Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Largest Anti-War Demos in Russia to Date:

"Police arrest more than 3,000 people as protests grow across Russia.

Despite the threat of yearslong prison terms, thousands of Russians joined antiwar rallies across the country on Sunday in a striking show of the pent-up anger in Russian society about President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

The police reported more than 3,000 arrests across the country — the highest nationwide total officially reported in any single day of protest in recent memory. An activist group that tracks arrests, OVD-Info, reported detentions in 49 different Russian cities.

Video from independent Russian news outlets covering the protests showed throngs of people chanting “No to war!” on St. Petersburg’s central avenue, Nevsky Prospekt, and on Moscow’s Manezhnaya Square, just outside the Kremlin walls.

In the city of Kaliningrad near the Baltic Sea, a woman protesting the war was recorded in a video posted on Twitter telling a police officer that she had survived the Nazi siege of Leningrad.

“Are you here to support the fascists?” the officer responded, repeating the Kremlin narrative about the war in Ukraine, before calling over other policemen and telling them: “Arrest them all.”

..."



https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/world/europe/police-russia-protests.html

[Ferguson97]

Not going to imbed the tweet but it's hilarious how bad Russian propaganda has been for this war

https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500505238507249664

Like this is the fakest thing I've ever seen

[NOVA Green]

Wall Street Journal 10 minutes ago:

"Blinken Says Credible Reports of Russian Attacks on Civilians Could Show War Crimes

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said preliminary reports indicate that Russia is deliberately targeting civilians as part of its invasion of Ukraine — allegations that if true would amount to war crimes under international law.

"We’ve seen very credible reports of deliberate attacks on civilians, which would constitute a war crime,” Mr. Blinken said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union." “We’ve seen very credible reports about the use of certain weapons.” He added that the U.S. is documenting the activity and reaching out to appropriate international organizations to investigate.

President Biden said last week that it was clear Russians were deliberately targeting civilian areas but he stopped short of calling it a war crime, saying it was too soon to tell.

Oksana Markarova, Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S., said the country's prosecutor general established a task force to investigate allegations of potential war crimes in the Russian invasion of her country. Ms. Markarova also said she believed that many of Moscow's actions so far amounted to violation of the laws of war.

"They're targeting hospitals. They're targeting schools. They're targeting civilians. They're doing everything possible you can imagine illegal during the war," said Ms. Markarova on "Fox News Sunday."

...."




https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/blinken-says-credible-reports-of-russian-attacks-on-civilians-could-show-war-crimes-IWYPjwa8U7PNBbNuKsrj

[lfromnj]

Not going to imbed the tweet but it's hilarious how bad Russian propaganda has been for this war

https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500505238507249664

Like this is the fakest thing I've ever seen

I mean Ukrainian propaganda is just as blatant but people just want to believe it .

[It’s so Joever]

Thank you for your response. I hope your prognosis is wrong of course.

If the lord is willing, I hope every post on here I make in six months looks like pathetic doomer trolling.

[NOVA Green]

Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant update per WSJ an hour ago:

"U.N. Atomic Agency Says Staff at Ukraine Nuclear Plant Are Under Russian Forces’ Control

The U.N. atomic agency said Sunday that staff at Ukraine’s largest nuclear plant were now under orders from the commander of Russian forces there and that communication channels between the plant and Ukraine’s nuclear regulator had sharply reduced.

...

In its latest report on the situation in Ukraine on Sunday, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Ukraine’s regulator informed them that the plant’s management had been told that all actions, including measures related to the technical operation of the reactors, required prior approval by the Russian commander.

The agency also reported that Russian forces at the site have switched off some mobile networks and the internet so staff can’t communicate reliable information to Ukrainian authorities. Ukraine’s regulator told the IAEA that phone lines, as well as e-mails and fax, were no longer functioning and that mobile phone communication, while possible, now had poor quality.

“I’m extremely concerned about these developments that were reported to me today,” IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said. “In order to be able to operate the plant safely and securely, management and staff must be allowed to carry out their vital duties in stable conditions without undue external interference or pressure.”

