Israel-Gaza war

[CumbrianLefty]

So far this is not a good look for Israel. Nothing they have shown so far justifies the attack on the hospital. Was there a massive intelligence failure here? Or is it plausible that they just haven't found/shown the tunnels for some reason?

Again, their PR at times like this is so poor.

And contrary to what some of their apologists both here and elsewhere claim, that actually matters.

[CumbrianLefty]

You think the fact that people like Dule or MT Treasurer are even critical of Israel’s conduct would be a hint to people like OSR or Meclazine that Israel is going too far in it’s conduct

Nothing that Israel does would ever be too much for them - they are the other side of the coin from those who celebrated the October 7th atrocities as "glorious resistance".

[CumbrianLefty]

That has been "about to happen" since this all kicked off, however.

[CumbrianLefty]

Meclazine's posts here, including hits such as likening the incoming IDF operation to the Crusades and framing such as good thing for the residents of Israel and Palestine, and random tabloid says all Palestinans are crisis actors, are to me the easiest way to lose the youth wing of the UMC pro globalism, pro free-trade, pro nat-sec crowd. Within the local sphere of Atlas, he may be the poster that has the strongest negative effect for those who prefer pro-Zionist outcomes or even two-state solutions.

This phrase really is one of the most reliable "nothing I say should be taken seriously" flags going.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hezbollah has gone woke
https://twitter.com/Intel_Sky/status/1726730470702895605?t=CiKFwN1xiSxwhGNCOrAHs...

How is that "woke"?

It's a joke. The word "woke" has lost any actual meaning a long time ago.

It actually had meaning?

[CumbrianLefty]

Israel's Minister of Communications suggesting to cut off the foreskins of Hamas fighters is incredible content, really. They should also burn all images of Allah in Gaza while they're at it. That will be a proper revenge.

There are no images of Allah. An image of God is one of the most haram/salacious in Islam.

false

There is a long history of imagery of Mo in Islamic art, it wasn't until fanatics in the twentieth century wanted another wedge to stick between Islam and the West that it became a thing.  They got what they wanted.

I know things weren't always as they are now, but was the change really as recent as the 20th C?

[CumbrianLefty]

The problem with all the terrorist justification using things like "if a plane with a star of david dropped bombs on you for years, you'd be anti-Semitic too" is that one could use that same logic for 9/11- i.e. "if you survived 9/11, you'd be Islamophobic, too"

Well, to a significant degree that happened. And most will agree its not terribly good that it did.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hamas's attack and the subsequent IDF response flipped the table.

I've read your entire post and yet I fail to see how this statement could be true. How can anyone look at Gaza and think that it is in a better position than on Oct 6? The strip is now divided in 2 for crying out loud, half of it is just ruins. If I were to put my shoes in a gazan's, all I would realise is that there is exactly 0% chance that Israel ever accepts them as their neighbours. And that surrounding arab countries (most notably, saudi Arabia) don't give a sh*t as they clearly value their relations with the US and even Israel, more.

Also, the fact that Hamas has accepted a 1:3 ratio for the release of hostages seems like an admission of failure to me. We are a far cry from the 1000:1 from a decade ago, or their demand of every palestinian prisoner from October 7. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Israel has arrested more palestinians since Oct 7 than have been released since the prisoner/hostage swap was reached.

Yes, at a fundamental level Hamas have totally failed. They are fortunate that Israel's now familiar ineptitude and brutality have obscured this reality as much as it has, but that cannot last forever.

[CumbrianLefty]

Israel really aren't sending their best to represent their country abroad are they.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think this is an obvious attempt to pawn Biden's failures on this issue onto Bibi

Possibly, but I don't think it's at all obvious. Why do you?

Anyway, what "Biden failures" exactly? How is he to blame for October 7th in any way at all??

[CumbrianLefty]

Again, talking of "crisis actors" is a gigantic red flag that you are not to be taken seriously.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is just too simplistic to say "young zoomers will grow out of not supporting Israel". The reality is that many people started having a more critical attitude to Israel and Zionism back in the 1980s, and that fundamental shift has not changed despite the expected oscillations in public opinion.

"Israel right or wrong" *is* very much the preserve of boomers and religious fundamentalists now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why should maintaining a Jewish majority even be a factor? Nobody cared about maintaining a white majority in Rhodesia or South Africa. Israel should be held to the exact same standard.

