State Legislative Chambers in LA, MS, and VA

[Frodo]

And here are their final configurations as of September 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Louisiana House:

58 Republicans
45 Democrats
2 independents

Louisiana Senate:

24 Republicans
15 Democrats

Mississippi House:

64 Republicans
58 Democrats

Mississippi Senate:

31 Republicans
21 Democrats

Virginia House:

67 Republicans
32 Democrats
1 independent

Virginia Senate:

20 Republicans
20 Democrats

[rbt48]

I don't envision the Virginia House becoming much more strongly Republican than it is.  The Mississippi Senate will probably remain pretty close to 27-25 baring a blow-out in the governorship race, which I don't see happening.  Otherwise, the Republicans should gain in the remaining chambers, I do believe.

[Bacon King]

Redistricting in LA will give the state legislature to the GOP for the forseeable future. In MS, a lot depends on if they can compromise on a new map for this year (and if not, increased black turnout for Obama's reelection could help the Dems in 2012). I don't know too much about what the Virginia redistricting situation is looking like, but my gut tells me that demographic trends will keep the state from trending too far rightward- it may become more Republican on the state level, but not overwhelmingly so.   

[Dgov]

All but the Virginia House--Mississippi and Louisiana both are under-represented by Republicans based on their actual political leanings and are very likely to see Republican gains based purely on how many Blue-Dog Democrats there are in highly vulnerable districts.

Virginia Senate I see for most of the same reason--I don't think the Democrats can protect their seats even if they gerrymander it heavily.  Also, Republicans are likely to pick up a seat or two in NOVA (where they hold every seat) even if the Democrats try to gerrymander protection simply because NOVA isn't uniformly Democratic enough to support a 10-0 Delegation.  On top of that, 2011 is almost certainly going to be a better year for Republicans than 2007 was, which was when the Chamber was last elected.

The Virginia House on the other hand, is probably going to be pretty even, as the Republicans have a large majority that was re-elected lately.

[Frodo]

Virginia Senate I see for most of the same reason--I don't think the Democrats can protect their seats even if they gerrymander it heavily.  Also, Republicans are likely to pick up a seat or two in NOVA (where they hold every seat) even if the Democrats try to gerrymander protection simply because NOVA isn't uniformly Democratic enough to support a 10-0 Delegation.  On top of that, 2011 is almost certainly going to be a better year for Republicans than 2007 was, which was when the Chamber was last elected.

I am not arguing with what you're saying, but are you sure you don't want to edit that part I bolded?  Because I am absolutely positive that Republicans do not control every Senate district in Northern Virginia. 

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I'm 99% sure he meant Democrats hold every seat in NOVA.

[Dgov]

Virginia Senate I see for most of the same reason--I don't think the Democrats can protect their seats even if they gerrymander it heavily.  Also, Republicans are likely to pick up a seat or two in NOVA (where they hold every seat) even if the Democrats try to gerrymander protection simply because NOVA isn't uniformly Democratic enough to support a 10-0 Delegation.  On top of that, 2011 is almost certainly going to be a better year for Republicans than 2007 was, which was when the Chamber was last elected.

I am not arguing with what you're saying, but are you sure you don't want to edit that part I bolded?  Because I am absolutely positive that Republicans do not control every Senate district in Northern Virginia. 

I mean in the Farifax county/D.C. Suburbs Area.  I think the Republicans hold one seat in outer Loudon and one that takes a part of PWC, but nothing in the rest of the area.

[Dan the Roman]

Virginia Senate I see for most of the same reason--I don't think the Democrats can protect their seats even if they gerrymander it heavily.  Also, Republicans are likely to pick up a seat or two in NOVA (where they hold every seat) even if the Democrats try to gerrymander protection simply because NOVA isn't uniformly Democratic enough to support a 10-0 Delegation.  On top of that, 2011 is almost certainly going to be a better year for Republicans than 2007 was, which was when the Chamber was last elected.

I am not arguing with what you're saying, but are you sure you don't want to edit that part I bolded?  Because I am absolutely positive that Republicans do not control every Senate district in Northern Virginia. 

I mean in the Farifax county/D.C. Suburbs Area.  I think the Republicans hold one seat in outer Loudon and one that takes a part of PWC, but nothing in the rest of the area.

A lot depends on how cooperative the black caucus is with redistricting. You can easily have a Democratic gain of two seats in the Hampton Roads area and two around Richmond if you are willing to drop BVAPs into the mid 40s.  The new districts would still be 64% or so Obama, and Blacks would be a majority of Democratic primary voters. But if they want to cause trouble they have the seats to do so.

Northern VA can be maintained or even expanded, but not without hacking and slashing districts to pieces. The districts, which now run East-West, would have to be redrawn to run North-South in order maximize Democratic voting strength, and that would require significant changes.

