AR-SEN: Does Cotton win every county if the independent Democrat doesn’t make the ballot?

[I’m not Stu]

Does Tom Cotton win every county if the independent Democrat fails to qualify for the ballot? If not, which counties does Ricky Harrington win?

[walleye26]

Highly doubt any counties, as previous GOP/Dem with a Libertarian/Green challenger only usually result in about a 80/20 split. That’s probably not enough for a third party to win any counties. If Harrington Jr. did win a County, I would put it as a majority black county on the Mississippi River/Delta region, the most likely being Lee, but Desha, Phillips, and Crittenden are possible. Chicot, St. Francis, and Jefferson would be more of a stretch.

[walleye26]

For reference, the AR-Gov race in 2018 was 65-32 for Hutchinson. Phillips County was the most Dem county in the state, going 54-44 for the Dem. Next up was Lee, going 53-45 for the Dem. Those are the most likely, and with Lee’s small population of only 10,000 or so, if Harrington Jr. actively campaigned there he might squeak by with a majority.

[I’m not Stu]

For reference, the AR-Gov race in 2018 was 65-32 for Hutchinson. Phillips County was the most Dem county in the state, going 54-44 for the Dem. Next up was Lee, going 53-45 for the Dem. Those are the most likely, and with Lee’s small population of only 10,000 or so, if Harrington Jr. actively campaigned there he might squeak by with a majority.

I don't see why anyone in those counties would turn out if there isn't even a de facto Democrat like Dan Whitfield on the ballot.

[MT Treasurer]

For reference, the AR-Gov race in 2018 was 65-32 for Hutchinson. Phillips County was the most Dem county in the state, going 54-44 for the Dem. Next up was Lee, going 53-45 for the Dem. Those are the most likely, and with Lee’s small population of only 10,000 or so, if Harrington Jr. actively campaigned there he might squeak by with a majority.

I don't see why anyone in those counties would turn out if there isn't even a de facto Democrat like Dan Whitfield on the ballot.

The number of people who don’t turn out to vote in a presidential year because there’s no Democrat candidate in one single down-ballot race which would have been non-competitive even if a Democrat had been on the ballot is closer than zero than Harrington's chance of winning a county or two.

[I’m not Stu]

For reference, the AR-Gov race in 2018 was 65-32 for Hutchinson. Phillips County was the most Dem county in the state, going 54-44 for the Dem. Next up was Lee, going 53-45 for the Dem. Those are the most likely, and with Lee’s small population of only 10,000 or so, if Harrington Jr. actively campaigned there he might squeak by with a majority.

I don't see why anyone in those counties would turn out if there isn't even a de facto Democrat like Dan Whitfield on the ballot.

The number of people who don’t turn out to vote in a presidential year because there’s no Democrat candidate in one single down-ballot race which would have been non-competitive even if a Democrat had been on the ballot is closer than zero than Harrington's chance of winning a county or two.

I didn't mean that they wouldn't turn out at all. I meant that they wouldn't turn out for Senate.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

What happened ERM? Felt like radio silence for weeks and now you're suddenly overloaded with Congressional questions again

[One Term Floridian]

Yeah he probably does sweep each county. The drop off from the presidential ballot is going to be massive lol

[NewYorkExpress]

Even with the Independent Democrat, I think Cotton wins every County. That said, Pulaski County will be really close.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Tom Cotton was so despised he lost 3 counties.

[Calthrina950]

Tom Cotton was so despised he lost 3 counties.

The three counties he lost-Pulaski, Jefferson, and Phillips-are the most Democratic in the state. And Cotton only won Washington County (Fayetteville) by 6%. His Libertarian opponent Harrington pretty much received the entire Democratic vote, and the county map didn't look any different from what we would expect had Cotton faced a Democratic opponent.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Tom Cotton was so despised he lost 3 counties.

The three counties he lost-Pulaski, Jefferson, and Phillips-are the most Democratic in the state. And Cotton only won Washington County (Fayetteville) by 6%. His Libertarian opponent Harrington pretty much received the entire Democratic vote, and the county map didn't look any different from what we would expect had Cotton faced a Democratic opponent.

I mean getting pretty much every democrat voting libertarian is an achivement.

[I’m not Stu]

Democrats voted for the Libertarian. Harrington opposed Amy Coney Barrett, which helped him with Democrats.