COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

@ Sbane

It was a long messy post, my point is that I haven't yet seen a realistic timeline of (D) Pr response that would've been significantly better than Trump's without restrictions of flights from China and later Europa. In this case you've have needed even more testing, so how would (D) have fixed that in early March?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Whether a President Clinton would have reduced casualties by 98-99% or merely 70-80%

Or more realistically (IMO) a big increase due to Travel Restrictions against China likely would be implemented way later. Reminder how exponential growth works
A 1,000 additional due to NOT HAVING FLIGHT BAN cases would become a 1,000,000 in a month under the assumption that doubling rate time is ~3 days.



Re: lagging of testing

CNN has a good overview:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/us-coronavirus-tests-invs/index.html

The CDC's first test didn't work
In January, shortly after Chinese authorities identified a novel coronavirus as the cause of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, the World Health Organization published a protocol with instructions for any country to manufacture tests for the virus.
Rather than using that protocol, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed its own test. A WHO spokesperson said this week that the WHO didn't offer tests to the CDC because the US agency typically has the capacity to manufacture them itself.
On February 5, the CDC said it would begin shipping test kits to health labs throughout the country, but in subsequent days public labs found a defect. When public labs first receive any test kit, they first verify that it works.

A CDC official said on February 12 a part of the test needed to be remanufactured.

Michael Mina, an assistant professor of epidemiology and immunology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said that in addition to originally sending out flawed tests, the CDC added to the confusion by providing limited information to labs in the weeks that followed.

Jeremy Konyndyk, an expert on global pandemic preparedness, agreed that significant delays resulted from the CDC sticking with only its test.

Fauci has said the CDC has for years followed a process of developing its own test and providing that to public health departments throughout the country.
Though when asked during CNN's coronavirus town hall last week whether the US should have used the WHO tests, Fauci said, "If you look back and Monday morning quarterback it would have been nice to have had a backup."

While some blame of lame testing is, obviously, on Trump, most aren't (read article). So stop pretend like with Hillary you'd have a magical wand and million tests per day. People in CDC failed. Including Fauci. They likely wouldn't be overruled by Hillary (because Hillary muh listens to experts). Stop pretend like they would.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Not interested in arguing with the Internet Research Agency, it’s beyond dispute that community spread in the U.S for months while Trump downplayed the crisis is why so many people will needlessly die.

You just claimed you thought it would be hundreds or thousands deaths with Hillary. Not even the Internet Research Agency would spread such disinformation even though they're working overtime trying to sow discord  in US with baseless claims

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Wow, look at the tracker today. Nearly every state seeing decreases in new cases compared to yesterday. Looks like the tide has turned more quickly than anyone expected and Trump has saved the country from disaster, expect a big approval bump.

Hopefully, but it could also just be the Sunday/weekend effect that we've seen before.

Nate Silver appears cautious, too

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1246822933026267136
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1246825582471647233

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Putting Russian Bear on super ignore was the best decision for my mental health.

And happiness too swiftly flies.
Thought would destroy their paradise.
No more; where ignorance is bliss,
'Tis folly to be wise 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1246837549546553346

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1246894412472483841
From the reassurance of the Queen's speech, to this.

The official statement says he plans to remain in charge of the government, and this is not an emergency appointment. Isn't really all that reassuring though. Nothing like the PM being admitted to hospital on a Sunday night (21.30 local time)

That "admitted to hospital" (vs. taken to hospital, etc.) is troubling to me, especially ten days after initial diagnosis.  

What's the difference?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1246909791680770050

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

Data as of Apr. 6 at 3:03 a.m.

Cases per day:

Deaths per day:


Per state, total:

Per state, per capita:




Caution that there's probably some under-reporting during the weekends.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Oh I know it was bureaucratic nonsense but the buck stops with Trump. It was his own people doing the bungling. He did finally put his foot down and got the testing flowing, like it is now. It was just a few weeks too late. We can only speculate if Hillary or someone else would have done better, but Trump's government screwed it up. That is what we know for sure.

As I said my understanding that it's what experts-epidemiologist (not bureaucratic) of CDC decision to proceed like this. If there is any evidence that experts of CDS were demanding more testing, but Trump/his bureaucrats screw it up, link to it.

I already linked to CNN article that explained about CDC routines, here is 538 about testing and diff vs South Korea
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-coronavirus-tests-actually-work/

Compare that to South Korea, where people can get their results in about a day. There, the government had been stockpiling the necessary chemicals for years after COVID-19’s cousin MERS briefly hit that country in 2015. That helped the country move quickly to approve and decentralize testing as soon as COVID-19 arrived.

See, a structural problem that US governments didn't stockpiled, not specifically Trump's or Obama's. Most European Countries are doing worse/same.

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1245449988186025985

Bug and feature of US system.

Even now states like mine just aren't testing enough and they aren't recommending tests unless you fall under a strict criteria.

Take a look at Europe. Even stricter criteria, even less testing for most countries. Explanation is not that their current governments were "bungling", but that their systems are structurally different from US and that most governments have been "bungling" in decades.

