Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[S019]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

Yeah, except for the part where Biden wants it removed.

I mean the votes are in the House to kill it, if it isn't included, maybe they agree to raise the cap to a level where only the truly wealthy are affected, like say $70k or so.

[S019]

I mean the votes are in the House to kill it, if it isn't included, maybe they agree to raise the cap to a level where only the truly wealthy are affected, like say $70k or so.

Man, the following caclulations are probably somewhat misleading, but it is what it is. $4. Ok, may be $40.

https://www.crfb.org/blogs/repealing-salt-caps-would-cost-another-500-billion

Ehhh the scale is a lot less lopsided in places like NJ, since we have quite high property taxes. So this isn't really accurate in that sense.

https://www.njspotlight.com/2017/10/17-10-06-interactive-map-tracking-salt-deductions-across-the-state/

Particularly look at my home county (Morris)

[S019]

I mean the votes are in the House to kill it, if it isn't included, maybe they agree to raise the cap to a level where only the truly wealthy are affected, like say $70k or so.

Man, the following caclulations are probably somewhat misleading, but it is what it is. $4. Ok, may be $40.

https://www.crfb.org/blogs/repealing-salt-caps-would-cost-another-500-billion

Ehhh the scale is a lot less lopsided in places like NJ, since we have quite high property taxes. So this isn't really accurate in that sense.

https://www.njspotlight.com/2017/10/17-10-06-interactive-map-tracking-salt-deductions-across-the-state/

Particularly look at my home county (Morris)

Choices have consequences. Like, for example, choosing to own a home in an affluent Jersey burb. That doesn't mean the rest of the country should be in the business of subsidizing the upper middle class in certain states. Try convincing your local elected officials to allow you to deduct federal taxes from your state and local taxes instead.

Not to derail this thread too much, but this probably requires electing Republicans, who would defund our schools and our education quality would plummet, which is not ideal.

[S019]

Not to derail this thread too much, but this probably requires electing Republicans, who would defund our schools and our education quality would plummet, which is not ideal.

At risk of further derailment, that's why school funding should be centralized and doled out from the federal level--which would significantly reduce your state and local taxes. That said, it isn't how the system works. And since NJ has the best schools in the country, you deserve to pay more for what you get. It isn't fair to the rest of the country to ask us to subsidize your dream hoarding--which in Jersey, basically takes the form of moving to an exclusive neighborhood, paying an insane amount in property taxes for a de-facto elite private school, then writing off those taxes and asking the rest of the country to pick up the slack.

I mean using the deduction isn't a NJ only phenomenon, per this source: https://taxfoundation.org/salt-deduction-benefit/, over 40% of people in NJ, CT, MD, and DC used the deduction and over 35% in CA, OR, MA, and MN. Those aren't negligible amounts, as for centralizing school funding, I guess that could work, but my guess is property taxes would remain high anyways to continue to fund a high level of education and make up whatever the federal government didn't fund.

[S019]

Not to derail this thread too much, but this probably requires electing Republicans, who would defund our schools and our education quality would plummet, which is not ideal.

At risk of further derailment, that's why school funding should be centralized and doled out from the federal level--which would significantly reduce your state and local taxes. That said, it isn't how the system works. And since NJ has the best schools in the country, you deserve to pay more for what you get. It isn't fair to the rest of the country to ask us to subsidize your dream hoarding--which in Jersey, basically takes the form of moving to an exclusive neighborhood, paying an insane amount in property taxes for a de-facto elite private school, then writing off those taxes and asking the rest of the country to pick up the slack.

I mean using the deduction isn't a NJ only phenomenon, per this source: https://taxfoundation.org/salt-deduction-benefit/, over 40% of people in NJ, CT, MD, and DC used the deduction and over 35% in CA, OR, MA, and MN. Those aren't negligible amounts, as for centralizing school funding, I guess that could work, but my guess is property taxes would remain high anyways to continue to fund a high level of education and make up whatever the federal government didn't fund.

