Name a current Atlas trope that really, really, really won't age well

[Orser67]

Trump has a >50% chance of re-election is the big one for me.

Also:

-Likely R FL
-Lean R WI
-AZ will vote significantly to the left of WI
-MI as a key swing state
-NV and especially NH as totally uncompetitive
-Candidate quality is easily predictable 1+ year from election
-Ukrainegate will hurt Biden in the Dem primary
-Everyone who isn't Warren and Biden should just drop out now
-The Democratic convention will be contested (not a trope now afaik but it will probably pop back up)
-In general, too much certainty as to what the map will look like

[Orser67]

I honestly think it’s laughable that GA still isn’t considered a top-tier battleground state by most people.

Obviously it's because Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 48.8%, even lower than their ceiling of 49.93% in Florida.

48.8% and 49.93%

in a D+8/D+9 year.

You say this mockingly, but the fact that Democrats lost an open seat gubernatorial race in a great national environment in the election election cycle immediately preceding 2020 is a very strong piece of evidence that GA isn't quite a top-tier swing state yet.

[Orser67]

Here's one: Tipping point Wisconsin.

That state is so hard to read, but there are a number of really bad signs for him:
1. A suppressed Dem vote in 2016 due to assumptions of a Hillary victory
2. GOP Congressional candidates distancing themselves in 2018 campaigns
3. The Dairy crisis
4. His approvals are worse than the they are nationwide.
5. It's Wisconsin. They defy logic.

If WI moves to the left, then what's your tipping point state? PA?

[Orser67]

Here's one: Tipping point Wisconsin.

That state is so hard to read, but there are a number of really bad signs for him:
1. A suppressed Dem vote in 2016 due to assumptions of a Hillary victory
2. GOP Congressional candidates distancing themselves in 2018 campaigns
3. The Dairy crisis
4. His approvals are worse than the they are nationwide.
5. It's Wisconsin. They defy logic.

If WI moves to the left, then what's your tipping point state? PA?

Most likely tipping point states other than Wisconsin:
1. Pennsylvania
2. Arizona
3. Florida

My gut says that in a very close election, WI trends left, but if it's a comfortable win for the Democrats, WI will be the tipping point yet again.

But my WI predictions have been wrong more than any other state. In 2004 it was the only state I got wrong. And I lived in Wisconsin for 18 years. Anyone who says they know what's going to happen there is lying.

I would be very happy if you turned out to be right. I think WI not being close to the tipping point state would put Republicans in a terrible position, since they'd likely have to hold AZ+FL+GA and win either PA or MI, where I think Democrats have a significant advantage.