COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1471843921651249152

Bloomberg: U.K. Study Finds No Evidence Omicron Cases Are Less Severe Than Delta

A previous Covid-19 recovery provides little shield against infection with the omicron variant, a research team from Imperial College London showed in a large study that underlines the importance of booster shots.

Having had Covid probably only offers 19% protection against omicron, the study showed on Friday. That was roughly in line with two doses of vaccine, which the team estimated were as much as 20% effective against omicron. Adding a booster dose helped dramatically, blocking an estimated 55% to 80% of symptomatic cases.

The Imperial College London team analyzed all the PCR test-confirmed Covid cases in England between Nov. 29 and Dec. 11, making it one of the most expansive examinations yet at omicron’s potential to evade the body’s defenses. The results were in line with the picture emerging of the variant’s capacity to elude protection from previous infection or inoculation and spread faster than previous iterations of the virus.

There was no evidence of omicron cases being less severe than delta, based on the proportion of people testing positive who had symptoms or went to the hospital, the team said.

Just how severe omicron cases will be remains unclear. It’s too soon to say how hospitalizations will play out in the U.K. In South Africa, which announced the discovery of the variant on Nov. 25, authorities said on Friday the rate of hospitalizations seems to be lower than during the country’s earlier wave of delta infections.

The title is a bit sensationalist, because it's based on "proportion of people testing positive who had symptoms or went to the hospital", but the main take away that a lot of potential mildness depends partly on much higher rate of breakthrough infections. Immunity, regardless if it from previous infections or 2 doses, shields from deaths/severe outcomes, but it's not all as effective against re-infection.

Having had Covid probably only offers 19% protection against omicron, the study showed on Friday. That was roughly in line with two doses of vaccine, which the team estimated were as much as 20% effective against omicron. Adding a booster dose helped dramatically, blocking an estimated 55% to 80% of symptomatic cases.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Hospitalization rate dramatically lower than previous waves:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-12-17/s-africa-hospitalization-rate-falls-91-in-omicron-wave-video

The South African Health Minister says the country’s hospital admission rate as a percentage of new Covid-19 cases identified fell 91% in the second week of the current infection wave driven by the omicron variant. That was compared with the same week of the third wave.

Duh. Yeah. It's how immunity works. In UK the hospitalization rate of Delta was dramatically lower than previous waves as well.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/adamlongoTV/status/1471950816059793422


First lockdowns. Of course, it's the [overrrepresentedly brown poor] kids that are hurt. Dems.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/JennaPNews/status/1472224569125654534

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/CarlosdelRio7/status/1472219278736777218



New study from Denmark.

Hospitalization (1.5% for Delta vs 1.2% for Omicron) and intensive care (0.11% vs 0.13%) rates are similar, but very small sample and different age and vaccination status population (only unadjusted data?). For instance in case of Delta 44% was unvaxxed, while with Omicron only 14% are unvaxxed. Can explain possible mildness. But even with more "severe" Delta, the death rate is 0.07% in Denmark. If you're vaccinated, you're safe as f**k.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Question:

Do 2 doses of a mRNA vaccine protect you from a severe omicron case, or do I need a booster?

One google search suggested 2 moderna shots provides substantial protection against severity

One suggested 2 shots totally useless

Booster shot increases protection greatly, to over 80% from what our Health Minister said. Four or five months after the second dose protection is down to about 35%.

mRNA vaccines are certainly better than Vector vaccines.

He asked about protection against severe omicron decease. ~35% number is the protection against being infected, not against severe infection.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

That movie was awesome, but it's starting to feel like the beginning of the pandemic. No live audience for SNL, professional sports games being delayed, long lines of people to get tested. At least there's plenty of toilet paper though. 🧻

Remember, how I was mocked for warning you, lockdowns are coming? It was 2 days ago. Sure, technically there is no lockdowns. Only school being closed, shows and sport being cancelled, mask mandates being reintroduced and some restaurants being closed as well. And the peak of Omicron lies weeks ahead.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Just based on chats I've had with folks at UPENN's resident center for COVID research (and other infectious diseases, blah blah), the response to Omicron should lie somewhere in the middle -- there's no need to hit the panic button, but it should still serve as a reminder that COVID isn't "over".  Don't fear-monger, but be responsible.  

Thanks for the insight, it's appreciate in a thread like this. Anything else that the people at the COVID research center said about the variant that's useful to know?

Quite a bit of medical jargon that I'm too lazy to repeat here, but it all boiled down to "this is a serious matter, but there's a fine line between justifiable concern and sensational panic."

