🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Astatine]

Feels slightly easy to claim that the German electrical grid's high carbon output is entirely down to the nuclear question when you also have CDU types like Günthar Schartz on RWE's payroll, and all sorts of interesting going ons with regards to promoting Coal power in, but of course, Laschet's own NRW.

That and obviously the neglect of the rail infrastructure, and the German economy's dependence on dirty industries like the Car producers or the contained port in Hamburg which certain parties have been rather happy to indulge.

Blaming Germany's lack of progress on climate protection on one or two parties that have never even been in a position to set it feels pretty dishonest if you ask me.

The green party was the biggest pusher in the anti-nuclear movement that was responsible for the elimination of nuclear power. The removal of nuclear power was the biggest disruption to the German power grid in recent history responsible for causing increased use of coal.

It's like saying that you can't blame ukip and Nigel f
Garage for Brexit becuase they were never the Goverment. It completely ignored political realities

Totally agreed, the Greens' constant scare-mongering played a big role in why a majority of Germans oppose nuclear power. And energy production accounts for 30 % (221 million tons CO₂ eq) of the 739 million tons of CO₂ eq emitted, making it the sector with most emissions.

The Finnish Greens for instance have revoked their original stance on nuclear power, while they're still not actively endorsing it, they prioritize net zero emissions over a nuclear phase-out that would just lead to more reliance on fossil fuels.

[Astatine]

I agree with your posts but its mildly ironic to gave a Green-DE avatar be so critical of the German Green Party on energy policy.

I apologize for the confusion, my avatar is supposed to be a German version of a certain G-LA avatar, including the display name. But it's gonna be changed after the election eventually anyway.

[Astatine]

Brand new poll:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1436770642603487238

It would be absolutely hilarious if the Greens manage to fall behind the FDP, although INSA's numbers tend to be lower for Greens and higher for the Liberals.

But such a scenario would also significantly improve the chances of a traffic light coalition, since the FDP could claim the Finance Ministry and would not just serve as an appendix to a red-green government.

[Astatine]

Laschet couldn't even answer the first question sufficiently, ough.

[Astatine]

Winner of this debate: RTL/n-tv

[Astatine]

On ARD, there is a debate of the lead candidates of the smaller Bundestag parties (Weidel/AfD, Lindner/FDP, Wissler/Linke, Dobrindt/CSU) right now.

[Astatine]

INSA is doing a ton of polls, there's another one from today showing little move. We need more to see the effects of recent events and the debate. If the numbers roughly remain unchanged over the course of this week, Laschet is in severe trouble. I mean, he already is, but time is running out now.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437421172535267340

Note that the survey period could be characterized as the worst time for Scholz so far. That the SPD's numbers remained unchanged is a great relief for the SPD, even if we are talking about just one poll. Time is running out for Laschet. It's only 13 days until the election, and people are already voting.

Is there any chance of FW entering or another party by passing threesold or winning a direct seat?

The South Schleswig Voters' Federation (SSW), minority party of Danes and Frisians, is exempted from the threshold and will likely just need about 50.000 votes to enter Parliament. Not guaranteed, but quite possible.

Beyond that? Meh. The only question will be which parties can cross the 0.5 % mark to receive federal campaign fundings.

[Astatine]

If I understand correctly in theory more than one party can represent a national minority.

In case of the SSW the electoral commission argued that it was representing the Danish and Frisian minority, relevant criteria were:
- The origin of the party (i.e. it was founded by Danes and Frisians)
- The personell of the party (i.e. its current functionaries are usually Danes and Frisians)
- The program of the party (i.e. the representation of Danish and Frisian minority interests is at the core of its political program).

If there were a second party fulfilling these points in the same way then I can't see why it wouldn't be granted the same privileges.

Actually, there is a party (or political organization, since it hasn't run for state or federal elections in some time) that claims to only represent the Frisian minority - the party "Die Friesen". Lower Saxony doesn't provide any special rules for minority parties on statewide level, against which "Die Friesen" filed a lawsuit, but iirc, that was rejected, and the party doesn't seem to be really active anymore.

The SSW has been debating for quite a long on whether to run for federal elections and the decision to run this year was neither uncontroversial nor unanimous. Some politicians of the party argue that running in the federal elections might endanger the party's recognition as minority representation party. I could actually see that, from what I've seen about the SSW in the federal campaign it seems like the party is running on a "bring home the pork to Schleswig-Holstein" platform, which is not really what a minority representation party is supposed to do.

The SSW might be in larger trouble if it wins a majority of its votes in Holstein (Southern S-H) instead of Schleswig (Northern S-H), since Holstein is not the native region of Danes and Frisians.

