COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[It’s so Joever]

5/6 (Today):

• Cases: 1,263,092 (+26,105 | Δ Change: ↑8.09% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 74,799 (+2,558 | Δ Change: ↑10.26% | Σ Increase: ↑3.54%)

Cases seems to have decreased in the last week. Deaths continue to be just as bad.

Deaths would always be a lagging indicator.  We also have to remember that testing has ramped up.  Nate Silver tweets a metric every day with the percentage of the tests coming back positive, and that has showed a slow, but steady, decline over the last month or so.

I don't know if there's an official formula for this, but here's what I use to estimate the actual number of new cases each day:

N*(T/5)

'N' is the number of known new cases. 'T' is the percentage of tests that comes back positive.

Based on that formula, the number of actual new cases lately is way, way, way down.

It’s all fun and games until the positivity rate reaches zero...

On a serious note, this is actually a decent measure (not for actual cases, but to see how the numbers are changing)

[It’s so Joever]

If you want to know the difference between our lockdown and Spain’s, here it is.
This is your daily reminder that had we adopted something like this back in Mid-March when I wanted to, (instead of making an inefficient compromise which just will hurt us and the economy more) we would be able to safely reopen without killing more people than Vietnam.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/07/sorry-americans-you-havent-even-had-real-lockdown-yet-coronavirus-spain/

[It’s so Joever]

Hm.....looks like a severe lung disease also has long term effects, even if it doesn’t kill you...who would have guessed?
You know, this was all preventable. Both Chinese and American governments need to be investigated for crimes against humanity.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/5/8/21251899/coronavirus-long-term-effects-symptoms

[It’s so Joever]

Not directly related to US, but a huge deal if true: Now there are reports the first Covid19 case in France could be dating back to November 2019. For reference, the PRC informed WHO on December 31. Haven't seen US media picking this up yet, but if confirmed, we may be talking about a much earlier spread in the US and elsewhere.

I've been saying this for a while, I don't know if it was like this where you guys live but here, EVERYONE was sick like constantly between November and mid-late January. Like, it seemed like everyone I knew (including my wife and myself) got sick with weird respiratory sh**t back during the winter, and everyone I know who went to the doctor for it said they tested for the flu but it wasn't the flu, just "unknown upper respiratory infection" was the diagnosis.

I really think this has been going around longer than people realize, and everyone was fine.

Maybe....or it could have been one of thousands of viruses which cause upper respiratory infections.
Considering the sudden spikes in mortality in known Covid hotspots, I don’t think this is as likely as people say. There certainly may have been some transmission earlier than we thought, but I doubt most Americans have had Covid.
Of course, as usual I hope you are right.

[It’s so Joever]

I have decided to post daily numbers for Colorado starting today, mainly to see the effects of lifting the stay-at-home orders here over the next few weeks. Given our State is pretty small, the data will jump a bit, so so will also post 7 day trends each week.
These will each be a day late because for some reason, CDPHE doesn’t put up positivity % data until the next day.

May 7
New cases: 456 (-15.7%)
Total cases: 18,827

New deaths: 16 (-30.4%)
Total deaths: 960

“Real cases” 758 (-29.3%)


I am using Bandit’s suggested formula of (new cases)*(%pos/5)
It’s not a reflection of actual cases for obvious reasons, but it’s another way to gauge if the crisis is improving/getting worse.

Also, stay-at-home orders end this weekend in the Denver metro area. It will be interesting to see the results.

[It’s so Joever]

Very bad news.

It was abruptly reported today that three boys died of Covid-19. A four year old in New Jersey, a five year old in New York City, and a seven year old in Westchester. Symptoms apparently don't start for up to six weeks after exposure which is why we're only seeing it now. Now 73 children are being treated. This follows similar reports recently in the U.K. and Italy.

As awful as it is, I hope these deaths are talked about on mainstream media for weeks just to get the idea that this virus isn’t severe out of people’s thick heads. Maybe now that it’s not just granny dying, people will care (or more realistically will not)

[It’s so Joever]

The people who should “have their heads on spikes” are the Hubei officials who covered up the initial outbreak up, and nearly all of the Trump administration.

[It’s so Joever]

Virus-truthers and economic concern trolls will go down in history for destroying the American Empire.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-donald-trump-has-destroyed-the-country-he-promised-to-make-great-again-1.4235928%3fmode=amp

[It’s so Joever]

Virus-truthers and economic concern trolls will go down in history for destroying the American Empire.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-donald-trump-has-destroyed-the-country-he-promised-to-make-great-again-1.4235928%3fmode=amp

Where is the non-paywall version?  

