Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

If anybody thinks France is acting like this out of commitment to human rights/democracy and any other big nice concepts, they're stupid.

Disagree, we're speaking of the emotional Sarkozy who also like to appear like a Zorro here, and it's not the 1st time the guy would take an emotional decision, in case the emotional factor would have effectively been important, and well, aside from a military fail, he has nothing to lose in doing that. Now, if you mean that the Transition Council would have promised things to France in the Presidential office, nobody has to be over-smart to imagine something like this possible, and well, if effectively so, ultimately there would be nothing morally shocking in that, and anyhow the point would remain that at the end of the day someone did something.

That being said, I also hope we will have good military officials to plan things here, because a minister of Gaddafi just said that in case of attack, they would attack all the civilian planes and boats they could, it would seems to already quickly go nervous then, because moreover I just hear that Gaddafi would have just stated that he now plans to attack Benghazi tonight. Which has just been answered by the fact that a foreign military intervention would begin right after the resolution is voted (which isn't guaranteed yet). Last noises say that the vote would take place at 10pm GMT.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Isn't it so damn obvious that Sarkozy is only acting like this to boost his international standing after his utter incompetence on Tunisia/Egypt and an attempt to place himself ahead of the US on the issue?

Here I agree, that'd indeed be part of the factors. Now, I'm not sure some people dared pretending 'Democracy/Human Rights' would be the main point in that, it's a bonus.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh ok, thanks.

In Benghazi, a radio has called for rebels to reach their defensive positions.
In New-York, apparently nobody would put a veto.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

3 strong blasts and some anti-aircraft shooting would have been heard in Benghazi.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Begins:

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

France24 has it in French for French.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

It did!

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Now the job begins.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Big joy in Benghazi.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

China, Russia, and Germany abstained.

Qatar and UAE (which on the other hand sent 500 policemen to Bahrain) will participate to the operations, but other Arab countries could too.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Is that the Benghazi crowd chanting 'One, Two, Three, Something Sarkozy"?

Oh, it would take the Algerian slogan back, well the Algerian one is '1! 2! 3! Viva l'Algérie!', lovely if so, seems there is the '1 2 3' part yes, it could be 'Viva Sarkozy' then, dunno.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

France24 announces that Italy offers its bases for operations.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Fine. On a French forum about geopolitics and military with guys who know more than me about military and especially French military, technically we could begin something from our own bases, even some things could be done directly from UK, beyond planes it could also pass by cruise missiles.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh and India and Brazil are the 2 others that abstained. It was supposed to be cool countries!

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, France24 announces that finally EU is ready to apply this resolution, in the limits of its competences, Germany wouldn't have tried to block it in the EU then.

Also weird statements of the Gaddafi's representative, who said they were ready to 'answer positively to this resolution'...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Is that the Benghazi crowd chanting 'One, Two, Three, Something Sarkozy"?

Oh, it would take the Algerian slogan back, well the Algerian one is '1! 2! 3! Viva l'Algérie!', lovely if so, seems there is the '1 2 3' part yes, it could be 'Viva Sarkozy' then, dunno.

Oh, according to someone else they were precisely saying: '1! 2! 3! Merci Sarkozy!'.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Canada will send 6 planes for the no-fly zone.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Lugar says the US shouldn't participate in a no-fly zone unless Congress passes a declaration of war:

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/17/lugar_no_fly_zone_requires_declaration_of_war

Well, I'd think, and hope, that France and UK, won't wait for the US Congress to eventually find this resolution cool, France alone would apparently have big means to do that, with the UK it's still more, we would really have all necessary equipment, Italy proposed its bases, EU proposed all what it could do, really, I hope we won't wait that the guys over the Atlantic find the temperature of the Mediterranean cool enough. Maybe the earliest and the less statu quo possible would be the best since declarations of Gaddafi camp about negotiation of ceasefire could only be here to gain time, I don't know, but anyways, at worst, if some nasty things begin, if we are ready on this side of the Atlantic, I hope we won't wait for the guys over there.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Canada will send 6 planes for the no-fly zone.

Hahahahahalololololol hahaha. Thankfully we're not sending our wooden ships, or else they'd get there by 2013.

Ah, I can't say, CBC is more optimistic than you though, they say they'll be over Libya under 24h, that are some CF-18 exactly, and 100 to 200 men would participate.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

After the UN vote:

http://feb17.info/

(it really seems to have been something in Benghazi, soldiers that will participate in that won't do it for nothing)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Is that the Benghazi crowd chanting 'One, Two, Three, Something Sarkozy"?

Oh, it would take the Algerian slogan back, well the Algerian one is '1! 2! 3! Viva l'Algérie!', lovely if so, seems there is the '1 2 3' part yes, it could be 'Viva Sarkozy' then, dunno.

Oh, according to someone else they were precisely saying: '1! 2! 3! Merci Sarkozy!'.

They should say "Allez ! Allez ! Juppé !" .

