Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

There hasn't been a new poll in 11 days, is this weird?

Not during the holiday period. You get low response rates this time of year since everyone is with family, even if it is for non-religious reasons. It would be impossible to get a good Christian sample, and you Jewish total is probably going to require more work depending on how many really care about Hanukkah. Throw in employees using vacation time and you get a situation where pollsters/market researchers hate entering the feild in the back half of December.

To be fair, the five Christian responses are not likely to swing any poll, but it's nice in a gingerbread-and-hot-cocoa-decking-the-halls kind of holiday way to hear you ascribe to us such significance. The incarnation is, somehow, still a kind of below-the-fold news item in Israel, despite it happening like 40 minutes from where I live and changing the whole of human history. But, alas. You're right that Jews (and Muslims, some of whom celebrate Christmas) do take time off since many schools are closed. But the poll void is still weird especially since Likud just had a major leadership election in the middle of Hanukah.

I just assumed that media outlets simply didn't have room in their budgets for pricey polling after two elections in less than a year. I wouldn't br surprised if the polling this time is not only sparse but also epicly bad.

[Walmart_shopper]

Netanyahu is asking for immunity from indictment which the Knesset needs to vote on. Lieberman announces he’s against and will support forming the house committee even before the next election to vote against the request. The ball is now in the speaker’s lap and he needs to approve the vote.

Bibi is desperate, delaying the trial with a heavy electoral cost

The irony is that Bibi is reduced to putting his entire personal and political future in voters' hands under the assumption that those voters are more sympathetic than the entire institutional democratic apparatus he has sworn over and over again to upholf and protect. And yet it is precisely those voters who will deliver Netanyahu a withering blow that could utterly undo the right wing projects he has championed.

Thanks, Bibi.

[Walmart_shopper]

If (very big if) this is the case, the right realistically has 3 parties at risk of missing the threshold (New Right, NU and Jewish Home). The left has 2 (DU and Green Party), so they're at an advantage in this scenario.

I don't see much of an ideological difference between JH and NU anyways.

There's no chance of NU running alone, but Smotrich is threatening to join with the New Right.

True, but seeing the religious right splintering like this is delicious because it will make it even likelier that someone fails to pass the threshold. The religious Zionist parties are the biggest underperformers in the world, and the small, insular world of religious Zionism ensures that voters WILL take all of this infighting seriously, and probably seriously enough that one party at least falls short of the threshold.

[Walmart_shopper]

If (very big if) this is the case, the right realistically has 3 parties at risk of missing the threshold (New Right, NU and Jewish Home). The left has 2 (DU and Green Party), so they're at an advantage in this scenario.

I don't see much of an ideological difference between JH and NU anyways.

There's no chance of NU running alone, but Smotrich is threatening to join with the New Right.

True, but seeing the religious right splintering like this is delicious because it will make it even likelier that someone fails to pass the threshold. The religious Zionist parties are the biggest underperformers in the world, and the small, insular world of religious Zionism ensures that voters WILL take all of this infighting seriously, and probably seriously enough that one party at least falls short of the threshold.

Wasn't the purpose of HaYamin HeHadash to establish a right wing party that could appeal to those who didn’t want to vote for The Jewish Home because of Smotrich and co? I can see this backfiring.

Yes, that was the purpose, but I think that the relative failure of the New Right makes it clear that it did not succeed at all in attracting anyone beyond the hard/religious right and Shaked fanboys. Adding Smotrich to the list will simply make New Right a parallel hard right alternative to Rafi Peretz's Jewish Home-Kahanist frankenstein. One thing is clear, in March there will he absolutely not enough room for the Likud AND two hard right settler parties. I just don't know which of those two parties will lose out.

[Walmart_shopper]

Stav Shaffir needs to act fast if she wants to remain MK. She has no support alone, even from people who like her, because she has no chance. As part of the DC, she does bring a lot of voters as the factor that tips the balance and makes it more than just Meretz.

Also, a hilarious-sad piece of new:
A party lead by Yigal Amir's wife Larisa has been approved to run next election. It doesn't express any explicit support of Rabin's murder so it was approved, but it's promoting "examining past convictions and supporting retrials".

While I don't blame Shaffir for fleeing the feckless Labor Party, I find her behavior to be totally incomprehensible lately. After the left wins a majority there will be plenty of time for grandstanding and football-spiking. But if these people aren't careful they are going to let Bibi hang onto power and put a final nail in the country's coffin. I really do like her and think she could certainly build something important in politics, but that probably requires playing along with one of the parties on the left and breaking out when she has more support.