I have a friend of mine fighting off a breakthrough case right now.  She went to a party where she was exposed to a girl who (a) was experiencing symptoms and (b) knew that she could potentially be positive, but this girl attended the party anyway because she was "tired of talking about COVID".  

Now most folks aren't this brazen or inconsiderate, but just be smart and be responsible -- vaccinated or not. 

Ehhh….debatable.

Yeah, I consider "unvaccinated" and "smart" to be mutually exclusive.

Do you think that ~70% of African population are not smart? Yes, the access to vaccines plays a role, but the " vaccine hesitancy" is important (imo, most important), too.

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1466020479702077446
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/01/world/africa/coranavirus-vaccine-hesitancy-africa.html
The Next Challenge to Vaccinating Africa: Overcoming Skepticism
Vaccines are finally available in many African countries, but an underfunded public health system has slowed their delivery, and some people there, as well as in South Asia, are wary of taking them.

And now, there are growing signs in parts of Africa, as well as South Asia, that skepticism or outright hostility toward the Covid vaccines may run deeper than expected, even as the new and possibly more dangerous Omicron variant is spreading. In Africa, at least three countries have now reported Omicron cases: South Africa, Botswana and, on Wednesday, Nigeria.

Deep distrust of governments and medical authorities, especially among rural and marginalized communities, may already be stalling out vaccination drives. The legacy of Western exploitation and medical abuses during and after colonialism is weighing heavily, too.

Misinformation circulating on social media often fills the vacuum, some of it floating in from the United States and Europe, where vaccine refusal has also been an issue.

“There’s no doubt that vaccine hesitancy is a factor in the rollout of vaccines,” said Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the Africa director of the World Health Organization. News or rumors of potential side effects, she said, “gets picked out and talked about, and some people become afraid.”

Just days before the Omicron variant was first detected, health officials in South Africa turned away shipments of doses from Pfizer-BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson, worried that their stockpile of 16 million shots might spoil amid insufficient demand.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I've been reading a lot of conflicting reports. Some are saying that South Africa is faring better than expected. However, others studies are saying there's no evidence Omicron is any less severe than previous variants.

The reports so far have had fairly small sample sizes, and found "no evidence"--the lack of evidence is not confirmation. Remember, early studies of the original strain also found "no evidence" that the virus was airborne, or that it spread without symptoms, or that masks were required--all of which evidence became abundant as time went on.

Actual data coming out of South Africa conflicts with this and does in fact show a dramatic decline in severe cases and deaths. Logic dictates that it is in fact less severe, the question is simply to what extent.

I believe, you conflate 2 things. The Omicron wave is definitely  much milder, and so was even Delta. Not only it's true, it is expected, because of immunity accumulated either by vaccines (rich world) or being infected (South Africa).

Whether Omicron virus is [much] milder is still an open question. Difficult to say, because of higher immunity + higher share of reinfections (take a look at this picture >>>


Omicron renders vaccine/immunity to reduce decease by a lot, but not so much [re]infections, so between 1 & 2, while Delta is between 2 & 3.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Corey Booker tests positive

2nd Senator today (Liz w was the other)

Given that both are boosted, the likelihood it's Omicron is pretty high. Which, if they have communicated a lot with others (which makes sense, given BBB) might lead that almost every Senator is soon infected.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Someone should really make a convenient web app where you can enter your age, demographics, co-morbidities, and vaccine status and it will output an estimate of your probability of getting infected and dying of covid.

Would be really nice.

Not exactly but here is somewhat similar, but it's only for unvaxxed. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator

Note, that this likely overestimates the risks, because of unreported cases. If you're vaxxed divide by 10-20 (young and healthy by 20, old and sick by 10).

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Moderna says their booster increases antibody protection 37-fold.

Does that mean protection is just 37%?

Sorry, I’m an idiot who needs a dumbed down explanation.

Level of the antibodies is 37 times higher after booster (50 micrograms). 83 times higher for 100 micrograms.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The original goal of the vaccines was to prevent hospitalization and severe illness.

They all do that.

But we got very lucky with Pfizer and Moderna that they largely stop even omicron infections but obviously not perfect. Look at me..

But selling vaccines as a way to stop infection was always dubious

but I am confident .. with the rate we developed these jabs, we will have credible vaccines that will stop infections entirely before 2024.

Media "Scientists" 2020: We're lucky if we'll get a 50% effective (against deaths) vaccines in next 10 year, stupid.
Media "Scientists" 2021: Only 90%? We're so f**cked. Stay home, stupid.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It does seem to me that the original vaccine dose was probably overly conservative just to make sure its safety was unquestionable (at least among actual scientists).