The Sorbs have organized within a party called the "Lausitzer Allianz", which intended to run in the 2019 elections in Saxony and Brandenburg. Saxony doesn't have extra rules for minority parties, while Brandenburg would exempt the LA from the threshold - But the party was not allowed to run for formal reasons (lack of signatures etc.).

[Astatine]

I do find it curious how there's no minority party for the Roma or Sorbs organized despite it theroticaly being possible.

The Sorbian party exists and even has local councillors, and there is a chance the party might run in the 2024 Brandenburg state elections. But there is no Sinti & Roma party indeed.

A reason for that might be that although such parties are exempted from the threshold, still a significant number of votes is needed (~50,000) to enter the Bundestag. And while Frisians, Danes and Sorbs are mostly living in certain areas where it is easier to organize (the SSW, the Frisian party/political organization and the Lausitzer Allianz have some local representation), that's not the case for Sinti & Roma.

In fact, unlike in other countries, especially in Eastern Europe, minority representation is largely not perceived as a major issue here. In the 1871-1918 Empire and the Weimar Republic, Germany's then territory included areas with significant minorities such as Poles, Alsacians and Lothringians that also had parliamentary representation (in the 1907 elections for instance, 28/397 seats went to parties/politicians representing minorities).

[Astatine]

If I were Christian Lindner, I would be somewhat worried about the most recent poll numbers. The Allensbach poll (9.5 %) might have been an outlier, but the significant drops in the YouGov and Forsa polls (10 %/-3, 11 %/‐2) might be a sign that CDU/CSU voters are coming home to prevent the SPD from becoming largest party.

[Astatine]

How libertarian is the FDP nowadays anyway? I would presume they moved a bit closer to the center considering all the traffic light talk?

Libertarianism isn't really anything but a niche ideology over here. The FDP is economically pro-business/free market (with some restrictions) and socially liberal, and hasn't really changed much over the last years platform-wise, although the social/civil liberal aspect gets more highlighted in campaigning and representation. During the years of the CDU-CSU-FDP coalition, they were largely perceived as solely economically liberal.
Within the youth organization, the Young Liberals, you might see some libertarians, but they're going essentially nowhere. "Real" libertarians are a rare species.

In 2013, there was an internet hype around a party that is closest to the libertarian ideology, the "Partei der Vernunft" (Party of Reason/PdV), which wanted a minimal state, massive tax cuts and repeal of many regulations, as well as leaving the Eurozone and turning the EU into a free trade area.
In spite of its "hype" and some local FDP officials joining the PdV, the party only got 0.1 % in the general elections and fizzled out eventually - In 2017 the PdV just received 500 something votes in the general elections. It still shows some activity (there was actually a party congress last weekend), but I doubt the party has much of a future.

[Astatine]

The possible coaltions would be:
Kenya 69.2%
Deutschland (Germany) 64.8%
Ampel (traffic lights) 57.1%
Jamaika 52.7%
Grossekoalition (great) 52.7%
Rot-rot-grün (red-red-green) 51.6%

Wouldn't be the greatest outcome tho

[Astatine]

My current district map with Lean/Likely/Safe ratings, resulting in 127 seats for CDU/CSU, 140 for SPD, 17 for AfD, 10 for the Greens and 5 for Linke.
Was really not sure about some as I don't know anything about them, but just guessed a bit?

[Astatine]

If the result is the same as the polls and -

1. FDP refuses to join the SPD
2. CDU refuses to join the SPD

Would the Greens rather join Jamaica or RRG?

Greens and FDP are in the wonderful position of angering parts of their base no matter for which coalition they'd opt.

Under the current circumstances, R2G seems somewhat more likely to me, for the following reasons:

- There are simply more programmatic similarities with SPD and Greens than with CDU, CSU and FDP. Moreover, it would be easier to negotiate a coalition deal, since CDU and CSU are still separate parties, although this might just be a minor factor.
- It would be very hard to justify electing one of the least popular politicians in Germany to the post of the Chancellor when his party suffers the worst defeat in the party's history.
- Depending on the result, Jamaica would have a narrow majority, and considering the circumstances, there is a higher chance of defections among the MPs of all participating parties in the secret vote for Chancellor.
- There have been some calls of major CDU/CSU politicians to go into opposition in case they become second largest party. Alexander Dobrindt (former CSU General Secretary, current chairman of the CSU within the CDU/CSU parliamentary group) for instance just stated today that the largest party should have first access to lead the country.
- Linke is a much weaker partner than FDP would be, which would allow the Greens to demand more concessions (on foreign policy for instance) where needed.