Germany is an obvious exception. Fast and massive testing from the beginning.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/upshot/coronavirus-four-benchmarks-reopening.html
How Will We Know When It’s Time to Reopen the Nation?
Experts offer four benchmarks that can serve as a guide for cities and states, eliminating some of the guesswork.

A recent report by Scott Gottlieb, Caitlin Rivers, Mark B. McClellan, Lauren Silvis and Crystal Watson staked out some goal posts

• Hospitals in the state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care.
• A state needs to be able to test at least everyone who has symptoms.
• The state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts.
• There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Really good thread on the difference between "best case" and "worst case" models:

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246957709682806785

Not disputing what he says, but the "worst case" model he mentioned was published 3 week ago, so I assume the data it used is at least month old (from China?). A month is like eternity in a pandemic era. In past month we've got a LOT of new data from Europa and US and know more about the effect of different mitigation efforts, CFR, length of hospitalizations etc.

So my question is basically, do we have more recent models/projection we can look at?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52192604
Coronavirus: Boris Johnson moved to intensive care
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved to intensive care in hospital after his coronavirus symptoms worsened, Downing Street has said.
BoJo...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The model https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Here is the explanations of what and why changed in their model and their predictions.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

Here is comparisons across model updates for all states, that is their predictions of
March 26
vs
April 2
vs
April 5
per state and for US totally.
http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/comparing_dailydeathpredictions_byrelease_all_0.pdf

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Truly, Mr. Trump and his Republicans have made America First!

If you think, it is fair to compare Spain (47mln) and US (327 mln), you should also think it's fair to compare NY (20 mln) and Kansas (3 mln). Kidding, I know, it's bad-faith from ya.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1247251363148554245
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1247252854877949952

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Just because NY isn't exploding like it was before doesn't mean it's over. The #s are exploding in numerous other states right now.

What are these numerous other states where the #s are exploding? One or two, perhaps, but even there the #s look much better then NY's during its worst period.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1247260880233836553
...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

Data as of Apr. 7 at 3:04 a.m.


Cases:

Deaths:


Deaths, per state, raw:

Deaths, per state, per capita:





Totally 10,908 deaths.
NY + NJ = 4,758 + 1,003 = 5761 or 53% of all deaths.

New deaths yesterday 1,164:
NY + NJ = 599 + 86 = 685 or 59% of all deaths yesterday.


NY + NJ will peak sooner, but it's still possible, if not likely, that they will account for 50% of all cases in US.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: NYC vs SF


https://twitter.com/germanrlopez/status/1247210000155643904

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1247292616519147522
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1247295225850142722
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1247299333512454144
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1247302362361999360

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

That's beyond ridiculous. It should be vise versa. Mr. Trump should not contradict them. If he's unable to do so, he better just stays silent and does what experts tell him to do, like using the Defense Production Act to a higher degree. We badly need more medical equipment produced in the US. We can do it and even produce enough to export these goods.

What experts say that  you should use DPA to a higher degree?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-3m-masks.html

But in this case, the administration is invoking the law to compel 3M to send to the United States masks made in factories overseas and to stop exporting masks the company manufactures in the United States. Those moves, some trade and legal experts fear, could backfire and prompt foreign governments to clamp down on desperately needed medical necessities destined for the United States.

But some administration officials worry that the Defense Production Act is now being weaponized against specific companies and that it could undermine incentives for other companies to offer help. Others warned that using the act to control a company’s overseas production would put that company in the difficult position of being forced to violate its previous obligations to foreign customers to comply with the demands of the American government.

“It’s D.P.A. by impulse,” said Jeffrey Bialos, a former under secretary of defense for industrial affairs for the Clinton administration.

He said the administration should instead use the law as leverage.

“You have the carrot and the stick,” Mr. Bialos said. “If you were a sophisticated person or group doing this you would use the carrot and the stick to get more from the industry today to facilitate production for the future.”

Previous administrations have also been hesitant to invoke the law for nonmilitary matters.

If the federal government used the law to make itself the priority, other clients that had worked through the company’s procurement process could have their orders delayed, though under the law, the vendor is protected from lawsuits.

“My general experience is when you’re in the midst of a national crisis, contractors generally speaking want to help,” said Ernest B. Abbott, who was the general counsel of FEMA during the Clinton administration. “They want to participate. They want to be able to keep their people employed to build what’s needed for the nation.”

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

IHME updated their model and now it includes EU as well. They project 152,000 will die in EU (first wave) of which 66,000 in UK. Obviously, a lot of assumptions, high uncertainty and so on.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Data as of Apr. 8 at 4:03 a.m


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/


Cases:

Deaths:



Deaths, per state, raw:

Deaths, per state, per capita:



Totally 1939 deaths were registered yesterday of which 52% are from NY + NJ.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

As it seems, the IHME model will be updated on daily basis as new data comes in.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

They revisited down a total deaths projection of US from ~80,000 to ~60,000 [31-126 thousands].

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AEI/status/1247883157657063424