Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

Opening a betting category: which parties run a "we could be erased!" gevalt campaign tomorrow?

My bet: Labour-Gesher-Meretz will find a way, and Yamina as well. I'd actually say that Lieberman is more at risk than either, but gevalt campaigns aren't his style.

Not in the way you described it but Yamina, 100%.

Imagine if they got like 6 seats or something?

I doubt they'll get more than 6 or 7. Same with Liberman.

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm kind of torn. My gut says that tomorrow night will be something of a stunner. That Arab turnout will be phenomenal, and that the Joint List will even merit a noticeable bump in Jewish support. That right wing voters will he disproportionately likely to stay home. That Nathan Ethel's admission that hate is what binds the right wing will be something of moment of self-realization for tens of thousands of Israelis who decide that they will no longer sacrifice the future and cohesion of the country to serve the interests of Haredi rabbis and one man under indictment. That the country is not Bibi and his lamentable band sycophants who prop him up at our loss and their own gain, but that for better or worse the country is all of us. It is Jews and Arabs and religious and secular and Russians and Mizrahim and blacks and whites and Christians and Buddhists and Haredim and Muslims. Israel is the Holocaust survivor having her groceries rung up by a child of the Nakba at a Shufersol in Haifa. It is an Arab doctor saving a sick child from a settlement. It is a Russian Orthodox immigrant daringly trying falafel for the first time, and a childless yuppie in Tel Aviv teaching a classroom full of Sudanese refugees. It is us, and the divisive politics of the right threaten our very exiatence as such. And thus the Arab-left bloc will get 61 seats.

My head says that, after all, it's Israel, and nothing good ever comes from Nazareth (or anywhere else in our little country). That the right wing scare tactics are, to at least some extent, working, helping to siphon off votes from Liberman and KL. That an Arab/center-left majority is a fantasy that is unlikely to happen in a country captive to unthinking, superstitious traditionalism,  ethnic tribalism, apocalyptic religious fundamentalism, and a masochistic Masada complex that moves us all to self-ruin just to prove to the world that that it hates us, it really, really hates us.

But whatever. Here is my revised prediction.

Blue and White 35
Likud 34
Joint List 15
Labor-Meretz-Gesher 9
Shas 9
UTJ 7
Yisrael Beyteinu 6
Yamina 5

Center-left-Arab 59
Religious right 55

But the complete reverse wouldn't surprise me.

[Walmart_shopper]

So a recording came out of a known Rabbi promising Netanyahu to get dirt on Gantz out of the aforementioned advisor. Additionally, what SHOULD be the Israeli Watergate came out recently- a cyber company created right before the April election paid for spying on Gantz to get dirt of him, with the mediator being an attorney close to Netanyahu and others close to the PM involved.

It could hamper Likud's momentum right before election, but then again, it could change nothing too.

Likud voters don’t give two tosses on that, they know Bibi is a liar and a crook and that’s why they like him. They think this is part of the reasons is a diplomatic mastermind and whatever. You’re looking for decency where there is none

25% of Likud voters are Saar supporters who don't support Bibi. They are usually socially liberal, younger Ashkenazi voters. They could go three ways. They could stay home because they won't leave the Likud but they won'y support Bibi. They could vote for Bibi because, hey, it's better than the Arabs. Or they could actually cross over and suppoet Gantz. I don't think the last option is likely, because those voters hqve already crossed over by now. But if this keeps a single mandate worth of soft Likud voters from bothering to vote--and it might--that's a big deal.

[Walmart_shopper]

A couple of tidbuts...

The Likud seems to think that the last couple of weeks have been very good to them and that the momentum at their backs has carried through the weekend, leaving them maybe a single mandate shoet of a majority. Other rumors suggest that the Eshel tape really hurt the Likud, their momentum has stopped, and that KL is even possibly enjoying a late surge. The infuriating thing about this election is that both are totally plausible, and it's hard to tell who is bluffing.

Overseas voting is down 3 points from September, and about 10% from April. That is probably reflective of a broader trend we'll see this election.

Speaking of turnout, in September the early turnout reports suggested a big increase in turnout, which conventional wisdom suggests is usually very good for the Likud because their voters are usually the ones to stay home. In fact, the Likud votera DID stay home, and the big uptick we saw in turnout was entirely from the Arab sector. Analysts expect turnout among Arabs to further spike, so don't be surprised if turnout reports seem surprisingly good. It may not necessarily be a Bibi wave, though.

[Walmart_shopper]

In an hour or so we'll get a report of turnout as of 10am. In the meantime here you can determine the party with which your views most closely align:


https://electionsvote.mako.co.il

I got:

Joint List 90%
Meretz-Labor 85%
Blue and White 73%

Sounds about right.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout as of 10am was 14.5%. In September it was 15%, April it was 12.9%, and in 2015 it was 14.3%. So pretty average.

