Virginia Senate I see for most of the same reason--I don't think the Democrats can protect their seats even if they gerrymander it heavily. Also, Republicans are likely to pick up a seat or two in NOVA (where they hold every seat) even if the Democrats try to gerrymander protection simply because NOVA isn't uniformly Democratic enough to support a 10-0 Delegation. On top of that, 2011 is almost certainly going to be a better year for Republicans than 2007 was, which was when the Chamber was last elected.
I am not arguing with what you're saying, but are you sure you don't want to edit that part I bolded? Because I am absolutely positive that Republicans do not control every Senate district in Northern Virginia.
A lot depends on how cooperative the black caucus is with redistricting. You can easily have a Democratic gain of two seats in the Hampton Roads area and two around Richmond if you are willing to drop BVAPs into the mid 40s. The new districts would still be 64% or so Obama, and Blacks would be a majority of Democratic primary voters. But if they want to cause trouble they have the seats to do so.
Northern VA can be maintained or even expanded, but not without hacking and slashing districts to pieces. The districts, which now run East-West, would have to be redrawn to run North-South in order maximize Democratic voting strength, and that would require significant changes.
Basically it is possible for the Democrats to gerymander themselves into a majority, but it requires such a radical alteration that a number of incumbents would be representing 45-50% new territory in exchange for moving from 50% Obama seats to 55% or so ones. And thats a trade-off they may not chose to make.
As for the VA House, the Democrats pretty much have to make gains. The GOP won a bunch of seats they have zero business holding with the current incumbents in 2009, and I would expect a 3-4 Democratic gain under the current map. Whether the Republicans could gerrymander it further is an open question. The current map is one of the most-lopsided gerrymanders in the country and allowed the GOP to pick up 12 seats in 2001. It will be interesting to see if the GOP uses their free hand to try and save everyone or cuts two or three incumbents free.
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