Sorry my bad.

O’Toole

THE WORLD HAS LOVED, HATED AND ENVIED THE U.S. NOW, FOR THE FIRST TIME, WE PITY IT

Over more than two centuries, the United States has stirred a very wide range of feelings in the rest of the world: love and hatred, fear and hope, envy and contempt, awe and anger. But there is one emotion that has never been directed towards the US until now: pity.

However bad things are for most other rich democracies, it is hard not to feel sorry for Americans. Most of them did not vote for Donald Trump in 2016. Yet they are locked down with a malignant narcissist who, instead of protecting his people from Covid-19, has amplified its lethality. The country Trump promised to make great again has never in its history seemed so pitiful.

Will American prestige ever recover from this shameful episode? The US went into the coronavirus crisis with immense advantages: precious weeks of warning about what was coming, the world’s best concentration of medical and scientific expertise, effectively limitless financial resources, a military complex with stunning logistical capacity and most of the world’s leading technology corporations. Yet it managed to make itself the global epicentre of the pandemic.

As the American writer George Packer puts it in the current edition of the Atlantic, “The United States reacted ... like Pakistan or Belarus – like a country with shoddy infrastructure and a dysfunctional government whose leaders were too corrupt or stupid to head off mass suffering.”

(...)

You still can't quote more than a portion of the text - K.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/doctorow/status/1258782599918637057

What an egregious take.

Re-opening is primarily to benefit the 1%?? Have you seen the stock market lately? its up on the year. Its pushing new highs again. The 1% are doing just fine and most have plenty of savings to get them through this. The people who need to go back to work are the ones living paycheck to paycheck. People working jobs in the service industry or hospitality industry who have been furloughed, especially since we have no UBI bill passed.

My God....

This.

I live in a state that is heavily dependent on the hospitality industry.  When you get away from the corporate investors in Disney, Hotels, Resorts, etc, you get to the incomes of the smaller hotels, motels, and independent restaurants, and the workers in all of these places, including servers, drivers, entertainers, etc.  And by "entertainers", I'm talking about a wide number of folks who are NOT famous and NOT celebrities.  Think of how many "entertainers" work at Walt Disney World.  (Employees at Disney are "cast members".  Those who work with the public are "onstage", while those who are support staff are "backstage".)  These are NOT the 1%.  These are working people who need this to live.  

I've been deep in thought on a lot of things this week.  One conclusion I've come to is that the Nanny State that many Democrats advocate is going to be anything but "liberal".  I think it's fair to say that we're seeing that right now.  There's no regard for the individual Constitutional liberties and rights of others on the part of these Governors who seem to enjoy issuing restrictive lockdown orders, even if the science doesn't clearly justify it.  (And science is showing that the fastest number of new deaths from COVID-19 in NY are from folks staying at home.)

I'm thinking about a lot of things.  One thing I'm thinking about is the that today's Democratic Governors are something other than liberal.

You’re not wrong that the people most affected by these lockdowns are the working poor. That should have been obvious to anyone paying attention since April. But that’s not a reason to reopen. Rather, it’s a reason to expand social programs so that we don’t have to kill the working class in order to prevent the pandemic.
It’s also a reason for us to have a strictly enforced lockdown for a shorter period of time, as opposed to a mild-lockdown which requires months to have an impact and ironically exposes more people to the virus.

[It’s so Joever]

US blocks vote on UN's bid for global ceasefire over reference to WHO

The US has blocked a vote on a UN security council resolution calling for a global ceasefire during the Covid-19 pandemic, because the Trump administration objected to an indirect reference to the World Health Organization.

The security council has been wrangling for more than six weeks over the resolution, which was intended to demonstrate global support for the call for a ceasefire by the UN secretary general, António Guterres. The main source for the delay was the US refusal to endorse a resolution that urged support for the WHO’s operations during the coronavirus pandemic.

Unbelievable, the world is being mostly dictated by a madman ruining us all.

That’s why we have to vote this p****y grabber out!

[It’s so Joever]

It’s also a reason for us to have a strictly enforced lockdown for a shorter period of time, as opposed to a mild-lockdown which requires months to have an impact and ironically exposes more people to the virus.

Are you saying are mild lockdowns expose more people than if we hadn't done anything?

My bad, no.
I’m saying longer mild lockdowns expose more people and hurt the economy more than shorter but stricter lockdowns.

