Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

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Yes, I recall accounts of how the RCP was both the biggest ruling party in the former Eastern bloc *and* the least "ideological". Presumably it was a bit more orthodox Marxist/Leninist in the pre-Ceausescu days?

It went basically like this -

1947-1953 - full-pledged Stalinism
1953-1965 - more toned-down Stalinism
1965-1971 - a more open, relaxed version of Communism
1971-1989 - the nationalist and not really communist ideology I referenced

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From May 15th, Romania will, more or less, reopen. There will still be some restrictions, as for trips outside the town/village you reside in. But the severe lockdown we have been under will soon be over.

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BCS Poll -

For Parliament

PNL - 33%
PSD - 23%
USR-PLUS - 22%
PMP - 7%
UDMR - 5%
ProRomania - 5%
ALDE - 1%
Green Party - 1%

For Mayorships

PNL - 33%
PSD - 25%
USRPLUS - 20%
UDMR - 6%
PMP - 5%
ProRomania - 5%
ALDE - 2%
Green Party - 1%

Approval ratings of politicians -

President Iohannis - 43%
Margareta, Custodian of the Crown - 31%
Former President Basescu - 29%
Former Prime Minister Ciolos - 27%
Bucharest Mayor Firea - 26%
Prime Minister Orban - 24%
Former Prime Minister Ponta - 23%
Green Party Chair Florin Calinescu - 22%
Former Education Secretary Ecaterina Andronescu - 22%
USR Chair Dan Barna - 22%
Foreign Affairs Secretary Bogdan Aurescu - 21%
MP Rares Bogdan - 20%
Justice Secretary Catalin Predoiu - 19%
Former Foreign Affairs Secretary Cristian Diaconescu - 18%
Economy Secretary Virgil Popescu - 17%
Former Prime Minister Tariceanu - 17%
Former USR Chair Nicusor Dan - 16%
Education Secretary Monica Anisie - 16%
PSD Chair Marcel Ciolacu - 16%
Deputy PM Raluca Turcan - 15%
UDMR Chair Kelemen Hunor - 15%
MP Claudiu Nasui - 14%
MP Paul Stanescu - 13%
Former Prime Minister Dancila - 13%
Former Health Secretary Banicioiu - 12%

Well, that was a lot. Also this poll shows the party vote on all demographic categories. If you are interested in knowing the results on any of them please let me know

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INSCOP poll (ordered by ProRomania) -

PNL - 39%
PSD - 26%
USR PLUS - 10%
ProRomania - 9%
UDMR - 6%
PMP - 4%
ALDE - 4%

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New IMAS poll -
 
PNL - 33%
PSD - 25%
USR-PLUS - 16%
ProRomania - 8%
UDMR - 6%
ALDE - 4%
PMP - 3%

The threshold for entering the Parliament is 5%.

IMAS released a new poll today. It looks like this -

PNL - 33%
PSD - 23%
USRPLUS - 17%
ProRomania - 11%
UDMR - 5%
ALDE - 4%
PMP - 4%

Also the Avangarde poll -

PNL - 35%
PSD - 29%
USRPLUS - 13%
ProRomania - 6%
UDMR - 5%
ALDE - 4%
PMP - 4%

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https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1273552317791514624
So what’s the deal with this; who brought it up and voted on it and will Iohannis veto it like I’m hearing people say?

In case it is not clear from the tweet, the bill is forbidding schools from bringing up during classes the gender identity theory, or any opinion that gender is different from biological sex. Weirdly, a random, previously unknown PMP Senator brought it up. Whether he came up with this idiotic proposal on his own, out of wanting to make a name for himself or just out of sheer social conservatism or he was taking orders from someone with more influence is unknown. Anyway, PSD, who leads the Senate, took this bill and put it on the agenda 30 minutes before the session, as to prevent widespread protests. They have done that because they are hoping to have the Orthodox Church on their side as a major get-out-the-vote operation for the 2020 election. There is a widespread myth that the Romanian Orthodox Church is the one that decides who wins elections in Romania. My view is that its impact is overestimated, but that is another discussion. Now, PSD voted for it, as well as PMP. PNL abstained and USR, UDMR voted against. USR and UDMR are both parties who will never be supported by the Church, so that is why they took this stance, and PNL did not want to offend either the Church or the liberal towns (or Iohannis).

Now, the President can not actually veto anything in Romania, he can only send the bill back once for re-examination (basically a way to stall it). If the Parliament does not modify it, he can then send it to the Constitutional Court for examination. However, the Constitutional Court is filled with Pro-PSD partisan judges, so do not expect too much from it. If it says it is constitutional, Iohannis has to sign the bill. The game here is up to whether the bill can draw so much backlash as Iohannis stalls for time that PSD sees itself as forced to back down.

Sorry for this long post lol

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While Romania and the entire world are in a battle against COVID-19, another battle takes place in Bucharest, where its mayoral election (which was supposed to happen in early June but was delayed to late September) will decide a lot in Romanian politics.