But have they actually tested a sufficient number of alternative doses?

E.g. what would happen if you gave someone 20x the original does?  It is possible that could be enough to completely ward off the possibility infection?  Is this even being tested?

Likely, the side effects would be much worse. Even Moderna that is probably just marginally better than Pfizer and has 3 times lagers dose has its problem vs Pfizer - 3 times higher risk of heart inflammation.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1471905563587997698

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The Delta variant has been displaced, for better (or worse)

In UK, which has an excellent data, Delta is only partially displaced (esp. among vaccinated). It looks more like Omicron is adding additional cases. Based on data from UK:
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1473032130984873988

The scenario where they coexists seems now more likely than a couple of weeks ago. Though, if you're vaccinated/boosted, it doesn't really matter (so long), nevertheless it's fascinating.

Travel bans clearly do not work in preventing viruses or virus variants from entering the country, so we need to think of better methods.  Let this be the last time we ever try this tactic.

Travel bans are not for a total prevention (and Police are not for total eradication of crime - should one abolish police?) of virus coming to the country. They are for giving extra time to be prepared. A lot of vulnerables had time to get a booster because of travel ban. Now this time it gave ~3-5 times less time, because Omicron is ~3-5 times faster than Delta, but who knows who fast the next virus [variant] will be. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1473259953989328902
Nice. In a parallel universe, where Biden signed BIF in July, there are no mandates, and the message above is his mantra since the summer, Biden's approvals are probably at 50%, Dems hold VA and probably Senate, if not Congress, in 2022.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1473318224204910593

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1473382744336093194

Sleepy Joe has awaken! Should have been hammering this message from the summer. Sending military doctors to hospitals is good, too.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/GregStohr/status/1473408907108405249

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

To anyone who says this pandemic is nearly over, I'd encourage you to look at vaccination rates in places like Nigeria.

The issue in Africa is not lack of vaccine supply, it's lack of vaccine demand and poor infrastructure for delivering them. Multiple articles have come out about this, saying that 45% of the vaccines delivered to Africa have not been administered, SA asked vaccine companies to halt shipments, etc. This is a talking point that seriously needs to die.

If you think that, then I honestly think you might be a little sociopathic. Variants are going to emerge in places where less vaccines are available.

Unless you're okay with Africa being a COVID petri dish for the next twenty years or so, which i can only assume you and anyone who recommended your comment are.

Did you even read what he wrote? It's not an opinion, it's a fact. Africa lacks "vaccine demand and infrastructure for delivering them".

Moreover Africa, at least some countries like South Africa has probably higher immunity than many other countries due to many infections (80-90% per different estimations has been previously infected), why they weathered Omicron pretty well, it seems.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1473591598697041921

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-minnesota-pandemics-covid-19-pandemic-d2e77c86caa98078248cd6bd75f09150
As COVID fueled the drug crisis, Native Americans hit worst

As the pandemic ravaged the country, deaths from drug overdoses surged by nearly 30%, climbing to a record high. The drug crisis has also diversified from an overwhelmingly white affliction to killing people of color with staggering speed. The death rate last year was highest among Native Americans, for whom COVID-19 piled yet more despair on communities already confronting generations of trauma, poverty, unemployment and underfunded health systems.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1473623053900918795

Good, though, still not "adjusted" for 80-90% of pop. are estimated to have "natural" immunity.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

british study show that omicron is no more mild of delta if you see too age, just omicron get more infection in younger and these, like all the other variants, get mild or low level symptom more easy

South African study (pre-print) is adjusted for age, too. Moreover, they adjusted for previous infections.

In the data that are being submitted to a preprint medical publication -- MedRxiv -- the authors adjusted for various confounding factors that could influence the results, including age, gender and whether the cases were known reinfections. For severity of disease after admission, they also adjusted for the presence of other illnesses and prior immunization.

The problem is "known" infection rate is jut 5% in SA, while estimated i 90% (even before Omicron).

That's why the study from UK and Denmark will shed much more light.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

There was never a reason to “distrust” South African data that for weeks has been showing a milder wave.

There is. Very bad testing. In west "true" cases estimated being underreported by 2-5 times. In South Africa by ~20 times.

Immune people usually get mild, if any symptoms, and 90% are "naturally" immune in SA because of Delta wave.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NewDay/status/1478365316048736257

What the hell? The first (D) politician that cares about kids from poor families, not about wealthy lib donors TDS! 🤯

He's really, really good. Totally owns and debunks CNN's talking points. WOW!