🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/robbee82/status/1443093241092521985?s=21


(What "TKKG" is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TKKG)

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On Friday, there will be a second rounds of talks between Greens and FDP.

FDP is then planning to talk with the CDU on Saturday, and with the SPD on Sunday.

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Annalena Baerbock has just said that the Greens are planning to talk with the SPD on Sunday, but unlike the FDP they haven't scheduled a meeting with the CDU yet. But it is probably gonna happen sometime next week.

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https://www.twitter.com/dunchaban/status/1443155910642343937

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What kinda concerns me is that my Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann is a member of the negotiating team this weekend. Back in spring, he decided to continue the (state) coalition with the CDU against the overwhelming will of the Green base and their MPs and although both SPD and FDP wanted a trafficlight coalition under Green leadership.

Kretschmann is only one of the ten member strong Green negotiating team, and he kind of gets balanced out by Claudia Roth, Ricarda Lang, and Sven Giegold also being on the same team. The group is apparently designed to represent the whole spectrum of the party, and Kretschmann is obivously the most conservative one.

I attended the Green election night on Sunday and you would have had a hard time to find anyone there who actually preferred Jamaica. I certainly haven't met anyone. It's not just the CDU, but on top of that the fact remains that Armin Laschet is an incompetent buffoon who you wouldn't for Chancellor.  What I did hear there was a certain concern that we could end up with Jamaica after the FDP derails Traffic light on purpose.

[Middle-aged Europe]

On Friday, there will be a second rounds of talks between Greens and FDP.

FDP is then planning to talk with the CDU on Saturday, and with the SPD on Sunday.

Annalena Baerbock has just said that the Greens are planning to talk with the SPD on Sunday, but unlike the FDP they haven't scheduled a meeting with the CDU yet. But it is probably gonna happen sometime next week.

Btw, FDP secretary-general Volker Wissing has said this evening that there is actually no meeting with the CDU scheduled for Saturday so far. They had only invited the CDU for Saturday but the Christian Dems have now turned it down due to scheduling reasons.

So, FDP and Greens will only meet the SPD on Sunday and talks with the CDU will maybe happen sometime next week.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What are the main differences in terms of refugee policy for the traffick light coalition?

I assume the overall difference between traffic light and grand coalition would probably be marginal in the grand scheme of things and refugees weren't really much of a priority these two past years anyway... except recently with Afghanistan although in that case there was a consensus to get former German employees out and to suspend deportations to the country, a consensus where really only the AfD excluded itself.

I would assume that the Greens will push for more open refugee policies, the FDP would largely serve as a stand-in for the CDU/CSU, and the SPD would argue to stay the course (although the fact that the new SPD caucus has now a higher proportion of Jusos who are probably more pro-refugee could move things a bit here). The net result would be as mentioned above: no major changes. Then again, I can't really see refugees as an issue that could derail the Traffic light talks in any major way.

When it comes to the larger issue of immigration, both Greens and FDP will probably argue for more open policies with regards to labour migration to Germany though. This is probably the most significant change I'd expect and not so much on the area of refugees.

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If the FDP does indeed torpedo Traffic Light, bit the Greens refuse Jamaica, could we then get Afghanistan if the CDU sees another opportunity to be in power? It might be overkill given the size of said coalition

There alternatives are either another grand coalition (under Scholz) or early elections.

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Green Bundestag caucus leader Katrin Göring-Eckardt further distances her party from the CDU/CSU by saying that the CDU is at present not ready for coalition talks let alone a future participation in the government. This is probably significant coming from a prominent representative of the party's Realo wing who, as the 2017 lead candidate, had negotiated Jamaica back then.

And FDP deputy caucus leader Stephan Thomae has said that he still prefers a coalition with the CDU/CSU, but that he wouldn't know at present "whom to call in the CDU" with regards to potential coalition talks.

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It is now being reported tat the FDP plans to meet with the CDU on Sunday, the same day the SPD will talk to Greens and FDP.

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CDU and Greens are going to meet on Tuesday now. According to CDU secretary-general Paul Ziemiak this invitation was opposed in the CDU presidium by Saxony's minister-president Michael Kretschmer.


