Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

Netanyahu is now officially indicted with the District Court of Jerusalem having both territorial and subject-matter jurisdiction. As the law dictates that a PM's trial is in front of trio tribunal it is now going to be a big bet on who the judges will be. The court in Jerusalem has quite a lot of right wingers, some are fine and excellent jurist like Winograd, some are more partisan like Zandberg. Interestingly the wife of Yuval Steinitz is a judge of that court, but she will obviously sit this one out.

It will obviously include the court's president Farkash who is right leaning, one of his deputies, and a more criminally oriented judge. Netanyahu did well, if he were to be forced out before he would have stood trial before the court in Tel Aviv which is less favorable to him

Mandelblit is a boss. He dropped the indictment when Bibi was in Washington hoping to distract everyone with a shiny but basically fake peace plan served on a platter Trump-style. All of a sudden the joke of the century is pushed to the margins and everyone talking about Bibi's corruption again. It makes Gantz look even more beautiful for indulging Trump even though everyone knows Israel will be a very different country in just over a month from now and any peace plan would have to reflect that new reality and wouldn't involve Bibi Netanyahu.

[Walmart_shopper]

I’m going to carefully say that I think Gantz lost the elections yesterday. JL voter turnout is going to dip and the right wing won’t move now. It will either be a unity government of a 4th run.

No, I think exactly the opposite. I think Bibi and Trump lit a bomb underneath the right wing and Gantz was smart enough to quickly get out of the way before it goes off. I also think it will energize rather than depress Arab turnout.

What do you think Gantz did wrong?

[Walmart_shopper]

I’m going to carefully say that I think Gantz lost the elections yesterday. JL voter turnout is going to dip and the right wing won’t move now. It will either be a unity government of a 4th run.

No, I think exactly the opposite. I think Bibi and Trump lit a bomb underneath the right wing and Gantz was smart enough to quickly get out of the way before it goes off. I also think it will energize rather than depress Arab turnout.

What do you think Gantz did wrong?

Gantz was in a bit of a pickle here. this was Bibi's show and he was working on it for more than 2 years. he foolishly entered the right wing contest with Likud, but maybe that's wisdom in hindsight.

Arab turnout will go down, now they don't see a difference between them and there's no great urgency in replacing Bibi for the ex-general. and now he also lost their recommendations. also Bibi flanked him from the right, he now can't offer NR or Shas anything to pull them away from the bloc, plus Bibi can pressure YB into a government now under some strategic pretense.

Where did Gantz go wrong? well he (his crew headed by Yoram) working brilliantly tactically, doing a quid for quo with Likud. But Bibi is a man of strategy, he knew he can pull this rabbit out at anytime.
in hindsight letting Hendel and Hauser screw the minority government option ended him, and then moving the discussion into the annexation a week ago was even more foolish.

I think he will be forced into a unity government with YB in as well as some grand national unity government for the annexation and coming Intifada.

Embracing the plan is a step to the left and not right for not only Gantz and not Bibi. Netanyahu has since Bar Ilan used as a campaign centerpiece the idea that only he can prevent a Palestinian state. Now he vocally supports one. Gantz has explicitly refused to endorse the 2 state solution. Now he vocally supports is. You are absolutely correct that the Trump plan is an immoral catastrophe for the Palestnians. But the point is that not only does everyone realize that it will never be actualized but that even if it were it would still be an improvement on the apartheid-like madness that currently exists.

But I actually think it's a real mistake to assume that Arab voters are mainly or even especially fixated on the Palestine question.  The reason that Arab voters sat out the April election was, in part, a belief that tbe Arab parties were more concerned with Palestinians than Arab voters in Israel. Arab voters oppose Netanyahu and the fantatical right not only because the apartheidal treatment of Palestinians, but mainly because Arabs can't build just and hope-filled communities in Israel because they face racism and discrimination. It stinks that Palestinians can't have a state. It stinks even more that THIS state is shrugging at historic gun violence in Arab towns simply because they are Arab towns. It's grossly wrong that Palestinians can't access shipling ports. It's even worse that the nation state law opens up the door to prevent Arabs in Israel fron accessing affordable housing, decent infrastructure, and the keys to economic success.

If I were Gantz I probably would have played this differently. But I certainly don't think that doing the way he did will hurt him. As I said, I think it is far more likely to open up divisions on the right rather than left.

[Walmart_shopper]

I’m going to carefully say that I think Gantz lost the elections yesterday. JL voter turnout is going to dip and the right wing won’t move now. It will either be a unity government of a 4th run.

No, I think exactly the opposite. I think Bibi and Trump lit a bomb underneath the right wing and Gantz was smart enough to quickly get out of the way before it goes off. I also think it will energize rather than depress Arab turnout.

What do you think Gantz did wrong?

Gantz was in a bit of a pickle here. this was Bibi's show and he was working on it for more than 2 years. he foolishly entered the right wing contest with Likud, but maybe that's wisdom in hindsight.

