Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[ugabug]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

Same. Previous invasions of Iraq by USA in 2003 were no faster for the area covered.

Ukraine has an area of 600,000 sq.km. Iraq is only 400,000 sq. KM.

That is a monstrous amount of land to cover in an invasion.

The southern coast is the Russian's primary goal at present. If they take Odessa, Ukraine is completely cut off by sea. Then they can close the gaps.

Exactly Ukraine is a large country so how exactly is Russia planning on occupying all of it while their economy continues to fall? If a Russian "victory" is getting a Afghanistan style insurgency right on their border with a people who often times speak the same language as them and will likely be armed by neighboring countries who are sympathetic to Ukraine then i have to wonder how much of a victory that actually would be.

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https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1500412291459784704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

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A twitter thread on Russian logistics for those who may find it interesting.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1500213943012319252?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

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https://twitter.com/lostweapons/status/1500400072932003842
So far only Ukranian sources are reporting this so be skeptical, but if true this is major. Belarus Troops refusing to follow orders from Lukashenko, could mean an end to his dictatorship.

Unrest in Belarus will certainly help out Russia with their supply issues in the North.

[ugabug]

Here's a translated Russian article about what it's like in the Kremlin at the moment.

https://ilyalozovsky.substack.com/p/what-russian-officials-think-of-the?showWelcome=true&s=w

this part in particular is interesting.

“Putin now seriously believes what [Defense Minister] Shoigu and [General Staff chief] Gerasimov are telling him: About how quickly they’ll take Kyiv, that the Ukrainians are blowing themselves up, that Zelensky is a coke addict.”

So far, none of the officials have dared to object to what’s happening in the slightest public way, much less to resign.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1500502132721688577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

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This is rather sad if true.

https://twitter.com/LtTimMcMillan/status/1500515723491295234?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

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https://twitter.com/YourAnonTV/status/1500557635686486023?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1500696413788938241

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1500696413788938241

Reminds me a bit about the "Coalition of the Willing" here. I.e. the US tries to get wide-ranging European support, fails, decides to just go it alone with some closer European allies (Denmark, UK, etc).
This war keeps minting Iraq 2003 parallels. It's eerie.

I see where you're coming from but i don't think that parallel works here because i think the countries that aren't going along are still sympathetic to what we're doing here (certainly more sympathetic than when we invaded Iraq) but are currently to entwined with Russian oil to want to make a clean break just yet.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1500637716601458688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

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https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1501220756361035778?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

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https://twitter.com/EamonJavers/status/1501230944002670593?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

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https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1501220756361035778?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

Let's hope this at least accelerates the end of Putin, as he has no viable exit path. He will have ruined Russia's economy for years and sacrificed thousands of Russian soldiers for practically nothing. Anyone in Russia with at least a little sense for reality must conclude that there's just no path forward with this guy.

Also for that matter how badly this has ruined not only his prestige and reputation but that of the Russian military as well. From the badass, bare shirt horse riding, genius chess master who was constantly catching the west flat footed to the man who's to scared to be near anyone and who's dumb enough to turn the entire western world against him. Then the Russian military which was suppose to roll over Ukraine in days but is now being stopped by doors and elevators.

[ugabug]

Seems like they expect the Russians to stall for a bit. Not all that surprising considering the logistical problems the Russians been having.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-08-22/h_130058ab82420ac3a5b1b22effcce5f7

NATO official says Russia not expected "make any gains in the next few days" in Ukraine
From CNN staff

Despite using all of the forces it had concentrated in and around Ukraine, Russia is still making very little progress, with NATO’s current intelligence assessment suggesting Moscow is unlikely to make much progress in the foreseeable future, a NATO military official told CNN.

"We see very little change,” the official said, citing the alliance’s latest intelligence assessment. “For the first time, we don’t expect them to make any gains in the next few days.”

They are putting in everything they have and are still making very little progress,” the official explained. “No one thought they would face these simple problems. After two weeks, they still haven’t been able to solve their logistics issues.”
The official conceded Russia had been able to make some marginal gains, especially in the South, but said the expectation was Moscow should be moving much faster at this stage.

“With all their armor they should be moving much faster,” the official said.

The official also said the shift in strategy to more direct targeting of key urban centers, which led to heavier bombardment of some cities, also had produced “no big effect.”

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https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1501713416574193673?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

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https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1501913452796907533

[ugabug]

Here's a interview with the retired former general of the 7th army that's well worth a watch if you have 40 minutes to spare.

He talk's about the entire kerfuffle around the Polish jets to why he thinks Ukraine will win in the end and why he thinks a possible attack on Odessa would be a mistake.

[ugabug]

Here's a interview with the retired former general of the 7th army that's well worth a watch if you have 40 minutes to spare.

He talk's about the entire kerfuffle around the Polish jets to why he thinks Ukraine will win in the end and why he thinks a possible attack on Odessa would be a mistake.

tl;dr thumbnail version, especially re: the Polish jets, for those of us too busy/lazy/attention span deprived to take 40 minutes to review?

He talks about the planes from around the 2 minute mark to about 6:30 mark of the video so not particularly long and at the beginning but I'll try laying out a tldr.

tldr for the planes is essentially miscommunication led to a lot of confusion in both countries and that transferring aircraft between can be especially complicated when it's between three nations and one of which is currently in a air war. Also sending the equipment from the Ramstein air base could be consider an escalation from Russia and would need to be consider carefully from the Biden administration before doing it.

He thinks Russia will lose is because he thinks Russia is losing on DIME (diplomacy, intelligence, military, and economy). They've invested too much of their military into Ukraine while still not having enough to win, their economy is crashing, Ukraine is winning the information war and the world opinion especially the western world is turning sharply against Russia and relatedly Russia is becoming more isolated diplomatically.

And as for Odessa he thinks the Russians have over extended there selves in the south and a naval attack on Odessa would only make the logistical situation worse even if they are able to take the city.

[ugabug]

Not sure this will be enough for Lukashenko to convince his generals, but getting Belarus involved makes more sense than recruiting ill-equipped fighters half a world away.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1502293369078358024

Everything here needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. That being said, it could be a risky move and cause backlash in Belarus. If Russia actually needs help from them, you know they're in big trouble.

apparently Belarus has one of the worst militaries in Europe
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1498279646529478656

Wonder if Ukraine was one of the other two that was also rated extremely poor.

[ugabug]

RIP
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502298793542303747?s=20&t=x99rf99os4U5-o...

Isn't that the third general they've lost now?

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https://twitter.com/larisamlbrown/status/1502302509905416193

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https://twitter.com/larisamlbrown/status/1502302509905416193

that tells us one of three things:
1.it's not true (though I'm pretty Russia has confirmed at least two of them)
2.Russia is losing Generals at an oddly alarming rate, why?
or 3.Russia really has lost many thousands of men


My money is on number 3.  Though 2 can be true as well.  Even if it's just two KIA, that's still a lot in 2 weeks.

My personal theory is that they're getting a lot of pressure from Putin to hurry up and move and take Ukraine over already so more of them are going to the frontlines to figure out how to get the offensive moving again and in turn getting shot for their trouble.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/4ukraine834614/status/1502321404414472196?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502350416897576967