COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[It’s so Joever]

Why are people who get Covid in CT or RI TEN! times more likely to die than someone who gets Covid in ID or NE.  That's weird right?  It seems to really hit the north east the hardest (just like gingivitis!), is it because they got hit earlier and we didn't know as much about  keeping people alive?  Where their hospitals overrun?  Or just worse?  It's not black people driving the numbers, are people in Hartford just that much fatter than Boise?  Population density?


Ten times more is a LOT, there has to be a reason for the difference.

Testing levels were well under a tenth of what they are now back then, so only a tiny fraction of cases, mostly only the most severe, were reported during that initial outbreak. In actuality, there were still more cases in New York in March-April than there have been in any other state, by far. It’s as simple as that. I don’t think you’re a fool, and this should be obvious to anyone paying attention.

Death rates from new cases in the region now from the virus are no different than anywhere else.

Also treatment options were worse.

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.ft.com/content/4842aab1-7cc8-4973-b98a-03edf1eeae54
Schools play limited role in spread of Covid-19, studies signal
European research boosts policymakers who fear shutdown harms students and leaves parents unable to work

A series of studies has cast doubt on the role of schools in spreading the coronavirus as governments across Europe weigh fresh restrictions to slow a second wave of infections.

Studies in Germany and Norway, as well as two reviews focusing on education globally, suggest a renewal of widespread school closures would have a limited effect on curbing Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.

The findings are likely to bolster policymakers concerned that school closures would risk more students falling behind and limit the ability of parents to return to work.

More and more evidence emerging that Pr. Trump was right.

Incredible that it isn't one of main topics in USA. Too fast closure and too slow re-opening of schools might lead to the lost generation of kids from poor, often low-educated, often minority, often single-mom etc families. I guess it's because Dems elite and journos are mostly white libs whose children are doing just fine on remote learning. And, obviously, because agreeing with Trump BAAAD is big No-No.

Welp, it was nice having an empty ignore list for a few months. All good things come to an end.

[It’s so Joever]

I think they should try to space the desks and require masks. It sucks, but it's better than another year of remote learning.

Even remote learning would be better than that. But remote learning is still bad.

I also notice that IDEA and the ADA have been completely ignored through all of this.

Dude, I didn’t even have access to 2/3rds of my classes with the online “option” because our district wanted to disincentivize it. Plus had I chosen the online option I would have lost all my teacher and counselor college recommendations (no joke)
I have a preexisting condition and am being forced to choose between my own health and future because of it.
But sure, talk about accommodating the disabled more if it makes you truthers feel better.

[It’s so Joever]

This is why we use physiological population density as well, kids.

With that metric, Brazil is higher and the USA is lower. Of course, Argentina is still lower than both.

[It’s so Joever]

On that list you post, the US as a whole is easily the least densely populated country.

Argentina has actually the lowest population density in that list

EDIT: even Brazil has a lowest population density than the US

Brazil doesn't really count as large swaths of the country are virtually uninhabited.

That's not true. I have worked in Brazil in remote exploration, and there are people in all areas no matter where you go. West Africa was the same.

You cant argue one thing. Get it wrong, and then when challenged by scientific facts, back it up with more wrong information.

That is simply providing misinformation twice based on lack of knowledge.

Yes, there are a few people everywhere, but they are a tiny anomaly when looked at through a nationwide lens.

That’s why he said “virtually”, as while there are technically people, many of those areas are still very close to uninhabited in relation to the rest of the country.

[It’s so Joever]

This is bad news:

https://twitter.com/ReutersScience/status/1321153048236957697?s=20

But according to Del Taco, this is just the flu!

[It’s so Joever]

This is bad news:

https://twitter.com/ReutersScience/status/1321153048236957697?s=20

But according to Del Taco, this is just the flu!

The study is bunk because there wasn't a pre-diagnosis baseline to compare individuals against.  It's literally just a difference-in-means analysis, with absolutely zero inferential power.

Plus, ten years of cognitive aging would be a great thing for you!   

Thing is...this is one of several findings which have shown potential brain effects due to Covid-19.
If this were the only example, I would have probably been wary but not worried.
This pattern especially concerns me, because I actually have a neurological disorder and I have this small desire to live still.
Of course, you are going to make a joke that would be deleted by a mod hours ago had I made it.

Here are other damn examples just in case you actually care (which you don’t, you just want an excuse to dismiss the virus for your own personal convenience)

Seriously, either put your money where your mouth is and commit to sending me money for my medical bills if/when I get severely ill, or admit you are completely wrong on Covid-19. Either would be great options.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/09/health/coronavirus-brain.html

https://usatoday.com/5904177002

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/most-hospitalized-covid-patients-have-neurological-symptoms-study-says-n1242143

[It’s so Joever]

What is the source for the claim that testing has decreased?  