Gabriela Firea, the current Bucharest Mayor and former news anchor, is fighting for her political future and her overwhelming desire and unique dream in life to become the leader of PSD. After she failed in 2018 to overthrow Dragnea and in 2019 to get Dancila to give her the Presidential nomination, 2020 seems like her big chance. Ciolacu, the incumbent leader, is likely to get elected to a full term at the PSD Congress in July, however the party is likely to lose a lot of Mayors and get under 30% of the vote, especially as a lot of its local officeholders have suddenly discovered their sympathies towards PNL now that it is governing. So, after a catastrophic result, Firea could emerge as the leader to rebuild the party in time for the December crucial Parliamentary election, but there is a big but - she needs to also win in Bucharest.

Her Administration there has been plagued with corruption and incompetence, spending hundreds of thousands on absurd projects such as useless festivals, the so-called decorating of the city and huge donations to the Church, while Bucharest was plagued with all kinds of issues. Meanwhile, almost all of her promises from 2016 remain just that - promises. That of course makes her deeply unpopular in Bucharest, except among core PSD supporters, but they are not enough to win in a big city. And she faces another problem - PNL, USR-PLUS and PMP have nominated an unique candidate - Nicusor Dan, the USR founder, preventing catastrophic vote-splitting that would get her re-elected in the one-round election. It is my estimation that she would lose by 15% in an election with only a moderate turnout. So, she is getting desperate. She literally sent garbage trucks and water cannons at press conferences of her rival, as well as trying to block him from speaking by using a closet. She also got into a big scandal related to COVID tests, calling on thousands of people to gather on a stadium to be tested and then accusing the PNL government that they were somehow at fault for people not showing up. Yeah...

All of this circus must be pretty worrying for PSD District Mayors (they also won all District Mayorships in 2016), which face somewhat better odds than Firea to be re-elected, but need her to do at least a decent job in order not to sink them with her.

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The number of new COVID 19 cases is exploding in Romania, from about 200 in May to 600 now daily. The problems seem to come from Bucharest, because it and its surrounding areas account for 70% of the new cases. People in the capital went in droves to the mountain resorts up north, causing outbreaks in the counties which hosted them and in others. One of those is unfortunately the county I live in, which has now a huge outbreak, the second largest in the country, caused by both the said mountain resorts and a center for people with disabilities in which about 106 people were infected. My home town is also affected, with entire neighborhoods being under lockdown and the Police making routine controls in all places to ensure the rules are being respected. New relaxation measures, which were supposed to happen on July 15 were cancelled, and there are even discussions of a new nationwide lockdown. Even as we avoided a dire situation in March (quite an accomplishment actually, given that 2 million Romanians came home from countries like Italy or Spain), it seems like the virus is still looming over us.

Also, new IMAS poll - PNL 33%, PSD 22%, USR-PLUS 18%, ProRomania 11%, PMP 5%, ALDE 4%, UDMR 3%. This is quite a disappointing result for PSD, which remains stuck at 22% (the 2019 result) despite all of its desperate efforts to sabotage PNL and its response to the pandemic. The behavior of the so-called party has been abhorrent, even by the incredibly low standards I have for it. It repeatedly tried to overthrow the government and remove all safety measures by using the Parliament. Even as its attempts were unsuccessful, the Constitutional Court that it controlled still did massive damage by deeming forced quarantine as unconstitutional (causing 600 people infected with Coronavirus to roam free at the moment) and cancelling fines for breaking the lockdown rules.

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While Romania and the entire world are in a battle against COVID-19, another battle takes place in Bucharest, where its mayoral election (which was supposed to happen in early June but was delayed to late September) will decide a lot in Romanian politics.

Gabriela Firea, the current Bucharest Mayor and former news anchor, is fighting for her political future and her overwhelming desire and unique dream in life to become the leader of PSD. After she failed in 2018 to overthrow Dragnea and in 2019 to get Dancila to give her the Presidential nomination, 2020 seems like her big chance. Ciolacu, the incumbent leader, is likely to get elected to a full term at the PSD Congress in July, however the party is likely to lose a lot of Mayors and get under 30% of the vote, especially as a lot of its local officeholders have suddenly discovered their sympathies towards PNL now that it is governing. So, after a catastrophic result, Firea could emerge as the leader to rebuild the party in time for the December crucial Parliamentary election, but there is a big but - she needs to also win in Bucharest.

Her Administration there has been plagued with corruption and incompetence, spending hundreds of thousands on absurd projects such as useless festivals, the so-called decorating of the city and huge donations to the Church, while Bucharest was plagued with all kinds of issues. Meanwhile, almost all of her promises from 2016 remain just that - promises. That of course makes her deeply unpopular in Bucharest, except among core PSD supporters, but they are not enough to win in a big city. And she faces another problem - PNL, USR-PLUS and PMP have nominated an unique candidate - Nicusor Dan, the USR founder, preventing catastrophic vote-splitting that would get her re-elected in the one-round election. It is my estimation that she would lose by 15% in an election with only a moderate turnout. So, she is getting desperate. She literally sent garbage trucks and water cannons at press conferences of her rival, as well as trying to block him from speaking by using a closet. She also got into a big scandal related to COVID tests, calling on thousands of people to gather on a stadium to be tested and then accusing the PNL government that they were somehow at fault for people not showing up. Yeah...

All of this circus must be pretty worrying for PSD District Mayors (they also won all District Mayorships in 2016), which face somewhat better odds than Firea to be re-elected, but need her to do at least a decent job in order not to sink them with her.

