OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

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One thing is for sure, Republicans won't be nominating JD Vance again. I also imagine after the clown show that was the Mandel v Vance primary, Republicans will take a much more serious approach to campaigning and not try to spend the entire primary being a caricature of a populist LARPer.

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Honestly, if he was nominated Dolan would probably push this close to Safe R.

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Brown is a good man, but he will probably lose Ohio and be the last Democrat to represent Ohio statewide for a while.

Ed Schultz must be rolling in his grave.

If Tim Ryan couldn't do it, Brown will run out of luck in 2024.

Sad.

Brown is not a good man.
He votes with Biden 98%.
A good man would not vote with Biden more than 70%.

Tbh, I think optics matter a lot more than how much % of the time someone votes with someone to voters. A lot of votes are procedural and stuff which can inflate someone's % accordingly.

Brown has never pretended to be moderate and has long been one of the most progressive senators, he’s very lucky he never had to run in 2010 or 2014 (or for that matter 2016 or 2020).

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Could Brown win Delaware county?

Biden could win it, so Brown definitely could.

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Matt Dolan is very likely in -

Matt Dolan, the Senate candidate who was the biggest surprise as he surged during the closing weeks of Ohio’s crowded and combustible Republican nomination race earlier this year, is taking concrete steps that could set him up for a second straight run for the Senate when Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s up for reelection in 2024.

Dolan, a state senator from the Cleveland area, was showered with support earlier this week during an event in Columbus where he was inducted into the Association of Ohio Commodores, an organization that assists the state in its advancement of economic growth and prosperity. The event attracts political leaders and activists from across Ohio. According to one attendee in the room, Dolan received sustained applause and was approached by numerous people pledging their support should he launch a 2024 Senate campaign.

Sources close to Dolan tell Fox News that while he’s not made a final decision on a bid, he’s taken steps in recent weeks to expand his pool of potential donor support and secure senior leadership for his campaign and leadership PAC, should he press ahead with a candidacy in the new year.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ohio-republican-takes-steps-launch-senate-challenge-vulnerable-democrat-sherrod-brown-2024

If he gets the nomination, this would be basically Safe R imo.

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https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1614998598537674760

Dolan will be making it official very soon.

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Imagine unironically believing that Republicans need Mike DeWine to beat Sherrod Brown or that Sherrod Brown will overperform by as much as Nancy Kaptur (when he’s never done that in the past and there are absolutely no indications the OH GOP is going to nominate someone like Majewski).

This isn’t any better than a Lean R race for Democrats.

Ryan made some of the same mistakes that Joe Donnelly did in 2018 - namely, campaigning as Republican-lite and using Republican rhetoric against the Democratic base, which was a major contributing factor in both of their losses (due to depressed Democratic base turnout).

Cenk Uygur, is that you?

I feel like lots of people forget that Brown didn’t actually overperform in 2012 and basically ran even with Obama (back when Ohio was a swing state), he’s probably going to need to outperform Biden by 5 to have a realistic chance of winning and I just don’t see that happening, also there will probably be a non-neglible amount of Biden/R voters in places like Delaware County (there are some towns there that voted Renacci/Biden). I honestly think this is a Likely R race, and there’s a realistic chance that it ends up right of the tipping point.

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Don't forget that despite Ryan's 2022 overperformance he had an obvious problem in a lot of urban areas. I don't think that this will be the case for Brown; he has a very strong relationship with the Ohio black community, from what I understand. That is to say, there is obviously room for Brown to grow on Ryan's performance. The real issue for Brown is that it seems like the GOP might nominate someone who isn't a total weirdo (i.e. LaRose); we'll see.

Also I feel like people are being excessively harsh on Brown's 2012 performance. 3 points above Obama 2012 in the Midwest is nothing to sneeze at, especially since Mandel wasn't such a joke back then. Casey Jr. did 4 points better than Obama and Baldwin ran behind him by a little bit, I think it would be silly to conclude that they are therefore mediocre candidates.

If this was right, you would have a valid point but Brown basically ran even with Obama, Mandel underperformed Romney by 2-3 pts. Casey Jr. I think will be fine unless Republicans win PA by like 3, but I don't think it's a stretch to say that Baldwin is in a tossup race (Gallagher is also sending clear signs that he's running).

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I really struggle to see who these scores of people are who will vote foe Trump but think Moreno is a bridge too far. It’s pretty clear Trumpy politics is not a liability in Ohio of all places, a state that Trump turned from a swing state into a red one.

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Frank LaRose is the most electable Candidate of all the Candidates running against Sherrod Brown. If he wins the Primary under whatever circumstances Sherrod Brown is DOA!

