UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

Boris Johnson returns as leader within a year as the voice of rationality and moderation. Calling it now.

He was still well beaten at the polls, so would settle for that again.

[CumbrianLefty]

The membership could get in the way and elect Badenoch though.

Maybe that is the ultimate fate that the current Tory party deserves.

[CumbrianLefty]

When the media are using terms like “lowest value since the days of Pitt the Younger”, you might have made a slight miscalculation.

And in the middle of Labour Conference too - giving the opposition a chance to respond in real-time, in news-ready clips in front of a supportive audience.

Flashbacks to 1992 when Black Wednesday happened during the LibDems gathering.

[CumbrianLefty]

Wow. IMF bailouts are usually for third world countries.

UK won't require one.  Worst case scenario is ends up like Canada in mid 90s where government required a heavy austerity program to turn things around.  Off course not sure Labour willing to do that but may have no choice and probably leads to being one term wonder if forced to.

There was very likely less capacity to tax the better off in 1990s Canada than in the UK post-Truss.

(and the Liberals did of course get re-elected, for a few more elections at that)

[CumbrianLefty]

Polling over the past few days has been quite something. Since the weekend, we've had polls from Redfield & Wilton, Deltapoll and YouGov, who poll weekly or biweekly. All have Labour at 44-45% and the Tories on 28-31%. Redfield's 13% lead is the largest they've recorded for Labour, as is YouGov's 17% lead.

This parliament has been an odd one for polling. A post-election honeymoon for the Tories built into a historic lead, thanks to a COVID bump. That lead dissolved after their first round of PPE contract scandals, and the first whispers of partygate around Christmas 2020. They recovered as the vaccine programme got underway (and benefitted as Labour had a terrible summer with the Hartlepool by-election), but the Matt Hancock debacle heralded a polling decline only sped-up by the resurgence of partygate.

The Tories haven't recovered the lead since last Christmas, and any hopes for a new-PM bounce seem to have evaporated. Short of an out-of-nowhere conference bump, it looks like we're settling into an extended period with Labour in the lead.

It's big turn-around compared to polling in the last few cycles. Corbyn never took a consistent lead over the Tories (basically trailing throughout his leadership), and while Milliband led in the aggregate for much of the coalition years, his leads were often only a few points over the Tories, and melted away during the election.

I guess it could be a mirage - Kinnock soared ahead as Thatcher's premiership collapsed, falling back to parity with the Conservatives as Major established himself. But Major was elected to steady the ship - Truss was elected to "run fast and break things". And like all PMs, Truss is likely to become less popular over time, not more.

That's not quite true, Labour were ahead from the 2017 GE to early 2018 (though never massively)

[CumbrianLefty]

Tories also when Corbyn was leader never went below 38%.  By contrast most polls put them in low 30s and a few even below 30%.  Would be shocked if they get under 30% but getting less than 1 in 3 voters is pretty bad for Tories

Um, erm, that's not actually true is it.

In fact, they recorded their lowest ever poll score when he was still around.

[CumbrianLefty]

Truss and the people around her are maybe out of touch enough to believe her getting interviewed by these "mere regional journos" would be an easy ride. Despite the fact that these "provincials" handed Johnson most of his uncomfortable moments during the 2019 GE campaign.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean.......WTAF??

[CumbrianLefty]

Sorry, am I reading that correctly? A 33-POINT lead for Labour???

Still 10 points shy of their all time record (Gallup in early 1995)

[CumbrianLefty]

Sorry, am I reading that correctly? A 33-POINT lead for Labour???

Still 10 points shy of their all time record (Gallup in early 1995)

I’m just astonished at how fast the collapse has happened for the Tories. There’s not even an event like Black Wednesday to pin it on — just Truss’s utter incompetence as PM.

Yesterday did have some definite vibes of that Wednesday 30 years earlier tbf.

And if polling like this causes their remaining media support to jump ship, the previous Tory all time low - 17% in mid-2019 - might well be within reach. The insane "libertarian" type rightism espoused by the Britannia Unchained gang maybe doesn't have the support of even 10% of voters.

[CumbrianLefty]

Truss keeps telling us she wants to be Thatcher, but maybe she’s been a Kim Campbell tribute act all along.

Tell you what, I haven't seen this comparison made as much but Starmer is actually a damn good fit for Chretien in several respects. I can even see the Tories trying the same sort of desperate personal attack on him in a GE campaign, and it backfiring similarly horribly.

[CumbrianLefty]

Alex Niven maybe didn't choose the optimum moment to go full on accelerationist, all told.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its less than 18 months since Johnson went to Hartlepool during the by-election campaign there and was treated almost as a rock star - "lifelong Labour voters" posing for selfies with him and all, whilst the hapless (and utterly ineptly parachuted) Labour candidate was openly laughed at in the street.

I know things can change fast in politics, but the transformation since mid-2021 takes some beating.

[CumbrianLefty]

When this is over, we need a reckoning with those who enabled it too.