As an update - both ProRomania and PMP seem to betray their supposed alliances. This will likely hurt Firea even more. Also is anyone still reading this? And are there any subjects in particular that you would be interested in hearing about?

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I very much enjoy your coverage of Romanian politics and hope you will keep posting, especially in the run-up to the elections. You guys seem to be a few steps ahead of us - just in the past few days Sofia has seen the same type of protests that united the disparate Romanian opposition factions back in 2018.

Also, a question: how powerful is the Bucharest mayor in comparison to the general council and/or the district mayors? Has there been a time when the mayor and the council were at odds and what happened then?

Great news! I hope Bulgaria will come out at least somewhat better out of these tensions just like we have. The post-communist establishment and its strength is certainly crumbling in a lot of countries.

Related to the Bucharest mayor, he IS powerful, but not THAT powerful. Bucharest is actually governed by a bloated bureaucracy, but think of it as a country government on a smaller scale. The Bucharest mayor is like the Prime Minister and the leader of the Executive branch, while the General Council is a Parliament. The mayor can change the way institutions act, but he can not implement projects of his own without the approval of the council. If they are opposed to each other, gridlock is the most likely outcome. The problem is smaller with district mayors, because they only have authority in their respective districts and the council/General Mayor can overrule their authority anyway, as well as it is in both of the District Mayors and General Mayors best interest to work together, because if nothing gets done, citizens will blame both of them.

There were 2 cases of the mayor and the council being at odds - the first in 2000-2004, and the second in 2008-2012. Basically nothing got done (not something unusual for Bucharest), the Mayor and Councilmen screamed about and sometimes at each other on live TV and the gridlock was as clear as day. Until now these situations have benefited the Mayors, who then have an excuse about their utter inability to do anything, and backfired on the Council (i.e. the unknown, shady establishment who was not elected directly and tries to stop the Mayor for political gain).

I hope this cleared things up!

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Alright probably no one is interested in seeing this but I am bored soo

The explained list of Bucharest Mayors lol

1. Dan Predescu (FSN) - 20.10.1990-23.07.1990

Until the 1992 local election, all Mayors were appointed by the government. Dan Predescu was the first mayor of Bucharest. He was sacked after his administration of the city was widely deemed as poor. He moved to America almost immediately after.

2. Stefan Ciurel (FSN) - 24.07.1990-16.11.1990

The second Mayor of Bucharest, he tried to get the city back on track after Predescu failed to do anything, however the Government was still unhappy with his reforms, especially related to the healthcare system and the environment (at least officially). He was thrown out of office as well.

3. Nicolae Viorel Oproiu (FSN) - 18.11.1990-02.09.1991

The third mayor of Bucharest in less than 2 years, Nicolae Viorel Oproiu focused on helping the population to live decently through the winter. He was sacked, presumably out of his public unpopularity due to his connections with the former Communist leadership.

4. Doru Viorel Pana (FSN) - 03.09.1991-23.02.1992

A former Minister in the Roman Cabinet, he was appointed Mayor of Bucharest in September 1991 and managed to stay in office until the 1992 election finally happened. I was not able to find much about his tenure.

5. Crin Halaicu (CDR) - 23.02.1992-16.06.1996, together with 6 CDR District Mayors

The instability of the FSN administration of Bucharest, as well as the unpopularity of both Iliescu in Roman in the city led to a sweep, with both the Mayorship and the 6 District Mayors being won by the CDR. Halaicu defeated his FSN opponent by 15% both in the first and in the second round. His management is widely seen as incompetent and one of the causes of the problems Bucharest in facing today. He did not run for reelection in order for CDR to have a chance.

6. Victor Ciorbea (CDR) - 16.06.1996-12.12.1996, together with 5 CDR D.M. and 1 CDR-leaning independent

The extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness of the Halaicu Mayorship was ignored by Bucharest in exchange for a middle finger to Ion Iliescu, causing Victor Ciorbea to be elected by a 15% margin against his PDSR (PSD) opponent. He did not get to serve as Mayor for long, as he was appointed Prime Minister in December, however he held to his official position as Mayor until March 1998, causing a lot of controversies.

7. Viorel Lis (CDR until March 1999, PNGCD afterwards) - acting Mayor in the period 12.12.1996-10.11.1998, Mayor in the period 10.11.1998-26.06.2000

Viorel Lis was appointed Acting Mayor after Victor Ciorbea became Prime Minister, and was elected to the office after Ciorbea finally resigned. He only won by 50.5% against the PSD candidate Sorin Oprescu, showing the growing unpopularity of both Lis and the CDR. In March 1999 he left PNTCD in order to form a new party called the New Generation Party. He had a colorful personal life and an inability to get anything done, and that backfired during the 2000 election, when he only got 2% in the first round. His weird personal life made him reality show star after he was removed from office.