Well no, this would be Dolan, but I can definitely see LaRose or Dolan outrun Trump in places like Delaware County (where there were several Renacci/Biden voters).

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Frank LaRose is the most electable Candidate of all the Candidates running against Sherrod Brown. If he wins the Primary under whatever circumstances Sherrod Brown is DOA!

Well no, this would be Dolan, but I can definitely see LaRose or Dolan outrun Trump in places like Delaware County (where there were several Renacci/Biden voters).

Trump 2020 or Trump 2024?

2024, but 2020 could be possible if Dolan is nominated and it’s a sizable R victory. To understand what I’m getting at this with these possible Biden/Dolan or LaRose voters, think of someone like John Kasich, pretty conservative but absolutely loathes Trump. As we saw in 2020, plenty of anti-Trumpers voted R downballot especially for candidates they perceived as inoffensive.

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Brown and Tester have 50% or better Approvals

Heidi Heitkamp had 60% approvals at this point in 2018 and we all know how that ended. The question is if Brown and Tester will survive the negative barrage of attack ads, and all the available evidence suggests they won’t.

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Brown and Tester have 50% or better Approvals

Heidi Heitkamp had 60% approvals at this point in 2018 and we all know how that ended. The question is if Brown and Tester will survive the negative barrage of attack ads, and all the available evidence suggests they won’t.

Umm…Trump won North Dakota by over 30 points. He only won Montana by 16 and Ohio by8. Not a fair comparison.

The idea is just that approval ratings mean nothing right now. Also Brown’s numbers are 44-35, the approval number is very close to what Democrats in Ohio tend to get, which suggests undecideds lean Republican.

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Brown and Tester have 50% or better Approvals

Heidi Heitkamp had 60% approvals at this point in 2018 and we all know how that ended. The question is if Brown and Tester will survive the negative barrage of attack ads, and all the available evidence suggests they won’t.

Umm…Trump won North Dakota by over 30 points. He only won Montana by 16 and Ohio by8. Not a fair comparison.

Don't bother. If I remember correctly, this time last year he was saying that there was no way a Democrat could win PA-Sen because it was too red.

It wasn’t that, it was because it was a midterm year when the President’s approvals looked horrid and there will be no surprise from SCOTUS to save them this time. The consensus this time last year was that Democrats would be fortunate to have 48 Senate seats, and again none of those states they were defending were as red as Ohio or Montana. I mean let’s be honest if there were Republican incumbents in Virginia or New Jersey would anyone on this forum think they had a chance?

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This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

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This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

The last time Brown shared the ballot with a Republican presidential candidate, he won 9% of voters who also voted Republican at the presidential level.

Actually Brown and Obama’s vote percentages almost perfectly matched. It was Mandel who underperformed Romney’s vote share.

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This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

The last time Brown shared the ballot with a Republican presidential candidate, he won 9% of voters who also voted Republican at the presidential level.

I'd be shocked if it was more than 5% this time.

Ye. I think Brown could outrun Biden by 2-5% depending upon how the campaign goes. In 2020 Ohio was Trump + 8 and if we see a repeat of that, the race is probably out of reach for Brown barring dramatic circumstances. However, if the state is only voting like Trump + 3 it could be winnable.

My biggest concern would be how much further Dems have to fall in Ohio rurals. Ohio's rurals swinging further right in 2020 was able to completely cancel out the leftward swings in Columbus and Cinci. Infact, Ohio's rurals swung somewhat abnormally right from 2016, and I think this has to do with the relative lack of investment in 2020 compared to 2016.



In this 2016-2020 swing map, you can see Ohio's rurals stick out as swinging notably to the right.

I basically agree with this entire post. Brown can win in some universe where Ohio swings sizably left from 2020, I personally do not see this universe as likely, and it's much easier for me to see Ohio swinging right or staying stagnant. I also agree that Brown is DOA if he can't outrun Biden significantly in the rurals, and I think he will outperform less in the cities than some might think.

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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4510585-no-labels-to-host-call-with-ohio-senate-candidate-frank-larose/amp/

Hmmm, I wonder if some form of cross endorsement backed by big spending in the primary is in the cards…

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Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

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Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

I don’t want election deniers in office and I am very skeptical of the claim that Moreno will do significantly worse than Trump.

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Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

Ohio is control of the US Senate.

West Virginia is safe R.

There seems to be a consensus brewing among both parties that Tester and Cruz are in much better shape than initially appeared so with those two in the hands of a presidential wave, that leaves Ohio as the only hope for a Democratic senate

I think MT and TX are instances of campaign season not really starting yet - both Allred and Sheehy just aren't that well known or out there yet. I suspect things will change as we get closer to the election.

