Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

There is no good reasons to think, that their polls are showing anything different than the public ones. And public polls' results  are "scary" for Democrats.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Now I understand that both sides are very passionate, but if Biden can keep most of his disagreements mostly behind closed doors than why can't Bernie and joe Manchin act like adults and do the same....

Wasn't it Sinema's approach? 100% behind the doors, contacting only Biden + a couple of his team + couple of Senators. Otherwise it would be leaked.

Hopefully in the next week we get:
-one more CBS/YouGov (maybe tomorrow?)
-one more Monmouth (they're doing NJ tomorrow, maybe VA by next Sunday or Monday)
-Washington Post/Scholar poll (they did one in late Oct 2020 and did one in Sept 2021, but nothing yet)
-one more CNU
-one more Wason
-possibly one more Fox?
-possibly one more Emerson?

It doesn't appear Q-Pac is doing VA anymore, which is surprising considering they nailed the race in 2017.

My guess, you'll try to unskew at least 75% 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Is this really the debate Youngkin wants in the final week?

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1453099113835270144

He's going to run on banning books?

Well, per article:

The 2016 bill, had McAuliffe signed it, would have made Virginia the first school in the nation to allow parents to block their children from reading books containing sexually explicit material in school. At the time, McAuliffe reasoned in a statement issued with the veto that because the Board of Education is already considering this issue in a broader and more complete context, I believe House Bill 516 is unnecessary."  

The House tried to override his veto but came one vote shy. In January 2017, the Virginia Board of Education rejected a proposal to warn parents about "sexually explicit" content in their child's assigned reading.

A similar bill, Virginia House Bill 2191, would have allowed parents to review the assigned readings and . That also was vetoed by McAuliffe in 2017.

Give a possibility to parents to opting out their kids from reading "books containing sexually explicit material" or "submit alternative readings if desired" ≠ ban books.


Btw, the article ends with

A poll released on Tuesday by Suffolk University asked if parents or school boards should "have more of an influence on a school's curriculum?" It found 50% of overall respondents and 57% of independents said parents should have more of an influence.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1453146251810181122

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

T-Mac and his team leaning into this - the whole thing is kind of backfiring on Youngkin. Now it looks like he put some crazy lady on TV who wanted to ban a book by an award winning black author because her AP studies son "was scared"

https://twitter.com/DNCWarRoom/status/1452785923490463744

That’s the right play for McAuliffe; Youngkin has run an amazingly weak campaign and his anti-book insanity is the sort of thing thing that will play horribly in suburbia regardless of the results.  That and Youngkin’s opposition to anti-COVID regulations are his two biggest weaknesses (well…there’s also the fact that his campaign doesn’t seem to have a clue what it’s doing, but I’m talking policy/messaging).

Sure, Jan.

A poll released on Tuesday by Suffolk University asked if parents or school boards should "have more of an influence on a school's curriculum?" It found 50% of overall respondents and 57% of independents said parents should have more of an influence.

With your "definition" 50% of VA voters and 57% of Indies wants more "anti-book insanity" influence to parents.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I agree to disagree. As I said, in my opinion giving a possibility to parents to opting out their kids from reading "books containing sexually explicit material" or "submit alternative readings if desired" ≠ ban books.

In my opinion, it's a winning issue for Youngkin, and it's McAuliffe, who's shooting himself in the foot by elevating it.

Also, it's like 538th time, you guys say, Youngkin's X has backfired hehe haha, yet polls has been indicating even tighter race, than it already was. IMO, there is overall (not just polls) more evidence, that McAuliffe is backfiring than vice versa.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Suck. They don't talk about it, nor single it out. The only thing, they did, was using Laura Murphy in an ad.

It's McAuliffe who [desperately?] want to move focus from his comments about parents to "muh they want to ban Beloved!!!!!!11111". Hopefully, no voters will fall for this bs.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1453327455599702024

Well, we'll find out soon enough, if it works or not.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Suck. They don't talk about it, nor single it out. The only thing, they did, was using Laura Murphy in an ad.

It's McAuliffe who [desperately?] want to move focus from his comments about parents to "muh they want to ban Beloved!!!!!!11111". Hopefully, no voters will fall for this bs.

