Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I can’t believe people are taking a victory lap now. Just wait for real results.

Noting the idea that turnout being low among Ds is not happening=/=taking a victory lap.
Noting that people who first voted for Obama in 2008 are now reliable D voters=/=taking a victory lap
The vast majority of people who have posted in this thread do not think this race is safe T-Mac.

I stand by my belief that trying to draw any inference, positive or negative, from turnout outside of Nevada EVs is a fool’s errand. People are definitely celebrating an uptick in McAuliffe’s outlook and I have seen this so many times before.

Well, one can draw some inference, but not much, perhaps.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Thread https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455603057006465025

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

A win is a win no matter what. A 2 point win is not "pathetic" or a loss. It's a win. Full stop.

For citizens of VA - sure. But as bellwether for Dem in 2022, it's pathetic*.



*if it's confirmed by other elections. One election don't tell us much.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

*NSW
https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455606297647190024?s=20

Where the data is coming from. It seems like a random account with 870 followers.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455624008662233093
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455624011380035592
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455624014433509388

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455627337509314574?s=20

It almost sounds crazy to me that record high turnout in a D+10 state does not automatically benefit the democrats yet here we are

Early turnout experts, I see.

Wasserman is predicting 2.8M-3.1M total turnout, but 2M on Election Day seems unlikely.

I cant even take Dave Wasserman seriously at this point lol

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Hopefully we can call Youngkin , YoungKing after tonight

Cringe

BRTD makes king jokes all the time , so why can’t I . Especially since it rhymes here 

BRTD is cringe, too.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455635356326502405

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455627337509314574?s=20

It almost sounds crazy to me that record high turnout in a D+10 state does not automatically benefit the democrats yet here we are

Early turnout experts, I see.

Wasserman is predicting 2.8M-3.1M total turnout, but 2M on Election Day seems unlikely.

I cant even take Dave Wasserman seriously at this point lol

Wow, talking about taking my comments of context

Vaccinated Russian Bear I thought you were better that

My statement about not being able take Dave Wasserman seriously was because moments earlier he had just put of a tweet that ended being wrong and then he had to delete it.

my comment had nothing to do with turnout
it was was simply me saying that I no longer took Dave Wasserman tweets serilously at that point

Yawn. I repeat, Dave Wasserman has a good track records. And if you think, that him confusing some stats (while embarrasing, it one-time f**kup) somehow disproves that, well, that say more about you.

Re: Virginia. He predicted it might be a close race. In April!
He predicted much higher than 2017 turnout today in the morning, which you, guys, totally disbelieved.

That is, it is pretty clear, whom we should not take seriously.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455636884680544259

Ч.Т.Д.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455638175309828104

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1455640808540057602

Yep. This. But obviously, it can work other way around as well.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Where are the Exit Polls?

Biden is 43% approval in the exits. Trump is 41% approval. Economy is top issues for voters at 33%.

Biden 43 vs 41% Trump? Link?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Jeez. Biden 43/56 = it's a close race, indeed.

*if exit polls are not totally off.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455640901792014338

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455642243398840331

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I see the Atlas pendulum has begun to swing once again.

No, not Atlas, but there were 3-4 turnout experts, kinda claiming Safe D.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The Fox poll was right. RIP.
https://twitter.com/usa_polling/status/1455645290648719361?s=21

Jesus f**king Christ.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Important to note, McAuliffe had similar numbers in 2013 and won.

Source? But, yeah, the exit polls confirms the race is close/Lean R, not that Youngkin will win.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I'm glad Atlas doesn't have a Needle like NYT. That thing would be going from Safe D to Lean D to Lean R to Safe R to Titanium R in the last hour alone...

Does the Times have a needle? I don't see it.

Unfortunately not.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

In 2013 54 percent of voters disapproved of Obama’s job performance, according to the exit polling. But 30 percent of those who “somewhat disapproved” of Obama nonetheless voted for McAuliffe.


https://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/terry-mcauliffe-virginia-governor-2013-elections-099441

This is from an old politico article

18 points difference in favs, as preliminary exit polls show.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

dead heat based on turnout but not on exit polls wich favor rep.

I'm not taking the exit polls as seriously as they're often unreliable.

An exit poll that models the VA electorate as 73% white is probably unreliable, no?

Turnout indicate it as well. Moreover, both nationally and VA polls indicated that T-Mac/Biden had problem with non-white + indies.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Exit polls update throughout the night anyway, so the first batch isn't necessarily the most accurate.

Yes. But it can go either way.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Wat

Yeah I question the validity of these early exits strongly

Also recalled 2020 vote choice was 46-46 Trump-Biden

Ouch.
Yeah, bin it.

People are embarrassed, they voted for Joe