DeSantis has made himself completely unappealing to most independent voters, particularly those in suburbia. Nominating DeSantis does not help the GOP in suburban Atlanta and Pheonix. It doesn't help the trend towards the Democrats in North Carolina. It doesn't help any in eastern Pennsylvania. The cultural issues DeSantis has made himself famous for have more opponents than proponents outside of Florida, and he's even more tied to those issues than Trump. Trump is unpopular because of his bigotry and bread and butter issues.
Either 2028 after two terms of Biden/Harris, due to a combination of an 8 year itch, Harris being the nominee, and the GOP nominee being enough of an improvement (at least on the surface) from Trump, or 2036 after two Democratic terms starting in 2028 (which happens after a Biden loss in 2024, with the GOP incumbent losing in 28).
I would agree, except it depends who the GOP nominates.
If they nominate someone like say Larry Hogan or Chris Sununu who is completely divorced from Trumpism, I think they could win big because they appeal to independents and in Hogan's case, moderate Democrats.
If they nominate someone like say Nikki Haley or Tim Scott who has limited MAGA appeal but more appeal to traditional Republicans and a few independents, sure they could get to 50% of the national popular vote.
I think any MAGA candidates like Trump, DeSantis, Hawley, or Cruz has a ceiling of around 47-48%.
It's pretty simple. Republicans will win the popular vote when they get an alternative to MAGA or fix MAGA.
The last several years have been an repudiation of MAGA at least as much as it has been for Mainstream Democrats. The challenges and "opportunities" for special interests today SHOULD favor the neocon-evangelical coalition coming back to power. The supply shortages could be responded to by the extreme classical liberalism, the current global unrest can be answered by neoconservatism, and the overturn of Roe makes Evangelical Nationalism a better lodestone than "Populist" Nationalism.
I see a Bush clone like Rubio or Cruz being popular before I see Trump or a Trump clone like Dennnis becoming popular.
This does not mean the Republicans won't go a MAGA direction and win in 2024, but if it did happen, it will be either because they got another really good EV/PV split or that Democrats have become at least as unpopular as Republicans were during W's 2nd term and so whoever they put up there won by the virtue that they didn't have a D next to their name.
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