Let's just be honest about this you and I know full well that these political campaigns don't just put random people in their ads without doing any research or background on them

Glenn youngkin and his team knew full well what that Laura Murphy was trying to ban beloved and he still put her in his ad anyway. He is not the innocent bystander that you seem to want to portray him as

Also, I agree that McAuliffe is clearly going to use this issue to distract from his own problems, but by the end day I don't blame him at all for that because Youngkin and GOP are the ones who handed him this great political gift in the first place lol

Of course, they knew, who she was. It was the whole point. Put a "controversial" (controversial only among woke libs, normies don't give a f**k) figure in the ad, in order to get attention to the issue they think (and polls confirm it), they are winning. Now not only media, but even McAuliffe talk about it (like I said, I don't believe "swinger" voters will fall for "muh they want to ban Beloved"). That's why I thought, that it was McAuliffe who is shooting himself in the foot and hans Youngkin "this great political gift".

Now, of course, both Youngkin's campaign and the polls might get it wrong, but it's their strategy. Perhaps, you're right and it will backfire, but, as I said, I think that elevating parents vs McAuliffe is a winning strategy, given what polls indicate.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Spent a bit of time with all the polling I could get my hands on (both public and private) and reconciled it with early voting indicators, some voter file analysis, roughshod modeling, and general observations of fundamentals. Came down with the takeaway that Youngkin can win, but he'll need one/both of a) a Democratic turnout collapse that early voting indicates is not happening and b) a sizeable improvement with independent and softer Democratic voters that polling indicates is possible but a tall order.

One thing that struck me is that Youngkin's best polls aren't actually showing this improvement. Rather, they're showing him gaining among Black voters and non-college whites. Its easy to dismiss this (Black voters being historically inelastic and non-college whites already supporting Republicans in massive numbers) and I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed, but there are also some explanations that are quite plausible:
     

• The increasing educational/religious polarization is starting to take hold of Black voters in a manner similar to Hispanic voters last cycle.
• Educational polarization is superseding urban/rural polarization among white voters, and non-college whites in urban areas (there are quite a few in VA) are abandoning Democrats.
• The remaining Democratic non-college white voters are planning to sit this election out.

Again, think it's much more likely these polls are just highly flawed and that McAuliffe/Youngkin's coalitions will be par for the course and unremarkable. But on the off chance they're actually just ahead of the curve and picking up on a burgeoning realignment, think it could have fascinating implications for the rest of the decade and could certainly lead to some hilarious dummymanders down the line.

Thanks, but why do you think, that "I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed"? Historical data or anything else?

I mean, as you said, there were some realignments among Latinos in 2016/2020 [and Blacks in 2020]. Pre-election polls did indicate that, but was disregard, because "muh, they can't vote for Trump LMAO".

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

very bold move by fox

Its one thing to claim glenn youngkin will win but a blowout not even the Trafalgar Group is willing to go that far...

fox is truly on their own island on this one because not a single other poll, including the ones that came out yesterday showed anybody leading by more than 1 or 3 points

bottom line either their results will be correct on election day or fox news is about to become the biggest joke in polling history

Willing? It seems like you think, that Trafalgar and Fox make up a numbers instead of just putting out, what they get.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What I think is interesting here is the comparison to CA, in that we had the same issue in CA where pollsters did not understand who was going to show up, and expected a very large turnout edge from Rs.

Now, things reversed course in CA and polls got better for Newsom towards the end. But was that because things truly turned around in a matter of weeks, or pollsters had a better understanding of who actually was showing up?

Pollsters have no "understanding" that they change from poll to poll. They have a model, based on historical pattern (if there is a voter file) and on what the voters actually say to pollsters.

So, what happened is that the (D) voters started to say to pollsters, that they are gonna vote/already voted/enthusiastic to vote etc. Pollsters don't make up this like hmmm, it feels like more young Democrats start to vote, let's change the LV-screen matrix.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What I think is interesting here is the comparison to CA, in that we had the same issue in CA where pollsters did not understand who was going to show up, and expected a very large turnout edge from Rs.

Now, things reversed course in CA and polls got better for Newsom towards the end. But was that because things truly turned around in a matter of weeks, or pollsters had a better understanding of who actually was showing up?

Pollsters have no "understanding" that they change from poll to poll. They have a model, based on historical pattern (if there is a voter file) and on what the voters actually say to pollsters.

So, what happened is that the (D) voters started to say to pollsters, that they are gonna vote/already voted/enthusiastic to vote etc. Pollsters don't make up this like hmmm, it feels like more young Democrats start to vote, let's change the LV-screen matrix.

You pour guys getting so hyped up for a Youngkin win really need to tame expectations. This has Democratic version of Florida/Iowa/Ohio all over it.

