Will Likud Joe be booted from the caucus in 2009?

[Brittain33]

Booted?  Unlikely.

Democrats should want to keep him around in case things fall apart in the 2010 elections.

It seems like a mutual divorce at this point. If the Republicans look ascendent after 2010, Lieberman will jump anyway. Also, he'll be a lame duck, so he wouldn't owe the Democrats anything and would be in full spite mode.

[Brittain33]

What everyone seems to forget is that in the U.S. Senate, 50 votes is not the sole hurdle that matters.  Democrats need Lieberman to stay on their side for veto overrides (maybe?), ending filibusters (especially if McConnell gets re-elected), and passing controversial legislation that they'd rather not have their vulnerable freshmen voting in favor of.

What you're not acknowledging is that Lieberman does as he pleases regardless of what the Democrats say, and isn't on our side for filibusters and veto overrides now. You're talking as if Lieberman's behavior depends on whether or not the Democrats keep him in the caucus or not. Too late; he's already left the reservation. At this point, Lieberman is getting more out of his caucus membership than the Democrats are. He's got his spite trip against the Democrats. Stop blaming the victim, the many Democratic senators who were loyal to Lieberman in his primary and either loyal to him or neutral in the general election, only to have him spit in their faces.

[Brittain33]

A more interesting question is whether he'll run for reelection or is banking his entire Career on McCain getting elected and becoming a cabinet member.

There is simply no way he runs for reelection. He campaigned in 2006 by running ads saying he wanted to bring the war to an end and promising to support the Democratic caucus and presidential candidate. He can't do that twice.

[Brittain33]

Unless Lieberman actively campaigns against one of his Senate Democratic colleagues or donates to the NRSC, I see no reason for the Democrats to kick him out of their caucus.

I would argue that he has done so by actively campaigning against Sen. Obama for President, and he is campaigning at cross-purposes to the DSC by hosting a fundraiser for Sen. Collins in a race where the DSC is pledged to raise money for her competitor. Isn't it very unusual for a senator to not just campaign but raise money for a member of the other caucus in good standing, particularly when they aren't friends from the same state like Wyden and Smith?

In fact, it his attacks on Obama and campaigning against him this summer that seem to have tipped the leadership against him. He's taking on one of their own. That hurts.

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He's gone further than simply supporting McCain. His support for a good friend need not extend to him attacking Barack Obama as deficient in the areas where he thinks McCain is awesome.