We're talking about maybe $100-$200 for people earning in the six figures. That's nothing.

No offense, but did you see my map, people in parts of Newark claim an average of 11k, people in Paterson claim 10k, literally anyone richer than them is subject to the cap. The cap is absurdly low for New Jersey.

[S019]

Not to derail this thread too much, but this probably requires electing Republicans, who would defund our schools and our education quality would plummet, which is not ideal.

At risk of further derailment, that's why school funding should be centralized and doled out from the federal level--which would significantly reduce your state and local taxes. That said, it isn't how the system works. And since NJ has the best schools in the country, you deserve to pay more for what you get. It isn't fair to the rest of the country to ask us to subsidize your dream hoarding--which in Jersey, basically takes the form of moving to an exclusive neighborhood, paying an insane amount in property taxes for a de-facto elite private school, then writing off those taxes and asking the rest of the country to pick up the slack.

I mean using the deduction isn't a NJ only phenomenon, per this source: https://taxfoundation.org/salt-deduction-benefit/, over 40% of people in NJ, CT, MD, and DC used the deduction and over 35% in CA, OR, MA, and MN. Those aren't negligible amounts, as for centralizing school funding, I guess that could work, but my guess is property taxes would remain high anyways to continue to fund a high level of education and make up whatever the federal government didn't fund.

We're talking about maybe $100-$200 for people earning in the six figures. That's nothing.

No offense, but did you see my map, people in parts of Newark claim an average of 11k, people in Paterson claim 10k, literally anyone richer than them is subject to the cap. The cap is absurdly low for New Jersey.

Yes I did. And I'm okay with that. This is Jersey's issue to fix, not America's. Congress isn't making policy just for Parsippany.

I mean I don't really think policy that is designed to hurt one particular state is good policy, and the SALT deduction cap unfairly hurts New Jersey and other similar states.

[S019]

Not to derail this thread too much, but this probably requires electing Republicans, who would defund our schools and our education quality would plummet, which is not ideal.

At risk of further derailment, that's why school funding should be centralized and doled out from the federal level--which would significantly reduce your state and local taxes. That said, it isn't how the system works. And since NJ has the best schools in the country, you deserve to pay more for what you get. It isn't fair to the rest of the country to ask us to subsidize your dream hoarding--which in Jersey, basically takes the form of moving to an exclusive neighborhood, paying an insane amount in property taxes for a de-facto elite private school, then writing off those taxes and asking the rest of the country to pick up the slack.

I mean using the deduction isn't a NJ only phenomenon, per this source: https://taxfoundation.org/salt-deduction-benefit/, over 40% of people in NJ, CT, MD, and DC used the deduction and over 35% in CA, OR, MA, and MN. Those aren't negligible amounts, as for centralizing school funding, I guess that could work, but my guess is property taxes would remain high anyways to continue to fund a high level of education and make up whatever the federal government didn't fund.

We're talking about maybe $100-$200 for people earning in the six figures. That's nothing.

No offense, but did you see my map, people in parts of Newark claim an average of 11k, people in Paterson claim 10k, literally anyone richer than them is subject to the cap. The cap is absurdly low for New Jersey.

Yes I did. And I'm okay with that. This is Jersey's issue to fix, not America's. Congress isn't making policy just for Parsippany.

I mean I don't really think policy that is designed to hurt one particular state is good policy, and the SALT deduction cap unfairly hurts New Jersey and other similar states.

It only affects you more because you made specific choices with regards to taxing and spending. It's not like God declared Jersey must pay more in property taxes than the rest of the country. You decided to tax yourselves, so step up and pay.

We seem to be back to square one, what is the alternative? Let our schools go bankrupt?


That's basically the same as saying grocery bills unfairly hurt Whole Foods shoppers so they should be deductible from income taxes.

I don't really follow this reasoning.

[S019]

Hope suburban NYC Democrats hold this hostage over SALT.