[CumbrianLefty]

And partly in response to that utterly unhinged Clarke interview, the "no mandate" aspect of this is now being picked up even by some of our usually bovinely compliant lobby journalists.

So in the light of the way things *could* go this coming winter, a few polling figures to remember - the biggest ever Labour lead is 43 points, their highest ever score 63%, the lowest ever Tory rating 17%.

[CumbrianLefty]

Truss is being interviewed by Laura Kuenssberg. Notably:

• Truss has doubled down on the 45% tax rate abolition, the part of the mini-budget most likely to face rebellion in the Commons.
• Admits she had issues rolling out the tax cuts, but refuses to take any responsibility for the impact of the tax cut announcement on mortgages and the pound.
• Refuses to publish the OBR draft.
• Says that the 45% rate was only drafted by Kwarteng - they didn’t discuss the policy with the full cabinet. Her phrasing “it was the chancellor’s decision” is the first time I’ve seen Truss look like she’s throwing Kwarteng under the bus.
• When presented with a question about a constituent with soaring mortgage payments, Truss blames the BofE raising interest rates, and refused again to admit any culpability.
• Kuenssberg basically accused Truss of acting without a mandate, and Truss shrugged and said that 2019 voters wanted economic growth, so she could basically do what she wanted.

Kuenssberg then pivoted to a panel discussion about Truss’s comments. Michael Gove went first, and said he couldn’t support the current financial package in the Commons. Just a bit of a car crash.

Yes, pretty much all "2019 voters" wanted economic growth. Not just those who voted Conservative.

Only a small minority of crankish "deep greens" are actually anti-growth.

And the media still needs to stop uncritically portraying whatever barmy proposals Truss comes out with as a "dash for growth" and examine if, on the most generous assumptions, they will actually help towards their stated aim. Many are either irrelevant or actually harmful.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but the current crash in Tory support is literally unprecedented in polling history - as is the fact it is transferring almost wholesale to Labour.

We have seen epochal electoral shifts in recent years - the 2015 GE saw both the collapse of Scottish Labour and emergent SNP hegemony, plus the near extinction of the LibDems (who lost over two in three of their 2010 voters, a stat that is maybe more overlooked than it should be) Be in no doubt - if Truss sticks rigidly to her present course and stays until a GE, a sub-1997 Tory result is very possible.

[CumbrianLefty]

The finger-pointing has commenced.

Penny Mordaunt at a late night conference event: “Our policy is great but our comms is sh*t”.

Pippa Crerar: Tory insiders claim that it was, in fact,  Treasury chief sec Chris Philp who had the idea to cut the 45p tax rate, presenting Truss and Kwarteng with a paper on it during leadership campaign.

It has been claimed by some who were there that Penny Dreadful didn't actually mean that literally. In other words, a not too subtle dig at the policies as well.....

[CumbrianLefty]

Who is favored in that case? Badenoch?

I have to think that even this Tory party will know better than to replace Thatcher 2: The Re-Thatching with Thatcher 3: Once More, with Melanin?

Actually I was thinking because of that. They could misread the entire electorate so much they think they can fix it by putting a POC in charge, since obviously no person could have an issue with their policies.

I, again, have to believe that the MPs, at least, aren't THAT stupid and extreme (it's pretty clear that the membership is), but while we're on this topic, I learned the other day that Kwarteng not only is the first black Chancellor but was the first black full Cabinet member (as in, not "also attending...") EVER when he was appointed BEIS Secretary in January of last year. There have been all-white slates of full Cabinet members as recently as 2014. That is pathetic, even for a country much whiter than the US or Canada.

That may be true of the Tories, but I'm certain Labour had a few.

[CumbrianLefty]

💀

Well given "Chopper's" usual level of accuracy, might even be a much needed boost for Truss

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm starting to think Truss will probably be axed soon, at least before the end of 2023. If they have a full leadership election I think Badenoch is the heavy favorite, but an MP vote probably goes to Mordaunt (?) or (God forbid) BoJo 2.0

MPs only might well go for Sunak, if only on a "told you so" basis.

[CumbrianLefty]

This is a petty point. But Truss is making a big deal about how she was the first PM to go to a comprehensive school, and made it into big applause line.

As someone who grew up very near Gordon Brown, I can assure you that his alma mater, Kirkcaldy High School, is a mid-level performing state school, and definitely a comprehensive, not a grammar school, as there are none up here.

May as well apparently (slightly surprised me, but appears to be the case)

Truss also seems to think that Andy Street is the elected mayor of "Birmingham" - I'm sure the good folk of Wolverhampton, Walsall, West Bromwich and Dudley will be delighted

[CumbrianLefty]

Did she decry anything as a "disgrace" this time?

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, the Tories might lose all of their Scotland seats at this rate.

Minus 70 is almost impressive, I think that is below the very worst that Clegg got.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm sensing that perhaps the reason why Dorries has turned on Truss so quickly is because they've backed out of shipping her to the Lords, now that there is a possibility of the Tories losing a by-election in (checks notes) Mid Bedfordshire?

The *resignation* honours list hasn't materialised yet.