8. Traian Basescu (PD) - 26.06.2000-21.12.2004, together with 6 PSD D.M.

This is certainly the biggest upset in a Bucharest election. Basescu managed to defeat the very strong PSD, which nominated Sorin Oprescu again, as well as all of the other right wing parties, even as PD was weak, especially in Bucharest. He over performed in both rounds, first by getting the second place against the very well funded and known CDR candidate and then by narrowly beating Oprescu who seemed unstoppable by the start of the campaign. It is widely believed that his charisma and anti establishment rhetoric was the cause of it. His tenure was marked by conflicts with the Nastase/PSD Government, the PSD District Mayors, the PSD-controlled General Council and the press which was largely affiliated with PSD, especially related to his efforts to get rid of illegal shops and abandoned dogs. The Bucharest sided with its charismatic Mayor over the PSD which was perceived as corrupt and dictatorial. He ran under an Alliance of PD and PNL and was reelected in a landslide against Mircea Geoana, who will also lose to Basescu in the 2009 presidential. During this election, 4 of the 6 PSD District Mayors were replaced by the PD-PNL Alliance  and they gained a majority in the Council. Basescu resigned after he was elected President later that year.

9. Razvan Murgeanu (PD) - Acting Mayor in the period 23.12.2004-03.04.2005

After Basescu resigned, Razvan Murgeanu was appointed to be Acting Mayor until new elections could be called. During the 2004-2008 term there were 2 PD District Mayors, 2 PNL and 2 PSD.

10. Adriean Videanu (PD/PDL) - 03.05.2005-18.06.2008

He was elected in a landslide as the PD-PNL Alliance candidate given the popularity of Basescu and of the new government. His tenure was a disaster, both for Bucharest and for PDL. He was involved in corruption scandals, worsened many problems Bucharest faced, especially the traffic one and made the Bucharest Hall look like a corrupt organization led by PDL and their donors. This did long term damage to the popularity of the presidential party, especially in Bucharest, where they were very strong before. He did not run for reelection

11. Sorin Oprescu (PSD-backed independent) - 18.06.2008-15.09.2015 with 3 PSD D.M., 2 PDL and 1 PNL

PSD refused to nominate Sorin Oprescu for the third time, so he ran as an independent, quickly taking away many votes from the social democrats as he was more well known and more charismatic than the PSD candidate. With PDL shattered by the Videanu Administration, Oprescu won a competitive but not close election. He was however confronted with a PDL Council. His inability to accomplish anything and his failed presidential bid in 2009 seemed to make him an one term Mayor, however the PDL having to take austerity measures as well as the PSD-PNL Alliance backing him made his reelection a sure thing. The fact that his main opponent was a controversial reality show star helped as well. In the 2012 election, both PDL District Mayors lost as well, making PSD-PNL fully control Bucharest. He continued to fail at doing anything until September 2015, when he got arrested for corruption.

12. Stefanel Dan Marin (UNPR) - Acting Mayor in the period 15.09.2015-24.11.2015

He was appointed Acting Mayor after Oprescu got arrested. He was sacked after less than 2 months by PNL, which probably wanted to appoint its own candidate.

13. Razvan Sava (PNL) - Acting Mayor in the period 24.11.2015-05.06.2016

After PNL had thrown the former Mayor out of office, they appointed Razvan Sava in his place. He governed as a lame duck until the 2016 election

14. Gabriela Firea (PSD) - 05.06.2016-present, together with 6 PSD D.M.

She was the first Mayor to get elected by the system without a second round. PSD benefited greatly from it, as it managed to gain full control over the city for the first time. Needless to say, the PSD Administration is not too popular. It did not nothing to solve the big problems in the city but donated hundreds of thousands to the Orthodox Church and to cultural events, as well as being plagued by corruption. They are heading as the underdogs in the election, and the outcome will likely decide the future of PSD and of Firea.

Hope anyone found this interesting, I was too bored not to do it lol

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So the TLDR version is "they've mostly been rubbish"?

Yeah, I did that out of extreme boredom

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Also an interesting development happened in Bucharest, dooming Firea even more -

The popular PSD Mayor of District 3 (he is very corrupt, but people seem to desperately want him reelected regardless) refuses to run under the PSD banner and seems to have decided upon an alliance with ProRomania. Many popular mayors elected as PSD candidates seem to refuse to run under their banner again, seeing that the Dragnea-Dancila era is still making the party toxic despite all of the attempts by its leadership to give it a fresh image. Some of them discovered a new found love for PNL, while others want to run as independents or from minor parties. Negoita, the mayor in question, is one of them. He decided not to risk losing due to the toxicity of the PSD, and formed a new minor party. However, it is almost certainly a ploy, and his plan is to ally with ProRomania and endorse Ponta (or whoever else runs) for Mayor.

Seemingly both Ponta and Negoita decided that it is in their best interest for Firea to lose. Ponta wants ProRomania to get a good start for the parliamentary election, and that involves PSD losing ground while PRO gets a decent result. Negoita wants to become the Bucharest Mayor in 2024 and it would obviously be easier with Firea out of the picture. This new development probably ends any odds Firea had at reelection. She was unlikely to win even with their blessing, but now she has less than a 5 in 100 chance in my view, which explains why she got desperate and had multiple rants on live TV in the last week.