While I wouldn't put it as AGA did, pro SALT suburban voters are at least partly responsible for the Democratic House majority and not putting it in this bill is a betrayal to those voters and frankly it's disrespectful to them too, and indicates that their concerns don't really matter.

[S019]

Hope suburban NYC Democrats hold this hostage over SALT.

While I wouldn't put it as AGA did, pro SALT suburban voters are at least partly responsible for the Democratic House majority and not putting it in this bill is a betrayal to those voters and frankly it's disrespectful to them too, and indicates that their concerns don't really matter.

Correct, the concerns of the UMC and the wealthy really shouldn’t matter.

I mean pro-SALT districts (CA-45, CA-49, NJ-07, NJ-11, NJ-05, VA-10, etc.) definitely are enough seats to be the balance of the House majority.

Also: while I think an infrastructure package with no SALT is better than no infrastructure package, Democrats can basically kiss the House majority goodbye if there's no SALT in here, especially given the number of seats they're guaranteed to lose based on redistricting alone (TN-05, MO-05, a few in FL, one in GA).

[S019]

Hope suburban NYC Democrats hold this hostage over SALT.

While I wouldn't put it as AGA did, pro SALT suburban voters are at least partly responsible for the Democratic House majority and not putting it in this bill is a betrayal to those voters and frankly it's disrespectful to them too, and indicates that their concerns don't really matter.

Correct, the concerns of the UMC and the wealthy really shouldn’t matter.

I mean pro-SALT districts (CA-45, CA-49, NJ-07, NJ-11, NJ-05, VA-10, etc.) definitely are enough seats to be the balance of the House majority.

Also: while I think an infrastructure package with no SALT is better than no infrastructure package, Democrats can basically kiss the House majority goodbye if there's no SALT in here

If we lose places like VA-10 and CA-49 in 2022, it’ll be because of much bigger problems than not getting rid of the SALT cap. And really, electoral considerations such as keeping the majority isn’t really the point. It’s about what’s right, and continuing to subsidize the lifestyles of the UMC and the rich, is not.

Those two were in reference to picking them up in 2018, and CA-49 is likely to be heavily redrawn due to a likely cut of a seat to its north which will force it northwards and out of blue SD suburbs like Del Mar and Encinitas, and likely into red South OC.

[S019]

What is SALT and why does it matter?

A tax deduction that allows high tax states to fund social services, like schools, without needing insanely high tax rates.

[S019]

What is SALT and why does it matter?

A tax deduction that allows high tax states to fund social services, like schools, without needing insanely high tax rates.

Why is Biden against it?

That is misleading ,

SALT is an itemized deduction that lets you deduct State and Local taxes on your tax return . Keep in mind that the deduction is only beneficial if you have total itemized deductions of over $12,400 for singes  and $24,800 for joint filers .

So basically unless you are already pretty affluent, that deduction will very likely not benefit you

No....

Just no, look at the map I posted earlier, it puts this myth to rest.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

Yeah but now he has the same position as Biden.

especially when the bill probably can’t pass the House without it.

Earmarks, baby.

Pelosi supports SALT relief; why would she use earmarks to kill it?  And why would Biden pick this as a hill to die on, regardless of his views on the issues?  Why would it matter to him that much?

"Relief" lmao. Because Biden can probably get everything he wants here. No adjustments to SALT and more infrastructure to buy off the suburbanites. Plus, I really don't see this playing well with most senators. Other than Manchin, I can absolutely see someone like Sanders throwing a fit over this with the go-ahead from Biden.

Neither Bernie nor Manchin nor Biden are gonna kill the bill over this.

Passing a floor amendment after the house sends the bill over != killing the bill.

It can’t pass the House w/o SALT relief

Here's the thing, it probably can.

No it can't, three Dems came out publicly saying they won't support it, and the vote margin right now is like 3 or 4, there are probably more who haven't come out yet, but probably will.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

Yeah but now he has the same position as Biden.

especially when the bill probably can’t pass the House without it.

Earmarks, baby.