Arab turnout will go down, now they don't see a difference between them and there's no great urgency in replacing Bibi for the ex-general. and now he also lost their recommendations. also Bibi flanked him from the right, he now can't offer NR or Shas anything to pull them away from the bloc, plus Bibi can pressure YB into a government now under some strategic pretense.

Where did Gantz go wrong? well he (his crew headed by Yoram) working brilliantly tactically, doing a quid for quo with Likud. But Bibi is a man of strategy, he knew he can pull this rabbit out at anytime.
in hindsight letting Hendel and Hauser screw the minority government option ended him, and then moving the discussion into the annexation a week ago was even more foolish.

I think he will be forced into a unity government with YB in as well as some grand national unity government for the annexation and coming Intifada.

Embracing the plan is a step to the left and not right for not only Gantz and not Bibi. Netanyahu has since Bar Ilan used as a campaign centerpiece the idea that only he can prevent a Palestinian state. Now he vocally supports one. Gantz has explicitly refused to endorse the 2 state solution. Now he vocally supports is. You are absolutely correct that the Trump plan is an immoral catastrophe for the Palestnians. But the point is that not only does everyone realize that it will never be actualized but that even if it were it would still be an improvement on the apartheid-like madness that currently exists.

But I actually think it's a real mistake to assume that Arab voters are mainly or even especially fixated on the Palestine question.  The reason that Arab voters sat out the April election was, in part, a belief that tbe Arab parties were more concerned with Palestinians than Arab voters in Israel. Arab voters oppose Netanyahu and the fantatical right not only because the apartheidal treatment of Palestinians, but mainly because Arabs can't build just and hope-filled communities in Israel because they face racism and discrimination. It stinks that Palestinians can't have a state. It stinks even more that THIS state is shrugging at historic gun violence in Arab towns simply because they are Arab towns. It's grossly wrong that Palestinians can't access shipling ports. It's even worse that the nation state law opens up the door to prevent Arabs in Israel fron accessing affordable housing, decent infrastructure, and the keys to economic success.

If I were Gantz I probably would have played this differently. But I certainly don't think that doing the way he did will hurt him. As I said, I think it is far more likely to open up divisions on the right rather than left.

I don’t think this plan is a 2SS because the Palestine envisioned there isn’t really a state. It’s Bibi’s motto “State Minus”.

I think Arab voter turnout who have gone down anyhow, but I think the major issue here is that Gantz supported a plan that might espouse population swap which is racist and offensive to many Arab voters (quite rightly).

Yeah, I didn't realize that Umm al Fahm and other Arab towns in the north would be transfered to the new Palestinian quasi-state under the plan. And now Gantz wants to approve the plan even before election day.

This country...smh.

[Walmart_shopper]

I’m going to carefully say that I think Gantz lost the elections yesterday. JL voter turnout is going to dip and the right wing won’t move now. It will either be a unity government of a 4th run.

No, I think exactly the opposite. I think Bibi and Trump lit a bomb underneath the right wing and Gantz was smart enough to quickly get out of the way before it goes off. I also think it will energize rather than depress Arab turnout.

What do you think Gantz did wrong?

Gantz was in a bit of a pickle here. this was Bibi's show and he was working on it for more than 2 years. he foolishly entered the right wing contest with Likud, but maybe that's wisdom in hindsight.

Arab turnout will go down, now they don't see a difference between them and there's no great urgency in replacing Bibi for the ex-general. and now he also lost their recommendations. also Bibi flanked him from the right, he now can't offer NR or Shas anything to pull them away from the bloc, plus Bibi can pressure YB into a government now under some strategic pretense.

Where did Gantz go wrong? well he (his crew headed by Yoram) working brilliantly tactically, doing a quid for quo with Likud. But Bibi is a man of strategy, he knew he can pull this rabbit out at anytime.
in hindsight letting Hendel and Hauser screw the minority government option ended him, and then moving the discussion into the annexation a week ago was even more foolish.

I think he will be forced into a unity government with YB in as well as some grand national unity government for the annexation and coming Intifada.

Embracing the plan is a step to the left and not right for not only Gantz and not Bibi. Netanyahu has since Bar Ilan used as a campaign centerpiece the idea that only he can prevent a Palestinian state. Now he vocally supports one. Gantz has explicitly refused to endorse the 2 state solution. Now he vocally supports is. You are absolutely correct that the Trump plan is an immoral catastrophe for the Palestnians. But the point is that not only does everyone realize that it will never be actualized but that even if it were it would still be an improvement on the apartheid-like madness that currently exists.

But I actually think it's a real mistake to assume that Arab voters are mainly or even especially fixated on the Palestine question.  The reason that Arab voters sat out the April election was, in part, a belief that tbe Arab parties were more concerned with Palestinians than Arab voters in Israel. Arab voters oppose Netanyahu and the fantatical right not only because the apartheidal treatment of Palestinians, but mainly because Arabs can't build just and hope-filled communities in Israel because they face racism and discrimination. It stinks that Palestinians can't have a state. It stinks even more that THIS state is shrugging at historic gun violence in Arab towns simply because they are Arab towns. It's grossly wrong that Palestinians can't access shipling ports. It's even worse that the nation state law opens up the door to prevent Arabs in Israel fron accessing affordable housing, decent infrastructure, and the keys to economic success.