Well, to be fair, that decision has been fully unilaterally taken by Sarkozy (apparently with our new totally unofficial special envoy, BHL). That being said, yeah, it's a total refreshment to see Juppé here and especially with a bigger power of initiative.

The "ceasefire" is only a way for Gaddafi to try to save time, to delay Western strikes.
He knows that Super-Barack is very, very slow on the subject, that his friend Silvio won't help and he is delighted by Merkel's and Westerwelle's out-of-date "neutralism".
But he's weak: remember how quickly he drops his nuclear research in 2003-2004, worried by being next after Saddam ?

Indeed this ceasefire can be a way to save time, medical sources announced Misrata (West) being bombed this morning, that being said the unilateral ceasefire would have been declared after it, and frankly Merkel could have saved her last declaration about that, she said it was an 'encouraging sign', I'm not sure how it is smart or just makes sense to give so early credit to Gaddafi given who he can be and what he already did, if she doesn't want to participate for any reason, fine, it's not a reason to try to find any sign especially totally hazardous ones to try to make your position look legitimate while we are in a total floating moment.

That being said, let's watch the acts of Gaddafi while preparing ourselves, we can certainly monitor whether their troops use this time to better organize themselves or not. I heard that some officials in Paris would say that they would anyways listen to what rebels say about it before intervening, which is the way to go since we intervene in their name, but France also said that indeed it stays very vigilant. I hear contradictory sounds from what the rebels say, according to a source one of their representation would say it is a 'big step', but according to an other source who would be the 'commandant of the insurrection', named Khalifa Heftir, he considers it a 'bluff'.

A meeting about that is currently on with PM, Juppé, and others, in Matignon. Also, on the diplomatic front, seems the summit with EU, AU, and Arab League, in which there will also be Ban Ki Moon, tomorrow in Paris, will be a big step, notably to know which Arab country would participate.

Maybe Gaddafi is trying to gain time, but it also permits the coalition to gain time too to organize things, because on the military front there will be several parts to coordinate, so far here have been what I've heard about who would join:

Italy and Spain propose some bases
Canada 6 CF-18
Denmark 6 F-16
Arab countries have still to say what they will do exactly.

Tomorrow with this summit would become the big day after which all could begin if nothing started before, in case some nasty things would begin before, apparently some French and UK planes could act immediately. Apparently the UK will send their Typhoons and their Tornados, Tornados were those the guys on the French forum about military counted on and which would be some good complementary with French planes in such an operation.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, you never know, but really seems in this conflict, according to all what I could have seen from the West and the East, Libyans went a step beyond the tribal factor here, I'm not saying it would totally disappear, but seems they are really beyond that here, they would clearly be Libyans here.

Last news I heard:

Tunisia won't participate to any military operation. Well, understandable, they really don't have an army sized to intervene abroad, and they have home matters to deal with, they can't afford having to deal with some possibly heavy retaliations, they are the closest from Tripoli.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ah, about the political situation in France about that, apparently nobody opposed it so far (which you can see as something when you know how strong anti-Sarkozysism can be well spread here). Let's also note the floating boat of Aubry, when Sarkozy first spoke of air strikes one week ago she kinda said it was 'daring', now she is glad of the resolution...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Belgium said it would propose some F-16 and some warships within a NATO operation.
Netherlands are studying a military participation too.

Also, the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is still in Toulon, and if it has to participate, it wouldn't be there before Tuesday, but since Italy proposed its bases maybe it wouldn't even be used, but anyways, the French defensive frigate Forbin arrived close to Benghazi, it's a very modern one which can detect jets on 400 km around and which can immediately retaliate to any attack with a range of several hundreds of kilometers too.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So serious things are about to begin ?

Hey, not sure if there is even someone who knows it, I said how I saw it so far in a preceding post, if Gaddafi doesn't move, it could need the summit of tomorrow to move. Boats already there would be for ensuring defensive measures in between.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

According to Al Jazeera, intense fights are taking place 50 km south-west from Benghazi, AFP reports a big blast and some anti-aircraft defense have been heard in Benghazi. Some bombings would be continuing on Zenten (west), Misrata, and Ajdabiya.

A few hours ago France said it was totally ready.
In the afternoon the rebels and the coalized forces coordinated some air strikes.
Some French and UK jets could take off before the summit of tomorrow in Paris.
The French base of Solenzara (southern Corsica) has been set in big emergency state this afternoon. Some planes coming from other parts of France could arrive there soon, some Awaks, some Rafales, some Mirages, and some refueler planes. A French base in Chad is on emergency state too.

Clinton would participate to the summit in Paris tomorrow.
France reaffirmed it didn't want of NATO.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Belgium said it would propose some F-16 and some warships within a NATO operation.

Those are as it happens in Greece, too. So they can act within hours of a green light by the French/Americans/British axis.

Yes, because moreover I have read afterward that it would also propose it out of a NATO operation, which France doesn't want.