2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324072369091186695

Predicting Markets still give Trump ~20% (and 90% GOP Senate majority). A bit too high, probably, but not unrealistic. I'd give ~10%.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

There was nothing inappropriate about my post that was deleted in this thread.

If you think the next four years is going to be all rainbows and kittens and kumbayas, you are incredibly naive.

You just watch. These armed confrontations between BLM and the redhats are just the beginning, and all I can say about that is I thank the Lord I don't live in D.C. or any other major city. Because it's going to become very ugly, and very bloody.

Depends how the media would cover such conflicts. At the end of the day, we're going to have to focus back on COVID-19 and getting money into people's hands and getting jobs back. Don't let these fringe people dominate the narrative, Far-Left & Far-Right goons do this as some cosplay therapy while you also have opportunists that could care less about what those two factions are fighting about as long as they can loot which then comes to a class issue and wage disparities in this country. It's a big problem that needs to be addressed eventually.

LOL, not happening. Media loves this narrative of Big Fight.. and that's it.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

1) New cabinet

2) Undoing Trump's executive orders

3) No more Trump-appointed judges. Sure he'll still have to go through McConnell, but at least we can stop the bleeding.

4) No more spur-of-the-moment major military decisions or presidential decrees by tweet

5) We can at least start to rebuild our reputation abroad

That's a lot!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

If Trump loses, how does the lame duck session end up? What will Trump do?

Sell off the White House furniture.

And leave a BIG poo in the middle of it  

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324098639749406720

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Great summary and post, kudos.

YW, we gotta keep our heads on straight here.  Stick with hard numbers and provable stuff.  Don't overreact to trolling and misinformation from the Trump campaign, but I'm also not buying anything from mainstream pundits or journalists unless they've got hard numbers to back them up.  The last 16 hours has just been an exhausting flurry of "M votes remaining in X county, with N% expected to go for Biden; P% are mail-in and Q% are early-vote" and such reports have frequently been wrong.

An easier way is to simply stick to experts who know their stuff. I have been basically just reading what Nates have to say the whole day. And last 12 hours or so, it was basically ~Likely Biden if nothing strange happens. And, indeed, nothing strange happened apart from some weird "stuff" about AZ.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108206801563650

I know I like it when my President talks to me in a way that looks like I'm installing malware.

LOLed

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I would love to know which animal Ann Selzer sacrifices to the gods each election cycle in exchange for accurate polls.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324130040414720001

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

NyT:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi acknowledged a “challenging election” in a letter to Democrats, after multiple first-term House Democrats lost their seats to Republicans.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1324146718250860544?s=20

They probably tried to cheat, but it wasn't enough to steal it from Trump. Need more fake ballots! RIGGED!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The first thing Biden needs to do as president is impose sanctions on the R*ssia. I don't care for what or why, just impose sanctions.

He probably won't. Not so fast, at least. Biden will first make a deal about Obama's nuclear arms treaty with Russia.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324152903364304896
Biden +4.3 is not good to be clear, but it does indicate that states like Arizona and Georgia (and even North Carolina) are moving left faster than the nation at large. This would be good news for the 2024 nominee.

(Nevada + Arizona + Georgia + North Carolina + Minnesota = 275)*
*census will change totals slightly

Implies that National Gold Standard Pollsters were wrong by 5-7 points. Ugh.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Rupert must be calling Fox News asking them to be the first network to push Biden above 270, twisting the dagger.

Rupert is smart. Fox will make a lot of good PR of it.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CNN saying that Trump's team is anxious about GA right now, and that "they did not see this coming".

Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same.

This, but

Cocaine Mitch
      vs
Biden's Agenda (RIP)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

I've read a lot theories today here. Some about Hispanics, some about Males. Somehow, all of them end up that whoever voted for Trump is a dumb old irrational sexist voter who voted for Trump out of love to Macho Daddy Trump.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 5, 7:18 AM

Good morning, early birds! Overnight, both Georgia and Arizona tightened some but are still led by Trump and Biden, respectively. While we aren’t expecting to get our next update from Maricopa County in Arizona until 9 p.m. tonight, Georgia is expected to finish counting its remaining 25,000 ballots today. Elsewhere, Nevada will announce more results starting at noon Eastern, and we continue to get results at a steady pace in Pennsylvania — which may be Biden’s best chance to end this race.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324334248229326849

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1324386750026993671
 

Is it because of Trump being a first Dove President in modern history of US och because of Muslims being more conservative than average American (abortion etc). Just don't start with racist "They like Macho" thing.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Wasn't Dems anti-capitalist? Only Oligopolistic Big Tech (Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook,Microsoft) accounts for like 5% of US GDP? Greedy capitalists, anyone?

Gi! As I said earlier Dems turning into Wealthy White Lib party. CA votes for pro-Uber semi-slaving measure, while Florida votes for $15 minimal wage. What a time to be alive!

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/04/tech/california-proposition-22/index.html

Imagine if Nancy spent her time fighting this, not Trump Stimulus Bill. But why would you fight a friend?

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11/uber-lyfts-proposition-22-was-a-warning-shot-to-democrats.html

Or Harris’s brother-in-law, Tony West, who is the chief legal officer for Uber. Anthony Foxx used to be Barack Obama’s Transportation secretary; now he’s Lyft’s policy chief. If Democrats want to be taken seriously as the party of working-class people, that pipeline has to close for good. But its very existence is a symptom of a more serious illness.

Dems as "the party of working-class people"? 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I frankly don't join that sneering view of the white working class quite so much. That point can simply be limited to as I noted that Republican series about effect of liberal Progressive governance and supposed to struction of wealth production simply don't comport with reality. Even closely. At all.

I'm more concerned that these poor and working-class whites are supporting Trump not because they give a rat's ass about Republican Economic Policy, but because they don't believe there's any meaningful distinction between the parties on that front. That said, I am not convinced it all by the left wings argument all they need to do is run a Bernie Sanders style Democratic socialists and these working-class whites will Rush to embrace real economic change.

https://twitter.com/forevertawl/status/1294424061590867968

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325890297390374913


https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1325821178238410752

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326369139452239872

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1325824446616248320

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1326526690558955520

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1326575307248308224