If I were Gantz I probably would have played this differently. But I certainly don't think that doing the way he did will hurt him. As I said, I think it is far more likely to open up divisions on the right rather than left.

I don’t think this plan is a 2SS because the Palestine envisioned there isn’t really a state. It’s Bibi’s motto “State Minus”.

I think Arab voter turnout who have gone down anyhow, but I think the major issue here is that Gantz supported a plan that might espouse population swap which is racist and offensive to many Arab voters (quite rightly).

Yeah, I didn't realize that Umm al Fahm and other Arab towns in the north would be transfered to the new Palestinian quasi-state under the plan. And now Gantz wants to approve the plan even before election day.

This country...smh.

The Palestinians taking Umm Al Fahm is justified, honestly.

Why don't we ask the residents of Umm Al Fahm before we change their citizenship without consent?

That's the point. I am not a huge fan of uprooting settlers from their homes, either, by the way. But at leaat thet don't lose their citizenship when that happens. The insane "transfer" ideology is simply ethnic cleansing, and for Israelis of all people to champion an ideology like that is breathtakingly sick.

[Walmart_shopper]

I’m going to carefully say that I think Gantz lost the elections yesterday. JL voter turnout is going to dip and the right wing won’t move now. It will either be a unity government of a 4th run.

No, I think exactly the opposite. I think Bibi and Trump lit a bomb underneath the right wing and Gantz was smart enough to quickly get out of the way before it goes off. I also think it will energize rather than depress Arab turnout.

What do you think Gantz did wrong?

Gantz was in a bit of a pickle here. this was Bibi's show and he was working on it for more than 2 years. he foolishly entered the right wing contest with Likud, but maybe that's wisdom in hindsight.

Arab turnout will go down, now they don't see a difference between them and there's no great urgency in replacing Bibi for the ex-general. and now he also lost their recommendations. also Bibi flanked him from the right, he now can't offer NR or Shas anything to pull them away from the bloc, plus Bibi can pressure YB into a government now under some strategic pretense.

Where did Gantz go wrong? well he (his crew headed by Yoram) working brilliantly tactically, doing a quid for quo with Likud. But Bibi is a man of strategy, he knew he can pull this rabbit out at anytime.
in hindsight letting Hendel and Hauser screw the minority government option ended him, and then moving the discussion into the annexation a week ago was even more foolish.

I think he will be forced into a unity government with YB in as well as some grand national unity government for the annexation and coming Intifada.

Embracing the plan is a step to the left and not right for not only Gantz and not Bibi. Netanyahu has since Bar Ilan used as a campaign centerpiece the idea that only he can prevent a Palestinian state. Now he vocally supports one. Gantz has explicitly refused to endorse the 2 state solution. Now he vocally supports is. You are absolutely correct that the Trump plan is an immoral catastrophe for the Palestnians. But the point is that not only does everyone realize that it will never be actualized but that even if it were it would still be an improvement on the apartheid-like madness that currently exists.

But I actually think it's a real mistake to assume that Arab voters are mainly or even especially fixated on the Palestine question.  The reason that Arab voters sat out the April election was, in part, a belief that tbe Arab parties were more concerned with Palestinians than Arab voters in Israel. Arab voters oppose Netanyahu and the fantatical right not only because the apartheidal treatment of Palestinians, but mainly because Arabs can't build just and hope-filled communities in Israel because they face racism and discrimination. It stinks that Palestinians can't have a state. It stinks even more that THIS state is shrugging at historic gun violence in Arab towns simply because they are Arab towns. It's grossly wrong that Palestinians can't access shipling ports. It's even worse that the nation state law opens up the door to prevent Arabs in Israel fron accessing affordable housing, decent infrastructure, and the keys to economic success.

If I were Gantz I probably would have played this differently. But I certainly don't think that doing the way he did will hurt him. As I said, I think it is far more likely to open up divisions on the right rather than left.

I don’t think this plan is a 2SS because the Palestine envisioned there isn’t really a state. It’s Bibi’s motto “State Minus”.

I think Arab voter turnout who have gone down anyhow, but I think the major issue here is that Gantz supported a plan that might espouse population swap which is racist and offensive to many Arab voters (quite rightly).

Yeah, I didn't realize that Umm al Fahm and other Arab towns in the north would be transfered to the new Palestinian quasi-state under the plan. And now Gantz wants to approve the plan even before election day.

This country...smh.

The Palestinians taking Umm Al Fahm is justified, honestly.

Why don't we ask the residents of Umm Al Fahm before we change their citizenship without consent?