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Alright, so a new update on Bucharest and its messy politics -

1. The right wing chaos

So, Nicusor Dan ended up being the candidate to unseat Firea by chance rather than by political talent. Let me explain - PNL had no visible candidate to avoid a repeat of the 2016 disaster. The only option was MEP Rares Bogdan, a former talk show host who is now a PNL politician. However, that would have been suicide for PM Orban, because Bogdan is obviously seeking to take over PNL and the Prime Minister office. Meanwhile, USR PLUS did not want to nominate Nicusor Dan, the USR founder, due to personal resentment, and was leaning towards nominating a man named Vlad Voiculescu. However, risking to be forced to back Voiculescu, PNL quickly announced that Nicusor Dan was its candidate, forcing USR to join and endorse him rather than facilitating another Firea term.

This forced scheme does not work for District Mayors however. Both parties claim that they were unfairly stripped of the opportunity to nominate a Bucharest Mayor candidate that they would have liked and thus should get most District Mayors. Their criteria of selection are also different - PNL wants to win at any cost and is willing to back dubious candidates - as showed by the fact that it was willing to accept many corrupt PSD mayors in its ranks. USR prefers to propose losing but moral candidates as that would create its image of a different party and would mobilize urban voters before the Parliamentary. This is what the parties are fighting for related to the District Mayors. If the right wing parties do not have a common candidate, PSD would retain its DMs. If they do, PNL and USR would win likely 4 out of 6.

2. The left wing chaos

PSD was quite happy seeing the right wingers bicker, however once Ponta came around, it was all over. As I said in previous posts, ProRomania wants to run Ponta for Bucharest Mayor, so it can raise its profile for the parliamentary election. At this point, the chances of Ponta, Firea and their parties to reach an agreement is about 5%, so not much.

What will happen -

If ProRomania does not endorse Firea after all, Nicusor Dan wins in a landslide. Even if Ponta renounces and submits to the PSD will, Firea is still the underdog. What it would take for a Firea win would be both a ProRo endorsement and an USR sabotage towards her opponent.

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Lol @the English Wikipedia entry history of Gabriela Fiera (basically 10 days unchanged):

Gabriela Firea (born Gabriela Vrânceanu, 13 July 1972) is a Romanian journalist, politician and full time clown, who currently serves as mayor of Bucharest.

At the June 2016 local election, Firea was elected the first female mayor of Bucharest.[1] She won 43% from the total of only 33% that went to vote. Her closest challengers, Nicușor Dan (Save Bucharest Union) and Cătălin Predoiu (National Liberal Party), won 30.5% and 11.2% respectively.[2] As a mayor she failed successfully in the public administration of Bucharest.

They are not wrong tho.

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On Monday, the government has attacked a bill which raised the jail time for sexual crimes with a minor and cancelled their limitation time at the Constitutional Court, with the reason that it discriminates the offenders.

In June, Romania was horrified by the acts of Ion Turnagiu, a serial rapist who was released on probation in 2019, as he raped a 17 year old girl and then burned her in her own house.

To respond to the people who were revolted that this could happen, the House quickly passed a bill which prohibited release on probation of criminals who committed, among other things, rape or sexual relationships with a minor. The project was contested at the Constitutional Court by the High Court of Cassation and Justice and it will most likely be cancelled on the reason of unconstitutionality.

Another proposal, this time of independent Representative Oana Bizgan, raised the minimal punishment time for sexual crimes. For example, raping a minor would cause 7-12 years of jail, compared to 5-12 as it is now. The proposal also would also cancel the limitation time. The project passed in the House, however 3 days before it became law, the government contested it at the Constitutional Court, saying that it raises some constitutionality problems, such as the lack of limitation time.

In its current form, even with the proposed modifications, the laws seem to assume that a minor under 14 years old could give consent. And this is reflected on how they are judged as well. According to some investigations by civic organization, 75% of such cases with child victims are judged as consented acts, granting smaller punishments for the offenders. Even worse, the judges and other high ranking officials in the judicial system seem to actually think that a child can consent or provoke such a crime against him or her. It was the case of a 11 year old girl assaulted by a 52 years old man. The judge decided that the victim could have informed the abuser that she did not want to do it, the prosecutor considered that it was not proofed without a shadow of a doubt that the complainant did not consent and the Court decided that the so-called provocative clothes of the victim were relevant. Because of this case, Romania was condemned by CEDO, but nothing changed ever since. Even the Attorney General expressed her genial opinion that a 13 year old can consent.

So right now, hundreds of pedophiles are being sentenced to no jail time, many are released on probation after actually doing very little of their sentence and 75% of cases are being considered consented acts. This is to show how far Romania is culturally and mentally from the civilized world.

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Alright so last week I talked a bit about PNL and the problems it has and afterwards I have dumbly deleted that, I will try to look it up to see if it still is somewhere on my computer and post it again. Now, I will talk about PSD -

PSD has no new ideas, hope or energy nor can it even pretend that it has them. Now, in the lowest point in its entire history, the party has been taken over by mediocrity and lack of perspective. The much-anticipated process of it dying off has started.

And what is even sadder, no one can save it. There is a need of a competent team to lead it, but the party can not even find 15 people competent enough to be Ministers. The lack of human resources is a crisis lurking in the shadows for decades and ignored by the party leader for just as long. Now, it is visible and blowing in their faces. Most County Chairmen display a shocking lack of logic, grammar, writing abilities or knowledge, permanently feeding the other parties with gaffes to make fun of. PSD has no prepared Mayors to take on to the national scene, and preparing them would take time and interest, both of which are something PSD lacks. The youth organization is dead, the politicians with different visions are thrown away into the background. Most of these issues were compensated by the so-called PSD base. However, demographic changes are happening extremely fast in Romania, and they have started to slowly destroy the formerly powerful base. And most of the urban centers have kicked out their PSD mayors, while the ones standing will probably switch to PNL or lose their jobs in September. They will soon find themselves having thousands of mayors, but all of them in rural areas, depleted by the migration to both Romanian cities and foreign countries and with their remaining population dying off.

