AR-SEN: Does Cotton win every county if the independent Democrat doesn’t make the ballot?

[walleye26]

Highly doubt any counties, as previous GOP/Dem with a Libertarian/Green challenger only usually result in about a 80/20 split. That’s probably not enough for a third party to win any counties. If Harrington Jr. did win a County, I would put it as a majority black county on the Mississippi River/Delta region, the most likely being Lee, but Desha, Phillips, and Crittenden are possible. Chicot, St. Francis, and Jefferson would be more of a stretch.

[walleye26]

For reference, the AR-Gov race in 2018 was 65-32 for Hutchinson. Phillips County was the most Dem county in the state, going 54-44 for the Dem. Next up was Lee, going 53-45 for the Dem. Those are the most likely, and with Lee’s small population of only 10,000 or so, if Harrington Jr. actively campaigned there he might squeak by with a majority.