[Walmart_shopper]

New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

[Walmart_shopper]

Amir Peretz suggested that KL, Labour-Gesher and Meretz run together on the same ticket. Absolutely ridiculous and disgraceful in that it'd gravely harm the chance to defeat Netanyahu, bury any remains of leftism in Israel and is especially cynical considering his arguments AGAINST uniting with Meretz.

Labor is just so awful. Obviously Blue and White and Meretz won't run together. Peretz is under a huge amount of pressure to merge with Meretz and this is a really silly gimmick to try to deflect some of that pressure away from himself.

 It's like trying to get my kids to go to sleep at night. No, habibti, you may not tell me about what happened at school eight weeks ago for the 23rd time tonight. I don't care. Go to bed.

[Walmart_shopper]

Some gems from Education Minister Rafi Peretz in an interview published this weekend:
Asked what if his children had a different sexual orientation: "Thank God, my children grew up in a normative and healthy manner, and build their homes in a Jewish manner... A normative family is a man and a woman and it should be kept that way."

About Kahanist Ben Gvir: "He came a long way, he's not really a Kahanist at this point but a legitimate partner." (reminder that Ben Gvir constantly praises Kahana and has a picture of mass-murderer Baruch Goldstein adorning his wall)

About annexing the West Bank, whether the Palestinians will get an Israeli citizenship and be able to vote for the Knesset: "The Palestinians will be able to live a good life and vote in their municipal elections."

On Ayelet Shaked: "I really respect her... Her husband is an army pilot in the reserves, I know how it is when the husband is a pilot and goes off to train, it takes a great effort to preserve the home and I respect it."

On whether conversion therapy works: "It's a complicated question and requires a lot of discussion."

Nothing new, of course- our Education Minister is a rabidly homophobic Kahanism-apologizer Appartheid supporter. But I think this interview sums it up rather well.

Incredibly, the only thing that dati leumi voters would really resist here is maybe his openness to conversion therapy and his insensitivity on the question about gay kids. Everyone knows that Palestinians are sub-human and therefore don't deserve rights, but a gay Jew is, after all, a Jew.

[Walmart_shopper]

So the next week is going to be very eventful, possibly the most eventful week since the election was announced the things to watch:

1. At the beginning of the week, we'll probably see a flurry of activity in the Knesset as Kahol-Lavan and Yisrael Beiteinu vie to start the Knesset Committee to discuss Netanyahu's immunity request. The Knesset's legal counsel (who was under heavy attack by the right-wing machine this week) already said that there's nothing legally preventing such a committee. There are two scenarios here: either longtime Knesset Speaker Yuli Edlestein (Likud) vetoes it and likely gets replaced by MK Meir Cohen from KL (with Lieberman abstaining if I had to guess), or Edlestein is disarmed by the legal counsel and says he can't prevent the committee.

2. The end of the week will see the closing of the party lists, always a very eventful time. Two key questions:

a. What will happen to the right of Likud? According to Shaked, and following Bennet-Peretz and Bennet-Smotrich meetings, a Yamina-type union is definitely in the cards, but Bennet is apparently refusing to run with Otzma and Peretz is refusing to break the agreement he signed with Otzma, so hard to see how they get past this. So this means either a New Right-Jewish Home-National Union-Otzma list or the same without Otzma (basically Yamina). The other option is two parties to the right of Likud- one would have the New Right and one would have Jewish Home-Otzma, that's for sure, but it's unclear where Smotrich and the National Union stands. After Peretz signed an agreement with Otzma without consulting with him there's a deep rift between them, so this makes it hard. Three options there- either he doesn't run at all (unlikely), he runs with the New Right (apparently polls showed this to be successful as he's very personally popular in the religious zionist public, much more-so than Peretz, but doubt Bennet and Shaked would go for it) or he runs with the Jewish Home-Otzma in a similar build as the URWP from April (but with Ben Gvir third). Apparently Shaked is pressuring Bennet to run with Otzma, but he fears it'll scare off liberal right-wing voters (and shows his political stupidity, because relying on the liberal right got him below the threshold already). Who would lead a united list? In his interview Peretz said that a religious list should be lead by a religious person, so I'd guess Bennet would lead, followed by Peretz, Smotrich, Shaked and finally Ben-Gvir.

b. What about the left? They have less factions that can shift but are just as messy as the right. Apparently Labour is considering a last-minute merger with Meretz, presumably Orly Levy and Gesher would follow but probably not happily. So it's either going to be a united left list or Labour-Gesher and the Democartic Camp, similar to September. Unclear what will happen with Shaffir- if the parties run separately I guess she'd find a place in the Democratic Camp, but Labour could demand that she be kept out of a united list (or she could be placed low). Either way she's become the punching bag of the left. Amir Peretz would definitely lead a united list. Apparently, even KL tried to push for this union, promising Peretz favourable government negotiation terms and even support in the race for the Presidency.

c. Some more minor questions: Meretz were apparently looking for an Arab figure to put second on their list, what's up with that? Will Kahol-Lavan make any changes to their list, possibly including more women in the top 10? Any other changes to parties like the New Right, Shas or Yisrael Beiteinu?