It is true, PSD had similar hard times through the past. But both in 1996 and in 2009 they were saved by the economic crises throwing their opponents into the dustbin of history and in 2016 it was only because PNL was incompetent that they secured their position in government. Even if PNL were to fall in a similar manner as CDR and PDL (which is a very plausible scenario) PSD would still have a massive problem - it has no one to ally with. It is very hard to believe that it will reach over 45% of the vote to govern only with the national minorities. So who could they ally with? Both PNL and USR-PLUS know it would bring death and destruction upon their parties to ally with them. PMP is led by Basescu, one of the arch-enemies of the PSD propaganda. ALDE is not even sure to survive the next years and if it does, it could easily ally with PNL. UDMR is unpopular among the nationalists supporting PSD. So yeah, alliance options are hard to find...

PSD also has a very big rival for its own propaganda, economic and political connections and machines. Victor Ponta is slowly taking away more and more of the party and what it used to control. There are still four years until 2024, will PRO be over PSD by then?

We still do not know that, but history clearly shows that PSD as a group has no strategic mind. As if to show that to everyone, it decided to position itself on the social far right of the incoming ideological war exactly when leftist culture and ideas were starting to emerge. Soon enough, the debates in Romania will be about air quality, the relationship between corporations and communities, the crisis of the Romani community, the access of poor communities to internet, the taxation of Big Tech and so on, so on. PSD has no idea what to do about these issues. If these debates are truly coming (and I am pretty sure about it), PSD would only be able to watch them and from time to time say national-communist slogans ignored by everyone. On this route, it would slowly become a frustrated nationalist party able to make noise but not able to ever get out of the opposition status that the other parties had isolated it to.

The other path would be a slow collapse of the party. The former feuds of the party are escaping its grip. The PSD dominance in Moldova is over. Muntenia is getting there. What if Oltenia will also decide to get rid of its dominance, just like the other regions did? Would there even exist anymore or would all of its politicians just migrate to PNL or PRO? Both of these paths are very likely, but one thing is for sure - the future is bleak.

(alright so I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as much as I enjoyed writing it. I will try to find the PNL post and put it back here, meanwhile I was going to do another update on Bucharest, it is all a mess there with alliances breaking left and right, but we will see. We have also received flyers from PSD and PNL for the local elections here (I am staying in a rural area for now) and I was thinking about writing them here to give you a sense of the campaign but they are just too boring.)

Have a nice day!

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Alright so 2 major things happened today -

1. USR and PLUS have voted to merge into a single party. This was probably expected, as their Alliance acted more and more like a single party and there were no major disagreements between the two parties, especially now that Ciolos is focusing on his career in the EU. However, there is a risk of this fusion being a similar fiasco as the PNL-PDL one, with the two former parties fighting between each other for years, but that is unlikely.

2. PSD has filed, once again, a motion of no confidence in the Orban Government, with the vote scheduled to take place in September. This idiotic action threatens to severely harm the ability of the government to deal with the pandemic, as Romania has seen a sharp rise in new cases, the biggest in Europe (even as the situation seems to be stabilizing in the more recent data). What is even worse, the motion is very likely to pass as PSD and its satellites have a majority in Parliament. Who governs until the elections in December is unknown. Orban can still hold his seat for 45 days, but after that, Iohannis has to appoint a new government. He has repeatedly rejected the possibility of a PSD-led government, or even one of which PSD is a part of. It is also likely for the President not to re-appoint PM Orban, as they are becoming increasingly displeased with each other. Probably, another PNL or PNL-led minority government will be appointed, as Ponta declared he could support a transition cabinet which is not led by Orban. (hopefully this paragraph makes sense lol)

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Alright so in my post about PSD I was basically saying that it is a party stuck in the past, with nothing to offer for the present or future. This is shown once again by their strategy in Bucharest. Mayor Gabriela Firea, because of whom the capital city (I repeat, the capital city) periodically remains without hot water (or even water at all), has proposed a rather...interesting list for the City Council. The first candidate on it is the former Prime Minister (in the early 1990s) Petre Roman, and it continues with football players who were famous in the late 1990s. This list looks as if it were taken from 20 years ago, and many joked that it was sent by fax and confirmed by telex. It is very clear who she is trying to get out and vote with this attempt of a list - the people who are by now at least 55 years old and will vote for the gold, old days represented by their idols. Quite a good move if you ask me, Bucharest is becoming more and more dominated by old people, especially when the youth/liberals do not feel motivated enough to vote (some could not do it anyway, as they are coming from around the country and still have their official residence in their natal areas)

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Petre Roman - there's a blast from the past all right.

Though hasn't he supported right wing parties/candidates in more recent years?

The truth probably is that ever since he stopped being relevant in the early 2000s, he supported parties willing to give him something in return.