[Walmart_shopper]

98% LGM, 91% JL, 90% KL. Not surprising.

Anyway I have a really bad feeling, all anecdotal reports so far have been bad. I think almost certainly that the right will at the very least become bigger than the center left this time. Meanwhile, here's my case for why Netanyahu has to go and why I'm voting LGM:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=362330.msg7211556#new

The only thing worse than anecdotal reports are anecdotal reports before 10 in the morning. It is impossible to tell anything until actual turnout figures start to cone in from different places and the day goes on.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout as of 10am was 14.5%. In September it was 15%, April it was 12.9%, and in 2015 it was 13.5%. So pretty average.

Cheers!

Since we have nothing to do but wait, there's a question I always wanted to ask about Likud: how much coherence does it have as a party without Netanyahu as its leader? Are its supporters natural allies with one another ideologically? Does it have a web of internal institutions that help sustain it? Bibi's been the dominating personality in it for so long I've never really been able to tell how much there is (left) underneath him.

Traditionally the Likud is a big tent party, and goes from liberal and secular Ashkenazim to traditional Mizrahim to settlers in the territories. That tent has shrunk sonewhat and the settlers and religious component have become much more prominent. It's a lot like the US Republican Party, actually. But also like the GOP it is increasingly less about ideas and policy and more about the man who leads it. A Bibi-less Likud is incredibly lost and aimless, which is why they are so reticent to toss him aside.

[Walmart_shopper]

One report says that Arab turnout in various communities is generally between 9-11 percent. That's not overwhelming, but it's decent. Arab voters tend to get going a bit later and the turnout picture from that sector only becomes more clear as the day goes on. In September Arab turnout was generally pretty weak, but by midday people began to realize that Arabs were indeed showing up in decent numbers.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout as of 10am was 14.5%. In September it was 15%, April it was 12.9%, and in 2015 it was 13.5%. So pretty average.

Cheers!

Since we have nothing to do but wait, there's a question I always wanted to ask about Likud: how much coherence does it have as a party without Netanyahu as its leader? Are its supporters natural allies with one another ideologically? Does it have a web of internal institutions that help sustain it? Bibi's been the dominating personality in it for so long I've never really been able to tell how much there is (left) underneath him.

In addition to what Walmart_shopper said, I'd add that Likud does have internal institutions  that on paper should make for a solid party- important bodies that vote and make decisions within the party. But in the decade of Bibi, he slowly but surely took more and more control over the party, running off those who pose a threat (and thus any people of real talent). After him, Likud could very much be in turmoil. But maybe it'll be able to survive thanks to its history, its strong base and its institutions. We'll see (hopefully).

98% LGM, 91% JL, 90% KL. Not surprising.

Anyway I have a really bad feeling, all anecdotal reports so far have been bad. I think almost certainly that the right will at the very least become bigger than the center left this time. Meanwhile, here's my case for why Netanyahu has to go and why I'm voting LGM:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=362330.msg7211556#new

The only thing worse than anecdotal reports are anecdotal reports before 10 in the morning. It is impossible to tell anything until actual turnout figures start to cone in from different places and the day goes on.

Yeah, I guess. But I'm stressed!

I'm freaking out, personally, but real data is usually better than hysteria. I just don't know why we haven't already gotten six Bibi videos hyperventilating about six Arabs spotted in Taybeh voting and a guy on an electric scooter on Frischman who said he is a Gantz man. The lack of hysteria is really unnerving.

[Walmart_shopper]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

[Walmart_shopper]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

[Walmart_shopper]

27.6% turnout as of 12, the highest since 1999. I'm not sure if it's a good sign.

If Arab turnout is as high as we are hearing then this is exactly the kind of number you'd expect.

[Walmart_shopper]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

That would put them higher than average Jewish areas and on course to 16 seats. Highly doubt it

No, it would be more like 18 or 19 mandates. But I agree that it likely is not quite so high. In any case 16 mandates is totally realistic right now.

[Walmart_shopper]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

That would put them higher than average Jewish areas and on course to 16 seats. Highly doubt it

No, it would be more like 18 or 19 mandates. But I agree that it likely is not quite so high. In any case 16 mandates is totally realistic right now.

It’s proportional, I’m putting it on 16 because Likud turnout is also on the rise it seems. B&W might be in for a tough night I feel

It's entirely too hard and too early to know anything. Until actual numbers start to get reported from Beersheva, Bat Yam, Tel Aviv, etc., it's hard to know anything. I only saw that Haifa was at like 14%, which would (maybe) be bad for Blue amd White. But who knows. Anecdotal reports are usually wrong.

[Walmart_shopper]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

That would put them higher than average Jewish areas and on course to 16 seats. Highly doubt it

No, it would be more like 18 or 19 mandates. But I agree that it likely is not quite so high. In any case 16 mandates is totally realistic right now.