Basically it is possible for the Democrats to gerymander themselves into a majority, but it requires such a radical alteration that a number of incumbents would be representing 45-50% new territory in exchange for moving from 50% Obama seats to 55% or so ones. And thats a trade-off they may not chose to make.

As for the VA House, the Democrats pretty much have to make gains. The GOP won a bunch of seats they have zero business holding with the current incumbents in 2009, and I would expect a 3-4 Democratic gain under the current map. Whether the Republicans could gerrymander it further is an open question. The current map is one of the most-lopsided gerrymanders in the country and allowed the GOP to pick up 12 seats in 2001. It will be interesting to see if the GOP uses their free hand to try and save everyone or cuts two or three incumbents free.

[minionofmidas]

If you're just limiting it to Fairfax and PW, NoVa and Politically Uniform are synonyms. I'm pretty positive you couldn't hack out a Republican seat no matter how hard you try - though you could have some R seats based elsewhere protruding in.
Population distribution changes favor Democrats (apart from whatever Democratic presence remains in Southwest Virginia at the state level. I presume the exception is relevant.) IIRC the current map is a hard R gerrymander. No idea if that applies only to the House or to the Senate as well (in which case it would be a backfired gerrymander; I'm too lazy to look it up and it might just as well be that the two chambers, in traditional split control style, scratched each others' backs by greenlighting each others' opposite partisan gerrymanders.)

[ScottM]

Mississippi should be a good state for the GOP this year. There's a redistricting battle going on here that will most likely damage the Democrats severely. House Speaker Billy McCoy is trying to circumvent the State Constitution by refusing conference with the Senate and taking the issue to the justice department after the map proposed by the Democrats in the House failed to pass the Senate. We may wind up having legislative elections in back to back years if the issue isn't settled. But, McCoy is damaging his party with the attitude he is taking toward the process. A year or so ago, the House seemed out of reach for the GOP. Now it looks very winnable.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm going to wait until I see the new maps before I predict anything (beyond the Democrats getting wiped out in LA).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If you're just limiting it to Fairfax and PW, NoVa and Politically Uniform are synonyms. I'm pretty positive you couldn't hack out a Republican seat no matter how hard you try - though you could have some R seats based elsewhere protruding in.

Seriously? There's quite a few Republican areas in the outer parts of those. I'm going to try.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK here's my best shot:



This seat narrowly voted for Obama 50.8-49.2 but has an average of giving Republicans 55.2-44.8 from 2000-2009 so it would no doubt be won by a Republican in an odd-year election barring an absolutely horrendous candidate. Granted I know this area is arguably not that part of NOVA and more comparable to Loudon. Note that it doesn't even look bad.



52.0-48.0 Obama and 51.5-48.5 Republican average. Probably the strongest I can get for a entirely Fairfax district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Green district: 50.7 McCain.
Yellow district: 51.1 McCain.

Not that you would need to pack in exurby districts like that, since Obama way over-performed in Loudoun and Prince William. People think Fairfax is a uniformly Democratic county now, when it's not; the outer edges of it (particularly places like Great Falls, Clifton, and Centreville) are still pretty Republican.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Centreville? I had to specifically cut most of that out of the district. It was 57% for Obama and has a average support for Democrats over the decade.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

You're right, it's more the area between Centreville and Chantilly.

[minionofmidas]

Alright, so I was using a mental map of PW that doesn't include the areas west of Manassas. So sue me.
I was aware of Republicanish parts in northwest Fairfax and surprisingly strong Republican parts in far southern Fairfax (with the Dems then beginning again as you cross the line into PW). Johnny's Fairfax seat combines these two areas, of course.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There's talk of merging McLean (and possibly Great Falls) with one of the Arlington districts, which has gotten all of the Arlington liberals in a tizzy, because apparently it will take away their voice in the legislature. I guess they'd rather be in the minority as long as it kept their representative in Arlington.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So like this? I don't see the big deal, someone from Arlington might still get elected anyway:

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yeah, something like that. I don't get it either, but then, I don't live in NoVa.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Mississippi should be a good state for the GOP this year. There's a redistricting battle going on here that will most likely damage the Democrats severely. House Speaker Billy McCoy is trying to circumvent the State Constitution by refusing conference with the Senate and taking the issue to the justice department after the map proposed by the Democrats in the House failed to pass the Senate. We may wind up having legislative elections in back to back years if the issue isn't settled. But, McCoy is damaging his party with the attitude he is taking toward the process. A year or so ago, the House seemed out of reach for the GOP. Now it looks very winnable.

Excellent post. 

Clear, factual, and logical.