It is true that positivity rate has increased.  But according the Covid Tracking Project and the Johns Hopkins tracker, testing is also still increasing this week as it has been for the last 6-8 weeks.



https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

It's possible he is looking state-by-state. For example, while New York has massively increased testing in the past month, it is not the location of a major outbreak at the moment. And Rhode Island just this week passed the threshold of being the first state to have (over the course of the pandemic) undertaken more coronavirus tests than there are residents in the state. But many of the states with the highest new case rates have much, much lower testing rates than the top-tier testing states.

This thing is a hard one to quantify.

You have different testing levels and reporting in different countries and states. You have people knowingly carrying the virus and being sick, and not coming forward to be tested. Just hiding at home for 2 weeks so they don't lose their job or taint their business with a shutdown or quarantine for all staff and customers.

The one thing we can see clearly is that the death rate in the subsequent waves appears to be dropping considerably.

This is most likely due to a combination of factors including:

1. The virus is becoming less deadly as time progresses; and/or
2. People who have been exposed are developing good immunity levels, particularly children preventing subsequent re-infection or transmission;
3. The medical treatment is getting better to prevent death;
4. The testing rates have increased (lowering the death rate mathematically);
5. People who are vulnerable are taking stronger precautions;
6. The pathways to the vulnerable people in our society are no longer available.

These are only assertions, but in 2-3 years time, we will have a clearer picture.

It's scenario's like Sweden that help speed up this analysis.

Easy to see this as an experiment from f**king Australia.

[It’s so Joever]

Given the lack of leadership at the national level and the apathy of so much of the public, why is the US still doing so much better at controlling the spread than most major European countries over the past few weeks?

I mean...I would argue we are still in the very early phase of this new wave, Europe is ahead of us in this trajectory right now. Where they are now, we probably will be in a few weeks.

[It’s so Joever]

Again, the fact we don’t have a mask mandate everywhere in the US which is strictly enforced is outrageous. There is no economic harm from a mask mandate, and it greatly will reduce our transmission.

[It’s so Joever]

So bad news...there may be a mutation that is resistant to previous Covid antibodies, or at least somewhat stronger against them...

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-11-07/covid-outbreak-in-mink-that-was-dismissed-now-has-world-worried

[It’s so Joever]

Also, this is the result of idiots who can’t be bothered to act reasonably.


https://magicvalley.com/news/local/idaho-hospitals-are-on-the-brink-will-it-take-people-dying-in-my-er-to/article_55937a30-30a4-564f-a128-22c4a4f28cf5.html

https://www.abc4.com/coronavirus/breaking-point-record-number-of-covi-19-patients-overwhelms-utah-hospitals/amp/

https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-health-north-dakota-6b69d7c8a9ab2a984f5a0951ecbf5ec9

https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-public-health-health-nebraska-ad15f66462c2b90b85350fbf8be73ca4

https://wgem.com/2020/11/05/northeast-missouri-hospitals-begin-to-face-staffing-space-concerns-related-to-covid-19/

https://www.kare11.com/amp/article/news/health/coronavirus/hospital-icu-bed-availability-limited-in-twin-cities-as-covid-cases-rise/89-415e40fd-a5fb-4148-8b7c-6e262ea82028

https://www.amp.jconline.com/amp/6185477002

[It’s so Joever]

Ever heard of the Tuskegee experiment?

That was a while ago. But yeah, it's one of those things like Nixon telling South Vietnam to walk out of the peace talks that must have been written of as a crazy conspiracy theory until it was proven.

Looks like the two Russian trolls have finally met eachother.
Maybe you two should get a room.

[It’s so Joever]

https://mobile.twitter.com/keribla/status/1325914300096110592

So much less than among (D) Cuomo's retirement homes?


Pretty clear it is because of higher share of elderly people in this particular prison.

Do you have anything better to do than politicizing and downplaying the virus?
Seriously I miss when you weren’t posting.

[It’s so Joever]

He will be fine, unlike the millions of Americans who don’t have access to affordable healthcare because of his party.

[It’s so Joever]

He will be fine, unlike the millions of Americans who don’t have access to affordable healthcare because of his party.

A lot of your party is also responsible for this.

Instead of focusing on lifting up poor people, every second world is about lifting up people of colour . A lot of you have fully embraced borderline insane identity politics, instead of focusing on the fact that all the problems which arise in all communities, whether that's poor white people in trailer camps or black people in "hoods", is a result lack of access to education and poverty.

Instead of fighting for real women's rights, such as paid maternity leave, you put on your pink hats and scream about male privilege or viciously support unlimited abortion, even though no sane developed country allows random abortions at a late stage because a 7-month fetus is no different from a newborn baby.