...

In one positive development, the IAEA reported that teams of staff were now being rotated at the site, allowing employees to leave and get rest, although Ukraine’s regulator reported that staff were struggling to receive a regular supply of food.

..."


https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/u-n-atomic-agency-says-staff-at-ukraine-s-largest-nuclear-plant-under-russian-forces-control-WGXOBs34EHMvpotAGSuF

[It’s so Joever]

Not going to imbed the tweet but it's hilarious how bad Russian propaganda has been for this war

https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500505238507249664

Like this is the fakest thing I've ever seen

I mean Ukrainian propaganda is just as blatant but people just want to believe it .

Can you blame us? This is one of the few conflicts in World history where there honestly really is a clear cut good and evil side, and it’s the latter which is going to prevail in the end. It’s propaganda which gives people a tiny bit of hope that good will prevail… but it won’t without true NATO support which is clearly not coming.

[Hollywood]

Russia strikes at Ukrainian air bases today

"Russian forces attack airfields in Ukraine as Zelensky pleads for fighter jets

MUKACHEVO, Ukraine — Russia targeted a military air base and a commercial airport in central Ukraine on Sunday, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials, in attacks that could deny Ukraine usable airstrips as Kyiv presses Western allies to send fighter planes to combat Moscow’s invasion.

A spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said the military had struck and disabled Ukraine’s Starokostiantyniv military air base, about 150 miles southwest of Kyiv, early Sunday, using long-range, high precision weapons. The airport was among dozens of targets, including a Russian-made air defense system owned by Ukraine, the spokesman said.

Later Sunday, in a video message, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a missile strike on Vinnystia, about 70 miles southeast of the air base, had “completely destroyed the airport.”



"



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-HD5A5ZR5TBD3HA6BGJPATPXNTY

Bad, bad news if Russia can take out critical airports like that.

They were always going to take out the Ukrainian Air Defense, but they had to be careful of the anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles.  The Ukrainians have a large well-trained army and citizenry.  I think people under-estimated the Ukrainians as if it was the Iraqi Army.  

Right now, Ukraine desperately needs a re-supply of anti-aircraft missiles, but the Russians have pretty much taken out their supply lines from the Dneiper River all the way to the Russian border, and they've encircled many Ukrainian Forces in the East.  Russian has taken out communication, energy deposits, and weapons caches throughout Ukraine.  Mobile Networks are down in many parts of the country.  Food supplies are dwindling to the point where everyone is foraging for food like they're living in the 'Walking Dead' Universe.  The last few days have been devastating.  They literally cannot receive weapons unless it's consistently air dropped.  Good Luck!

[NOVA Green]

Russia strikes at Ukrainian air bases today

"Russian forces attack airfields in Ukraine as Zelensky pleads for fighter jets

MUKACHEVO, Ukraine — Russia targeted a military air base and a commercial airport in central Ukraine on Sunday, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials, in attacks that could deny Ukraine usable airstrips as Kyiv presses Western allies to send fighter planes to combat Moscow’s invasion.

A spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said the military had struck and disabled Ukraine’s Starokostiantyniv military air base, about 150 miles southwest of Kyiv, early Sunday, using long-range, high precision weapons. The airport was among dozens of targets, including a Russian-made air defense system owned by Ukraine, the spokesman said.

Later Sunday, in a video message, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a missile strike on Vinnystia, about 70 miles southeast of the air base, had “completely destroyed the airport.”



"



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-HD5A5ZR5TBD3HA6BGJPATPXNTY

Bad, bad news if Russia can take out critical airports like that.

Yeah--- for sure. Sounds like it was cruise missile attacks (of which reportedly Russia has limited supplies of), rather than air strikes.

There was some updated info in the WP about 20-30 minutes back including video of the strikes (link below):

"Cruise missile attack ‘destroyed’ Ukrainian airport

....