It sounds like the immunity request will be considered (and almost certainly denied) because Edelstein is too smart and too ambitious to commit suppuku for a doomed Netanyahu by holding the Knesset hostage. That will pretty much ensure that immunity is dead no matter what happens in March.

The political fallout is incredibly complicated, though. Do leftists who are not enamored with hawkish Blue and White stay home knowing that Netanyahu is going to jail no matter what? Does the Bibi-ist right stay home knowing there's nothing left for Bibi--or do they come out in force to protest the legal establishment?

My guess is that not much will actually change in the overall analysis. The left will still be on the cusp of a majority but mercurial Liberman and the threshold battles of smaller parties makes the range of possible outcomes anything from a Liberman-right wing alliance to a left wing majority or minority government. While I definitely suspect the latter, it's a pretty murky picture and the political turmoil in this country is rather depressing.

[Walmart_shopper]

The immunity process is not going to end before the election and then it will have to start over

I actually think that is not correct. Once a Knesset special committee denies a request for immunity not only is the immunity process self-evidently over but it cannot be revived with a new Knesset, either.

[Walmart_shopper]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

[Walmart_shopper]

Labour-Gesher-Meretz union official. Looks like the top 5 will be this:
1. Peretz
2. Levy
3. Horovitz
4. Zandberg
5. Shmuli

I have no idea why they're clinging so toghtly to Orly Levy. She isn't very good at politics and would definitely fit in better with Blue and White, which I imagine would be willing to offer her two seats (maybe #25 and #37?). She is taking up such a prominent position as a right winger on a left wing list. Is this Peretz trying to be edgy?

[Walmart_shopper]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

I'll take that bet. But your prediction is awfully close to mine. I just think the extra Meretz sear will get them close to a left wing majority and one more (so 9) will get them 61. I think they'll get 8. It's just the ninth that I'm uncertain about.

[Walmart_shopper]

Labour-Gesher-Meretz union official. Looks like the top 5 will be this:
1. Peretz
2. Levy
3. Horovitz
4. Zandberg
5. Shmuli

6. Michaeli
7. Golan
8. Gilon
9. Bar Lev
10. Suede
11. Freg


Poor Freg, I thought pushing Shaffir down was to make room for him...oh it was a spin.

I hope they get 7 seats

Freg is apparently angry now that he's outside the top 10 and is demanding for Golan's reserved spot to be cancelled. What a power-hungry, useless politician. He thinks he speaks for all Arabs for some reason and uses it to backstab other people left and right (mostly left )

I want them to get 10 seats so that Bar Lev and Swid can be in. But looking at this list makes me realize how bad Meretz is- aside from Horovitz I don't really like any of them.

Of course Freij is angry. Meretz literally only survived as a party thanks to Arab support and now they're banishing their token Arab member to make room for token right wingers who would be so much better off in Blue and White anyway. Now that supporting the Joint List is increasingly fashionable, Meretz is clearly missing the political wave. But, that being said, with this merger it virtually guarantees that right wing bloc can't get 61 seats without Liberman.

The problem is that Liberman is unreliable.  Labor-Gesher has an interesting tightrope here. They want to siphon off Liberman voters by highlighting Orly Levy, but they don't want to antogonize Liberman enough to push him into Bibi's arms. All I can say is if Gantz and Orlt Levy can steal a few of his seats the left will probably get a majority. But no poll has shoen the left doing that so far.

[Walmart_shopper]

Former Zehut incels are now running in 2 different micro parties. The New Liberal Party & Liberal and economic strength party. The latter more edgy with some weed activist currently in jail as number 2.

Both will take 10-20K votes from the right mostly.

While we’re at it can we add another Atlas color for Liberals who dislike libertarians?

I've heard about the latter, lead by Gilad Alper (Zehut #2 so pretty prominent in libertarian circles). What about the New Liberals? Haven't heard of them.

Also, I'm compelled to be edgy and say the D avatar is for you, but we need to keep some ORDER among the Israeli posters (hint hint Danny go R! hint)

The new Liberals are led by Libby Molad who was number 3 Zehut with the rest of the Zehut crew. Oh and the support of Prof. Omer Moav. They’re more “serious”

How is a JL voter who dislikes Marxism a D? Maybe I should go O? Existential crisis here

My politics are way weirder than yours, so I just stick with my indy avatar.