On the other hand, it should be noted that the number of people strongly opposing R2G is very high according to some polls, while Jamaica is not as hated as the left option.

[Astatine]

How would Green voters and members react if the Green Party ignored the SPD clearly winning the National popular vote and clearly having by far the most popular leader, and instead made a shady deal with the CDU and FDP. That led to a rightwing government led by Laschet?

Well, there is no rule that the Chancellor's party has to be the strongest force in Bundestag, as Helmut Kohl had to experience in 1976 when SPD/FDP formed a coalition against CDU/CSU although the latter were close to an absolute majority, and unless SPD is ahead by high single digits, I wouldn't exactly speak of a "clear popular vote win". But it would still be bad optics nevertheless.

Especially the Green Youth would be against such a coalition, and it is still up for debate whether a potential Jamaica deal would even pass a membership vote. At least in 2017, both FDP and Greens planned to let their members vote on the final agreement if the Jamaica negotiations had succeeded.
Assuming that the deal passes a membership vote, that would mean that lots of concessions were made by the other parties, especially CDU/CSU. Such a deal would likely include lots of plans on climate action.

But the Greens would still anger lots of their base, and if they receive - let's say - 15 % in the general elections, I could see their polling numbers quickly dropping to ~10 %. On the other hand, a potential R2G coalition could result in some of the more "moderate" supporters that swung from Merkel's CDU to the Greens pulling away from the Greens. A traffic light coalition would be the best option for the Greens to stabilize their support, I think.

It's the opposite for the FDP. The base would probably swallow a Jamaica deal (although the base is far more reluctant to ally with the Greens), but would be more hesitant about a traffic light coalition, especially since a large proportion of FDP voters are dissatisfied CDU voters.

As of now, I am relatively confident that either party will have some troubles or crises going out of the coalition negotiations. But as we have seen in the recent weeks, surprises are always possible.

[Astatine]

Would a confidence and supply agreement with die Linke be more palatable than R2G? Or is that option completely unrealistic given Germany's fear of minority governments?

Any form of minority government is virtually excluded. Germans, German politicians even more, prefer coalition agreements with no "surprising" results in parliamentary votes.

[Astatine]

It feels like in every debate or town hall, viewers, pundits and even candidates all agree that there is not enough discussion about a long term strategy on foreign policy, and yet the debate/town hall hosts don't give a damn sh#t lol

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1439944818185195527

The last-minute Laschet surge seems to be a thing.

[Astatine]

How would Green voters and members react if the Green Party ignored the SPD clearly winning the National popular vote and clearly having by far the most popular leader, and instead made a shady deal with the CDU and FDP. That led to a rightwing government led by Laschet?

The popular vote means literally nothing in a proportional system where you have 5 parties being represented.

I think its a bit of an exaggeration to say the winner of the popular vote means "nothing". As has been stated, the if the CDU came in second to the SPD it would very much be seen as the "loser" of the election and as having been rejected by the electorate and the optics of the Greens deciding to prop them up in a coalition would be very, very bad. In contrast, at this stage of the game if the polls were all wrong and the CDU emerged as the largest party even if by a teeny margin - it would be seen as somewhat of an upset and would put some wind in the sails for some form of a CDU led government.

For those who say the popular vote means NOTHING, I draw your attention to the 2005 when the CDU beat the SPD by an infinitesimal 3 seats... that tiny margin was enough to ensure that Angela Merkel would become chancellor in a grand coalition. Had the SPD remained the largest party Schroeder would have led that grand coalition and its quite possible that Merkel would never have become chancellor at all!

Although it should be noted that in 2005, the popular vote only mattered because CDU/CSU and SPD formed a coalition and the largest partner gets the position of the Chancellor. Gerhard Schröder was very eager to have the FDP as third partner in a traffic light coalition, although the liberals had excluded that ahead of the election, and was perceived a winner when taking the expectations (massive SPD loss) into account.

Examples of popular governments in spite of the winner of the popular vote being in opposition after the election exist on federal (1969, 1976) and statewide level. In 2019 for instance, Bremen's SPD received the worst result in its history, the CDU became largest party for the first time there, while the Greens only made modest gains in spite of their nationwide breakthrough. The red-green government was voted out only to be replaced by a red-red-green coalition - Although afaik, no poll has been conducted yet on its approval.
In a more recent example, it's clear how a party can barely enter the state Parliament and yet take over the post of the Minister-President.