The timetable for the next couple of days looks like this now:

Friday - Greens+FDP
Sunday - SPD+FDP, SPD+Greens, CDU/CSU+FDP
Tuesday - CDU/CSU+Greens

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The AfD parliamentary group shrinks from 83 to 82 MPs, as one of the freshmen is considered too right-wing and thus not becoming member of the group. He might get guest status though, which would avail him to participate in group conferences.

Too rightwing ? How so?

And what's the reason they'd want him participating in group conferences but not as a member of the group?

Matthias Helferich is his name. He called himself the "friendly face of national socialism" on his facebook page back in 2013. He insisted that this was an ironic statement, quoting criticism from the left against him. Still, not a good look. He was elected on the party list before the posting was discovered.

Actually, that was the most prominent, but not the only Helferich incident in that manner.

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New Infratest dimap post-election polling numbers


Which coalition represents a fresh start?

Traffic light 51%
Jamaica 18%
Neither 24%



Would Olaf Scholz be a good Chancellor?

Yes 50%
No 30%



Should Armin Laschet resign as leader of the CDU?

Yes 66%
No 23%



Same question as above, but only with the responses of CDU supporters

Yes 60%
No 36%

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Forschungsgruppe Wahlen post-election polls


SPD 28% (+2 compared to election result)
CDU/CSU 20% (-4)
Greens 16% (+1)
FDP 13% (+1.5)
AfD 10% (+/-0)
Left 5% (+/-0)


Opinion of Traffic light coalition
Good 59%
Bad 20%

Jamaica coalition
Good 24%
Bad 62%

Grand coalition
Good 22%
Bad 60%


Greens will decide in favour of...
Traffic light 78%
Jamaica 9%
Don't know 13%

Same question as above, but only with the responses of Green supporters
Traffic light 92%
Jamaica 6%
Don't know 2%


FDP will decide in favour of
Traffic light 51%
Jamaica 33%
Don't know 16%

Same question as above, but only with the responses of FDP supporters
Traffic light 51%
Jamaica 46%
Don't know 3%


Which coalition will come to pass in the end?
Traffic light 77%
Jamaica 10%
Don't know 13%

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FGW polling numbers continued...


The bad results of the CDU/CSU were caused by
Armin Laschet as candidate 40%
The CDU's political platform 7%
Both 49%

Same question as above, but only with the responses of CDU/CSU supporters
Armin Laschet as candidate 65%
The CDU's political platform 5%
Both 27%


Should Armin Laschet resign as leader of the CDU?
Yes 63%
No 26%
Don't know 11%

Same question as above, but only with the responses of CDU/CSU supporters
Yes 62%
No 34%
Don't know 4%


Should the CDU/CSU enter a Jamaica coalition or go into the opposition?
Jamaica 17%
Opposition 74%
Don't know 9%

Same question as above, but only with the responses of CDU/CSU supporters
Jamaica 40%
Opposition 49%
Don't know 11%


The next government should be led by...
SPD 72%
CDU/CSU 23%
Don't know 5%


Who should become Chancellor?
Olaf Scholz 76%
Armin Laschet 13%

Scholz for Chancellor support broken down by party supporters
SPD 98%
CDU/CSU 49%
Greens 92%
FDP 61%
AfD 55%
Left 72%


Satisfaction with the election results
Satisfied 49%
Dissatisfied 46%

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"The likelihood that there will be a traffic light coalition is not only obvious but also very high. The SPD has won the election." - Carsten Linnemann, deputy leader of the CDU/CSU caucus in the Bundestag

"I assume with a high likelihood that we will go into the opposition and that Olaf Scholz will lead a traffic light coalition." - Carsten Körber, leader of the Saxony state chapter in the CDU/CSU Bundestag caucus

[Middle-aged Europe]

Tagesspiegel did an interesting analysis of the election results in Berlin.

https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/abgeordnetenhauswahl-berlin-2021-karte-ergebnisse-wahlkreisergebnisse-stimmbezirke-ost-west-s-bahn-ring/

According to the analysis, Berlin can not only be divided politically in the former eastern and western parts of the Cold War, but also in the areas inside and outside of the Berlin Ringbahn ("Circle Railway") that surrounds the more central parts of city:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Ringbahn
 
In fact, the political division seems to be even greater when you separate the city by Ringbahn instead of the East/West distinction.


