🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[CumbrianLefty]

A move back to the PS since the new election was announced, interesting.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ventura is getting such a beating from almost everyone, because of the whole Azores debacle, that he's not even appearing or saying that much. xD

Long may that continue

[CumbrianLefty]

I presume, given the shortness of the timetable, that this is an online thing?

[CumbrianLefty]

So how does that work?

[CumbrianLefty]

Usual predictable populist right sloganising, then.

[CumbrianLefty]

Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

[CumbrianLefty]

New polling:

SNIP

I hope this isn't cherry-picking and we actually will soon have a race on our hands. Competition is good.

Yes, we'll have to wait for more polls to see if this trend is clear or not, because so far the race has been like a "yo-yo": the PS down, PSD up, then PS up, PSD down, and so on. By the end of the weekend, we will know for sure. The election is in 9 days.

Could these latest poll moves be the PSD getting a bit of a "debate bounce"?

[CumbrianLefty]

How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.

Reserve shy Tory

Is there any reason to think that there might have been a "reverse shy Tory" effect here, in the sense of people voting PS but not being prepared to admit to this to pollsters?

The polls do show that there was a PS wobble followed by a swing back to them; could part of the error simply be that the swing back continued after the last polls were taken?

Polling showed a lot of undecided voters until the very last day, and at the last minute, many could have decided to vote in the PS in order to punish the leftwing parties and because of the PSD's indecision regarding a CHEGA support in a PSD minority. Between stability and instability, the voters picked stability at any cost.

It seems obvious that the polls last week showing PSD edging ahead scared a significant number of votes back into the PS camp. Maybe some parallels with a certain election 30 years ago there.

[CumbrianLefty]

Have the overseas votes been fully counted yet, and if so have any seat changes resulted?

[CumbrianLefty]

More maps: Parish map with most voted party in the 3,092 parishes of the country.


Image link.

The PS won 2,190 parishes, the PSD 889, CDU won in 7 parishes, JPP won 2 in Madeira and CDS also won in 2 parishes. 2 parishes, in my count, resulted in a tie.

So no Chega parishes, then - where were they closest?

[CumbrianLefty]

How does the overseas vote compare overall to last time?