[RGM2609]

Alright so in my post about PSD I was basically saying that it is a party stuck in the past, with nothing to offer for the present or future. This is shown once again by their strategy in Bucharest. Mayor Gabriela Firea, because of whom the capital city (I repeat, the capital city) periodically remains without hot water (or even water at all), has proposed a rather...interesting list for the City Council. The first candidate on it is the former Prime Minister (in the early 1990s) Petre Roman, and it continues with football players who were famous in the late 1990s. This list looks as if it were taken from 20 years ago, and many joked that it was sent by fax and confirmed by telex. It is very clear who she is trying to get out and vote with this attempt of a list - the people who are by now at least 55 years old and will vote for the gold, old days represented by their idols. Quite a good move if you ask me, Bucharest is becoming more and more dominated by old people, especially when the youth/liberals do not feel motivated enough to vote (some could not do it anyway, as they are coming from around the country and still have their official residence in their natal areas)

That is a good joke! I suppose the energy from the protests has fizzled out a bit, but haven't the youth/middle aged crowd learned their lesson from 2016 election about what happens when you let only the pensioners vote?

They did for the most part, which is why Firea is highly likely to lose. However -
1. Many of them do not officially reside in Bucharest, but in their natal areas, as the process to change official residences is pretty complicated. For them to vote in this election (as it is a local one), they would need some kind of a visa for which it is necessary to stay hours in line at Population Registry (PSD was not particularly interested to ease the process), so it is not just necessary to simply go to the polls.
2. Firea is actually pretty charismatic, and does not have the distasteful arrogance of most PSD leaders who were capable of mobilizing thousands against them by simply opening their mouth.
3. The problems faced by Bucharest led for a lot of people in the said categories to flee the city in favor of Transylvania, so pensioners are actually a large group as share of the population.
4. The right wing vote is split once again, as former President Basescu is also running.

Alright so given her incompetence and political situation, Firea is still likely to lose despite the factors mentioned above. However, mobilizing the old people is a good idea, as they are the only group that still supports her, and she is unlikely to get support from anywhere else.

Edit: Forgot to mention. Many pensioners are covid-19 deniers, which obviously makes them more likely to vote

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Alright so since nothing of note has happened today but I felt like posting something anyway, I will do a brief summary of the candidates in Bucharest and their career. Thankfully, there are only 7. Usually, there are over 15 candidates. I have no idea why this drop in their number, but at least there will be a lot less noise pollution. They are listed by the likelihood of a victory, in my view -

1. MP Nicusor Dan, supported by PNL and USR-PLUS. This is the third time he is running, as he also ran in 2012, when he finished third with 9%, and in 2016, when he finished second with 31%. He is a mathematician and civic activist, as he spent years fighting, largely successfully, against unlawful urban development. Following his very strong showing in the 2016 election, he formed USR based on his organization in Bucharest. However, he resigned from the leadership of the party following an internal war related to the referendum on gay marriage that he lost. But he managed to retain his popularity in Bucharest at least, so the 2 main anti-PSD parties felt forced to endorse him in order to prevent another 4 years of Firea. And now...

2. Mayor Gabriela Firea, supported by PSD and some minor parties. She was a journalist at the beginning of her career in the early 1990s, but made a name for herself in the 2000s, when she hosted talk shows at the television owned by pro-PSD oligarch Dan Voiculescu. She stopped touting PSD talking points on live TV and decided to do so in Parliament in 2012, when she was elected to the Senate. In the presidential election, she was selected to be the spokesperson for candidate Victor Ponta, a time during which she made a gross attack on Klaus Iohannis, accusing him of not being a real man and Romanian because he does not have children (Iohannis is genetically incapable of doing that). She was elected Mayor by the pensioners in 2016 and since then she was widely criticized for the shockingly bad traffic, the frequent lack of hot water and heat, spending millions on Churches and the so-called electoral charities as well as for other such things.

3. Former President and MEP Traian Basescu, backed by PMP. Attempting to write a full biography for him would be exhausting, however what is relevant to know here is that he was Mayor of Bucharest before he became President, he is unofficially presiding over PMP, a small right-wing conservative party and he is now trying to revive his political career. Given that he is not exactly popular to say the least and that he is running from a single-digits party, a victory is unlikely, however he may take enough votes away from the right wing to ensure another term of Firea. Something that is also relevant - a disastrous showing will end any chance of him getting back into the main scene and would also devastate PMP before the parliamentary election.

4. Former PM, Former Senate Chairman and MP Calin Popescu Tariceanu, backed by ALDE. Ugh. He might be one of the worst politicians post-Revolution. He is leading a small PSD satellite party which has been declining following its relentless support for the Dragnea Governments and its overthrow of the Dancila Government, which left it dissatisfying all people. The rise of ProRomania is also hurting it, and ALDE is very likely to be out of the Parliament in December. This run is just a desperate attempt to save the party, especially after negotiations with PSD for a joint list failed.

5. General Ioan Sirbu, backed by ProRomania. A dark horse candidate, who was a member of PNL until recently and occupied high ranking positions in the military hospitals, he is only running because Ponta decided not to risk getting in himself. His notoriety, as well as victory odds, do not exist.

