Official North Carolina Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Franzl]

I'm hearing black turnout is huge.

Where are you getting that?

[Franzl]

isnt't 1/3 black in NC incredibly low? or is that just my impression?

[Franzl]

Exit polls that came out before the results came in showed Hillary winning California by close to double digits. And that is ultimately by how much she won California.

Obama tends to overperform in exit polls because older voters are less likely to respond to them, because they're now generally conducted by college students.

The early California exits had Clinton up about 12, IIRC, which is notably more than the 8 she got.

And again, please show me a source that substantiates your claim that early voters are measured in exit polls (how?  By mashing phone interviews into exit poll interviews?).

But that would mean that Clinton, in fact, was overstated in the exit

[Franzl]

But that would mean that Clinton, in fact, was understated in the exit

Well...no...but forget this.  My train of thought has totally derailed.  This is an excessively complicated explanation proving that exit polls don't include early voters, when really I should just be demanding proof that they do. 

I understand

[Franzl]

Huffington Post has a leak of total numbers:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

Clinton +5 in IN
Obama +12 in NC

that would be extremely positive for Clinton, I believe.

[Franzl]

He's basically out of ideas. (and a bit delusional)

It was a bad night for him, having blindly supported Survey USA's numbers without listening to any opposition or criticisms from other posters about the numbers, while calling everyone else a hack when he himself is most clearly one of the most hackish on this forum.