[ScottM]

Mississippi should be a good state for the GOP this year. There's a redistricting battle going on here that will most likely damage the Democrats severely. House Speaker Billy McCoy is trying to circumvent the State Constitution by refusing conference with the Senate and taking the issue to the justice department after the map proposed by the Democrats in the House failed to pass the Senate. We may wind up having legislative elections in back to back years if the issue isn't settled. But, McCoy is damaging his party with the attitude he is taking toward the process. A year or so ago, the House seemed out of reach for the GOP. Now it looks very winnable.

Excellent post.  

Clear, factual, and logical.

Actually, there is one other thing I should probably add. I don't know why I didn't think to put this in before. The redistricting battle may well be what determines the outcome of the House elections this year in Mississippi. If McCoy gets his way, that may be enough to hold the House for the Dems. But, if the GOP wins this battle or they run in current districts this year and run in new districts next year, that makes things considerably easier for the GOP.

Someone may find this link interesting: http://www.scribd.com/doc/50413003/Malone-Mathis-Story.  In this article, a sitting Democrat member of the House actually admits that he had the lines of his district on the new map so that he wouldn't have an opponent in the upcoming elections. There's been a lot of, shall we say, curious features about the House Democrats' map. Such as, districts in the Delta region which has lost population roughly equivalent to two House districts being stretched a bit to the east so that region wouldn't lose seats, while the Hattiesburg area, which is growing and is much more Republican-leaning, isn't gaining seats as would be expected.

Here are the current and House-propsed maps if anyone is interested:

Current: http://www.scribd.com/doc/49975345/2002-House-map
Proposed: http://www.scribd.com/doc/49975251/House-2011-proposal

Edit: BTW, a lot of information about the redistricting battle can be found here: http://majorityinms.com/. I know some will probably complain about the site being Republican-leaning, but they have been keeping close tabs on the process. If anyone has any interest in the subject, you can probably at least find some links you'll find interesting.

[Mississippi Political Freak]

Actually, there is one other thing I should probably add. I don't know why I didn't think to put this in before. The redistricting battle may well be what determines the outcome of the House elections this year in Mississippi. If McCoy gets his way, that may be enough to hold the House for the Dems. But, if the GOP wins this battle or they run in current districts this year and run in new districts next year, that makes things considerably easier for the GOP.

Someone may find this link interesting: http://www.scribd.com/doc/50413003/Malone-Mathis-Story.  In this article, a sitting Democrat member of the House actually admits that he had the lines of his district on the new map so that he wouldn't have an opponent in the upcoming elections. There's been a lot of, shall we say, curious features about the House Democrats' map. Such as, districts in the Delta region which has lost population roughly equivalent to two House districts being stretched a bit to the east so that region wouldn't lose seats, while the Hattiesburg area, which is growing and is much more Republican-leaning, isn't gaining seats as would be expected.

Here are the current and House-propsed maps if anyone is interested:

Current: http://www.scribd.com/doc/49975345/2002-House-map
Proposed: http://www.scribd.com/doc/49975251/House-2011-proposal

Edit: BTW, a lot of information about the redistricting battle can be found here: http://majorityinms.com/. I know some will probably complain about the site being Republican-leaning, but they have been keeping close tabs on the process. If anyone has any interest in the subject, you can probably at least find some links you'll find interesting.

I strongly agree.  It's good for political geeks like us to look at sites that hosts exclusive state legislative election no matter its political stripe.  I also regularly read into the Majority in Mississippi site.  On Florida, I also read Sunshine Statge News, a conservative site that contains one-stop information articles on all of Florida's state legislative races every now and then.  At a broader level, I also recommend Red Racing Horses, right-leaning equivalent of the Swing State Project, a well-renowned if left-leaning election informal central; although the former is more focused on federal elections so far.

BTW: Nice to meet a fellow Mississippi-based poster!

[rbt48]

I just noticed that two more Louisiana Democratic state legislators jumped ship, one in the Senate and the other in the House.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Chandler
The Senate is now 21R, 18D.

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/3769860428dd4288aa3a8905a0fa1612/LA--Lawmaker-Party-Switch/
The House is now 53R, 46D, 4I, 2 vacant.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I just noticed that two more Louisiana Democratic state legislators jumped ship, one in the Senate and the other in the House.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Chandler
The Senate is now 21R, 18D.

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/3769860428dd4288aa3a8905a0fa1612/LA--Lawmaker-Party-Switch/
The House is now 53R, 46D, 4I, 2 vacant.

You're way behind the times, the latest Senator to switch parties is Norby Chabert, who was just elected two years ago. The Democrats are down to 17 seats. What I'm curious to find out is how many white Democrats will be left in the Senate come 2012; currently (and obviously this is subject to change) they have 9 of the 17 seats.