UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

[CumbrianLefty]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

Definite whiff of straw man attached to this post tbh.

My own view is the LibDems may have got some short term popularity at the cost of longer term problems - but we will likely find out how true (or otherwise) that is before too long

[CumbrianLefty]

Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

And who got 2017 correct (along with the EU Elections I think?)

This is a bit of a myth - their CONSTITUENCY MODELLING thing then was almost scarily accurate (and widely disbelieved) but their regular polling not quite as much. Especially since they chickened out with the eve of poll survey which had the Tories winning quite comfortably after some "judicious" (or not, as it transpired) herding.

And though they were quite good on the Euros (save with the BxP) Ipsos-MORI were the closest.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes to all the above (and I made a point about it’s above before) but I’m still terrified by the prospect that these polls and are right and the short campaign won’t change them and we’ll look back at this period as the same way we look back at late ‘14-15- as a time when we ignored that our leader was a huge block for labour winning an election

Well that is perfectly possible, as are many other things.

But equally, 2017 is a powerful argument against the actual campaign not changing anything - not least because it didn't "just happen", but did so for reasons that could well apply again.

Count me as somebody sceptical that dumping Ed M before the 2015 GE would have worked either.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes to all the above (and I made a point about it’s above before) but I’m still terrified by the prospect that these polls and are right and the short campaign won’t change them and we’ll look back at this period as the same way we look back at late ‘14-15- as a time when we ignored that our leader was a huge block for labour winning an election

I wish Corbyn could be unseated soon, there is the electability factor and also so many other reasons he should not be PM (but Labour is of course far better than the Tories and the other parties either aren't actually much better or have no chance of forming a government). The 2016 experience seems to have killed those hopes though, and even if the membership has changed their mind it would probably be too impractical to have a leadership contest at this stage distracting from stopping no-deal and probably too close to a potential election. Hopefully Corbyn does do well campaigning again, but he is even more unpopular than in 2017, and it's far from clear that the 2017 experience can be repeated in these significantly different conditions.

Its not guaranteed, sure.

But what were some of the factors that caused it last time?

1) a popular manifesto;

2) Corbyn actually being good at campaigning;

3) the GE (contrary to predictions then, too) not just being a referendum on Brexit after all;

4) the broadcast media (and even press, just a bit) having to give Labour more and fairer coverage;

5) linked to the above, anti-Corbyn MPs/officials being "out of town" and thus not so easy copy for hostile hacks;

6) the Tories fought a dreadful campaign (contrary to MSM myth after the fact, this was not the only thing that mattered tho!)

And Corbyn's ratings *were* almost as bad as now going into the campaign. Labour had just lost a seat it had held since 1935 to the Tories FFS!

Now, I appreciate things *are* different now in some respects - in particular, it will be harder to just push Brexit aside especially if the election is before we have left (though equally I wouldn't be totally shocked if Labour's approach actually goes down quite well during a campaign) and there is no guarantee the Tory campaign will be as dismal (though given BoJo's recent pratfalls in the public eye, who knows?) But equally, even the best polls for the Tories don't show them doing as well as in spring 2017 - and if those aren't the ones that are correct, what then?

So in short, yes the Tories *could* win a snap election. But some of the pessimism on my side is much overdone - its still all to play for

[CumbrianLefty]

Strong rumours that the Watson business is really about Corbyn being about to step down soon (he may even announce it in his big speech next week) and his "deputy" not then automatically stepping into his shoes even temporarily when he does. Not least because many genuinely fear that he would try to rig any leadership contest in his faction's favour.

And though not many in the media (who see very chummy with him now, what a contrast to the phone hacking days eh?) will report this, Watson p***ed off people well beyond the "usual suspects" with his recent gratuitously clumsy intervention on Brexit - his demand that a GE be delayed for several months in the (almost certainly chimerical, without one) pursuit of a referendum was greatly ill-judged, and supported by hardly anybody.

Add to that the undoubted fact (just ask any almost random CLP meeting) that most members who voted for him in 2015 would certainly not do so now (many thinking he won on a thoroughly cynical if not false prospectus) and things were always likely to come to a head at some point.

[CumbrianLefty]

The vote to "abolish Watson" has been pulled - there will be an examination of the DL position (*) as part of a more general review aimed at "strengthening party democracy".

(*worth remembering here that the post - as we know it, at least - was created as a sop to the almost overweening vanity of Herbert Morrison, and there has for as long as I can remember been a section of opinion in the party who would like to see it scrapped)

[CumbrianLefty]

The vote to "abolish Watson" has been pulled - there will be an examination of the DL position (*) as part of a more general review aimed at "strengthening party democracy".

(*worth remembering here that the post - as we know it, at least - was created as a sop to the almost overweening vanity of Herbert Morrison, and there has for as long as I can remember been a section of opinion in the party who would like to see it scrapped)

Well, at least it was pulled, but again this incident suggests that too many people in the Labour Party, including those in key positions, are way too interested in internal factional vendettas and the like.  And for someone who wants the vile group of people currently passing as a government out, this is incredibly frustrating.

I do realise that you need two sides for a factional war and that the right wing of the Labour Party is not exactly innocent in all this, and Watson isn't really my cup of tea, though I think he's right on Brexit.  But why Lansman thought it was sensible to try this on at this time and why some more people apparently supported him really beats me.

