Will China Invade Taiwan?

[Meclazine for Israel]

A week ago, I would have said yes following Russia's move into Ukraine.

But now, I am not so sure.

Will China Invade Taiwan?

https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/for-xi-putin-s-invasion-is-a-test-run-for-taiwan-20220228-p5a0fb

"Ukraine (population, 44 million) and Taiwan (24 million) are not bite-sized automatons that will happily spring to life under new masters who will not allow them to express their views or elect their governments.

That applies doubly for Taiwan, which has deeper democratic roots than Ukraine, and a more successful economy and entrenched middle class."

[BlueSwan]

Not any time in the near future, no.

[MATTROSE94]

I doubt it at least for now. Maybe if Donald Trump wins in 2024, China will go for Taiwan however.

[CumbrianLefty]

Less likely than it was a week ago I agree, beyond that though its hard to say.

[DaleCooper]

The question is, When will China invade Taiwan? I don't think it'll be any time soon.

[Ferguson97]

No. Xi is much more rational than Putin, and just saw how quickly the world would respond to such a move.

[Person Man]

It’s too soon to tell. At this rate, it does look like the current situation will serve as more of a deterrent than an invitation.

[brucejoel99]

That'd go as well as assuming that Ukraine would be a federal subject of the Russian Federation within 48 hrs. of invasion.

[MATTROSE94]

The question is, When will China invade Taiwan? I don't think it'll be any time soon.

Maybe in 2025 or 2026 if Donald Trump gets re-elected in 2024. If not, then China will hold off on invading Taiwan until sometime in the 2050s or 2060s.

[Person Man]

The question is, When will China invade Taiwan? I don't think it'll be any time soon.

Maybe in 2025 or 2026 if Donald Trump gets re-elected in 2024. If not, then China will hold off on invading Taiwan until sometime in the 2050s or 2060s.

I don’t think it’ll be that extreme.

[dead0man]

The question is, When will China invade Taiwan? I don't think it'll be any time soon.

Maybe in 2025 or 2026 if Donald Trump gets re-elected in 2024. If not, then China will hold off on invading Taiwan until sometime in the 2050s or 2060s.

I don’t think it’ll be that extreme.

Taiwan ain't getting closer, physically or politically.  There is no reason to think the PRC gear or dudes will be that much better in the future.

[Person Man]

The question is, When will China invade Taiwan? I don't think it'll be any time soon.

Maybe in 2025 or 2026 if Donald Trump gets re-elected in 2024. If not, then China will hold off on invading Taiwan until sometime in the 2050s or 2060s.

I don’t think it’ll be that extreme.

Taiwan ain't getting closer, physically or politically.  There is no reason to think the PRC gear or dudes will be that much better in the future.

They are still growing at a fast rate but they have their own headwinds.

[2952-0-0]

In the past few days, the tone of China's diplomats, and the official media, have suddenly become more friendly to the west. Also, pro-Russian trolls on Chinese social media have been cracked down upon, a sign that the authorities are nervous.

Also, if the Ukraine war ends with Putin committing suicide by falling from a window with three bullets in the head, then we can definitely answer that question in the negative.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

China is more cautious than Putin, so after the events of this last week, it's being pushed back. I'm sure they still plan to take it some time this century. I'm sure they could have invaded Kinmen long ago, but it's not worth it.

[Kingpoleon]

The question is, When will China invade Taiwan? I don't think it'll be any time soon.

Maybe in 2025 or 2026 if Donald Trump gets re-elected in 2024. If not, then China will hold off on invading Taiwan until sometime in the 2050s or 2060s.

If Trump really said what they say he did to Xi, I can't imagine China invading with him in office.

[dead0man]

They are still growing at a fast rate but they have their own headwinds.

I'd argue it's more likely the PRC will collapse before it takes Taiwan.

[Frodo]

They are still growing at a fast rate but they have their own headwinds.

I'd argue it's more likely the PRC will collapse before it takes Taiwan.

Where are you getting this from?

[dead0man]

They are still growing at a fast rate but they have their own headwinds.

I'd argue it's more likely the PRC will collapse before it takes Taiwan.

Where are you getting this from?

the numerous large internal issues the PRC faces or will be facing in the coming years

[Frodo]

The question is, When will China invade Taiwan? I don't think it'll be any time soon.

Maybe in 2025 or 2026 if Donald Trump gets re-elected in 2024. If not, then China will hold off on invading Taiwan until sometime in the 2050s or 2060s.

I wonder if the Communist regime will even still be in power by mid-century. 

[brucejoel99]

The question is, When will China invade Taiwan? I don't think it'll be any time soon.

Maybe in 2025 or 2026 if Donald Trump gets re-elected in 2024. If not, then China will hold off on invading Taiwan until sometime in the 2050s or 2060s.