In aftermath videos verified by The Post, firefighters spray down a smoking building cracked in half. They step on the rubble, chunks of concrete and burned metal. What looks like the airport’s command tower is crashed into the ground.

Local people filmed cruise missiles flying toward the airport from up to 15 miles away. While the missiles appeared to come from a southwestern direction, according to The Post’s geolocation of the videos, experts warned against drawing conclusions on the missile’s launch point.

“Cruise missiles can be programmed to fly paths that avoid sensors and defenses, at low altitude around terrain,” Scott Boston, a Russian military analyst at Rand Corporation, told The Post. “This can mislead efforts to determine where they are ultimately intended to go.”

The Russian military has cruise missiles that can be launched by from the sea and ground as well as the air, Boston said.

The missiles probably struck fuel storage tanks at the airport, said Wim Zwijnenburg, a project leader for humanitarian disarmament at the Netherlands-based organization Pax, pointing to the size of the fire ball in the video and the presence of black smoke. The attack would be consistent with Russia’s wider tactic of taking out Ukrainian fuel supplies, he told The Post.

"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-RCOLLQK3UBBM7MPI6KT4URQB2I

[compucomp]

Russia strikes at Ukrainian air bases today

"Russian forces attack airfields in Ukraine as Zelensky pleads for fighter jets

MUKACHEVO, Ukraine — Russia targeted a military air base and a commercial airport in central Ukraine on Sunday, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials, in attacks that could deny Ukraine usable airstrips as Kyiv presses Western allies to send fighter planes to combat Moscow’s invasion.

A spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said the military had struck and disabled Ukraine’s Starokostiantyniv military air base, about 150 miles southwest of Kyiv, early Sunday, using long-range, high precision weapons. The airport was among dozens of targets, including a Russian-made air defense system owned by Ukraine, the spokesman said.

Later Sunday, in a video message, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a missile strike on Vinnystia, about 70 miles southeast of the air base, had “completely destroyed the airport.”



"



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-HD5A5ZR5TBD3HA6BGJPATPXNTY

Bad, bad news if Russia can take out critical airports like that.

Yeah--- for sure. Sounds like it was cruise missile attacks (of which reportedly Russia has limited supplies of), rather than air strikes.

There was some updated info in the WP about 20-30 minutes back including video of the strikes (link below):

"Cruise missile attack ‘destroyed’ Ukrainian airport

....

In aftermath videos verified by The Post, firefighters spray down a smoking building cracked in half. They step on the rubble, chunks of concrete and burned metal. What looks like the airport’s command tower is crashed into the ground.

Local people filmed cruise missiles flying toward the airport from up to 15 miles away. While the missiles appeared to come from a southwestern direction, according to The Post’s geolocation of the videos, experts warned against drawing conclusions on the missile’s launch point.

“Cruise missiles can be programmed to fly paths that avoid sensors and defenses, at low altitude around terrain,” Scott Boston, a Russian military analyst at Rand Corporation, told The Post. “This can mislead efforts to determine where they are ultimately intended to go.”

The Russian military has cruise missiles that can be launched by from the sea and ground as well as the air, Boston said.

The missiles probably struck fuel storage tanks at the airport, said Wim Zwijnenburg, a project leader for humanitarian disarmament at the Netherlands-based organization Pax, pointing to the size of the fire ball in the video and the presence of black smoke. The attack would be consistent with Russia’s wider tactic of taking out Ukrainian fuel supplies, he told The Post.

"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-RCOLLQK3UBBM7MPI6KT4URQB2I

This should have been done on day 1. The Russians have their own history to draw on here; the Germans spent months prior to Barbarossa conducting recon flights over the western Soviet Union to find the locations of Soviet airfields and planes and then basically decapitated the Soviet Air Force, destroying 2000 planes on the ground on day 1 and 4000 in the first 3 days. Recon is even easier nowadays with satellites, so the Russians have no excuse. Were they really expecting to take Ukraine whole with some paratrooper drops and amphibious landings?

