🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

Two and half months after the election Thuringia still hasn't a new government, although CDU state leader Mike Möhring has now made another attempt at selling a Left-CDU cooperation to his own party, this time calling it a Projektregierung ("project government").

There are also talks with the FDP for some projects. The state will get a red-red-green minority government. But I sincerely doubt it will last for the whole five year term. Minority cabinets rarely went well in Germany, even though it's regular in other European countries like Denmark.

There are two main points of contention between Left/SPD/Greens and CDU/FDP.

1) When will the formal election of the minister-president be held in state parliament (because the current government is only in power in an acting capacity since the election)? The Left would rather do it faster than later, while the CDU maintains a "not so fast, not so fast..." position.

2) How close and how frequent will the two blocks cooperate with each other? The Left/SPD/Green government would prefer frequent meetings to discuss upcoming legislation, while CDU/FDP would prefer to keep some greater distance in order to continue a more formal opposition role.

As far as the stability of minority governments are concerned, I would like to point out that Saxony-Anhalt had a pretty stable one between 1994 and 2002. Of course, this one operated under somewhat different conditions, that is as a SPD minority cabinet supported by the then-PDS instead of a Left/SPD/Green minority cabinet supported by the CDU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Hamburg Wahl-o-mat is online!

https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/hamburg2020/


1) Animal Protection Party
2) Pirates
3) Left
4) Greens

...

15) AfD

[Middle-aged Europe]

More than three months after the election, the Thuringian state parliament will today attempt to elect a new minister-president.

According to the state consitution, you need a majority on the first two ballots, while a plurality of votes is sufficient on the third ballot.

Incumbent MP Bodo Ramelow from the Left is running again with support from SPD and Greens, despite the fact that these three parties don't have a majority any longer. Hence he's aiming for that aforementioned plurality on the third ballot.

The AfD has nominated Christoph Kindervater, the independent right-wing mayor of the village of Sundhausen (population: 350).

Thomas Kemmerich, state chairman of the FDP in Thuringia, has also announced that he's running.... but only on the third ballot and only if Kindervater still running on that ballot as well, to prevent the election of an AfD minister-president.

Election is supposed to start in about half an hour or so.


The seat distrubution in the state parliament:

Left 29
SPD 8
Greens 5
(=  42)

CDU 21
FDP 5
(= 26)

AfD 22

[Middle-aged Europe]

Results of the first ballot:

Ramelow (Left) - 43 votes
Kindervater (AfD) - 25 votes
Abstentions - 22

No candidate won a majority (= 46 votes), on to the second ballot

[Middle-aged Europe]

Results of the second ballot:

Ramelow (Left) - 44 votes (+1)
Kindervater (AfD) - 22 votes (-3)
Abstentions - 24 (+2)

No majority for Ramelow, on to the third ballot. If Kindervater doesn't withdraw, the Kemmerich candidacy should be formally announced now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kemmerich (and Kindervater) are running in the third ballot. I wonder if it has ever been the case in post-WWII Germany to have three candidates for minister-president and not one of them is from either CDU or SPD?

There was also some speculation that the AfD may keep Kindervater as their official candidate on the third ballot while sort of stealth-voting for Kemmerich now and hence making him minister-president instead of Ramelow. That seems unlikely though. In any case, we're soon gonna see.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I was utterly wrong. Kenmerich was just elected MP. Game over.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Results of the third ballot

Kemmerich (FDP) - 45 votes
Ramelow (Left) - 44 votes
Kindervater (AfD) - 0 votes

[Middle-aged Europe]

I was utterly wrong. Kenmerich was just elected MP. Game over.

With AfD support?

Yup. They used their own candidate as sort of a trojan horse.

[Middle-aged Europe]

- Thomas Kemmerich is the second FDP minister-president of a state in German history, following Reinhold Maier who had served as minister-president of Baden-Württemberg from 1952 to 1953 and its precursor state Württemberg-Baden from 1945 to 1952.

- The FDP is currently the smallest party in state parliament barely making it past the 5% threshold in last October's election.

- Prior to today's ballots, Kemmerich had offered the Thuringian SPD to retain their ministers in case he's elected indicating that he prefers some form of CDU-SPD-FDP minority coalition. If the SPD doesn't agree to this a snap election just may have become much more likely.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is this the first ever Minister-president from FDP then? Kinda reminds me of some similar screwed up situations locally here lol

See my post above.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Excellent. Hopefully this sort of coalition is replicated at the federal level after the next election.