I wonder if the Communist regime will even still be in power by mid-century.

It's highly unlikely that the CCP goes anywhere. It's a century old now. They're staying for a long, long time to come.

[David Hume]

Not any time in the near future, no.

I follow Chinese politics extremely closely. While I don't think they will invade Taiwan in one or two years, I believe XI is determined to "finish the unification of China" during his tenure. It is very likely they do it before 2027.

[brucejoel99]

Not any time in the near future, no.

I follow Chinese politics extremely closely. While I don't think they will invade Taiwan in one or two years, I believe XI is determined to "finish the unification of China" during his tenure. It is very likely they do it before 2027.

How closely? Because China isn't stupid. If a rando netizen from Florida is capable of understanding that an invasion would be militarily unfeasible for them, then they already understand that too. Don't you think that if they really wanted to invade Taiwan that they would've done it already? Have you never asked yourself why, for decades, China has never gone beyond more than the economic & diplomatic isolation? Pragmatically speaking, the CCP would be happy to allow the status-quo to remain in effect, with Taiwain remaining the satellite state that it's pretty much been since the '70s in perpetuity. The Korea-like saber-rattling is just for domestic consumption (e.g., in Xinjiang, where they've resorted to military occupation).

[David Hume]

Not any time in the near future, no.

I follow Chinese politics extremely closely. While I don't think they will invade Taiwan in one or two years, I believe XI is determined to "finish the unification of China" during his tenure. It is very likely they do it before 2027.

How closely? Because China isn't stupid. If a rando netizen from Florida is capable of understanding that an invasion would be militarily unfeasible for them, then they already understand that too. Don't you think that if they really wanted to invade Taiwan that they would've done it already? Have you never asked yourself why, for decades, China has never gone beyond more than the economic & diplomatic isolation? Pragmatically speaking, the CCP would be happy to allow the status-quo to remain in effect, with Taiwain remaining the satellite state that it's pretty much been since the '70s in perpetuity. The Korea-like saber-rattling is just for domestic consumption (e.g., in Xinjiang, where they've resorted to military occupation).

They are not able to do it now, but this doesn't mean they won't be able to do it forever.

1, They used to think time is no their side. However, China's rapid economic growth is slowing down, and they are facing serious aging problems. Besides, back in the 90s, a lot of Taiwanese still consider themselves Chinese and not in favor of Taiwan independence. This was because they were educated during the Chinese Nationalist regime, whose official goal was to recovery the mainland and unite the country, and discussion of Taiwan independence was forbidden. Things changes dramatically afterwards and only around 10% Taiwanese support unification. It's clear to CCP that peaceful unification is almost impossible.

2, Since 1992, each paramount leader of CCP has two terms of 10 years in total. A heir apparent was usually installed in the Politburo Standing Committee to warm up. But in 2017 CCP's "election", Xi did not install the heir apparent. And in 2018, they amended the constitution to abolish the term limit of the President. This was an extremely unusual move that breaks all political norms, and requires enormous political capitals. All senior party bosses had to sign on to it, since this was against their interests. The only plausible reason was Xi promised to unite Taiwan during his tenure. This is almost the consensus of Chinese politics analysts.

3, Xi desires to be recorded in history as "Xi the Great". His propaganda team already boast him as comparable to Mao, despite he has no comparable achievements at all. He has hinted that he will achieve national unification in numerous speeches.

4, The Chinese propaganda has been trying to persuade citizens to support invasion of Taiwan in recent years, and is quite successful. Their military moves like flying across Taiwan AIDZ become more and more aggressive.


All these signs point to that they are preparing for an invasion, likely before 2027, at the latest before 2032.

[dead0man]

those are reasons and evidence that they want to, I don't think anyone doubts that they want to.  The problem is the 110 miles of ocean, their complete lack of military experience and their cheap copies of poorly understood technologies in their military gear.  I knew they couldn't do it before Russia's embarrassing actions over the last week and that showed even the most biased CCP bot how difficult such a task would be.

You may be right though, and the PRC will try an invasion before 2032, but it will go very poorly for them.

[Frodo]

I think we need to separate the Putin of 2014 and prior, from the Putin of now. For all the genius he's displayed in the past, there's increasing evidence he's increasingly senile (and that's not a word I use lightly).

Xi Jinping is about the same age as Putin, perhaps a year younger.  If he starts getting as similarly senile and paranoid as Putin has become, an invasion of Taiwan is probably inevitable barring us stationing nuclear weapons and/or American troops (in at least the tens of thousands) on the island nation.  Which should give us every reason in the world to ensure their defenses are state-of-the-art with all the latest weaponry and know-how.  And we need to be urgent about it -time is of the essence.