Bundestag election result for former West Berlin
SPD 24.3%
Greens 23.7%
CDU 18.5%
FDP 10.0%
Left 8.1%
AfD 6.7%
(Turnout: 75.0%)

East Berlin
SPD 22.3%
Greens 20.5%
Left 16.1%
CDU 12.3%
AfD 10.8%
FDP 7.9%
(Turnout: 75.4%)


Inside of the Ringbahn
Greens 35.0%
SPD 20.6%
Left 14.2%
CDU 10.1%
FDP 8.3%
AfD 4.0%
(Turnout: 78.3%)

Outside of the Ringbahn
SPD 24.6%
CDU 18.4%
Greens 17.0%
AfD 10.3%
Left 10.2%
FDP 9.4%
(Turnout: 74.1%)

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FDP is scheduled to meet with both SPD (afternoon) and Union (evening) today. SPD and Greens will also meet in the evening. FDP Leader Christian Lindner and his General Secretary Volker Wissing in recent comments aleady seem to slowly distance themselves from the Union. Wissing said something like "the Union must resolve whether they speak with one voice." Lindner stated: "CDU and CSU must clarify whether they actually want to lead a government. Some from within the CDU speculate their party might be back in the game after negotations for a trafficlight coalition failed. This is unconscionable for the country." Lindner wants a government formed before New Year's eve.

Meanwhile, 2017 SPD Chancellor candidate Martin Schulz called upon Laschet to resign after clearly losing the election. And even CDU Deputy leader, Health Minister and Laschet ally Jens Spahn demanded renewal of his party, both in terms of political contents and leadership. Whatever that means...

Hardly a surpirse, leadership of the Green Youth announced their staunch opposition to a Jamaica coalition and preference for a government led by Social Democrats.

Yeah, bottomline is that leading figures of the FDP continue to underline the greater ideological commonality with the CDU/CSU while at the same time starting to publicly question the readiness and willingness of the Union parties to enter (and lead) the next government. Could be considered a sign that the FDP is positioning itself for Traffic light and that the talks with the CDU serve the purpose of showing their own base that they had at least tried to make Jamaica work.

[Middle-aged Europe]

FDP is scheduled to meet with both SPD (afternoon) and Union (evening) today. SPD and Greens will also meet in the evening. FDP Leader Christian Lindner and his General Secretary Volker Wissing in recent comments aleady seem to slowly distance themselves from the Union. Wissing said something like "the Union must resolve whether they speak with one voice." Lindner stated: "CDU and CSU must clarify whether they actually want to lead a government. Some from within the CDU speculate their party might be back in the game after negotations for a trafficlight coalition failed. This is unconscionable for the country." Lindner wants a government formed before New Year's eve.

Meanwhile, 2017 SPD Chancellor candidate Martin Schulz called upon Laschet to resign after clearly losing the election. And even CDU Deputy leader, Health Minister and Laschet ally Jens Spahn demanded renewal of his party, both in terms of political contents and leadership. Whatever that means...

Hardly a surpirse, leadership of the Green Youth announced their staunch opposition to a Jamaica coalition and preference for a government led by Social Democrats.

Yeah, bottomline is that leading figures of the FDP continue to underline the greater ideological commonality with the CDU/CSU while at the same time starting to publicly question the readiness and willingness of the Union parties to enter (and lead) the next government. Could be considered a sign that the FDP is positioning itself for Traffic light and that the talks with the CDU serve the purpose of showing their own base that they had at least tried to make Jamaica work.

Some politicial observers already say trafficlight might be the better option of the FDP and some of their leading figures secretly prefer it. A red-green-yellow government would allow the Free Democrats to occupy the centrist or pro-business/solid budgets lane that otherwise the Union would do and pose as a "corrective" for SPD and Greens when it comes to economic growth. CDU/CSU may find themselves in further misery as they would seem more or less obsolete. Their "competence values" in polls have already massively declined when it comes to economic policy.