You have lost a sh**t ton of white working-class people to Republicans due to certain Democrats demonizing "white cis males", and frankly, unless you root out these people and stop giving them a voice, you do not deserve a single one of these things.

When is the last time you had BLM/#Metoo scale protests for 100% health coverage? Well, I'll tell you, never.

Correct.
The virtue-signaling on social issues has p**sed me off quite a lot actually. In fact, I literally agree with everything you said and have bashed fellow red avatars in the past for getting into these stupid culture wars.

[It’s so Joever]

He will be fine, unlike the millions of Americans who don’t have access to affordable healthcare because of his party.

A lot of your party is also responsible for this.

Instead of focusing on lifting up poor people, every second world is about lifting up people of colour . A lot of you have fully embraced borderline insane identity politics, instead of focusing on the fact that all the problems which arise in all communities, whether that's poor white people in trailer camps or black people in "hoods", is a result lack of access to education and poverty.

Instead of fighting for real women's rights, such as paid maternity leave, you put on your pink hats and scream about male privilege or viciously support unlimited abortion, even though no sane developed country allows random abortions at a late stage because a 7-month fetus is no different from a newborn baby.

This analysis is too online. Every Democrat claims to be fighting for poor (or, more euphemistically, "working") people and families. Those who focus instead on "people of color" are either (1) social media activists or (2) people who represent actual people of color in congress (and even then, most of the time, most of these people are still talking about working families more than they are their race).

Look, I find social media activists incredibly tedious and self-indulgent. I don't enjoy reading a lot of the screed they post. They're a growing (but still likely plurality) share of the rank-and-file Democratic electorate. But I'm not so resentful that I conflate green-haired instagram teenagers with actual Democratic politicians.

You have lost a sh**t ton of white working-class people to Republicans due to certain Democrats demonizing "white cis males", and frankly, unless you root out these people and stop giving them a voice, you do not deserve a single one of these things.

Again, this analysis is way too online. The number of elected Democrats who ever (let alone regularly!) slander "white cis males" can probably be counted on your fingers and toes. You're conflating a type of extremely-online activist with a party that, in most cases, is too old to even understand what it means to be "cis".

There are culture wars grievances that are definitely costing Democrats a ton of working class white votes. These are much more likely to be related to urban/rural identity and college attainment than race, gender, or sexuality. I am sure that basically no working class person decided their vote on critical race theory instead of, say, federal emissions regulations or gas taxes.

When is the last time you had BLM/#Metoo scale protests for 100% healthcare coverage? Well, I'll tell you, never.

I more or less agree with the sentiment here, although there are very obvious differences between police brutality or rampant workplace sexual harassment and paying too much for your deductible.

Well...it seems every other sentence I hear from a lot of Democratic politicians mentions race/gender.
Yes there are discrepancies and we can work to resolve those, but I don’t really think you can deny the virtue signaling coming from some Democratic politicians. Tbh, I actually think Biden is better on this than most.

[It’s so Joever]

He will be fine, unlike the millions of Americans who don’t have access to affordable healthcare because of his party.

A lot of your party is also responsible for this.

Instead of focusing on lifting up poor people, every second world is about lifting up people of colour . A lot of you have fully embraced borderline insane identity politics, instead of focusing on the fact that all the problems which arise in all communities, whether that's poor white people in trailer camps or black people in "hoods", is a result lack of access to education and poverty.

Instead of fighting for real women's rights, such as paid maternity leave, you put on your pink hats and scream about male privilege or viciously support unlimited abortion, even though no sane developed country allows random abortions at a late stage because a 7-month fetus is no different from a newborn baby.

This analysis is too online. Every Democrat claims to be fighting for poor (or, more euphemistically, "working") people and families. Those who focus instead on "people of color" are either (1) social media activists or (2) people who represent actual people of color in congress (and even then, most of the time, most of these people are still talking about working families more than they are their race).

Look, I find social media activists incredibly tedious and self-indulgent. I don't enjoy reading a lot of the screed they post. They're a growing (but still likely plurality) share of the rank-and-file Democratic electorate. But I'm not so resentful that I conflate green-haired instagram teenagers with actual Democratic politicians.

You have lost a sh**t ton of white working-class people to Republicans due to certain Democrats demonizing "white cis males", and frankly, unless you root out these people and stop giving them a voice, you do not deserve a single one of these things.

Again, this analysis is way too online. The number of elected Democrats who ever (let alone regularly!) slander "white cis males" can probably be counted on your fingers and toes. You're conflating a type of extremely-online activist with a party that, in most cases, is too old to even understand what it means to be "cis".

There are culture wars grievances that are definitely costing Democrats a ton of working class white votes. These are much more likely to be related to urban/rural identity and college attainment than race, gender, or sexuality. I am sure that basically no working class person decided their vote on critical race theory instead of, say, federal emissions regulations or gas taxes.