Umm, they call themselves ‘Palestinian’, fly Palestinian flags, lionize Raed Salah, worship the Muslim brotherhood and so on. It’s clear what the answer is.

Lots and lots of North American Jews have Israeli flags all over the place. Basically none of them want to involuntarily relinquish their US or Canadian citizenship to become Israelis.

Arab identity in Israel is incredibly complex. It is unsurprising that Donald Trump cannot appreciate that complexity.

[Walmart_shopper]

Some Israeli Arab Christians want to remain in Israel because they expect Israel will do more to protect minority rights than a Palestinian state.

Some Israeli Muslims even want to remain in Israel because they expect Israel will provide better social services than a Palestinian state.

Very very few Arab Israelis want to remain in Israel out of a sense of patriotism or loyalty though. Why would they? Even if the Nation-State Law hadn't made it explicit, there's always been the implicit understanding that the state is not for them. To say that they are not loyal to Israel is not an attack on them, it's a value neutral state, it's completely rational for them not to be loyal to Israel.

Comparing how Arab Israelis feel about Israel to how Jewish Americans feel about America is ridiculous. America was not founded on Jewish land, it hasn't hindered the existence of a Jewish state (it's actually done the opposite). Beyond the most surface level, the two situations have almost nothing in common.

Umm Al Fahm should be in Palestine. If a Palestinian state does come into being and Umm Al Fahm isn't part of it, it will only be to appease liberal Jewish Israelis (not Arab Israelis) who dislike the idea of an ethnostate and get warm fuzzies at the though of any non-Jew living in Israel.

 

I don't understand your distinction between Jewish nationalism in America and Palestinian nationalism in Israel. Yes, obviously a traditionally Zionist superpower like America has different political contours than a small ethnostate like Israel. But the only reason I can fathom that you would assert that it's totally legitimate for US Jews to wrap themselves in Israeli flags but not for for Palestinian Israelis to wrap themselves in Palestinian flags is that you like Jewish nationalism much more than you like Palestinian nationalism. The point is that you should be able to wave an Israeli flag and keep your US citizenship. And you should be able to wave your Palestinian flag and keep your Arab citizenship.

Your view of patriotism is also particularly odd. The Arab Israelis demanding Israel abide by its founding principles and constitutional commitments to equality and democracy seem to me far more patriotic than the right wing zealots advocating ethnic cleansing and suppression of non-Jewish minorities. The nation state law is atrocious not because it cements in law a historical "implicit understanding" of Jewish political supremacy but precisely the opposite--that Jewish leaders have always told Arabs that they are equal citizens who's identity is no more or less important in a democratic state like Israel and the nation state law says exactly the opposite.

So celebrating the citizenship and identity of non-Jews in Israel is not just about giving liberals a thrill. It is about fidelity to the values and pluralistic identity of the state itself.  The mythical Jewish monolith you imagine (desire?) to be is obviously not my Israel and more importantly it isn't the real Israel.  It wasn't made to be that, and with over a quarter of the population consisting of non-Jews it isn't that today, either.

Tossing Umm al Fahm to Palestine because its residents are brown Arabs who don't clutch the Israeli flag as dogmatically and absurdly as certain American Jews and Israeli right wingers is every bit as racist and bigoted as it seems.

Lol that’s some WACK false equivalence

Is it bigoted if I said Fermanagh should go to the Republic of Ireland because the majority of people in that county are Catholic, ethnically Irish, Sinn Fein voting Republicans? Because that’s a legitimate political debate (and actually what the majority want) as opposed to some disgusting statement.

I mean, this "if you love Country X so much why don't you move there" trope is used all over the world. And it's wrong. It's wrong when it is used against Mexican Americans waving Mexican flags on Cinco de Mayo. It's wrong when it's used against Palestinians. The one group we don't use it against is, of course, Jews, despite the fact that Jewish nationalism has a profound impact on, for example, American politics. It is considered a supreme act of anti-Semitic bias to question Jewish loyalty simply because of Jewish attachment to the Jewish state. Jewish nationalism is a legitimate expression of personal and political identity. It is totally possible to love Israel even more than America and literally wrap yourself in the Israeli flag and still be a good American. Thankfully we resist the bigotry of questioning Jewish loyalty. It's absurd that we don't recognize Palestinians in Israel as being allowed to have the same attachment and solidarity with their own homeland without questioning their loyalty.

But the real point is that we aren't even talking about whether the flag-wavers in Umm al Fahm should ho live in Palestine. We are talking about the State of Israel forcibly stripping an entire city of its citizenship simply based on ethnicity and culture to satisfy a peace plan that no Palestinian wants in the first place. Can you not see how egregious that is?

[Walmart_shopper]

Some Israeli Arab Christians want to remain in Israel because they expect Israel will do more to protect minority rights than a Palestinian state.

Some Israeli Muslims even want to remain in Israel because they expect Israel will provide better social services than a Palestinian state.