Also, Lindner isn't stupid and can read polls. In the most recent ZDF survey, even most FDP voters now prefer that option and think it more stands for renewal to saving Laschet into a Jamaica coalition.

The majority for Traffic light among FDP supporters is still a rather slim one so Lindner has to make the effort to bring everyone on board. But yeah, he also said today that the "red lines" for a goverment participation of his party are no tax hikes and no more debt. I guess this was directed at SPD and Greens rather than CDU/CSU.

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INSA post-election poll

SPD 28% (+2)
CDU/CSU 21% (-3)
Greens 16% (+1)
FDP 12% (+0.5%)
AfD 10% (+/-0)
Left 5% (+/-0)

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As it is also being reported, Markus Söder and the CSU probably don't want Jamaica because a Traffic light would give Söder the opportunity to run as Chancellor-candidate against SPD, Greens, and FDP in four years as opposed to a Jamaica coalition where Laschet (?) is Chancellor and the CSU can't really attack the Greens or the FDP in political campaigns.

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While the content of the recent Greens/FDP, SPD/FDP, and SPD/Greens talks remained super-secret, someone apparently leaked specifics from yesterday's CDU/CSU/FDP meeting to the BILD which in turn caused the FDP to be pissed at the Union parties as evidenced by a tweet from FDP offical Johannes Vogel which was then retweeted by Christian Lindner.

https://mobile.twitter.com/johannesvogel/status/1445048792236142598

The Tagesspiegel newspaper speculates that the leak must have come from anti-Laschet forces within the Union, more specifically the CSU, in an attempt to sabotage the Jamaica talks.

https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/charakterlos-miese-nummer-sondierungs-leak-bei-union-bringt-fdp-und-laschet-lager-in-rage/27675552.html

On the other hand, the leaked information could cause bad blood between FDP and Greens, because Lindner allegedly said in yesterday's meeting with CDU/CSU that he wants Jamaica and that it is now the CDU's job to "pull" the Greens towards that coalition model, asking Laschet & Co. whether they are ready and willing to do that.

[Middle-aged Europe]

While the content of the recent Greens/FDP, SPD/FDP, and SPD/Greens talks remained super-secret, someone apparently leaked specifics from yesterday's CDU/CSU/FDP meeting to the BILD which in turn caused the FDP to be pissed at the Union parties as evidenced by a tweet from FDP offical Johannes Vogel which was then retweeted by Christian Lindner.

https://mobile.twitter.com/johannesvogel/status/1445048792236142598

The Tagesspiegel newspaper speculates that the leak must have come from anti-Laschet forces within the Union, more specifically the CSU, in an attempt to sabotage the Jamaica talks.

https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/charakterlos-miese-nummer-sondierungs-leak-bei-union-bringt-fdp-und-laschet-lager-in-rage/27675552.html

On the other hand, the leaked information could cause bad blood between FDP and Greens, because Lindner allegedly said in yesterday's meeting with CDU/CSU that he wants Jamaica and that it is now the CDU's job to "pull" the Greens towards that coalition model, asking Laschet & Co. whether they are ready and willing to do that.

Lmao, goes my imagination too far to at least consider this could be a stab in the back move by Söder or someone close to him? The guy wants Laschet gone and no Jamaica coalition so that he run a "Bavaria first" campaign in 2023 against Chancellor Scholz and the trafficlight coalition and subsequently position himself for 2025.

Considering that it has been rumoured for years (even on Bavarian public media: https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/csu-rivalen-seehofer-und-soeder-ziemlich-beste-feinde,QclPkBt) that Söder was the one who had leaked the existence of Seehofer's extramarital child to the BILD your assumption is probably entirely correct.

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Greens also attack CDU for the FDP/BILD leak, saying they fear the same could happen with today's talks between them and the CDU:

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/gruene-kritisieren-union-101.html

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/cem-oezdemir-und-juergen-trittin-zweifeln-an-verhandlungsfaehigkeit-der-union-a-6e0529ea-799b-4dd2-97b1-cf368075bc7c