2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[It’s so Joever]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

[It’s so Joever]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

What new data, specifically? The turnout report posted above? It's not unreasonable if you think Biden is getting a number of crossover votes like O'Rourke did in 2018, as well as juicing turnout in the previously Republican suburbs.

Yes...but Republican primary voters are over performing a bit relative to 2018....and Beto still lost even with that crossover support.
Besides, how does turnout change the percentages?

[It’s so Joever]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

Why don't we turn this around.

Why do you believe this new data is bad for democrats?

Comparing it to 2018, Republican primary voter share is up while the opposite is true for those with a Democratic primary history.

[It’s so Joever]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

Because Dems lost by 3 with similar numbers two years ago and there's some reason to believe that prior GE voters could potentially tilt D more than they did two years ago?

I don't think TX is going blue this year (I think Trump wins by 3 and Cornyn by like 6-7) but it is absolutely not out of the question that Biden could pull out a narrow win. Dems will probably be favorites in TX in like 4 years or so.

What is the proof/reasoning that prior GE voters will lean more left?

[It’s so Joever]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

Why don't we turn this around.

Why do you believe this new data is bad for democrats?

Comparing it to 2018, Republican primary voter share is up while the opposite is true for those with a Democratic primary history.

Why do you assume that R voters are voting Trump?

I assume that while there will be some crossover support, the vast majority of R voters will vote for the Republican president.

[It’s so Joever]

Just the fact that Atlas is dismissing the closest thing we have to experts, in this thread tells you everything you need to know about it.

[It’s so Joever]

Eh I’m normally a doomer, but young people seem to be turning out more than usual.
Keep in mind our rates are usually abysmal, so I’m not sure it’s that bad.

[It’s so Joever]

nevada is looking more interesting from a republican perspective and will look close i'm excited

[It’s so Joever]

In line at the Rome, GA rally.  Been asking around and the majority are waiting until Tuesday.  There’s wayyyyyyyyy more people here than the Macon rally a couple weeks ago.  Line is miles long

You are also right across the Alabama state line, so that’s something.

correct.  My main point was most people I’ve asked haven’t voted yet.  I got here 3 hours early and I’m fairly confident I won’t get in the rally lol.  The Macon rally I did the same and was within 50 yards of Trump.

To be fair, very few people in Alabama have early voted at all, so that wouldn’t be too surprising.

[It’s so Joever]

Guys, don’t fool yourselves ...

Tomorrow will see hordes of Trump supporters in front of polling stations and Trump will tweet the whole day how great that is.
 
Only a handful of Dem-leaning people in between.

I think it will depend on the state. For instance, I expect plenty of Dems to turnout in Northern states which aren’t as accustomed to mail-in voting and early voting, while states such as Texas will probably be near completely Republican on ED.

[It’s so Joever]

It seems to me. From a distance I grant you, that you think Biden is a great candidate. He has been a loser since forever.  Now at 80 odd years he is the saviour of the US. Wow. You guys are truly delusional

Who let Jfern make a second account?

[It’s so Joever]

I see he still is trying to get the female turnout to increase, bold strategy.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/AndrewBond3/status/1323436790351474688

Won't Election Day flip this though? Or am I paranoid?

Don’t worry fellow Doomercrat, most votes in Arizona are by mail anyways!

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/PaulBegala/status/1323466524213059585

Is the data he's citing TargetSmart modeling? Because...

Edit: Oh, Tom Bonier is the TargetSmart CEO.

I've noticed that Asian turnout is up big over 2016 everywhere.  Could have a big impact in Georgia.

Hopefully that is a good thing for Dems. Probably would be if they are younger/Not-Vietnamese. If Asians turning out is a factor in a Biden win, I will be so happy.

[It’s so Joever]

Who was it that challenged me to the avatar bet?

I believe it’s time for them to change theirs.

[It’s so Joever]

So that doubled turnout in the rio grande Valley went  100% to Trump
SHY TRUMP VOTERS

More like usual non voters who were not ever seen as likely to vote by polling agencies. Turnout was insane and I’m guessing the polls were off because they misunderstood just how many people would vote (and ironically that helped the GOP)