Very very few Arab Israelis want to remain in Israel out of a sense of patriotism or loyalty though. Why would they? Even if the Nation-State Law hadn't made it explicit, there's always been the implicit understanding that the state is not for them. To say that they are not loyal to Israel is not an attack on them, it's a value neutral state, it's completely rational for them not to be loyal to Israel.

Comparing how Arab Israelis feel about Israel to how Jewish Americans feel about America is ridiculous. America was not founded on Jewish land, it hasn't hindered the existence of a Jewish state (it's actually done the opposite). Beyond the most surface level, the two situations have almost nothing in common.

Umm Al Fahm should be in Palestine. If a Palestinian state does come into being and Umm Al Fahm isn't part of it, it will only be to appease liberal Jewish Israelis (not Arab Israelis) who dislike the idea of an ethnostate and get warm fuzzies at the though of any non-Jew living in Israel.

 

I don't understand your distinction between Jewish nationalism in America and Palestinian nationalism in Israel. Yes, obviously a traditionally Zionist superpower like America has different political contours than a small ethnostate like Israel. But the only reason I can fathom that you would assert that it's totally legitimate for US Jews to wrap themselves in Israeli flags but not for for Palestinian Israelis to wrap themselves in Palestinian flags is that you like Jewish nationalism much more than you like Palestinian nationalism. The point is that you should be able to wave an Israeli flag and keep your US citizenship. And you should be able to wave your Palestinian flag and keep your Arab citizenship.

Your view of patriotism is also particularly odd. The Arab Israelis demanding Israel abide by its founding principles and constitutional commitments to equality and democracy seem to me far more patriotic than the right wing zealots advocating ethnic cleansing and suppression of non-Jewish minorities. The nation state law is atrocious not because it cements in law a historical "implicit understanding" of Jewish political supremacy but precisely the opposite--that Jewish leaders have always told Arabs that they are equal citizens who's identity is no more or less important in a democratic state like Israel and the nation state law says exactly the opposite.

So celebrating the citizenship and identity of non-Jews in Israel is not just about giving liberals a thrill. It is about fidelity to the values and pluralistic identity of the state itself.  The mythical Jewish monolith you imagine (desire?) to be is obviously not my Israel and more importantly it isn't the real Israel.  It wasn't made to be that, and with over a quarter of the population consisting of non-Jews it isn't that today, either.

Tossing Umm al Fahm to Palestine because its residents are brown Arabs who don't clutch the Israeli flag as dogmatically and absurdly as certain American Jews and Israeli right wingers is every bit as racist and bigoted as it seems.

Lol that’s some WACK false equivalence

Is it bigoted if I said Fermanagh should go to the Republic of Ireland because the majority of people in that county are Catholic, ethnically Irish, Sinn Fein voting Republicans? That’s a legitimate political debate, and actually what the majority want.

The Palestinian flag is a negation of Israeli nationalism. The Israeli flag is not a negation of American nationalism.

If there's one thing Palestinians understand really, really well it's negation of national identity and peoplehood.

[Walmart_shopper]

Moving away from this discussion for a moment, it seems as if Likud has had a respectable media cycle this last week. They are gaining in the polls, usually pulling from minors. Now, there are a variety of potential reasons for this: Peace Plan juicing the Right wing, a potential rally-around-the-flag after Bibi's sentence, or perhaps just small party infighting within the settler parties. No matter the reason, Likud has gained in this moment.

No, to the contrary, this was supposed to be the gamechanging week for the Likud. And polls are in almost total agreement that AT MOST they picked up a single seat. It was, as you say, a relatively good news week for Netanyahu, but the indictment pretty much negated whatever momentum he found and, in any case, the cake is mostly baked in terms of support. I have to imagine that the Likud strategists are in a panic of sorts realizing that the week in which they threw the kitchen sink barely moved the needke at all. There are only a couple mandates out there that will bobble around over the next month. The only real question is, of course, turnout.

I just think people are done with Netanyahu and the only question is how to piece together a government without him. Support for him on the right just isn't strong enough to net a majority.

[Walmart_shopper]

98
Who am I saying should disappear? I'm saying majority Palestinian cities should be in a future Palestinian state.

What state? There is only one state there and it's called Israel. Said state accepts all the Jews living there and abroad, but only a part of the Palestinian locals. There is not going to be a ''future Palestinian state'' worthy of that name. At best the Israelis are only willing to allow a bantustan-like entity, without territorial consistency or economic viability. There are two kind of Palestinians: citizens and non-citizens. It's better to be a discriminated minority in a viable state, even if that state does not recognize your national identity. Who is stupid enough to accept the transfer to a bantustan state? I understand some posters here are racist and don't like the Palestinians, but don t pretend to disguise your racism with that rubbish. There is no ''two state solution'', face it.

This is actually a very good argument for why an Israeli Arab would rather be a citizen of Israel than a citizen of Palestine.