Pelosi supports SALT relief; why would she use earmarks to kill it?  And why would Biden pick this as a hill to die on, regardless of his views on the issues?  Why would it matter to him that much?

"Relief" lmao. Because Biden can probably get everything he wants here. No adjustments to SALT and more infrastructure to buy off the suburbanites. Plus, I really don't see this playing well with most senators. Other than Manchin, I can absolutely see someone like Sanders throwing a fit over this with the go-ahead from Biden.

Neither Bernie nor Manchin nor Biden are gonna kill the bill over this.

Passing a floor amendment after the house sends the bill over != killing the bill.

It can’t pass the House w/o SALT relief

Here's the thing, it probably can.

No it can't, three Dems came out publicly saying they won't support it, and the vote margin right now is like 3 or 4, there are probably more who haven't come out yet, but probably will.

Everyone will flip-flop for the right price.

Then why would it get taken out of the House bill, if it passed the House with it? That logic works both ways.

[S019]

Here is a Hill article on the implications of this: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/546215-senate-parliamentarian-to-let-democrats-bypass-filibuster-with-third-bill


From my reading, Democrats could amend the budget as many times as they want, and unlock unlimited reconciliation bills, if true, that would obviously be big.

[S019]

I don't necessarily support eliminating the cap, but I would support raising it to affect only the highest of earners.

Isn't already? Take a look at the graph.

I mean the votes are in the House to kill it, if it isn't included, maybe they agree to raise the cap to a level where only the truly wealthy are affected, like say $70k or so.

Man, the following caclulations are probably somewhat misleading, but it is what it is. $4. Ok, may be $400.

https://www.crfb.org/blogs/repealing-salt-caps-would-cost-another-500-billion

Man, Pelosi is such a great messenger. Otherwise, how could she make "progressives" to defend this? She could easily make people to re-open the schools that would greatly benefit poor kids. Well, donors are more important, I guess.

Are you interested in good faith discussion. Politicallefty just showed why the cap is needed, but you seem more interested in scoring political points

[S019]

Schumer says they are planning a reconciliation package, even if the bipartisan talks are successful: https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1404522839718436871?s=20

I do wonder what "bold action on climate means," given Democrats are opposed to a gas tax increase, and user fees in general, and a direct carbon tax or cap and trade are likely off the table, electric vehicle subsidies could be it, but iirc that was being discussed in the bipartisan package.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1404557248840581129?s=21

So the Republicans also have concerns about gas tax indexing, it's probably dead sadly then, the one good thing that we thought the Republicans could do, they couldn't do.

[S019]

And Manchin and Sinema have indicated openness to a Democratic only plan

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1404560101617422339

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1404558902310678528?s=21

[S019]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1405939797647036424?s=21


Well, this is a total disaster. Say goodbye to any hope of getting any action on carbon emissions reduction for the next 10 years, at which point, it'll probably be too late.

[S019]

Good, raising the gas tax is a guaranteed way of losing in 2022. Democrat’s intentionally raising prices at the pump writes its own propaganda

How incredibly naive to assume that "this midterm will be different" or "Democrats are not already basically guaranteed to lose." Also good policy should always take precedent over electoral concerns, Democrats need to act on climate, like yesterday.

[S019]

...and Republicans are going to runs ads about how Democrats voted against the bipartisan infrastructure bill

Great job!

If Democrats are going to run their legislative agenda based on what Republicans are going to run ads against, I suppose Congress should just go back to naming post offices.

I couldn't care less about what Republicans are going to run ads about. They're going to run ads against President Biden, against Speaker Pelosi, and against Leader Schumer. They're always going to find something. I'd rather have something to show for it for the American people than sit around and do nothing and lose our majorities anyway. I think Pelosi herself said that passing the ACA was worth losing the House Majority and her Speakership. If Democrats get can get the bipartisan bill, the reconciliation bill, and a voting rights bill through Congress, it would be a monumental victory for the party and President Biden going into the midterms.

