Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[It’s so Joever]

As the counteroffensive snowballs, and based on casualty ratios, it's inevitable that the Allies will have to supply replacement Leopard 2s for Ukraine. The hundred they have now is nothing when you could be burning 3-5 a week. And in a war of attrition they're heading for, you're going to have to continue supplying more of your own arsenal as the Ukrainians continue being more dependent on Western equipment.

Good luck, as they already had a hard time scrambling the will to send the first wave of those tanks.

You may be right but you are making me hope for some very bad things to happen to you reading this in the most respectful way possible. The gloating really is awful.

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways my concern here is that this southeast offensive has been something people have speculated about since Mariupol fell. The September offensive in Kharkiv was stunning but it was not something as prepared for nor was it as much of a strategic priority for Russia. Russia will fight to heck to hold their genocide land bridge.
In the end it’s possible this turns into a reverse Bakhmut. The Ukrainians do capture severa strategic towns in the region (although nowhere near what would be hoped) but it is extremely costly and a meat grinder that demoralizes the military a bit.

[It’s so Joever]

Unless this is a lure and the real offensive is taking place in Kharkiv oblast, this is by all accounts a failed offensive and was doomed to be one from early on.

[It’s so Joever]

ISW says "The Armed Forces of Ukraine may probably suspend the counter-offensive temporarily to review the tactics of future operations,"

This is an actually trustworthy source here stating the obvious, this counteroffensive was not well thought out.

The good news is Ukrainian leadership is smart enough to put a halt on things for reevaluation, honestly that’s a good sign in some ways and does highlight a clear difference with Russia.

[It’s so Joever]

I feel like Woody, as someone on the ground there, would be a useful source now.

[It’s so Joever]

Hmmm, all these "the offensive has been a terrible disappointment" posts from jaichind but *at the same time* lots of reliable reports of actual Ukrainian advances! Who to believe, eh.....

Because if you took a minute to lay down and analyze, you would know not to take a random post from a Z-telegram and a map at face value from the same guy who has been spamming the last 4 pages with same posts. You realize Zherebyanky has been a frontline village for weeks now? Maybe you shouldn't stir sh*t to a guy when you don't know yourself what you're looking at?

Tens of billions of dollars of European and American tax dollars and already a month of the well-established counteroffensive, and they have (confirmed) taken only 9 villages with a few dozen inhabitants. How do you think people should value that?

“But I’m pro Ukraine I swear”

[It’s so Joever]

I wonder what the poll results would be if the public were informed that Russia was the first to use them and has been using cluster bombs on Ukraine, and that those bearing the risk of unexploded ordinance are the Ukrainian civilians, not Russian ones.

I think it will still be a proxy of Biden's approval rating like any generic presidential policy.

They really should also remove Biden’s name from the question and see what that does.

[It’s so Joever]

No the Ukrainians aren’t going to “take Mariupol” at this rate. This is one village in a massive two month long offensive which has largely been a dud.

[It’s so Joever]

UK MoD now blames "weeds and shrubs" for slow Ukraine advance

This is a valid analysis? Try harder.

[It’s so Joever]

This threaf is such a detailled collection of the war from the start, it could very well be archieved and used for future writings.

I once stumbled upon a (different) forum thread covering 9/11 live and it was truly amazing to read. I don’t remember where I found it but it exists somewhere.

[It’s so Joever]

"The bloody Central Bank, which has alarmed the whole country and isn't even explaining why the hell the ruble exchange rate has jumped so high that every other country is now laughing at our ruble being one of the three weakest currencies." - Solovyov

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1689567474306416640?s=20

Interesting as always how little the “totally neutral” currency “expert” has been talking about the exchange rate continuing to fall at a steady pace.

[It’s so Joever]

But the squiggly line for the British Pound will eventually go back up as long as the Bank of England and Westminster policymaking is stable and transparent. With the Russian Ruble, its squiggly line only goes down, and has been the case for decades. Only doing less worse than the Turkish Lira and the Argentine Peso isn't something to be proud of.

In any case, the Russian Central Bank has been hiking its rates to restrain the slide of the Ruble, far more aggressively than any western central bank. And the Ruble is still falling, but less quickly than in the absence of these rate hikes. All this was supposed to be over in three days.

What is this obsession of some with finance during warfare ?

The things that matter in a war are men and guns, not financial statistics sheets.

