NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[S019]

I am ultimately expecting a Trump v Walker primary and if such happens, it will be a good test of whether the Trump name or the party machinery will be more influential, anyways Lean R

[S019]

If Lara gets the nomination, I just might go to North Carolina to campaign for Jackson.

If you do that you'll be helping the socialists get power dimwit...

I am saying it right now: If either Ossoff or Warnock wins, I'll leave the forum for 1 solid year.

[S019]

Jackson is probably the best chance we have, but I still wonder if running for this seat in a possible Republican year instead of against Tillis in 2020 is the right move for him. It might actually be a wash.

I actually think the Warnock model might be the better bet here tbh.

Yeah this honestly, I was never enthusiastic about Jackson to begin with, and have been rooting for Cheri Beasley or Anita Earls this whole time, to try the base first approach of Warnock.

[S019]

I hope the DSCC doesn't endorse in this race. That's a big mistake they made in 2020.

In what way was their intervention in 2020 a mistake?

They coronated Cal Cunningham, a relatively unqualified nobody, which prevented a wider array of options from running.

They also forced out Jeff Jackson, who probably would have won.

2) The DSCC did not force out a would-be winning candidate in 2020, it dodged a bullet by keeping Jackson out.  

Finally, the DSCC turned to Josh Jackson...only to find out that he had somehow concluded that the way to win was to do almost literally no fundraising and completely surrender the airwaves to Tillis (or rather, leave ads exclusively to Dem-allied PACs).  

IIRC Schumer indicated that the DSCC would back him if he would commit to doing at least some fundraising, but Jackson refused and that left the DSCC with no one but a random DINO state Senator (Erica Smith).  At this point, the DSCC played the crappy hand it had been dealt and went with Cunningham.  In the meantime, we kept Jackson on the bench for a later campaign whenever he could be made to see reason (and IIRC he eventually accepted you have to fundraise some to win a Senate race).

This is my main concern with Jackson, and it's why I'm fully behind Beasley.

[S019]

Budd rumored to enter:

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1380276491041312770


Same source says McCrory likely to enter and Trump not likely to enter:

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1380278156012183558

[S019]

Man, the GOP primary is really shaping up to be a mess.

It's not like the Democratic primary is any better with Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, and Cheri Beasley all running against each other.

[S019]

Safe R, nothing to see here

lol

[S019]

https://twitter.com/joebrunowsoc9/status/1387380352054923264?s=21

cringe

Not just cringe, one of the most cringe ads I've ever seen, imagine unironically using "woke" and "trigger warning" in a political ad, that's online political slang, not the type of language you use in a formal campaign.

[S019]

Good, she's our best chance of winning this seat next year, honestly. She did outrun Biden in 2020, so that's a plus. Meanwhile Biden won Jackson's Senate district 60-39, compared to Jackson's 55-41 win.

[S019]

Good, Beasley was the stronger candidate anyways.

[S019]

And in North Carolina, Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley has spent $6.3 million on ads, while GOP Rep. Ted Budd has relied almost exclusively on the NRSC to respond.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/election-forecast-dems-gops-senate-00054842

This is what makes me think Beasley has a shot here. She essentially pulled a Tim Ryan and spent millions during the summer to define herself/Budd while Budd is broke himself and has only spent a minute money on ads - thanks to NRSC up to this point

It should also be noted that North Carolina is a much friendlier state for Democrats than Ohio.

https://twitter.com/ProgressNow_NC/status/1568332183172956160?s=20&t=FbwcX3A...
I think this is also quite noteworthy.

[S019]

Axios partner Engagious/Schlesinger recently gathered 11 swing voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Eight of 11 saw a picture of Beasley and said they could name her, while only 4 of 11 said they could name Budd.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1571968288539942914

I don't live in NC but was Beasley particularly well liked as a State Supreme Justice? Just because they are more likely able to identify her doesn't necessarily mean they like her especially in a case like this.

I thought it was interesting because it means Budd has done a worse job at introducing himself to voters and that's not surprising since Beasley has owned him in the ad wars (aside from outside spending)

This was also interesting: 8 of the 11 said they were very likely to vote in the midterms.
0 said they'd vote for Budd.

Didn't say how many would vote for Beasley.

The panel was also 8 independents, 2 Dems, and 1 Rep. The fact that out of 9 Indies/GOP not even 1 said they'd vote for Budd is kinda stunning.

Is there any empirical evidence whether focus groups have any predictive power? This one does confirm the obvious that Budd getting outspent massively isn’t helping him, but a sample size of 11 is not useful. Are focus groups just an artifact of a less statistically aware time? Especially because they’re something where social desirability bias could play a huge role.

Focus groups literally only exist for campaigns to test messaging and see what messaging is popular. They're not useful for electoral analysis.

[S019]

Democrats buying more ad time here, this has all the makings of a late ad blitz:

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1580685383339495425