Though he "believed" almost the diametric opposite immediately after the referendum. Just shows that he is basically a snake who should not be trusted by anybody - I have barely wavered in my own belief he is fundamentally a bad 'un ever since his 2006 antics (and who was the party leader then?)

[CumbrianLefty]

Mike Hill (Hartlepool) has been suspended from Labour over an allegation of sexual harrassment.

Well that's him b***ered for any early GE given the speed (or rather, lack of) the party usually shows in dealing with these things <cough> Kelvin Hopkins <cough>

[CumbrianLefty]

That finding does not mean that 60% have it as a top "priority". Though given both recent happenings and possible future developments, British republicanism could be due a bit of an upturn anyway?

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour's policy is now to effectively abolish private schools.

Passed on a show of hands, so no not actual "policy". But the direction of travel is clear, and polls indicate it is more popular than the "chattering classes" (so bound up with private schools themselves) are ever likely to give credit for.

[CumbrianLefty]

It's like they're trying to lose.

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1175844135582015489

At the moment UK rules on eligibility to vote make little sense.

[CumbrianLefty]

It's like they're trying to lose.

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1175844135582015489

At the moment UK rules on eligibility to vote make little sense.

Indeed, I never quite understood why a Pakistani or Mozambique Citizen in the UK should be able to vote, while a Pole or a Frenchman should not. New Zealand allows this, and it works pretty well there.  
That said, It does rather seem to be changing the rules of the game for partisan advantage, though. Labour would clearly be the beneficiaries of this. And it disincentivizes people from Naturalising and becoming British Citizens.

Given the current situation with Brexit such a big thing, it might actually be the LibDems?

[CumbrianLefty]

Well what can you expect when certain of Corbyn's long term opponents in the party have so cynically used "remain no matter what and exile the 52% to the outer darkness" as a wedge issue?

They are too short sighted to see a full on CULTURE WAR on this will only benefit Cummings.

[CumbrianLefty]

So much for Remain strategic voting for Labour...

The large majority of Labour MPs and activists/members are pro-remain and would campaign in another referendum in favour of it whatever the "official" party line.

(even leaving aside that another vote was *the* central demand of anti-Brexit campaigners until, like, a few weeks ago)

Ah yes, no need to worry about all that because the LibDems will sweep to power

[CumbrianLefty]

Boris' luck is really something. The news cycle is all about Labour embarrassing themselves at Conference and then suddenly this comes along and puts all the embarrassment onto him. I'd feel sorry for him if it wasn't hilarious. And he wasn't him.

This feeds into his narrative if anything. Him with the referenfum mandate Vs the Remain establishment.

But you can use that as an argument, pretty much, for not opposing him on anything at all.

Fundamentally defeatist IMO.

[CumbrianLefty]

Quite a lot has happened in recent months that people previously thought wasn't possible. If the PM is banking on the inability of his opponents to agree a replacement, he could yet be disappointed again.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, that BoJo speech to the UN.......

Weird or what??

[CumbrianLefty]

You know, I'm beginning to get the impression this might not be a very good government

Not a very strong & stable government indeed. Still, could be worse... we could always have chaos with Ed Miliband, after all.

A reminder that in an alternate universe, his first term as PM still has half a year to run.

[CumbrianLefty]

So why does the opposition not want an election? They are that confident they would lose?

Because, assuming they win an outright majority, which is unlikely, it would leave them very little time to avoid no deal or a sh**t deal. If they get elected just before the summit, they'll have a week to settle on a policy.

Johnson wanted election day to be the Monday after Brexit IIRC. Which is also a ballsy move but his whole leadership campaign is about October 31st and getting Brexit over with. And judging by the polls most people are fed up too, so the opposition, particularly Labour's, contorted idea of yet another extension is not appealing.

This is over-simplifying it tbh, there is still quite a lot of support out there for the various options of "compromise" - extend/referendum/deal. Though both the Tories and LibDems dream of a GE with voters utterly polarised between no deal and revoke, we are still (thankfully) some way from that.

(and that doesn't contradict lots of people being fed up with Brexit and wanting it "over with" - the reality of course is that a no deal crashout is almost the worst possible way of getting that)

[CumbrianLefty]

It's a shame portal guns aren't real and we can't get a Jeremy Corbyn from an alternative timeline.

You're going to have to comb through a lot of alternate universes before you find a Jeremy Corbyn that isn't an incompetent, senile buffoon.

Seriously, there is not the slightest evidence he is "senile".

(you didn't actually believe that basically totally made up "exclusive" in the Times, did you?)

All credible indications are that he is very much compos mentis. Now, your other descriptors are at least arguable

[CumbrianLefty]

European Research Group's chair said that if the UK is still in the EU after 1 November and thus has to nominate an EU Commissioner then that Commissioner should be Nigel Farage.

Thanks for that, we could do with a laugh.

[CumbrianLefty]

No small EU country will veto an extension for the UK, its simply not in their long term interests to do so.

[CumbrianLefty]

As with a few other MPs who have been the subject of such allegations, there have been rumours about him for a while. Of course his neighbouring S Tyneside member is in bother of her own.

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson and Merkel discussed the proposed "deal" in a telephone call and it seems it was an utter disaster.

The Government appears to be pretending to want a deal still, but with the blame game having already started I have to wonder when they will formally announce they'll go with No Deal and whether the Opposition will get its act together to go with a VONC.

Simply not legally possible on Oct 31 at least, it is amazing how many still refuse to accept this. Without a deal they will now be forced to extend A50, the line will become "that was the fault of everybody else, not us".