However, it conflicts with what all the left-wing Israelis here are saying. They're saying the Arabs should remain Israeli because they actually love Israel. You're saying they should remain Israeli so they can extract more resources from the Israeli government

and while that would be a completely logical thing for Arabs to do, it would also be completely logical for Israel Jews not to want to let Arabs do that, so that would explain why they want to get rid of these Arab populated bits of their country.

love Israel? the country isn't your mom to love like that. most (sane) Jews don't love the "State of Israel".

The argument usually follows on several points:
- contrary to what some think, polling among Israeli Arabs show that no more than third at best  identify as Israelis. 70 years of Israeli rule as also altered them different from the Palestinians with many cultural differences
- no one asked the residents what they want, citizenship is an individual right no up to collective bargaining. the PA has no mandate to discuss or agree anything above their heads
- this transfer of citizens has a very problematic constitutional saying, it tells any other Arab resident of Israel that he's merely a citizen contingently
- Lastly, the Arab residents of such towns did settle there illegally, they cannot be compared to Jewish settlers in the West Bank as a quid for quo 

It's a really just a variant of the comical "Murica: love it er leave it" meme. The idea that only unquestioning fealty to your country's political  leadership is worthy of citizenship is among the most terrifying and dangerous ever.

[Walmart_shopper]

New Maagar poll:

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [11] Labor-Gesher-Meretz (A.Peretz)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
09 [07] Yamina (Bennett)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)

So after all that song and dance Likud are still predicted to lose seats? That’s rich if so.

As I said, the peace plan rollout ended up worse for Netanyahu than for Gantz. Gantz's pandering to the right was craven, of course, but it helped insulate him from the Trump bomb going off under the right wing. It's so much better politically for Netanyahu to stand up and declare that he will never allow a Palestinian state than it is for him to have to embrace a plan that creates a (albeit emaciated) Palestinian state. And now that so-called "allies" in the Arab world and even the US are pumping the brakes on Israel's implementation of the deal, now everyone can see that the emperor really has no clothes.

Gantz's mistake was trying to get in front of the story instead of just letting the disaster unfold on Netanyahu. That's what political novices do, though. They freak out about any given news cycle and flail rather than just letting things straighten out and staying on a winning message. Gantz only needed to just thank Trump for his support and offer to consider the plan in depth once his government is seated. Now he wears the farce of a century around his neck and he's alienated the Joint List. The more time we spend on a Palestinian state is the less time we spend talking about Defendant Netanyahu's march to prison, which is how Gantz will win the election.

As hnv said, Gantz's political advisors appear to be lost out in the Negev right now. Thankfully the Netanyahu is in absolute political disarray right now and he's bringing the right wing down with him.

[Walmart_shopper]

New Maagar poll:

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [11] Labor-Gesher-Meretz (A.Peretz)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
09 [07] Yamina (Bennett)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)

So after all that song and dance Likud are still predicted to lose seats? That’s rich if so.

As I said, the peace plan rollout ended up worse for Netanyahu than for Gantz. Gantz's pandering to the right was craven, of course, but it helped insulate him from the Trump bomb going off under the right wing. It's so much better politically for Netanyahu to stand up and declare that he will never allow a Palestinian state than it is for him to have to embrace a plan that creates a (albeit emaciated) Palestinian state. And now that so-called "allies" in the Arab world and even the US are pumping the brakes on Israel's implementation of the deal, now everyone can see that the emperor really has no clothes.

Gantz's mistake was trying to get in front of the story instead of just letting the disaster unfold on Netanyahu. That's what political novices do, though. They freak out about any given news cycle and flail rather than just letting things straighten out and staying on a winning message. Gantz only needed to just thank Trump for his support and offer to consider the plan in depth once his government is seated. Now he wears the farce of a century around his neck and he's alienated the Joint List. The more time we spend on a Palestinian state is the less time we spend talking about Defendant Netanyahu's march to prison, which is how Gantz will win the election.

As hnv said, Gantz's political advisors appear to be lost out in the Negev right now. Thankfully the Netanyahu is in absolute political disarray right now and he's bringing the right wing down with him.

So do you think Netivot, Ofakim, Beersheva etc. will distance themselves from Likud, especially after the plan to expand Gaza?

It's a good question. Everyone believes that Bibi has coddled Hamas and has effectively shrugged at the missiles constantly launched from Gaza, and yet Sderot and other communities won't budge from the Likud. So I doubt it matters.

But, honestly, I just don't think most people are taking the Trump deal seriously enough for it to make a rwal electoral difference. The Palestinians would never accept a nonsense proposal like that and so the deal comes down to little more than US diplomatic cover for annexation and effective apartheid. And such a unilateral move is virtually impossible even with US cover, so at the end of the day it just amounts to a bunch of hot air designed to help Netanyahu. But the right can just do nothing and get backdoor annexation without the possibility of a Palestinian state and the Palestinians can just wait until the occupation self- implodes and a binational state becomes a reality. Why would either accept the deal? The Trump plan isn't really good for anyone but Bibi, and as we see it isn't even good for him. Thus everyone shrugs and the electoral needle hardly moves at all (or even backfires on Neranyahu).

