The next Republican to win the popular vote will be...

[President Johnson]

Since 1988, Republicans only once won the national popular vote for president, when Dubya was reelected in 2004. Whenever the next Republican wins it, do you think it's going to be a challenger seeking a first term in office, or an incumbent president winning a second term?

I'd say an incumbent winning reelection, since presidents tend to win with a larger margin and incumbency is a big factor.

(Trump 2024 would count as challenger here, though I don't think he'd win the popular vote, even with an Electoral College victory.)

[Matty]

ron d

[dw93]

Either 2028 after two terms of Biden/Harris, due to a combination of an 8 year itch, Harris being the nominee, and the GOP nominee being enough of an improvement (at least on the surface) from Trump, or 2036 after two Democratic terms starting in 2028 (which happens after a Biden loss in 2024, with the GOP incumbent losing in 28).

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

It’s been longer since a Republican won it as a challenger (1980), so I’ll say incumbent winning re-election.

[OSR stands with Israel]

DeSantis in 2024

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think Republicans win the popular vote in 2024

[Ferguson97]

Challenger, because I think that we're going to see a medium-term trend of presidents re-elected by smaller margins and one-term presidents.

[Xing]

Probably the next Republican to win re-election as an incumbent, so I'd say 2032 is a possibility if Biden wins re-election.

[Person Man]

If the country doesn't start recovering from the pandemic, the Ukraine situation becomes a massive failure, or some other disaster and attack rapidly unfolds, I can see even Trump getting the NPV in 2024. If that doesn't happen I don't think they are winning it until 2036.

I definitely think with a Democratic incumbent, the NPV winner will win in 2024.

[TodayJunior]

Whoever can do the following:

1. Win Texas by double digits (doubtful - those days are done)
2. Win Florida by high single digits (only DeSantis)
3. Surpass 40% in California (very doubtful)
4. Surpass 40% in New York (possible, but doubtful)

Basically Romney levels of suburban support + MAGA 2020 turnout. Consider me skeptical this happens anytime soon.

[Del Tachi]

DeSantis in 2024

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

DeSantis in 2024

LOL

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Anything is possible, but this happening in 2024 isn't probable. The most likely scenario would have to involve low voter turnout in CA and NY.

Also the youngest voters in 2024 haven't lived in a world where the republican won the popular vote.

Anyone under 40 hasn’t seen them win it as a challenger.

[MABA 2020]

Republicans are totally comfortable with the EC enabling minority rule, winning the PV is not a priority at the moment for them so it won't happen until the EC stops enabling them, maybe if Texas goes blue in the 2030's they'll finally have to expand their appeal with a more moderate challenger, that's when they'll next win the PV.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Republicans are totally comfortable with the EC enabling minority rule, winning the PV is not a priority at the moment for them so it won't happen until the EC stops enabling them, maybe if Texas goes blue in the 2030's they'll finally have to expand their appeal with a more moderate challenger, that's when they'll next win the PV.

The EC rewards winning states (and votes) from a wide range of places and regions in the country. The overall popular vote itself is less relevant than where you actually get those votes. The GOP has a relative advantage there under Trump coalitions, while they were at a disadvantage in the Obama-era ones.
I agree that the GOP will broaden their appeal in those circumstances and likely win the PV.

[MABA 2020]

Republicans are totally comfortable with the EC enabling minority rule, winning the PV is not a priority at the moment for them so it won't happen until the EC stops enabling them, maybe if Texas goes blue in the 2030's they'll finally have to expand their appeal with a more moderate challenger, that's when they'll next win the PV.

The EC rewards winning states (and votes) from a wide range of places and regions in the country. The overall popular vote itself is less relevant than where you actually get those votes. The GOP has a relative advantage there under Trump coalitions, while they were at a disadvantage in the Obama-era ones.
I agree that the GOP will broaden their appeal in those circumstances and likely win the PV.

The EC empowers states like Montana and weakens states like California, basically rural votes matter more than urban votes, which is nothing but good for the GOP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Republicans are totally comfortable with the EC enabling minority rule, winning the PV is not a priority at the moment for them so it won't happen until the EC stops enabling them, maybe if Texas goes blue in the 2030's they'll finally have to expand their appeal with a more moderate challenger, that's when they'll next win the PV.

The EC rewards winning states (and votes) from a wide range of places and regions in the country. The overall popular vote itself is less relevant than where you actually get those votes. The GOP has a relative advantage there under Trump coalitions, while they were at a disadvantage in the Obama-era ones.
I agree that the GOP will broaden their appeal in those circumstances and likely win the PV.

The EC empowers states like Montana and weakens states like California, basically rural votes matter more than urban votes, which is nothing but good for the GOP.

The EC provides at least as much of a penalty to those whose support is strongly concentrated in one region with blowout margins (like the Democrats under the post-Civil War party system till 1932).
This could be seen in 2012 as well. Romney won blowout margins in many places in the West and did well in the South, but Obama was firmly in control in the tipping point states.

[I’m not Stu]

Wouldn't DeSantis do worse in California than Trump?

[Skill and Chance]

Republicans are totally comfortable with the EC enabling minority rule, winning the PV is not a priority at the moment for them so it won't happen until the EC stops enabling them, maybe if Texas goes blue in the 2030's they'll finally have to expand their appeal with a more moderate challenger, that's when they'll next win the PV.