[Walmart_shopper]

Former Zehut incels are now running in 2 different micro parties. The New Liberal Party & Liberal and economic strength party. The latter more edgy with some weed activist currently in jail as number 2.

Both will take 10-20K votes from the right mostly.

While we’re at it can we add another Atlas color for Liberals who dislike libertarians?

I've heard about the latter, lead by Gilad Alper (Zehut #2 so pretty prominent in libertarian circles). What about the New Liberals? Haven't heard of them.

Also, I'm compelled to be edgy and say the D avatar is for you, but we need to keep some ORDER among the Israeli posters (hint hint Danny go R! hint)

The new Liberals are led by Libby Molad who was number 3 Zehut with the rest of the Zehut crew. Oh and the support of Prof. Omer Moav. They’re more “serious”

How is a JL voter who dislikes Marxism a D? Maybe I should go O? Existential crisis here

My politics are way weirder than yours, so I just stick with my indy avatar.

Why do you support Joint List instead of something more mainstream like Meretz or Labor?

Because those parties are fixated on Jewish cultural issues like lgbt rights, the rabbinate, etc. (reflecting the unbearably narrow and insular lives of their supporters) while the Joint List is interested in totally reorienting Israeli society away from its ethnocentric way of operating. In other words, Meretz and to a lesser extent Labor want to recast Israel as a Jewish state in their own image (progressive, liberal, democratic, etc.). They want to maintain Jewish cultural and political supremacy, but the liberal, atheistic kind rather than the messianic, xenophobic kind championed by the right. To be clear, leftist Jewish ethnocentrism is much, much better than right wing Jewish ethnocentrism. But the Joint List is courageous enough to go farther than either and wants to recast Israel as the multi-ethnic, pluralistic, shared reality that it is.

[Walmart_shopper]

Direct Polls Poll 14/01/2019

Blue & White - 34
Likud - 32
Joint List - 13
Labor-Gesher-Meretz - 10
Yisrael Beiteinu - 8
United Torah Judaism - 8
Shas - 8
New Right-National Union - 7
--------------------------------
United Jewish Home - 2.4%
Green Party - 2.3%

Left of center bloc - 57
Right of center bloc - 55
Yisrael Beiteinu - 8

Source: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/274560

Oh wow that's high. In the real world it's probably lower but good to see Shaffir has some support. She won't run unless she actually passes the threshold, but I think it's safe to say that if we had a 2 Seat threshold like we used to, we could very well have our first Green Party entering the Knesset independently.

While I don't think Jewish Home will clear the threshold, I also don't think that Shaffir on her own will nearly top their vote total. If she were really bringing two mandatea by herself the left and/or Blue and White would in reality be scooping her up in an instant.

[Walmart_shopper]

Gadi ybarkan may defect from B&W to Likud for the promise of the 20th spot. Likud lost some Ethiopian voters to B&W in September and desperate Bibi is trying to turn the tide.

This defection is straight of the late 80's, Ybarkan called likue a party without value and said Ethiopians can't be baught less than a month ago.

That seems like a dumb move. Hopefully it's just rumours.
Edit: Gantz removed him from the list. Big mistake imo, he was a sympathetic figure and KL's vote share with Ethiopians grew substantially last time.

I think the Ethiopian vote was more about disgust with the government than a random Ethiopian on the KL list.

[Walmart_shopper]

Gadi ybarkan may defect from B&W to Likud for the promise of the 20th spot. Likud lost some Ethiopian voters to B&W in September and desperate Bibi is trying to turn the tide.

This defection is straight of the late 80's, Ybarkan called likue a party without value and said Ethiopians can't be baught less than a month ago.

That seems like a dumb move. Hopefully it's just rumours.
Edit: Gantz removed him from the list. Big mistake imo, he was a sympathetic figure and KL's vote share with Ethiopians grew substantially last time.

Tamano-Shato is a bigger figure with Ethiopians and I assume some like Shlomo Mola\Avi Yalau will be placed instead of him by tonight

Avi Yalau would be an excellent choice.

Looks like this is bust: they put Attorney Michal Cotler, daughter of the former Canadian Minister of Justice Irwin Cotler, in Ybarkan's place.

