Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Brittain33]

Chris Smith and Tom Emmer will likely be joining Andy Harris, Mark Amodei, Greg Walden, and Steve Pearce's replacement in an exclusive club very soon.

I wonder if people still think Collin Peterson's going to lose next year because muh Trump surge.

[Brittain33]

PPP finds Trump at 46/47 in South Carolina CD 1, which he won 54-40 (and Romney won 58-40).

https://www.postandcourier.com/cunningham-st-district-poll/pdf_60d4f8e6-3431-11e8-8249-6361aacaeb48.html

Bad signs for him abound.

Reminder that Linda Ketner, an out lesbian, almost won this seat in 2008.

[Brittain33]

Trump's at 40.1% in the polling aggregate at 538.  We're now less than two weeks from the point in time where Carter went as low as 40.0% in his polling aggregate at the equivalent time in his presidency.  So Trump could conceivably soon be able to say that at least one other president was less popular than him at this point in his presidency.

Carter is indeed the best historical analogy anyone could use for Trump, minus the sociopathy and pathological lying.

And the fact that they aren't comparable whatsoever as human beings.

Carter:Trump::Coakley:Moore

[Brittain33]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

Trump's best result in this survey in a very long time.

Given this was the same week as that terrible performance for Lesko, I’m not too worried.

[Brittain33]

Serious question here.

Is it possible, that Trump does so much better in rural/suburban areas, that some polls, not all but some, can oversample the urban vote?

In other words, if I did a poll of 100 people in Ohio, but 75 out of 100 were in Cuyahoga County, you would get a dramatically less-favorable result for Trump than if I evenly polled throughout all the counties in the state.

Is that possibly a factor? I get the impression his approval rating is always slightly higher than the polls show. He polls very, very strangely.

The thrashing Republican candidates have taken in the special elections for Congress and in legislative elections in Va where suburbs flip from Republican to Democratic and turnout in rural areas craters provides evidence that Trump is doing badly even in places you might hope he was doing well.

[Brittain33]

POLITICO reports that Trump's rise in recent days has not just come from North Korea but also because of Kanye West's comments in favour of Trump and questioning the "slavish mindset" of Blacks ...

Support for Trump among Black men doubled after Kanye's comments and among Blacks in total it's also up significantly in the Reuters poll:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/04/trump-kanye-african-american-poll-numbers-569166

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/donald-trump-thanks-kanye-west-for-boost-in-approval-rating-w519854

That's good, it means it's totally meaningless for midterm election results.

[Brittain33]

Of course their LV screen could be really tight.

Or oriented to a 2014 electorate.

[Brittain33]

I see some Republicans temporarily forgot about the tax cut again. They’ll remember a few more times before November.

[Brittain33]

The economy had recovered substantially by 2014 in many parts of the country and it didn't help Obama one bit.

[Brittain33]

PPP:

Approve - 39%
Disprove - 54%

No change.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/PPP_Release_National_61318.pdf

Great, so this PPP poll is the exact reverse of "Trump doing less badly, GCB still bad for Republicans" polls we saw in the last few weeks.

[Brittain33]

CBS News poll: Only a third of Americans (and 68% of Republicans) approve of the way Trump handled the Helsinki summit.

Overall: 32/55

D: 8/83
R: 68/21
I: 29/53

That 68 is relatively low for republicans, right?

Very low. 

That's like George W. Bush approval among Rs in 2008 low.

[Brittain33]

Trump approval at 47% in CA-49, where he only received 42% of the vote.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/internal-poll-harkey-has-slight-lead-over-levin-in-californias-49th-district

Matches other polls from tossup California districts that show Trump gaining support since the election.

bro it even says "internal" in the URL.

[Brittain33]

While it's true the economy now is absolutely nothing like what we had in 2008, and the tariffs are still only hitting a few bits of it, many people consider more than just their economic status when deciding their well-being. This is the "What's the matter with Kansas?" problem in reverse. People who have good jobs are still distraught over what's happening to people of color, immigrants, and women in society since 2016, let alone the rule of law and America's standing in the world.

[Brittain33]

Quinnipiac:

58% Disapprove (51% Strongly) (+3)
38% Approve (28% Strongly) (-2)

Source

This poll makes me happy, but Trump seems to have a bedrock of 38% support for almost every poll even slightly related to him.

The deplorables will never give up, they can only be outvoted.