There are also 2 candidates of minor parties I have never even heard of before, but I will mention them briefly -

6. Ilan Laufer, backed by the Social Liberal Platform and the Force of National Identity. Former PSD member who has been Minister and then advisor to Viorica Dancila, he has meanwhile left PSD and formed a new party.

7. Viorel Catarama, backed by the Movement of Romanian Patriots. He is a billionaire that keeps announcing candidacies for random high-ranking jobs. He always ends up either aborting the campaign or losing with less than 1% of the vote.

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I was reading up on Tariceanu, who I agree is one of your worst politicians, and wanted to confirm that my impression that ALDE is indistinguishable from him is correct? In general, other than PSD and PNL, is any of the parties non-personalist, i.e. it would get similar electoral results from a broadly similar coalition of voters even if its leader would drop dead tomorrow?

And speaking of dropping dead, I was wondering what happened to the PRM voters - I know the party still gets marginal support, as does PRU, and obviously PSD has adopted a lot of nationalist rhetoric - but by and large the 'far right' sector in Romanian politics seems oddly empty lately.

Well, in regards to the question on the parties - USR and UDMR would probably get similar results without their leaders. Their voters are supporting them for reasons completely unrelated to their leaders. In theory, PMP would also do fine without its formal leader, but it would have a hard time without its informal one. But yeah, ALDE and ProRomania are entirely dependent on their leaders. If they would be gone, their members would probably just return to PSD.

On PRM voters - most of the older ones died by now. Some young fanatics grew up and dropped nationalism. The rest are supporting PSD, as do most of its former politicians. But far right nationalism, or national-communism, has a tendency to backfire spectacularly on the ones who openly use it. The majority of Romania wants a more modern, more liberal society and rhetoric against that can mobilize it to the polls in great numbers.

Also, there is news from PSD these days. A Congress will happen in a few days, and the current leader Marcel Ciolacu will probably easily dismantle a challenge from the Finance Minister under Viorica Dancila, Eugen Teodorovici. And many in PSD Bucharest are not that happy about Firea taking off politicians from the list and replacing them with public personalities. I can only imagine what Iliescu thought when he saw Roman on that list lol

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Alright so PSD and its allies are desperately trying to send the Orban Government packing, however the way they are doing it may be stopped by the Constitutional Court. Namely, they are trying to propose the motion in an extraordinary session, a thing that is probably forbidden under current laws. However, the Constitutional Court has gone a long way to satisfy PSD in the past, such as when it ruled that the signatures necessary to run for office can not be verified, only counted (i.e. you can just xerox them) or when it deemed mandatory isolation of covid-19 cases as being unconstitutional. Anyway, it is clear that PSD is afraid because of the coming elections and are willing to do anything to hurt their opponents.

Now, on another subject - Former President Basescu is running to be the Mayor of Bucharest, and his odds have been creating a lot of fierce debate in Romania. Given that this is very important for the crucial Bucharest election in September, I will try to tell you how likely his victory is -

Many have argued that his victory in 2004 is proof that he is going to win again. And the population is still the same - 2.2 million, just as it was in 2004. However, about 1.1 million people have died since then or migrated to other towns in Romania or to foreign countries. And about 1.1 million people were born or came from the countryside to Bucharest since 2004. So the city is not the same. For the new people, he is probably the face of the 2008 recession or just another politician who lectures them on TV. And the ones who were alive and in Bucharest when Basescu was running for Mayor just have other priorities now. 16 years is a long time. That is probably the biggest obstacle that Basescu faces in his quest for the Mayorship.

On concrete numbers, PMP has about 45.000 voters in Bucharest. When Basescu ran at the top of their ticket, that number rose to 70.000. With this number, Basescu would get about 12%. Victory is out of reach. The lowest number of votes with which the Mayorship was won was around 250.000 by Firea in 2016. Even if Basescu got thrice as many votes then the data suggest, victory would still be improbable.

Comparing the 70.000 votes Basescu likely has with his opponents, Firea and Nicusor Dan who both have over 200.000, shows that a victory by him is highly unlikely. There are not many people disinterested in politics that could be brought out to vote by him. I doubt there are many undecided, given that Firea is a very polarizing figure and the contrast between her and her main opponent is very clear.

In conclusion, Basescu just does not have the numbers to do business. PMP is way, way too small to elect a Mayor on its own, his golden era is a distant memory for most and the no-second-round system makes the electorate hesitant to vote for unlikely winners. However, the most important effect of his candidacy is already showing up - Firea, PSD and their allies have already started to promote the idea that he is over performing. Polls by PSD-friendly institutions are giving him around 20%, with that number likely to grow as the campaign proceeds, thus tricking thousands to vote for Basescu, thinking he is the most likely candidate to defeat the Mayor.

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As we spoke of Tariceanu a few days ago, I should let you know that he became a laughing stock a few days ago as he failed to say the price of public transportation in Bucharest in a talk show even after bragging that he will revitalize it for minutes beforehand. Now, in another interview, he claimed that he never liked to depend on anything as he is an independent spirit, which is why he did not know the price, once again causing widespread mockery.

Anyway, today a PSD Congress will take place to finally elect a permanent leadership after Viorica Dancila resigned in November. I will give you live updates if anything of note happens (which I doubt) but I will post something at the end of the day about it.