I think, I have fairly tamed expectations. My base scenario is still Tilt-ro-Lean-D, but not gonna lie, latest polls and especially this one have made me feel the possibility of Youngkin's win starting to takes shape. Like 2-3 weeks ago, I thought Youngkin needed a perfect storm, and now I'm starting to feel the wind and see the first lightings before the storm. But, perhaps, it'll just go away.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The fact that the democrats in Virginia don’t want parents involved in their kid’s education is horrifying and I hope the voters of Virginia punish them for it

There’s a world of difference between parents being involved and letting them call all the shots and believing that they know better than teachers.

Exactly.  Parents being personally involved in their children's education is great.  Parents giving input to school boards and professional educators is great.  Parents overruling those professionals and defining the curriculum is a terrible idea.

Well...

A poll released on Tuesday by Suffolk University asked if parents or school boards should "have more of an influence on a school's curriculum?" It found 50% of overall respondents and 57% of independents said parents should have more of an influence.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

First of all, the McAuliffe quote about "parents not being able to decide the curriculum" or whatever has been blown WAY out of proportion. I mean parents don't get to decide every single part of the curriculum, that's literally not their job. Sure they should have input, they can vote for school board --- or run for it.

I have to ask, is it true that this sample was 50-49 Trump? Because that's kind of important info being left out if that's true.

It's not just a quote, he vetoed a bipartisan "bill permitting parents to block sexually explicit books in school".

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Strawmanning again, I see. That's why Youngkin, perhaps, has a momentum. There is a real issue whether the parents can have more say about the curriculum that the currently do.

Instead, T-Mac/Dems are ranting about terrorists and "crazy right-wing christian dictating" the rules. JFC.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453892526948114452

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454065548673880074
Good Nate Cohn thread on the Fox poll

I was about to post it.

The best part is:

In general, if you're going to unskew a poll, you should unskew it using data that can/should be used for weighting, not based on whether the poll findings comport with your expectations.

wbrocks, I'm watching at you.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

He also has a good thread about the Ads in VA. As I said later people here/on Twitter should not make a lengthy analysis based on 2 (out of hundreds) ads .


https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454096457091461132
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454096459410857984
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454097546889121793

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So far, you have only "analysed" the twitter-ads the hurt your Woke bubble's feelings. Thank you very much.

"Strangely", you've never talked about these TV-ads for normies

"The Youngkin ads, that i've seen, critique mcaullife on parental choice statement, and then Youngkin--speaking to camera--goes on to support for teacher raises and the largest education budget in VA history".

Hade I lived in the bubble, that actually believed, Youngkin only defends "domestic terrorists", I'd, too, have thought, it's Safe D.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Lost in this conversation about Youngkin "momentum" (which I don't believe is real) is the fact that 1/3 of people who will vote have already voted.  So even if you believe Youngkin is doing better now, 1/3 of the votes are already locked in.  And it's not just hardcore partisans who vote early.  Some people prefer to vote by mail or on the weekend.

Not only that a very big deal, more people in the media should be talking about it

Why? Simply put, during all the election it's only undeciders/leaners who are of interested (all the movements happens there).


Also. The polls INCLUDE early voters. And they are showing, it's a close race, DESPITE that. Obvsl, they might be wrong, but it's a different question.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So far, you have only "analysed" the twitter-ads the hurt your Woke bubble's feelings. Thank you very much.

"Strangely", you've never talked about these TV-ads for normies

"The Youngkin ads, that i've seen, critique mcaullife on parental choice statement, and then Youngkin--speaking to camera--goes on to support for teacher raises and the largest education budget in VA history".

Hade I lived in the bubble, that actually believed, Youngkin only defends "domestic terrorists", I'd, too, have thought, it's Safe D.

Question.  When Youngkin loses are you going to delete these posts and/or will you just move on to the next election like nothing happened just like CA?

I see, you move the goalpost from Safe D to Youngkin lose. NICE!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Hopping back into the election for a moment, what are the areas of the state to watch come election night?

My political knowledge of VA is largely limited to NoVA = Democratic, not-NoVA = Republican. 

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453852175046783029

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

From Roanoke College poll

When asked who should have control over the curriculum in public schools, teachers (43% great deal of control and 44% some control) and parents (41% great deal of control and 41% some control) scored the highest. School boards (27% great deal/54% some) and administrators (29% great deal/51% some) rated higher than local, state or federal governments.