[Astatine]

Btw, here is an overview of some districts to look out for on election night:

61 - Potsdam
2017 margin: SPD +1.2
One of the few SPD pickups in 2017 and likely a hold for the party, as Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz is running there, as well as Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock, who was seen as probable winner at some point in time. Besides, Linke MP Norbert Müller (who didn't get placed on the list) and CDU MP Saskia Ludwig (controversial right-winger, hopeless list spot) are running there too - During the CDU surge after the Green drop in early July, it seemed as if either of them could have a shot at winning the district due to a prospected heavy SPD/Greens split. It's almost certain that Scholz will win. Other candidates: Former FDP General Secretary and current FDP Brandenburg chairwoman Linda Teuteberg, who will make it into Parliament over the list.

100 - Rheinisch-Bergischer Kreis
2017 margin: CDU +15.5
Incumbent CDU MP Hermann-Josef Tebroke, a backbencher, is running for a second term, but he has a high-profile competitor in FDP leader Christian Lindner, who won 15.7 % four years ago, while Tebroke got 40.0 %. Lindner almost matched with the party's proportional vote, unusual for FDP candidates who usually underperform their party by a lot. Considering that the CDU is in free fall and Lindner has strong personal appeal, this district is the only one where the FDP has a shot to win (albeit chances are slim). A CDU/FDP split could benefit the Social Democrats' candidate Kastriot Krasniqi.

128 - Steinfurt III
2017 margin: CDU +14.4
Incumbent Minister of Education Anja Karliczek is running for re-election here, and her poor performance as Minister could result in a SPD pickup. The Social Democratic candidate is Jürgen Coße, who had been in the Bundestag before for one year. Koße, who challenged the incumbent 4 years ago already, and Karliczek both outperformed their party's proportional result in 2017, but we will see if her crossover appeal still remains after her tumultuous term as Minister for Education. If she loses, she might not make it over the list.

147 - Hochsauerlandkreis
2017 margin: CDU +21.1
This is the district of Friedrich Merz, who had hoped to become CDU leader in 2018 and 2021 and defeated incumbent CDU MP Patrick Sensberg in the pre-selection process. He didn't run for the list, so he needs to win this district directly to be represented in the next Bundestag. Although district 147 is a CDU stronghold, the party's federal downfall could open some chances for the local SPD candidate.

196 - Suhl/South Thuringia
2017 margin: CDU +10.8
The former CDU MP for this district resigned from his seat in March due to his involvement in the mask scandal, so the local party had to find a replacement. They nominated former Head of the Agency of Protection of the Constitution, Hans-Georg Maaßen, a staunch right-winger who has flirted with cooperation with the AfD, which won more than 22 % in 2017 in this district. That might help him, but on the other hand, the SPD nominated a strong candidate: Frank Ullrich, a former athlete who has his roots in this region and was famous in the DDR, while Maaßen is literally a carpetbagger. The Green candidate has indicated Green voters should vote for Ullrich, whose candidacy is likely to succeed thanks to both the nationwide SPD surge and his personal appeal.

201 - Kreuznach
2017 margin: CDU +5.5
This district was quite safe SPD territory for more than 50 years, until a young CDU hopeful called Julia Klöckner unseated an incumbent, winning by whooping 18.3 points in 2009. After she switched to statewide politics in RLP, the district became remarkably more competitive. Incumbent Antje Lezius is retiring, so Klöckner could run again. The former rising star has lost two state elections since, and is incredibly unpopular as Minister of Agriculture. It remains to be seen what's left of the popularity that once contributed to her winning this district by double digits. Klöckner could still make it over the list, if her state party doesn't win too many districts.

258 - Stuttgart I
2017 margin: CDU +2.3
CDU incumbent Stefan Kaufmann is all but certain to lose. Four years ago, he barely won against Cem Özdemir, then Green Party leader, who is challenging him again. Kaufmann is, afaik, the first CDU MP to come out as gay, but beyond that, he has a much lower profile than Özdemir who enjoys a lot of crossover support. Other candidates running include former Linke leader Bernd Riexinger, Dirk Spaniel, a controversial AfD MP, and FDP Environmental Policy spokeswoman Judith Skuldeny.  

296 - Saarbrücken
2017 margin: SPD +0.7
This district is classically red territory and has been represented by SPD MP Josephine Ortleb since 2017. The CDU won the district only twice in recent times due to a strong Linke, but the party has been on decline since, although they nominated a formidable union candidate. Ortleb has to face Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, incumbent Minister of Defense and former Minister-President, who might very well still win, although it is an uphill battle. Neither AKK nor Ortleb, #1 and #2 on their respective state party lists, are "safe" in the next Bundestag, as all depends on which party wins the other Saarland districts.