Israel is not a colony. Israel is a nation run by its indigenous people. You will never disperse or overrun them again.

Ashkenazi Jews are so far removed from the Levant (if connected at all), that calling us indigenous is equivalent to saying that modern day Celtic people are entitled to Austria. Sephardic Jews somewhat closer but still pretty tenuous.

Israel is the indigenous home of some Mizrahi Jews and a whole lot of Muslim and Christian Palestinians.

Ashkenazi Jews still came from Israel if you go back far enough.  DNA tests show they are similar to Palestinians, Sephardic, and Mizrahi Jews.

Indeed, but the fact that the "indigenous people" of Israel does not simply equal "Jews" remains.

[CumbrianLefty]

And you didn't even mention the UK or Ireland

[CumbrianLefty]

I doubt if the US or other allies will be happy with a blank cheque for two more months.

Indeed, there is surely going to be pressure for a pause over the Christmas period?

[CumbrianLefty]

All that quote from Vosem shows is that neocons remain dangerous hubristic maniacs.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, we all recall the reactions of a certain sort of faux-leftist in the immediate aftermath of October 7 - "this is what REAL resistance looks like, all you liberal hand wringers!" - for all that some have tried to deny it subsequently (to the extent of at least attempting to hide the evidence in some cases)

[CumbrianLefty]

The US has signed off on one Qatar invasion plan in the recent past (2018)

Donald Trump signed off on this, egged on by his son-in-law, who in turn had been egged on by the Saudis and the UAE.

So in other words, "signing off" on it was effectively worthless - as I suspected.

[CumbrianLefty]

Without changes of leadership on both sides, I think this conflict ultimately ends, sadly, with a mass expulsion of Palestinians from both Gaza and the West Bank.

Tbh this learned helplessness is a bit tiresome. The outside world *does* have the power to prevent Israel carrying out such a monstrous and utterly evil act, and should exercise it if necessary.

And yes, that may involve helping to force Netanyahu from power.

[CumbrianLefty]

Fanatically pro-Israel posters here who equate that country with "Jews" really tell on themselves - and whether wittingly or otherwise, recycle a standard AS trope.

[CumbrianLefty]

Do the words "*helping* to force from power" (there are many in Israel who want this, after all) have to mean any sort of CIA involvement at all?

[CumbrianLefty]

Whatever the facts of this incident, it is a total PR disaster for Netanyahu. If outside powers have any nous at all, they will be doing their best to use it as leverage right now.

[CumbrianLefty]

And the recently much quoted "loads of young people think the Holocaust is a myth!!" claim comes from a *tiny* YouGov subsample, following what many would regard as a rather leading question.

[CumbrianLefty]

And the recently much quoted "loads of young people think the Holocaust is a myth!!" claim comes from a *tiny* YouGov subsample, following what many would regard as a rather leading question.

We need more polling then.

I am never going to oppose more *good quality* polling.

[CumbrianLefty]

Without changes of leadership on both sides, I think this conflict ultimately ends, sadly, with a mass expulsion of Palestinians from both Gaza and the West Bank.

Tbh this learned helplessness is a bit tiresome. The outside world *does* have the power to prevent Israel carrying out such a monstrous and utterly evil act, and should exercise it if necessary.

And yes, that may involve helping to force Netanyahu from power.

So we're for global military deployment in the Middle East and we're for regime change.

I remember a certain conflict, say 15 to 20 years ago. I'm sure everyone is arguing the exact same then as they are now and no one is being a hypocrite.

Except regime change in Iraq required a ground invasion and occupation, whereas "regime change" in Israel would simply require that the US not send them billions of dollars and provide them unlimited logistical support.

So us overthrowing foreign governments is fine in your eyes, as long as not one soldier's foot hits the ground? Just clarifying for future and past reference.

You are making this sound something like Guatemala in 1954, with a popular leader being couped even in face of opposition by most of the people. Whereas right now, as any poll can tell you, most Israelis want Bibi gone (and probably in jail too) Even leaving aside the ever more urgent moral questions, it is obvious that he wants this war to drag on for as long as possible to avoid accountability.

Why should the US, or indeed any other country, indulge him?