tariceanu never got to be candidate anyway. They said the decission was taken by a few persons in the leadership with no consultation inside the party. Melescanu, the one proposed by PSD to be Senate Chairman, was excluded from the party after he took the offer and refused to back ALDE's candidate, Ion Popa. He responded by attacking Tariceanu in a blistering interview.

PNL and the President attacked Dancila today, PNL calling on her to come to the Parliament as soon as possible rather than endlessly delaying the vote, while Iohannis called her proposal to not allow any student with bad grades at the end of primary school to go to high school but to rather go to professional schools as a proposal of segregation.

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Today was a big day in Romania: Viorica Dancila finally decided that she will come next week to ask for renewed confidence from the Parliament but said she will not leave the Government even if she loses the vote, as in a weird way of interpreting the Constitution, the fact that the Parliament does not renew its confidence now, it doesn't mean it cancels the confidence it gave her back when she was validated as PM in 2018. This vision, if accepted by the Constitutional Court, will just prolong the sh**tshow, and the opposition would just have to put a motion of no confidence forwards, which if passed will finally throw Dancila and her party out of government.

Rovana Plumb, the women who said Romania is Dragnea's, was sent today as the Romanian proposal for European Commissar, however due to her many controversies I detailed in an earlier post. She is very unlikely to pass the European Parliament due to doubts on her integrity and competence. The 2nd proposal would be, according to the media, Ramona Manescu, the Foreign Affairs Minister and Dancila's shopping friend, as well as the only ALDE Minister which chose to betray and stay with PSD. The young lady is, according to numerous investigations, also involved in schemes of land ceding frauds. It seems like Dancila is proposing only the best and brightest Romania has to occupy this position...

Senate Chairmanship election are happening tommorow and PSD continues to back ALDE defector Teodor Melescanu for the job. ALDE proposed Ion Popa, who is likely backed by Pro Romania too, while PNL, UDMR and PMP are backing Alina Gorghiu. Unlikely anyone will reach a majority tomorrow.

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So sorry, Atlas was not working for me the past days. Long story short: PSD elected Melescanu as Senate Chairman and seems to have outplayed ALDE. They nominated ALDE betrayers  for the vacant Secretary positions and are poised to ensure a majority for themselves by absorbing ALDE MPs.

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President Iohannis rejected to appoint the newly proposed Ministers, saying Dancila is just trying to buy a few more weeks in government, and he will not be part of it. This starts a governmental crisis in Romania, which will probably be solved only by the people at the presidential election, like happened in 2009.

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Anyone still reading this?

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ALDE is imploding right now: Viorica Dancila is attempting to take as many of its MPs as possible, while Tariceanu threatens everyone who takes the sweet jobs the PM proposes with exclusions. Depending on how many MPs stay with Tariceanu or leave for PSD, the fate of the Cabinet will be decided. The destiny of this party seems to be a split in 2 wings: one to join PSD and one to join Pro Romania.

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Dancila proposed a "Deal to ensure the wellbeing of Romanians" to be signed by all parliamentary parties - making them pledge they will not cut the pensions and wages PSD raised. This was criticised as an electoral move by many, PNL and USR-PLUS saying they will sign the deal if Dancila resigns, and Ponta, who becomes more of a Facebook troll with every passing day, has published the e-mail he recieved with the deal, which came from an adress belonging to "Liviu Dragnea's Chief of Staff".

Iohannis had a big rally in Constanta, in which he attacked PSD and Dancila, calling their tenure "the most disatreous since the revolution", and expressed full confidence in PNL's ability to take over once Dancila is gone. He also said he supports Ludovic Orban, a non-personality who somehow ended up PNL Chairman, as Prime Minister. Good luck to get USR and/or ProRomania-ALDE to agree to that!

ALDE continues its path to certain implosion. Gratiela Gavrilescu, former Environment Secretary and ALDE betrayer to take her old job she resigned from a few weeks ago back, caused controversies by saying everything the ALDE Leadership decided during the last weeks, including withdrawing from the government and endorsing Diaconu, are ilegal, despite she herself voting for them. She was quickly excluded from the party, however many organisations took her side.

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Plumb has been soundly rejected in committee, as predicted, but what happens now? If the proposed ministers have not been appointed, is there a government that can nominate Ramona Manescu?