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1227954544279248896

Doesn't change the fact that they still would need outside support from The Joint List to govern according to polls.

Yes, and it's Liberman so take what he says for what it's worth.

[Walmart_shopper]

Netanyahu announced former Jerusalem Mayor, MK Nir Barkat, as his future Finance Minister as part of the new attempt to appeal to liberals. Doesn't seem like it helped in the polls.

Literally nothing Netanyahu (and Trump) have done over the course of the campaign have moved the needle. That's hilarious. But I also get the sense that it's not quite right. It's a small polling error away from a massive shift between the blocs. The way the parties (and especially Liberman, who now praises) Labor-Meretz) are talking the sense is that Gantz is aiming straight ahead for a center-left minority coalition, and that that is the likeliest outcome. But the Bibi bloc is only a handful of seats away from a majority, and if enough people in the Center (of the country, not the political spectrum) just shrug at Gantz and stay home, or if the Arabs do so, then maybe Bibi pulls it out.

For what it's worth--which is admittedly not much--I stand by my campaign-long prediction that the polls, though showing Gantz and the left only 3 to 4 seats away from a majority, are almost certainly overestimating right wing turnout and that the left should get at least 60 seats. Bibi is toxic to all but the diehard Likudniks and Haredim, and he is being flanked left and right by growing discontent at his sclerotic influence in government. The polls do not capture this. Indeed they arguably cannot, since the selection bias inherent in polling can fail to capture a major drop (or uptick) in turnout. The polls failed to catch the solid Arab turnout in September. I think they probably are failing to capture the drop in right wing turnout in March.

On the other hand, Hamas is perhaps Bibi's most devoted political ally, and one cannot dismiss the possibility of Netanyahu looking at ugly internals trying to actually start a war.  He has certainly been talking up the possibility lately.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud are working on base turnout. My partner was a Likud members for years and she’s been getting more texts and calls then ever. They also have an app that take information from cellphone to target family and friends of those with the app

If Arab turnout will decrease by 5% and Likud/shas demographics by 2-3% we might see a very narrow right wing majority

Of course Likud is working on base turnout. Just as they have done for the last 5 elections. The problem is that the party is a led by the political equivalent of a rotting carcas and that hardly inspires people to vote for you. Unless the Arab vote drops a solid 10 points (to a historically low 50%ish) and Likud turnout skyrockets and Tel Aviv turnout stays typically low, there aren't enough voters to get to 61 for the right wing. And while those three things are theoretically possible, them happening all at once are far down the list of likely possibilitiea. More likely is a significant drop in right wing turnout and the Arab and left wing vote staying the same. That alone would give Gantz close to 60 seats. If instead of staying home those right wingers voted for Blur and White, watch out.

[Walmart_shopper]

Joint List has put big flashy billboards in Yiddish in Bnei Barak ("Your voice against forced enlistment') and in Amharic in Petah Tikvah ("Your voice against police harrassment"). I'm pretty sure these are more about getting the votes of ex-Meretz voters than Chassidish or Ethiopian voters, but I'm interested to know what the Israeli posters here think of it. Have y'all noticed an increased interest in the Joint List among Jewish  folks? Do you think this multi-lingual campaigning will pay off short term (more votes) or long term (building a base, expanding Hadash's reach?)...

It's definitely a long-term strategy. There is actually a surprising amount of warmth between the Haredi parties and the Joint List, and a decent amount of ideological compatability, too. I doubt it will help much this time, but it's a beautiful strategy for the long term.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

It's not as dumb as it sounds, honestly. Netanyahu's government has invested a massive amount in the Arab sector and helped oversee Arabs becoming Israel's new yuppies. He deserves far more credit than he gets for that.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

Lol Arab48?

Arabs are far less obsessed with the occupation than Jews want them to be. The reason the Joint List did so well in September was that they recalibrated their campaign around pocketbook issues, building permits and sectoral development, and curbing violence. That resonates with Arab voters, who frankly think  failing schools and unsafe streets are a bigger problem than geopolitical dumpster fires like the conflict. Bibi has always recognized this and has invested resources accordingly. He won't get a lot of Arab votes, but even stealing a single mandate away is a big deal.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

Lol Arab48?

Panet

I think Panet might be about the size of Ynet and Walla, in terms of traffic.

[Walmart_shopper]

A couple polls showing Likud leading KL came out today. I literally can't imagine Netanyahu as my PM for more than a year or so.

But the blocks didn't shift. Netanyahu has absolutely no path to a majority. Either Liberman and KL give up their "Jewish majority" fantasy or we'll have a fourth election. The latter has apparently already been penciled in by electoral commission officials for September.

I actually love that the left is eating into Gantz righr now. After a campaign of LARPing as Likudniks I only wonder why only now KL is getting weaker. Hopefully the Joint List gets 15 mandates and Gantz is forced to rely on Arab support for a majority.