It’s proportional, I’m putting it on 16 because Likud turnout is also on the rise it seems. B&W might be in for a tough night I feel

It's entirely too hard and too early to know anything. Until actual numbers start to get reported from Beersheva, Bat Yam, Tel Aviv, etc., it's hard to know anything. I only saw that Haifa was at like 14%, which would (maybe) be bad for Blue amd White. But who knows. Anecdotal reports are usually wrong.

Low turnout in Haifa is bad for YB, the Carmel is business as usual

The Mount of Plenty saves the day.

[Walmart_shopper]

It's awfully hard to see what exactly is happening on the ground, but it appears that the turnout bump is being fueled mainly by a bump in Arab turnout. But that turnout is somewhat uneven. The Triangle, as you'd expect after Bibi planned to transfer them out of Israel, is high. Turnout in Umn Al Fahm was like 30-something percent TOTAL in September. The turnout is up there. Other Arab communities are high. But the turnout in urban centers, and Nazareth, is low, which is often the case--Arab turnout in Jaffa snd Haifa are typically anaemic. The other caveat is that Jewish turnout is pretty decent, given voter fatigue. There hasn't been a noticeable drop at all. What is not clear is where that turnout is coming from. Hopefully we will start to get more locally specific numbers soon.

[Walmart_shopper]

It's awfully hard to see what exactly is happening on the ground, but it appears that the turnout bump is being fueled mainly by a bump in Arab turnout. But that turnout is somewhat uneven. The Triangle, as you'd expect after Bibi planned to transfer them out of Israel, is high. Turnout in Umn Al Fahm was like 30-something percent TOTAL in September. The turnout is up there. Other Arab communities are high. But the turnout in urban centers, and Nazareth, is low, which is often the case--Arab turnout in Jaffa snd Haifa are typically anaemic. The other caveat is that Jewish turnout is pretty decent, given voter fatigue. There hasn't been a noticeable drop at all. What is not clear is where that turnout is coming from. Hopefully we will start to get more locally specific numbers soon.

#Anecdotal report- my friend from Tel Aviv said turnout at her polling station was higher than September (she was annoyed by the line). Which means absolutely nothing.

A long line to vote in left wing Tel Aviv is one of the least annoying things in the world.

[Walmart_shopper]

I think turnout surge will curve down towards the last ours. Final turnout at around 71%

In September people probably voted early and made it a beach day. Today the weather isn't quite so good. So who knows. I think 71% is a good guess, though.

[Walmart_shopper]

One report says that Umm al Fahm, a large Arab town in the Triangle region of the lower Galilee, has a turnout of 33% as of 1400.  That is roughly the TOTAL turnout from September. Localities don't publish their own turnout data, and numbers usually come from the parties running. So season to taste.

But feel free to flip back several pages in this thread to our discussion of whether Triangle Arabs really care if they are forced to reside in Palestine. I suppose today could be something of an answer.

[Walmart_shopper]

What sort of communities/turnout ought one look out for to detect strength for Likud/Bibi?

Ashdod, Ashkelon, Netanya(hu), Bat Yam, Afula, maybe Jerusalem, Beersheva, Sderot, Eilat, Tiberias.

Blue and White is strongest in Tel Aviv, and its northern and eastern suburbs (ramat hasharon), and various kibbutzim. Haifa is mostly KL territory, but with a lot of Russians and Arabs.

[Walmart_shopper]

More Arab sector turnout figures (provided by a right wing journalist who may just be making stuff up)...

Nazareth: 33%
Sakhnin: 40%
Arab parts of Haifa: 35%

Those are monster figures, if you're wondering. I can't determine their accuracy, but if they are remotely true tonight will be incredible.

On the other hand Joint List officials were concerned about low Arab turnout in Nazareth, so either they came to vote later (as Arabs do) or the numbers are bogus.

[Walmart_shopper]

Other Arab locales...

Kfar Kassem 23%
Kfar Khanna 20%

So not everywhere is showing outstanding turnout. But the major Arab population centers definitely are. I would love to see Jaffa, given how unbelievably low turnout usually is there.

[Walmart_shopper]

Fellow Israelis correct me, but is it just me seeing much less panic from everyone- Likud, KL, LGM, Yamina, Haredim etc?

Yes. It's downright freaky. The right is beginning to freak out about the high Arab turnout, but that's all I've seen. I wonder if everyone just doesn't really know what exactly is going on and doesn't want to he the boy who cried wolf. If you feel really good about things, you want to just sit back and not do anything to spoil it by rallying the other side or drawing attention to the numbers. What is odd is that literally everyone seems pretty calm about where they are at right now.

[Walmart_shopper]

2.7% increase. I’ll refine my prediction Likud 35 B&W 32 JL 16

Watch them get 17 mandates.

I think KL and Likud end up tied. The left bloc should have maybe 58 or 59 total. But I don't pretend to know anything more than anyone else.