When is the last time you had BLM/#Metoo scale protests for 100% healthcare coverage? Well, I'll tell you, never.

I more or less agree with the sentiment here, although there are very obvious differences between police brutality or rampant workplace sexual harassment and paying too much for your deductible.

by the way....I bet our archaic healthcare system kills infinitely more people than police brutality.

[It’s so Joever]

Using the same metrics as this summer (not entirely accurate due to testing) this is a map of states by severity of the outbreak.
Even if you adjust for more testing...the picture still is not very rosy.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=4xfa

The situation is bad, and I can confirm as someone in a deep red state with parents who have coworkers doing stuff in the ICU, that the hospital situation isn’t looking great in any way. I am not going to share much, but it’s bad. Like March level, and it’s only getting worse.

If you are in a State in the darkest red, PLEASE stay home when possible. Obviously go out for work and essential purposes, but otherwise stay home, and wear a mask at all times in public. I can’t make any of you on here do anything, but just don’t be a useless jerk, do the right thing for once.

Additionally, if you have old/high-risk relatives in Iowa, South Dakota, or North Dakota...I would suggest calling them or FaceTiming them sooner rather than later in case the worst happens (it won’t if they are careful but you never know)

We will survive this horrid winter, but only if we can collectively have even a degree of common sense and human decency (in other words we are screwed)

[It’s so Joever]

High humidity and very cold temps might make it easier to spread. I think that's the current belief.

No it’s dry temps and cold air.
A lot of respiratory viruses transmit well with those conditions, this isn’t completely unheard of before.

[It’s so Joever]

The number of new cases is horrifying. That's on track for every American to get COVID at some point between now and 2026, just by the math and not taking into account vaccines, herd immunity, etc. Keep in mind that that the daily cases could conceivably double or triple from here as well. Hospitals being overrun and both COVID and non-COVID deaths skyrocketing is also a real possibility. This is truly a nightmare.

It’s not just a possibility, it is going to happen in two weeks.

[It’s so Joever]

Much of the Midwest is pretty chill and easygoing regarding COVID-19...

https://apnews.com/article/iowa-south-dakota-coronavirus-pandemic-nebraska-north-dakota-bf7197b284401dea8b779cfa764dfab2

This represents what most people around here think. They know the virus is out there, but they can't keep upending their lives over it.

Most people just instinctively stop panicking over things after a few months.

Well, at least all the long term lung damage will make universal healthcare necessary!
Lets hope this helps Biden politically since it seems nothing else can be hoped for.

[It’s so Joever]

It's very frustrating being in a blue city where people take COVID19 measures seriously. Virtually everyone I see wears a mask (even outdoors), practices distancing etc. And yet we'll lock down and red states won't. At some point it's not sustainable to have such a spotty response. For our mental health included.

Don’t worry!
It just means your future healthcare costs will be lower!

[It’s so Joever]

The reality is that a vast majority of people would be better off getting the virus than being forced to shut down the economy, or uphend their daily lives in other ways.  So it might be fair to call people who oppose further restrictions selfish, but it is not necessarily fair to call them stupid.  

And we should have been crafting a national response that acknowledges this reality from the outset, rather than just trying to gin up uniform fear of the virus that anyone who has seen the basic statistics behind is knows is misleading.

Put your money where your mouth is and deliberately infect yourself.
Also don’t use hospital services no matter what because you need to simulate the inevitable collapse if we did pursue your strategy.

[It’s so Joever]

The reality is that a vast majority of people would be better off getting the virus than being forced to shut down the economy, or uphend their daily lives in other ways.  So it might be fair to call people who oppose further restrictions selfish, but it is not necessarily fair to call them stupid.  

And we should have been crafting a national response that acknowledges this reality from the outset, rather than just trying to gin up uniform fear of the virus that anyone who has seen the basic statistics behind is knows is misleading.

Put your money where your mouth is and deliberately infect yourself.
Also don’t use hospital services no matter what because you need to simulate the inevitable collapse if we did pursue your strategy.

I don't even know how I would go about doing this.  And I certainly wouldn't want to infect anyone else in the process.  That's the problem.

I do believe that we would have arrived at a much better outcome by pursuing a strategy of controlled voluntary infection and quarantine.  As long as infections and quarantining were done under close medical supervision, we could have cut infections to vulnerable populations to a small fraction of what they were, and in the process used far less hospital resources are produced far fewer deaths.

Of course, there's really no hope for that now; we just have to wait around for a vaccine.
But even if you can't see the argument for voluntary infection to produce herd immunity, I hope most people can agree that it was absolutely criminal that we weren't conducting human challenge trial to speed up vaccine production.  This is easily the worst and most obvious mistake that we have collective made throughout the entire pandemic.

I’m guessing there were ethical concerns, although I don’t really understand either.