[Walmart_shopper]

A couple polls showing Likud leading KL came out today. I literally can't imagine Netanyahu as my PM for more than a year or so.

Wait, someone other than Direct Polls (consistent outlier) shows Likud ahead?

Channel 12 and Channel 11 both show Likud leading by one mandate.

[Walmart_shopper]

Channel 13 out with a new poll in which Likud leads by a single mandate. Labor-Meretz is eating into Blue and White right now. So the blocs aren't really shifting, but left wing voters are leaving Gantz for smaller parties. I wonder how much panic Blue and White is feeling right now. They are dropping like a rock, but to their allies on the left. So it makes it even MORE likely that the only path to power is a leftist government with Arab and Liberman support. Hilariously, that's precisely what Gantz and friends have tried so hard to avoid.

The real question remains turnout, of course. One major pollster sees the Arab turnout very close to September's election, which was good but not explosive. The Jewish vote dropped in September. If the Jewish vote drops again the Joint List could get 15 seats if the Arab sector really makes a show of political power and shows up. Depending on where turnout among Jews drops most that could dramatically alter the math for Blue and White, even if they finish behind Likud in terms of mandates.

[Walmart_shopper]

There has been some suggestion that KL's drop may he due to the announcement of a criminal investigation opening on Gantz's old company (though Gantz is not suspected of wrongdoing). He basically got James Comey-ed this week. But that hasn't pushed anti-Bibi voters to Bibi. They've just moved to Meretz-Labor.

My hunch is that it's a small poll divot for Gantz but with the rockets from Gaza and undecideds coming home I suspect KL will quickly recover and they and the Likud will be basically tied through the weekend. The left will likely go into election day with 57-58 seats in the final polls (compared to 56 for the religious right), and turnout will determine whether Gantz gets the votes to dump Bibi or whether we'll go to a fourth election will the PM on trial.

[Walmart_shopper]

Another day, another poll showing Likud up by one. But the left still leads by one mandate.

Honestly, the herding of the polls really freaks me out. It just feels like something is being missed by the polls. I just don't know what it is. I know that the Joint List is very hopeful for their performance, but that obviously depends on Arab and relative Jewish turnout, which I doubt anyone really knows. Otzmah is polling well below the threshold right now, so there isn't the chance of the late right wing surge we saw in polls last time. It's good to keep in mind that in September the polls showed the race tied between Blue and White and Likud with the right getting 59-60 mandates and Otzma getting over the threshold in half of the polls . Today the top two parties are still basically even, but the right wing only gets 56-57 in polls. If polls once again are underestimating the left then Gantz may be closer to 61 than it seems. Of course that also means Bibi's bloc may be closer to a majority than polls show, too. In the previous two elections the right wing has underperformed the polling by 2 or 3 mandates. So we'll see what happens on Monday.

[Walmart_shopper]

Channel 13 out with a new poll in which Likud leads by a single mandate. Labor-Meretz is eating into Blue and White right now. So the blocs aren't really shifting, but left wing voters are leaving Gantz for smaller parties. I wonder how much panic Blue and White is feeling right now. They are dropping like a rock, but to their allies on the left. So it makes it even MORE likely that the only path to power is a leftist government with Arab and Liberman support. Hilariously, that's precisely what Gantz and friends have tried so hard to avoid.

The real question remains turnout, of course. One major pollster sees the Arab turnout very close to September's election, which was good but not explosive. The Jewish vote dropped in September. If the Jewish vote drops again the Joint List could get 15 seats if the Arab sector really makes a show of political power and shows up. Depending on where turnout among Jews drops most that could dramatically alter the math for Blue and White, even if they finish behind Likud in terms of mandates.

Not particularly 'leftist' but I can see a B&W/Labor-Gesher/Meretz/YB coalition with Hadash/Ta'al/Ra'am as confidence and supply.

At this point it looks like the Arab parties would have a much bigger problem with that than Liberman. But I suspect something like that is basically what Gantz, Peretz, and Liberman are shooting for right now (Liberman can justify his capitulation on entering an Arab-supported minority government, his rejection of which caused the third election, by arguing that anything is better than a fourth electio, and that the Arabs aren't technically part of the government and blah blah blah). There is always talk about Bennet and Shaked or part of Likud or even the Haredim suddenly ditching Bibi when they see his trial start in 3 weeks. But I think everyone recognizes that that is highly unlikely to happen. Inside KL they've been hoping for KL+Labor/Meretz+YB to get more seats than the religious right and just form a minority government with the Joint List simply abstaining on any confidence motion. But right now that only is getting at most 52 seats (compared to 55-57 for the right), so the likelihood of that happening is about the same as the left getting a majority on its own without Liberman. Which is to say that it would take a decent though not unimagineable polling error to pick up those extra four mandates.

I do think it's more likely that the left slips over 60 mandates than the right doing so, but especially with KL falling in the polls I think that is still not hugely likely to happen. If the Joint List and Liberman can't play nicely then I don't see how a fourth election can be avoided.