[It’s so Joever]

That’s why we have to vote this p****y grabber out!

But Joe Biden has not been elected yet.

One is an unproven allegation.
The other one is a literal recording which he himself admitted to saying.
Nice try, thanks for playing.

[It’s so Joever]

May 7

New cases: 456 (-15.7%)
Total cases: 18,827

New deaths: 16 (-30.4%)
Total deaths: 960

“Real cases” 758 (-29.3%)

May 8

New cases: 548 (+20.2%)
Total cases: 19,375


New deaths: 7 (-56.3%)
Total deaths: 967


“Real” cases: 1,166 (+53.8%)

[It’s so Joever]

For anyone looking for a rare positive development in all this, today had the lowest percentage of positive tests since way back on March 16.

Where do you find national positivity rates?

[It’s so Joever]

May 7

New cases: 456 (-15.7%)
Total cases: 18,827

New deaths: 16 (-30.4%)
Total deaths: 960

“Real cases” 758 (-29.3%)

May 8

New cases: 548 (+20.2%)
Total cases: 19,375


New deaths: 7 (-56.3%)
Total deaths: 967


“Real” cases: 1,166 (+53.8%)

May 9

New cases: 328 (-40.1%)
Total cases: 19,703

New deaths: 4 (-42.9%)
Total deaths: 971

“Real” cases: 842 (-27.8%)


I am really liking the death number. Hopefully these trends continue. Positivity rates are also generally lowering which is a good sign of the outbreak diminishing. If things are generally fine over the next seven days, perhaps Polis’s lifting of the order was not a bad call (And I will gladly eat my crow)

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/1259303029112799234

Small clusters like these are inevitable, but the goal is to reduce the virus to the point that said clusters can be quickly identified and isolated from the rest of society. The lockdowns are only necessary because of our lack of action at first. Any reopening must be met with extensive testing (sort of happening, depends on the State), randomized testing, and a plan in case a cluster emerges.

[It’s so Joever]

I wear a mask when going to the transaction windows of fast-food places.  If people taking the cash or handing you fast food are wearing masks, then so should you.

Speaking of masks again, I noticed yet another increase in the number of customers not wearing masks at my job today. The majority still are, but the persistent minority-as I call them-has now risen to around 40% of all customers. It's amazing how stubborn so many people have been. Like I've said before, people will not wear masks unless if they are mandated to (and yes, I know that I've expressed skepticism over the mandatory mask orders since). But it's starting to get on me now, especially as we employees have been required to wear masks for weeks now, and yet many people still are not.

A suggestion that I might give: Thank people for wearing masks or scarves. Kind words can be encouraging. The isolation under which people live is limiting their opportunity to hear kind words of any kind. 

On the opposite side of the spectrum, society should shame those who don’t wear masks.
They should be ostracized and rumored about in their communities.

[It’s so Joever]

New WaPo-Ipsos poll of large states shows that, with the exception of DeWine in Ohio (who of course has been taking this very seriously and fighting his own party on it), Democratic governors are much more popular than Republican governors in terms of approval of their COVID response.

Notably, Brian Kemp in Georgia (first to reopen) has the lowest approval rating, underwater at 39%. And “that woman” Gretchen Whitmer has a 72% approval rating. Looks like all those protesters were just a vocal minority. Shocker!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/many-governors-win-bipartisan-support-for-handling-of-pandemic-but-some-republicans-face-blowback-over-reopening-efforts/2020/05/11/8e98500e-93d2-11ea-9f5e-56d8239bf9ad_story.html

Brad Little and Holcomb have also been pretty good, at least for GOP governors.

[It’s so Joever]

Does anyone have "US minus New York" numbers? It seems like New York being through the worst of it is accounting for most or all of the decline in new cases.

It’s not just New York, things in NJ, LA, and MI are looking positive. That being said, smaller states are seeing substantial case growth and need to be monitored.
(This is why we should have had an actual quarantine of the NYC metro)

[It’s so Joever]

Colorado numbers for May 11

New cases: 176 (-46.3%)
Total cases: 19,879


New deaths: 16 (+300%)
Total deaths: 987


“Real” cases: 244 (-49.7)


It does look good on the case front, although Monday typically has lower cases than usual here.
The new death increase isn’t surprising. Imo, the 4 deaths on Sunday seemed way too low, even if we were declining.
I still am pessimistic for the rest of this week, but there is no doubt these numbers alone are far better than I would have anticipated.