[NOVA Green]

NYT reporting from 10 minutes ago on Russian airport strikes, including video:

"Videos capture Russian cruise missile attack on airport in western Ukraine.

A Russian cruise missile attack struck an airport in western Ukraine, some 100 miles from the capital, Kyiv, on Sunday. Videos verified by The New York Times, some of which were first confirmed by the Centre for Information Resilience, based in London, show what are likely land attack Kalibr cruise missiles flying toward Vinnytsia Airport. It’s unclear if the videos show the same missile or multiple ones.

The airport in central Ukraine is mainly used for civilian operations but includes an area for military usage. The missiles hit both civilian and military infrastructure, according to an analysis by The Times.

One video shows a missile flying over a cemetery located less than three miles from the airport. The missile is coming from the south, the direction of the Black Sea. Kalibr cruise missiles are normally launched from ships or submarines, and some variants have a range of more than 1,000 miles.

Several videos also show large fires and a collapsed building at the airport. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that eight missiles had “completely destroyed the airport,” but that number could not be independently verified.

"





https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/06/world/ukraine-russia/russian-cruise-missile-vinnytsia-airport

[NOVA Green]

Largest Anti-War Demos in Russia to Date:

"Police arrest more than 3,000 people as protests grow across Russia.

Despite the threat of yearslong prison terms, thousands of Russians joined antiwar rallies across the country on Sunday in a striking show of the pent-up anger in Russian society about President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

The police reported more than 3,000 arrests across the country — the highest nationwide total officially reported in any single day of protest in recent memory. An activist group that tracks arrests, OVD-Info, reported detentions in 49 different Russian cities.

Video from independent Russian news outlets covering the protests showed throngs of people chanting “No to war!” on St. Petersburg’s central avenue, Nevsky Prospekt, and on Moscow’s Manezhnaya Square, just outside the Kremlin walls.

In the city of Kaliningrad near the Baltic Sea, a woman protesting the war was recorded in a video posted on Twitter telling a police officer that she had survived the Nazi siege of Leningrad.

“Are you here to support the fascists?” the officer responded, repeating the Kremlin narrative about the war in Ukraine, before calling over other policemen and telling them: “Arrest them all.”

..."



https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/world/europe/police-russia-protests.html

fwiw... sounds like the number of Russian anti-war protests arrested is a bit higher and more cities experienced protests per CNN reporting from OVD-Info numbers.

"At least 4,357 people have been detained during protests in Russia on Sunday, OVD-Info, an independent monitoring group that tracks detentions in Russia reports.

People have been detained in 56 cities according to OVD-Info.

CNN cannot independently verify these numbers."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's the source of these casualties?  Ukraine?

Accurate numbers on casualties never exist at this stage during any war. Individual units may have some idea of how many losses they have suffered (though actually won't always) but this information will generally not have filtered up through the chain of command. And any figures as to losses from the opposition will only ever be estimates and approximations. War is not like a computer game.

Nevertheless we can be sure that Russian losses have been heavy: the war is being closely observed and plenty of people have been collating information from different sources and cross-checking things in a methodical manner. Exact figures? No one knows, but it's clearly thousands plural already with an ominous number of military vehicles and aircraft lost and destroyed as well (including some of the most costly and hard to replace in the Russian military). We can also be sure that Ukrainian military losses have not been light and that Ukrainian civilian losses have been heavy.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1500546275455995904

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1500502132721688577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

[ugabug]

This is rather sad if true.

https://twitter.com/LtTimMcMillan/status/1500515723491295234?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[OSR stands with Israel]

Russia strikes at Ukrainian air bases today

"Russian forces attack airfields in Ukraine as Zelensky pleads for fighter jets

MUKACHEVO, Ukraine — Russia targeted a military air base and a commercial airport in central Ukraine on Sunday, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials, in attacks that could deny Ukraine usable airstrips as Kyiv presses Western allies to send fighter planes to combat Moscow’s invasion.

A spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said the military had struck and disabled Ukraine’s Starokostiantyniv military air base, about 150 miles southwest of Kyiv, early Sunday, using long-range, high precision weapons. The airport was among dozens of targets, including a Russian-made air defense system owned by Ukraine, the spokesman said.

Later Sunday, in a video message, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a missile strike on Vinnystia, about 70 miles southeast of the air base, had “completely destroyed the airport.”



"



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-HD5A5ZR5TBD3HA6BGJPATPXNTY

Bad, bad news if Russia can take out critical airports like that.

They were always going to take out the Ukrainian Air Defense, but they had to be careful of the anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles.  The Ukrainians have a large well-trained army and citizenry.  I think people under-estimated the Ukrainians as if it was the Iraqi Army.  

Right now, Ukraine desperately needs a re-supply of anti-aircraft missiles, but the Russians have pretty much taken out their supply lines from the Dneiper River all the way to the Russian border, and they've encircled many Ukrainian Forces in the East.  Russian has taken out communication, energy deposits, and weapons caches throughout Ukraine.  Mobile Networks are down in many parts of the country.  Food supplies are dwindling to the point where everyone is foraging for food like they're living in the 'Walking Dead' Universe.  The last few days have been devastating.  They literally cannot receive weapons unless it's consistently air dropped.  Good Luck!

Well Iraq was fundamentally different cause of the fact Suddam was oppressing a majority of the population and many viewed the US as the lesser evil. Where things started to go wrong in Iraq was the way we implemented de baathification.


The issue with that was given that Iraq was a one party dictatorship for decades at that point, banning any person who had associations with the Ba'th party from employment in public sector jobs was always gonna backfire. The reason is there were probably many Iraqis who had worked in those public sector jobs who were not bad people but because they had to be part of the Ba'th party to get employment and banning them from getting jobs meant we had to build literally every institution from scratch which led to anarchy.

What we should have done is have competent experienced people who not actually horrible people run those institutions and agencies from the start which would have made the transition away from Suddam's Government much more smooth.

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1500170914335445001

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1500551253226573826

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1500502132721688577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

"May".

That's weak.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1500502132721688577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Elsewhere, it is reported that they specified any airfield from which the UkrAF launched sorties. As demonstrated by the Su-27 returning from Romania, this is avoided by sending jets into Ukraine without arms, and letting them arm up on Ukrainian runaways.

They did not go to war with Romania after it did that, so if your source reports their statement correctly, it’s almost certainly bluster.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/nehakhanna_07/status/1500537569050001408

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1500502132721688577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

"May".

That's weak.

This is an empty threat.  Russia is struggling (if not losing) in its war with Ukraine -how does it expect to tangle with NATO, a far superior foe?  

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/visa-suspends-operations-russia-over-ukraine-invasion-2022-03-05/

"Visa, Mastercard suspend operations in Russia over Ukraine invasion"

It seems Visa and Mastercard cards issued with Russian banks and used inside Russia will continue to work.  What will not work is if you are a Russian with one of those cards issued by a Russian bank with a Visa or Mastercard card and try to use it internationally.  Likewise, if you are a foreigner that wants to use a Visa or Mastercard card issued outside of Russia in Russia, it will not work.  If so the impact of this one sounds large but is most likely limited.

One would think the Russian banks could issue their own cards for internal use in short order no? Not that there will be much money to draw upon that is sitting in Russian banks by Russians though. So I think it is a big deal if Russians are cut off from drawing upon funds sitting in foreign banks.

The way Visa and Mastercard works is that they actually do not extend credit.  It is the banks that issue the card that actually extend credit.  Visa and Mastercard only work as network processors.  My understanding is that Russian banks will now shift to using PRC's Unionpay which works a lot like Visa and Mastercard but on PRC as an alternative network processor.

[lfromnj]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/russian-stores-limit-sales-of-food-staples-as-sanctions-start-to-bite/

When Putin said back to go the good old days of the USSR he also meant the bread lines !

[Frodo]

Russian 'brain drain' of academic, finance, and tech workers 'might be the most important problem' for its economy, experts say