To add on to this, Democrats have not polled particularly poorly in Texas when considering the national numbers.

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I think Dolan would be close to locking up the seat, whereas while Moreno would be mildly favored, there is still a good opening for Brown to win. The Trump/Brown working class voters are not going to be kinder to Moreno over Dolan. They are going to be voting Sherrod anyway. What Dolan unlocks however, is being able to outrun Trump in those key urban/suburban counties like Hamilton, Montgomery, Franklin, Delaware, Cuyahoga, and Summit. By preventing Brown from making up ground in the suburbs vs Moreno, Dolan is the much stronger candidate.

People saying there is no way Brown/Tester outrun Trump by that much are being somewhat naive honestly. 18 years of incumbency is worth something, and its something that should absolutely scare Republicans. This is the same way its foolish for Dems to dismiss Hogan's senate prospects.

Well the thing is the state has changed in those 18 years and Brown has not changed with it. This is a different Ohio than the one he faced in 2006 or 2012. We have seen many examples of politicians being swept out when the electorate changes under them but they refuse to change with it. I agree Dolan could outrun Trump in suburban counties, but I don’t think Moreno will run meaningfully behind. What is your urban/suburban Republican who is voting Trump but thinks Moreno is too far? Can’t imagine they exist in any large number, so Brown would again be reliant on absurd overperformances in the rurals and in the rapidly Republican trending Northeast. The latter is among the parts of the state that has changed the most, so I’m skeptical he’s going to get the numbers he needs out of those smaller counties.

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I think Dolan would be close to locking up the seat, whereas while Moreno would be mildly favored, there is still a good opening for Brown to win. The Trump/Brown working class voters are not going to be kinder to Moreno over Dolan. They are going to be voting Sherrod anyway. What Dolan unlocks however, is being able to outrun Trump in those key urban/suburban counties like Hamilton, Montgomery, Franklin, Delaware, Cuyahoga, and Summit. By preventing Brown from making up ground in the suburbs vs Moreno, Dolan is the much stronger candidate.

People saying there is no way Brown/Tester outrun Trump by that much are being somewhat naive honestly. 18 years of incumbency is worth something, and its something that should absolutely scare Republicans. This is the same way its foolish for Dems to dismiss Hogan's senate prospects.

Well the thing is the state has changed in those 18 years and Brown has not change with it. This is a different Ohio than the one he faced in 2006 or 2012. We have seen many examples of politicians being swept out when the electorate changes under them but they refuse to change with it.

Barring a wave year how many long term incumbents have been defeated? In recent history I can only really think of Bill Nelson and Collin Peterson.

You can’t say “barring a wave” because 2010+2014 is when polarization really picked up. A lot of those incumbents were thought to be untouchable. There’s a lot of rewriting history now, but no one in 2008 would’ve guessed those seats collapsed as quickly as they did. The fact that people like Dan Boren ran for the exits in 2012 shows that there were quite a lot (also in states like NC) who knew they would be wiped out in 2012 and thus didn’t run again). On this note, if anyone wants to seriously argue Nick Rahall or John Barrow would’ve survived 2020, I’m willing to listen. In 2018, the pattern largely was the seats that were targeted were the ones that fell (defense in NV/AZ aside). OH, WV, and MT were largely deprioritized in 2018 and this time they are up on presidential ballots. The amount of candidates who actually survived in such a hostile district in 2020 (8 pts or worse for the opposite party) were basically a few Republicans in California, and Harley Rouda aside, those incumbents/candidates had all underperformed in their previous election.

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Dolan very clearly has momentum. I am seeing signs of Trump folks going they respect him and Moreno but voting Dolan because he can win.

The high profile Democratic intervention almost seems designed to backfire given how publicized it was

Hopefully this happens, and finally ends this stupid strategy. I mean it almost led to Kari Lake having a trifecta in Arizona which would've caused all kinds of damage and I would not be surprised if she would've tried to intervene in the election in inappropriate ways to "prove" fraud, had she won. We cannot get this wrong. Donald Trump and his handpicked candidates have been clear that they will govern in very authoritarian ways and he has pledged to be a dictator on Day One (anyone else wondering why he would stop on Day One). It is absolutely imperative that his handpicked candidates are defeated, and "but, they are the weaker opponent" is a weak and lousy excuse to not do so.

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It is obvious that what RI actually meant is that the “strategy” of preferring the most extreme candidate will likely fail this fall.