I am not sure Ramona Manescu will be nominated now. There are rumors that she helped misinform Romanian EU officials that the Romanian government is unofficially supporting Kovesi - and I doubt PSD will get over such allegations, even if they are false. Dan Nica might be a more likely option. As for answering your question, I think that as long as Dancila is Prime Minister - she can nominate someone else.

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I don't think Dan Nica is that much more palatable than Crumb, plus it also disturbs the gender balance that is supposed to be a highlight of the von der Leyen Commission, so his nomination would pretty much be designed to placate the PSD base, leaving the actual filling of the position to the next government. I am hearing that Luminiţa Odobescu has been asked to step into the breach and she might actually be confirmable, what do you think?

EU legislation says that the nomination of the Commissioners is the prerogative of the 'governments' of the states. Bulgarian law, at least, is pretty clear that the government is a collective body, so I was wondering if the vacancies make a nomination impossible, but it seems that you have a different situation.

From now until the presidential elections at the very least I do not expect nominations from Dancila that can disturb the PSD apparatus. It is a known secret why Plumb was nominated in the first place: she contributed massively to the party's EU campaign financialy due to criminal Dragnea's promise to nominate her as EU Commissar and any backtrack of it, even as the one who made the promise is now serving his rightful punishment, would scare donors away from giving any money to Dancila's campaign, afraid of having the same fate as Plumb. Luminita Odobescu would be a very controversial nomination inside the party due to her vote for Kovesi, disregarding Dancila's indications in the favor of the ones of President Iohannis. So yes, I think Dancila will pick Dan Nica for the position, altho she could go with Ramona Manescu without a massive backlash from PSD. The other political forces also had some proposals (USR proposed MP Catalin Drula and Ponta proposed fmr Commissar Corina Cretu) but they won't be listened to.

On the thing about Dancila's ability to nominate people - as a vote in the Parliament has yet to take place, Dancila and her government did not lose their mandate to fully execute their attributions until such a vote takes place, regardless of the vacancies.

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The no confidence vote is on Thursday, so what are the chances it does not pass?

As to the EU commission, Nica was indeed nominated, but does not have the proverbial snowball's chance to be confirmed. Melania-Gabriela Ciot is apparently the 'reserve' nominee, and while I hardly know anything about her, I'd expect the next government will have a nominee of their own, but feel free to correct me.

I have never ever heard of Gabriela Ciot either, and she is the definition of a dark horse, probably an available compromise if the war with Bruxelles becomes too expensive to maintain. And yes, if the next government is not headed by Dancila-PSD, Ciot and Nica would certainly not be their nominees, but would be withdrawn.

About the motion of no confidence, I'd rate the odds of it not passing at 10%, just because our MPs can easily be bought off, but otherwise the majority is clear.

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Motion of no confidence has been passed:

Confidence: 4 (lol)
No confidence: 238
Abstentions: 223

Yeah, basically PSD forbid all of their MPs from voting to ensure they do not betray once they're in the privacy of expressing their vote, hence why all of the absentions. Now the formation of a new government will be very difficult (as you might assume given how tight the no confidence vote was). I view 3 scenarios: PSD-Ponta majority coalition, PNL minority government (maybe including UDMR, ALDE and PMP) or snap elections, however the snap elections can not be achieved in a simple process, the Parliament needs to reject another 2 PM nominees for it to happen, and that might be tricky

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Klaus Iohannis nominates Ludovic Orban, the president of PNL, as the candidate for the PM of Romania.

What a dumb move. Orban is an empty suit, and a former PSD fan until it became cool not to be one. Honestly, I can not see what political platform can unite PNL, USR-PLUS, Pro, ALDE, UDMR and PMP. I'd deem the chances of him failing to win the confidence vote at 75%. The differences are just too big between the 6 parties, especially on judicial legislation, where ALDE is a valiant supporter of the Dragnea reforms, while the other parties are fanatically against them (except Pro and UDMR who are a bit vague), and the election of Mayors in 2 rounds, a proposal of USR-PLUS opposed by UDMR. But probably it'd be better for non-PSD parties if Orban fails the vote - if he suceeds, he will lead a very troubled government, which will open the door for a Pheonix-like comeback of PSD in 2020.

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  Aren't we avoiding the big question here, can Europe survive having not one, but two Orbans as prime ministers?

Thankfully they're not alike XD. We've been ruled by a dumber Orban until a few months ago tho

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Street interviews after Dancila failed, with English subtitles, if anyone is interested:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIBkEG8pXDw