What coalition?

[Middle-aged Europe]

"It is now imperative that Kemmerich makes it clear that there won't be a coalition with the AfD" - Mike Mohring, Thuringian CDU state chairman

[Middle-aged Europe]

- Thomas Kemmerich is the second FDP minister-president of a state in German history, following Reinhold Maier who had served as minister-president of Baden-Württemberg from 1952 to 1953 and its precursor state Württemberg-Baden from 1945 to 1952.

Slight correction: From 1945 to 1946, Theodor Tantzen Jr. briefly served as the British occupation authority-appointed minister-president of the short-lived state of Oldenburg until it was merged with Lower Saxony. So, technically Kemmerich is the third FDP MP, although he is the second democratically elected one and the also the second since the formation of the Federal Republic.

[Middle-aged Europe]

IMO the best solution for Thuringia was a Linke-SPD-Green-FDP government.

FDP forming a government with the Left is about as (un)likely as the FDP forming a government with the AfD.

Realistically, the current options are:
1) A government of "non-partisan experts".
2) A CDU-FDP minority cabinet.
3) A CDU-SPD-FDP minority cabinet.
4) A CDU-SPD-Greens-FDP minority cabinet.
5) A snap election.

I would suppose Kemmerich will explore options 2 through 4 first now?

[Middle-aged Europe]

In first reactions, SPD and Greens have ruled out joining Kemmerich's government due to him being elected with AfD votes.

My current prediction would be: We're gonna see another parliamentary election in Thuringia sometine this year. Likelihood: At least 70%?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Would a snap election in Thuringia solve anything?

Not necessarily. Maybe a second try at a Left-SPD-Greens (or CDU-SPD-Greens-FDP) minority government?

Considering that Bodo Ramelow is by far the most popular politician in Thuringia and given the likelihood of another election this year and the FDP's meager election result in October 2019 it's also a fair question whether the FDP just managed to self-terminate itself from the parliament?

It's complete chaos. The AfD just helped elect a minister-president who has the smallest possible parliamentary support anyone can have.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, member of the FDP federal executive board, on Kemmerich's election:

"To let yourself get elected by someone like Höcke is under democrats unacceptable and intolerable. Therefore this is a bad day for me as a liberal."


Ruprecht Polenz, former CDU secretary-general and former chairman of the Bundestag's foreign affairs committee:

"The CDU can't join a FDP government which is tolerated AfD. There should be a snap election as soon as possible."

[Middle-aged Europe]

What was Kemmerich's actual plan? There was never any way he could have topped the poll without the AfD voting for him, so was this intentional or just an attempt to be too clever by half?

That's a very good question that will probably fill the political talk shows for the next couple of weeks.

Maybe he never really had a plan except for "let's see what happens" in addition to severely underestimating the potential repercussions from getting elected MP by the AfD. I mean, as things are going right now I wouldn't completely suprised if someone in the FDP now files for expelling Kemmerich from the party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kai Wegner, CDU state chairman of Berlin:

"Under no circumstances can the AfD participate in this government. Thuringia needs a government of the center consisting of CDU, SPD, FDP and Greens."

[Middle-aged Europe]

Dorothee Bär, CSU state secretary in the Chancellery, wrote earlier today on Twitter: "Congratulations, dear Thomas Kemmerich!"

Bär has now deleted that tweet.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Josef Schuster, President of the Central Council of Jews in Germany:

"I'm shocked that the FDP chairman in Thuringia has gotten himself elected minister-president with the votes of the AfD. With this action, the FDP is leaving the consensus of the democratic parties not to cooperate with the AfD or accept the support of the right-wing populists."

[Middle-aged Europe]

Charlotte Knobloch, former President of the Central Council of Jews in Germany and currently Commissioner for Holocaust Memory of the Jewish World Congress:

"Thomas Kemmerich's election as minister-president of Thuringia with the votes of the AfD is the breaking of a taboo without precedent in the younger history of our country. Even with unclear majorities: A MP who's only getting into office with the votes of right-wing extremists can't be possible in a democracy."

[Middle-aged Europe]

Any recent poll?

Infratest dimap (January 28, 2020) - in comparison with the election result from October:

Left 32% (+1)
AfD 24% (+0.6)
CDU 19% (-2.7)
SPD 8% (-0.2)
Greens 6% (+0.8 )
FDP 6% (+1)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gerhart Baum (FDP), former federal minister of the interior (1978-1982):

"A whiff of Weimar is lying over the country. The evil is back."