2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[dunceDude]

I really want to leave this limbo where Biden has a 90=95% chance but no one can say for sure. The online narrative is going to be extremely stupid/negative until then.

Unless most of your uncertainty is rogue court decisions, Biden seems well over 95% to win to me.  He's about 95% in PA alone, and probably >80% to win the AZ+NV backstop even if that fails, and this doesn't even include GA or NC.  I'd say Biden is close to 99% to win a fair vote count at this point.

I simply refuse to put him above 95% mentally. It would hurt too much to be wrong.

If Nevada posts good numbers I'll feel better.

[dunceDude]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324152903364304896

Biden +4.3 is not good to be clear, but it does indicate that states like Arizona and Georgia (and even North Carolina) are moving left faster than the nation at large. This would be good news for the 2024 nominee.

(Nevada + Arizona + Georgia + North Carolina + Minnesota = 275)*
*census will change totals slightly

[dunceDude]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324152903364304896

Biden +4.3 is not good to be clear, but it does indicate that states like Arizona and Georgia (and even North Carolina) are moving left faster than the nation at large. This would be good news for the 2024 nominee.

Yes, Georgia flipping in a Dem <5 environment is impressive for Biden.

Imagine if it had actually been Dem +10.

More interesting to me is a D+1, D+2 environment in 2024. Do we hold on in Minnesota and ride the Sun Belt to narrow victory while WI/MI/PA flip red again?

[dunceDude]

I think you still make heavy investment in the upper midwest. Biden has strong ties to PA and will want to have a "hometown" effect in 2024. Out of WI/MI/PA, I think holding on to PA in 2024 is vital.

Biden will not be the nominee in 2024—but that's a discussion I don't want to have anytime soon.

[dunceDude]

Biden's popular vote lead now stands at 2.5%. On PredictIt, shares for a win in the 3.0-4.5% range have doubled in the last 6 hours to 50%. 4.5-6% is plausible as well at 40%. Silver tweeted a rough guess at final vote Biden+4.3%.

Rough calc of tipping point and popular vote/EC split

Assuming that Biden wins Pennsylvania by more than .6 points but does NOT win Georgia or Arizona by that much, Wisconsin will be the tipping point state. If Biden wins AZ or GA by more than Wisconsin, that larger margin would be the tipping point. That makes Georgia the other main contender for tipping point state as I get the sense Arizona will be a squeaker.

(Nevada does not have enough EVs to be tipping point regardless of margin. It would only put Biden at 269 after PA/MI/MN)

Let's just assume Silver's dead on with the +4.3% final popular vote margin and Wisconsin is the tipping point—that's a popular vote/EC split of 3.7%.

In 2016, that split was only 2.8% (HRC won by 2.1% but lost PA, tipping point state, by 0.7%).

Does this suggest that Biden's coalition was even less efficient than Hillary Clinton's?

Also interesting to think about the national crisis that would have followed a slight shift .6% toward the GOP—Trump re-elected despite a 3.7% popular vote loss.

Of course, win Georgia by a larger margin and the math all changes.

[dunceDude]

I'm not sure Nate Silver has any credibility left. There are probably better people you could turn to for an understanding of the remaining vote.

Maybe unpopular opinion, Silver did a good job.

Mentally I know this election is over but I wouldn't mind reading it on the front page of the NYT just to be sure.

[dunceDude]

I wonder if we can realistically expect a call tonight. I'm so exhausted from these past ~30 hours of nail-biting election results. It's just a waiting game of seeing whether networks call PA/GA first.

I'm just making a guess but that guess is yes.

[dunceDude]