[It’s so Joever]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

There is speculation, and some small scale studies that kinda make the correlation, but it isn’t established fact.
I personally do think it will slow it a bit, but it certainly won’t make the virus disappear. More sunlight and less dry air will probably help.

[It’s so Joever]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

Yes, just look at South Africa and Australia, and to an extent India. Also, look at how well several southern states are doing (Florida, Texas, Georgia, Alabama) compared to their governor's loose strategies.

Does anyone have "US minus New York" numbers? It seems like New York being through the worst of it is accounting for most or all of the decline in new cases.

It’s not just New York, things in NJ, LA, and MI are looking positive. That being said, smaller states are seeing substantial case growth and need to be monitored.
(This is why we should have had an actual quarantine of the NYC metro)

Testing is surging, cases p/d are probably going to continue to increase while the testing surges, the actual amount of cases p/d is declining almost everywhere. The only acceptable metric is percent of positives, which is declining everywhere.

Is it declining everywhere?
I only know it’s declining nationally and in CO.

[It’s so Joever]

California Mayor is apparently trying to push the stay at home order through July (which isn't going to be necessary due to the case trend). Hopefully he realizes what that means and he will come back to reality, but expect riots if he doesn't.

I highly doubt there will be riots for that. I think most people have been expecting long lockdowns for a while now.

Through July? Lol no

Yeah, 4+ months of stay-at-home orders will not be tolerated well by many.

Too bad for them.

You must be one of those who prioritizes fighting the virus over gradually reopening the economy, a reopening process that would be attended with precautions. We've already seen the negative, and extensive economic impacts from the few months of shutdowns we've had. I think it would be in LA County's interest to adopt a "safer-at-home", phased reopening approach, similar to that occurring here in Colorado.

We are absolutely nowhere near prepared to reopen; look what is already happening to countries who’ve checked all the right boxes in order to reopen, yet are already seeing signs of a second wave. America half-assed its lockdowns, we have a large segment of our population unwilling to even wear a simple mask in public, have nowhere near enough PPE, and people think we are in any way prepared to begin reopening?

I'm certainly aware of the issues which we have seen for our reopening process, and it has been said for quite some time that there will be a second wave. However, would you advocate keeping large segments of the economy shuttered down for several months more? Let's say that we were to do that. What would be the economic consequences? The public health consequences? And by "public health consequences", I mean the risks associated with suicide, domestic violence, and other life-threatening diseases such as cancer and heart disease. These are in addition to the risks posed by coronavirus itself.

At some point, people will be forced to consider-as I've said before-their financial well-being, and balance it with concerns for their health. And many small business owners and workers cannot afford to be kept out of business for the duration which you propose. Unless if you welcome 30% unemployment, that is. And I'm certain, knowing your viewpoints, that you wouldn't.

You’re so close to a class conscious position, but you just can’t bring yourself over that line, huh? The response to that unfortunate situation is for the government to finally assume responsibility of securing people’s livelihoods. A few billionaires made obscene amounts of money during this crisis; as have other corporations and individuals well positioned to benefit. It’s time to halt this war of capitalists against workers; trying to coerce working people into sacrificing their wellbeing to maintain profits and this corrupt economic system. Anything short of shifting the burden onto the rich and privileged to secure the livelihoods of working people is unacceptable and will result in only more death and economic hardship.

We do eventually have to reopen. Now, I will argue we are doing it stupidly, and any reopening should probably include mask laws (I have changed my stance on this due to the inability of the American people to act sanely) and enforcement of social distancing when possible, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t  reopen. We can talk about government social networks as a way to alleviate some of the damage, but we can’t stay closed forever. FWIW, I do think Los Angeles should remain locked down now.

[It’s so Joever]

Dr. Fauci's days (in the White House) are numbered:

Republicans are increasingly turning against Fauci

But Paul’s line of questioning reflects an increasing conservative skepticism of Fauci — a skepticism that has grown over the past month in part thanks to people like him questioning Fauci’s advice. And a new poll this week reinforces that this skepticism is slowly taking hold: The CNN poll suggests a significant decline in GOP regard for Fauci’s expertise, when measure against other similar polls of Fauci in recent weeks.

While 84 percent of Republicans said they trusted the information they received from President Trump about the virus, just 72 percent said the same about the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while just 61 percent said the same about Fauci, the CNN poll found.

That split in regard for Trump and Fauci is something that simply didn’t exist even a month ago.

I dare Trump to fire Fauci, that will really help his re-election chances.