When Russia was losing badly the only thing peddled by some pro-russians was useless statistics.

I consider it bad news for Ukraine when it's side does the same.

This is an extremely neorrealist view of things and the problem with that is that it ignores how inner workings of the state’s decision making. Especially for Western democracies supporting Ukraine, whether they continue to provide Ukraine with the support needed is contingent on public perception within the respective countries. Either the leader will sense the public is fed up and stop sending aid, or they will get voted out. The economy is a major factor of that opinion.

It matters a bit less for Russia due to their autocracy, but there is a certain point at which it the public will have had enough. Although that point is far distances from what optimists want to think.

[It’s so Joever]

...perhaps it's because Israel has more in common with Russia than the United States and other Western democracies.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1701732985631109468

Can you blame them? They need those military supplies to terrorize the Palestinian people.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1707171066614006027?s=20

If the Joker was born in Russia and spoke fluent Russian, he could host a show on Russian television.

Even with this, there’ll be guys like Tucker Carlson, Jackson Hinkle, along with resident clowns like jaichind, bilaps, global south guy, and big serg claiming that somehow Russia is the good guy. Rhetoric like this is something you’d expect to see from Göbbels in the 40s. That russia actually thinks this way makes it clear that they are probably the most dangerous, sick, and downright evil regime since at least Pol Pot if not Nazi Germany

To be fair to Jaichind, for him all genocide is a positive and not a negative.

[It’s so Joever]

I don't think this is controversial, but any new military aid to Israel should be contingent on the new aid package to Ukraine passing.

Absolutely not . Aid to either nation should not be made contingent on aid to the other .

Why not? It forces the Putin simps into a concern and tbh Ukraine needs the help more than Israel

Israel is equally as important as Ukraine so no

Whether or not they are equally important has no bearing on the fact that Ukraine needs more help than Israel.

If Israel falls , there literally would be no Jewish nation left on the planet and the humanitarian consequences for Jews would be even worse than if Ukraine had fallen .

Anyway I think both Israel and Ukraine should be funded but people like Forumlurker should stop acting like it would be ok to defund Israel because no it would not be

It would be considering they are holding fine on their own anyways and have spent the past decade invading West Bank and besieging Gaza. This is not Ukraine, Israel has been an antagonist in this for years as well and it’s pure propaganda to say otherwise. The closest you could get with Ukraine is their admittedly questionable treatment of Russophones in the past, but that is akin to Israel’s equally questionable treatment of civilian Arabs, problematic but not at all cutting funds worthy. But invading another land with illegal settlements at your own security risk? That’s a threat to not just you but our standing.
I wouldn’t do such a move right now if in charge for other reasons (it would be a foreign policy self own) but there is nothing morally wrong with us cutting funding of it actually were convenient.

[It’s so Joever]

Bilaps has been called a Chetnik, for being from Serbia.

He’s from Bosnia.

Let me guess, he’s from Srpska and wants to breakaway completely?

[It’s so Joever]

Watch the “anti genocide” protestors ignore the upcoming holodomor.

[It’s so Joever]

Last time Russians took so much swaths of land in under a day was during the initial stages of the invasion (Feb-March 2022):

I hope you are happy.

[It’s so Joever]

I missed this, from the NY Times last December. It says Russia is willing to do an armistice at current lines. If so, that's good news. It further reinforces my belief that Putin never expected much Ukrainian resistance, he has been repeatedly humiliated and already regrets the "SMO". He is looking for a way out. Given the stalemate of the current fighting, and it's cost in lives for very little if any gain, I think the U.S. and Ukraine should agree.

The continuation of the war is a fiscal and humanitarian disaster, most of all for Ukraine, which desperately needs a chance to rebuild. It is losing an entire generation of young men on top of already dire demographic problems. It cannot hold elections. It's economy is stuck in war mode. Unless you're literally Palantir/Lockheed Martin or someone who actively relishes the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians, or a pro-Russian who wants Russia to conquer more territory, there is zero benefit to this war anymore. If Russia is willing to do an armistice, we should come to the table.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html

Or you saw Putin run the exact playbook in Chechnya and know he’s full of crap and just wants a pause to rebuild and reorganize for round 2

Immediately after Russia withdraws we provide a complete security guarantee to Ukraine and send NATO troops in. If Putin wants to try a round two he can have it.