This is really a gross move from Ybarkan. He criticized Bibi a lot and says he doesn't care about anything but himself, so looks like by joining him, Ybarkan is telling us he doesn't care about the country either. I remember that time Miri Regev said Ybarkan doesn't represent the characteristics of the Ethiopians such as "gratitude" because he criticized Bibi. So looks like he also doesn't mind helping racists. This also makes me doubt the integrity and honesty of the opposition to Netanyahu from any of these people in KL. Probably the reminder I needed to become a safe Labour-Gesher-Meretz voter.

Bibi couldn't peel a single MK from KL after either 2019 election--and he surely offered them keys to the kingdom. While KL is obviously a diverse constellation of ideologies, they are loyal and thus far trustworthy. Ybarkan's move is laughably stupid because he is leaving the next governing party for the next party of opposition. So he's bad at politics as well as morally incoherent. Obviously he belongs with Bibi.

[Walmart_shopper]

Peretz betrayed Ben Gvir. Otzma running alone. The religious right led by Bennet, but I actually think it was a bad move for the bloc

Speaking of Otzma where’s David? He was out far-right representative here and vanished

Yeah, I mean, it obviously saves BY from the likely outcome of missing the threshold, which is I'm sure why Peretz did it. But it basically casts two Otzmah mandates off, weakens the right bloc, etc.

[Walmart_shopper]

It's official: Bennet-Peretz-Smotrich-Shaked running together. Beb Gvir running alone. Expect some negativity between Otzma and the rest of the right.

I doubt Bibi will try to drag Otzmah over the threshold like last time. They'll probably try to bury them early, which may massively blow up in their faces.

[Walmart_shopper]

Peretz's collection of failed moves led to Jewish Home being the weakest part of the union with just one realistic spot on the combined list.

Which means basically the death of Mafdal.

The Labour-Meretz list have Ruth Dayan (aged 102) the wife of, and Yael Dayan (the daughter of) in places 107-108. one represents Meretz the other Labour. The also have Yossi Beilin from Meretz and his son Gil from Labour. this is truly a family reunion. I was mainly shocked Ruth was still alive

Labor has a list up to 120, that's news to me.

Dream big.

Seriously, though. Imagine being no. 100 on the list of a party that is reaching hard to get 9 or 10 seats. Should you be honored or offended about being there?

[Walmart_shopper]

Gantz should sack his political advisor. Scored an own goal yesterday. Instead of waging a campaign on bibi and his immunity he allowed him to reframe the debate on his comfort zone. Absolutely rubbish

It's pretty amazing to watch, honestly. I think the cake is baked well enough that very little at this point will help the right wing, but Blue and White can and seems to be trying to do all it can to turn a potentially large victory into a merely modest one.

In the last campaign Blue and White gave the messaging reigns to Lapid and the secularist emphasis that was and is a political winner. The result was, of course, a "win" for the left. This time the emphasis seems to be on taking Bibi away from the reigns of power but leaving Bibi-ism ostensibly in place, which is the dumbest and most civically irresponsible message ever. They are clearly trying to pick off a few mandates from the Saar-ite left flank of Likud, but if they end up suppressing turnout among hesitant centrists and leftists they'll regret it. In a likely low turnout election like this the left may very well win by overwhelming right wing fatigue with intensity, high turnout, and enthusiasm on the left. And there is Gantz literally chasing Bibi on major policy point after policy point to demonstrate that they aren't so different after all. Unbearably weak abd stupid, this stuff.

[Walmart_shopper]

Anyway, both Bibi and Gantz are going to washington to discuss the 'peace plan,' a sign that expectations may be changing. Said  discussion is happening on the  same day of as the  vote for a knesset inquiry into Bibi though.

Gantz may reject the invitation, because of course he should. It seems pretty clearly a political move designed to carefully underline Trump's support for Netanyahu. Even Liberman said that he finds the timing of everything suspect. It makes no sense for the incoming prime minister of Israel to chase the outgoing prime minister around like a hapless apprentice or even toady. Neither Donald Trump nor Bibi Netanyahu get to determine Israel's foreign policy future because neither are the incoming  prime minister of the state of Israel.

Speaking of which, the comically bad "peace" plan is basically a triggering mechanism designed to give diplomatic cover to Bibi's right wing annexationist plans (which given the waning of Netanyahu's star makes the timing of the plan even more absurd and plainly political). The Paleatinians will reject their own political annhilation, Bibi will (if he wins) annex (the apocalyptic theocrats on the right hope) to kingdom come, and the Trump administration will shrug because "hey we tried." But all of this is predicated on unlikely political events (Trump and Bibi winning this year) that makes Gantz's running off to Washington even more bizarre. So let's hope he shrugs Trump off.

[Walmart_shopper]

Netanyahu just forfeited his immunity. going straight to trial

Bye felicia.