297 - Saarlouis
2017 margin: CDU +5.9
The battle of the outgoing ministers - Peter Altmaier (CDU) and Heiko Maas (SPD), Ministers of Economy and Foreign Affairs respectively, are running in the only district with a competition of government members. Unlikely either of them will be part of the next government, but still a competitive district. Maas himself hasn't been campaigning as much in recent days from what I've heard, which could benefit incumbent Altmaier. Additionally, an incumbent Linke state legislator is running, being a possible "spoiler" for Maas. What counts for AKK and Ortleb counts for Altmaier and Maas, who are #2 and #1 on the state party lists respectively, too.
Those are districts I know at least a bit about, I am really clueless about most in Bavaria for instance, so if some other German posters have any other "interesting" districts to add... I'd be excited for that

[Astatine]

Do we have any data on how many people already have voted (via postal voting)?

Leipzig (Saxony) is quite transparent about their postal voting statistics. The city has en eligible population of about 460,000 and by now, 138,000 (30 %) postal ballots were issued, 95,000 (21 %) have been returned. In 2017, the city had a total turnout of 75 % (of which 25 % voted by mail). In Düsseldorf (NRW), 41 % of the eligible population has applied for mail-in ballots.

I think in the end we'll see a slight drop in turnout to ~70-75 % (2017: 76.2 %), although I doubt the record low of 70.8 % (2009) will be broken. Postal voting will probably account for more than 40 % of all ballots.

[Astatine]

I don't really wish the AfD to overperform anywhere, but if they do, may it be Baden-Württenberg. The statewide AfD list has 12 nominees only, which means that any seat the party would get above that number would remain empty. Glad they're actively working to reduce the size of the Bundestag.

[Astatine]

I don't really wish the AfD to overperform anywhere, but if they do, may it be Baden-Württenberg. The statewide AfD list has 12 nominees only, which means that any seat the party would get above that number would remain empty. Glad they're actively working to reduce the size of the Bundestag.

On this note, will the failure of the Greens to submit a valid list in the Saarland have any effect at all?

The Greens would have needed ~14 % for a second seat here, and barring a complete collapse, they would have probably retained their sole member from Saarland in the Bundestag. Last time, they received about 35,000 votes over here, out of 3.7 million.

The PR disaster is horrible though, and Saarland will be the first state heading to the polls after the federal elections. The state party got 4 % in the last state elections and would have probably made big gains next year, but now the Greens would be happy to even enter the state legislature. Besides, no other party in Saarland considers them a potential coalition partner anymore - at least for now.

[Astatine]

It's Allensbach with a strong CDU/CSU house effect, but this poll isn't really good news for Linke:

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1441408743401410562?s=19

[Astatine]

Shameless lack-of-an-answer-induced repost:

Having not paid as much attention to this election as I would've liked to, would it be right to state that the only mathematically possible coalitions that'd also be politically possible (i.e., not including AfD) can be traffic-light (SPD/Green/FDP), Jamaica (Union/Green/FDP), GroKo but with the SPD heading it, & R2G (SPD/Green/Linke), with traffic-light at about a 2/3rds chance, R2G at about a 1/3rd chance, & reverse-GroKo & Jamaica being extremely unlikely?

Likewise, would it be right to state that any coalition negotiations - but especially if they potentially result in failure & another GroKo a-la 2017 - will likely drag into 2022 & thus entail that Merkel remains caretaker Chancellor in the meantime?

Regarding the latter question: Yes, Merkel will be caretaker Chancellor until a successor is elected. Depending on the result and the duration of coalition negotiations, her Chancellorship could very well last until 2022, which would allow her to hold one last New Year's speech. If she remains Chancellor beyond 16th of December, she would break Helmut Kohl's record of 16 years and 26 days as head of government of the Federal Republic.

I wouldn't rate Jamaica as completely impossible, although it is not the likeliest option at the moment of course. The INTM forecast (https://www.wer-gewinnt-die-wahl.de/en), which is kind of comparable to FiveThirtyEight, projects Jamaica to be the most likely coalition option actually, based on surveying scholars. Yet, that evaluation should be taken with a grain of salt.

If CDU/CSU becomes largest force, the likelihood of Jamaica would be increased by a lot. FDP leader Christian Lindner stated in yesterdays' debate that he prefers Jamaica over a traffic light coalition, although he doesn't exclude the latter. Scholz meanwhile was clearly flirting with the red-green-yellow option, knowing that this variant is way less polarizing and more popular than R2G.