I agree, but unlike these two bills, the voting rights bill would require filibuster reform, which seems very unlikely. I do think these infrastructure packages will get done in the end, mostly because Pelosi is good at whipping votes, my biggest concern honestly is that Sinema has repeatedly refused to support a $3.5 T package and however much money she wants taken out of it will obviously make a big difference (for instance her pulling 1 T from it would be far worse than her pulling 500 B)

[S019]

Dems would be much better off running on an impactful 3.5T bill than some watered down flop bipartisan bill.

It's not a "flop bill".

Do you even know what is in it?

Maybe you should find out.

It's not nearly as comprehensive as the reconciliation bill so yes its a flop.

Give me everything I want or I'll blow everyone up.

That's called a hostage negotiation.

And that's not what Manchin is doing??? Sounding very hypocritical right now.

No, it isn't.

He just said that he doesn't support the 3.5 trillion price tag.

He's literally threatening to kill the reconciliation bill or anything near its price tag, so he's literally going kamikaze on the whole process cuz he knows House Dems won't take up the bipartisan bill without a reconciliation bill being passed by the senate. He's literally doing what you're accusing me of supporting. Talking about ruining the only thing Dems can run on, as if that's not exactly what he's doing right now.

Cut it in half and he'll say that he is satisfied.

Lmao no. He gets his bipartisan bill, progressives and Party leaders get their 3.5T. Compromise isn't when moderates get everything they want and progressives keep giving more and more until moderates are satisfied. That's moderate dominance. Progressives already compromised by lowering the reconciliation from like 6T to 3.5T. Manchin needs to shut his mouth and accept that.

How many "progressives" are running in Republican-leaning districts?

Manchin is not winning re-election, he just should toe the party line and cash out with a nice job after 4 years, Cory Gardner understood this, which is why he just toed the party line for 6 years.

[S019]

Bloomberg report that "Democrats plan `meaningful' change to cap on SALT deduction"

This will not go down well with Dems from rural low tax states.

Not will it go well for the wealthy urban/suburban New Jersey "fiscally conservative, socially liberal" Democrats. Especially for Josh "No SALT, no dice" Gotteimer

TBF, the point of the SALT deductions is so that states don’t become little mini Caymans and start a race to the bottom that derails local government by strangling it. Not that Gotteimer cares, but atleast he is plausibly working for his constituents. Unlike Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema who are pretty blatant about being tools for the highest bidder.

Yeah this, I honestly find it pretty laughable how little people know about why the SALT deduction exists. It's like they don't realize that all of these services need money and if taxes get too high, state governments are either going to be forced to lower them and compensate by cutting spending, or get voted out. I would rather my state not become Brownback-era Kansas, just because some ill-informed internet progressives think that SALT is "a TaX CuT FoR ThE RiCh," when in actuality, it's far more complicated

[S019]

Hold your horses folks. I'm pro-Biden, but this ultimately boils down to a mild expansion of the social safety net and a mild repudiation of Reaganism, which, while great news, is hardly monumental. Something along the lines of 3.5 or 6 trillion may have been more worthy of Rushmore, but of course I don't blame Biden for that.

Had Biden done the following, he would be worthy of Rushmore

-6 trillion American Family Plan
-1.7 trillion American Jobs Plan
-John Lewis Voting Rights Act
-For the People Act
-End Filibuster
-End debt ceiling
-Law prevents government shutdowns, no budget passes means staying at current levels

Make sure Family Plan had free college, immigration, $15 an hour, PRO act, teacher pay, lower Medicare to 55, free insulin. 15,000 housing credit and public option

Make sure Job Plan protects country from climate, AI, cyber attack, natural diaster, hacking and stuff to clea up the oceans and near space

Through executive order, Biden could forgive all student loans and end stupid mandatory testing in schools. Also mandate civics and real life skills be taught

Ending mandatory testing would do literally no good, and further destroy the American education system. The rest is fine, though free college for everyone is a bit excessive imo.