Will China Invade Taiwan?

[dead0man]

The question is, When will China invade Taiwan? I don't think it'll be any time soon.

Maybe in 2025 or 2026 if Donald Trump gets re-elected in 2024. If not, then China will hold off on invading Taiwan until sometime in the 2050s or 2060s.

I don’t think it’ll be that extreme.

Taiwan ain't getting closer, physically or politically.  There is no reason to think the PRC gear or dudes will be that much better in the future.

[dead0man]

They are still growing at a fast rate but they have their own headwinds.

I'd argue it's more likely the PRC will collapse before it takes Taiwan.

[dead0man]

They are still growing at a fast rate but they have their own headwinds.

I'd argue it's more likely the PRC will collapse before it takes Taiwan.

Where are you getting this from?

the numerous large internal issues the PRC faces or will be facing in the coming years

[dead0man]

those are reasons and evidence that they want to, I don't think anyone doubts that they want to.  The problem is the 110 miles of ocean, their complete lack of military experience and their cheap copies of poorly understood technologies in their military gear.  I knew they couldn't do it before Russia's embarrassing actions over the last week and that showed even the most biased CCP bot how difficult such a task would be.

You may be right though, and the PRC will try an invasion before 2032, but it will go very poorly for them.

[dead0man]

Yes. It's a matter of time. There is no chance for peaceful reunification, so it will be liberation instead. I agree that the Russo-Ukrainian war has, or at least it should, serve as a warning to China about invading Taiwan. But that means we need to build up the strength of the PLA further and make more meticulous and better plans and preparations, not give up the idea. Also this war has increased the chance that Taiwan, particularly under the current authorities, will declare independence, which means we will attack regardless of how ready the PLA is.

Doubt it, that is still a pretty obvious "red line".

but after watching Russia's troubles, maybe the calculus has changed.  If they do declare independence tomorrow, what is the PRC going to do?  Cry more?  Pooh can't do sh**t to them, the entire world knows that now.  Even the PRC shill you are quoting knows it.

[dead0man]

so Taiwan stays in limbo forever or at least on the PRC's timetable?  Eff that noise, it's high time we stop letting authoritarian sh**t holes run the foreign policy of their weaker neighbors.

[dead0man]

Eventually, almost surely.

how are they going to solve the issues* that make it impossible today?


*1.Taiwan being an island 110 miles away
B.having zero military experience
III.using bad copies of 20 year old stolen tech
d.Taiwan having friends

[dead0man]

that's what I've said for years, there is little reason to fear the Chinese military.  There size makes them hard to attack on their home soil, but anything beyond their borders is going to go worse than what Russia is experiencing in Ukraine.

[dead0man]

Dontcha remember all those fearmongering "China has the biggest navy" stories from a couple of years ago?  They've got a carrier!  Aren't you scared?  Awwww, come on, be scared.  Please?

[dead0man]

it be a shame if they got Stuxneted

[dead0man]

I don't see how Vietnam would be much easier than Taiwan.  Sure, there isn't the 100+ miles of open ocean to cross, but the the Vietnamese are a tough people.  When was the last time they lost a war? To the French in the 1860s?  When was the last time Communist China won one?  When they bravely took Tibet?  The last time the PRC attacked a country for no reason it was Vietnam and it went as well for them as invading Ukraine has been for Russia.  A lot of similarities there too.  Larger country invades smaller one, thinks it's going to be easy.  Smaller country has big friends that support it.  Larger country's military is a big embarrassment, fails to achieve easy goals early in war.  Military of larger country steals food and consumer goods from civilians because the larger country doesn't teach logistics at military academies (or much of anything really, how to be mean to conscripts I guess).

[dead0man]

I miss our little Private in the 50 Cent Army.