The EC rewards winning states (and votes) from a wide range of places and regions in the country. The overall popular vote itself is less relevant than where you actually get those votes. The GOP has a relative advantage there under Trump coalitions, while they were at a disadvantage in the Obama-era ones.
I agree that the GOP will broaden their appeal in those circumstances and likely win the PV.

The EC empowers states like Montana and weakens states like California, basically rural votes matter more than urban votes, which is nothing but good for the GOP.

The EC provides at least as much of a penalty to those whose support is strongly concentrated in one region with blowout margins (like the Democrats under the post-Civil War party system till 1932).
This could be seen in 2012 as well. Romney won blowout margins in many places in the West and did well in the South, but Obama was firmly in control in the tipping point states.

Yes, it's not at all impossible for the EC to favor the urban coalition.  If Dems got their L.A./Chicago/NYC margins in Miami, Houston, and Dallas that would be the case today.

[Schiff for Senate]

ron d

I think Republicans win the popular vote in 2024

DeSantis in 2024

DeSantis in 2024

Since the 1980s, the only time the GOP has won the popular vote presidentially was in a 'rally around the flag' election where the Republicans only won because of patriotic fervour and wanting to be united after 9/11 (and even then, Bush won the PV by just 2 points). I cannot see DeathSantis winning the PV in 2024 - he might win, but if he does, he'll be the 3rd president of the 2000s to have been elected despite losing the PV.

[I’m not Stu]

If DeSantis is the nominee in 2024, won't he do worse in California than Trump did in both 2016 and 2020?

[BushKerry04]

ron d

DeSantis in 2024

DeSantis has made himself completely unappealing to most independent voters, particularly those in suburbia. Nominating DeSantis does not help the GOP in suburban Atlanta and Pheonix. It doesn't help the trend towards the Democrats in North Carolina. It doesn't help any in eastern Pennsylvania. The cultural issues DeSantis has made himself famous for have more opponents than proponents outside of Florida, and he's even more tied to those issues than Trump. Trump is unpopular because of his bigotry and bread and butter issues.

Either 2028 after two terms of Biden/Harris, due to a combination of an 8 year itch, Harris being the nominee, and the GOP nominee being enough of an improvement (at least on the surface) from Trump, or 2036 after two Democratic terms starting in 2028 (which happens after a Biden loss in 2024, with the GOP incumbent losing in 28).

I would agree, except it depends who the GOP nominates.

If they nominate someone like say Larry Hogan or Chris Sununu who is completely divorced from Trumpism, I think they could win big because they appeal to independents and in Hogan's case, moderate Democrats.

If they nominate someone like say Nikki Haley or Tim Scott who has limited MAGA appeal but more appeal to traditional Republicans and a few independents, sure they could get to 50% of the national popular vote.

I think any MAGA candidates like Trump, DeSantis, Hawley, or Cruz has a ceiling of around 47-48%.

[Person Man]

ron d

DeSantis in 2024

DeSantis has made himself completely unappealing to most independent voters, particularly those in suburbia. Nominating DeSantis does not help the GOP in suburban Atlanta and Pheonix. It doesn't help the trend towards the Democrats in North Carolina. It doesn't help any in eastern Pennsylvania. The cultural issues DeSantis has made himself famous for have more opponents than proponents outside of Florida, and he's even more tied to those issues than Trump. Trump is unpopular because of his bigotry and bread and butter issues.

Either 2028 after two terms of Biden/Harris, due to a combination of an 8 year itch, Harris being the nominee, and the GOP nominee being enough of an improvement (at least on the surface) from Trump, or 2036 after two Democratic terms starting in 2028 (which happens after a Biden loss in 2024, with the GOP incumbent losing in 28).

I would agree, except it depends who the GOP nominates.

If they nominate someone like say Larry Hogan or Chris Sununu who is completely divorced from Trumpism, I think they could win big because they appeal to independents and in Hogan's case, moderate Democrats.

If they nominate someone like say Nikki Haley or Tim Scott who has limited MAGA appeal but more appeal to traditional Republicans and a few independents, sure they could get to 50% of the national popular vote.

I think any MAGA candidates like Trump, DeSantis, Hawley, or Cruz has a ceiling of around 47-48%.

It's pretty simple. Republicans will win the popular vote when they get an alternative to MAGA or fix MAGA.

The last several years have been an repudiation of MAGA at least as much as it has been for Mainstream Democrats. The challenges and "opportunities" for special interests today SHOULD favor the neocon-evangelical coalition coming back to power. The supply shortages could be responded to by the extreme classical liberalism, the current global unrest can be answered by neoconservatism, and the overturn of Roe makes Evangelical Nationalism a better lodestone than "Populist" Nationalism.

I see a Bush clone like Rubio or Cruz being popular before I see Trump or a Trump clone like Dennnis becoming popular.

This does not mean the Republicans won't go a MAGA direction and win in 2024, but if it did happen, it will be either because they got another really good EV/PV split or that Democrats have become at least as unpopular as Republicans were during W's 2nd term and so whoever they put up there won by the virtue that they didn't have a D next to their name.

[BG-NY]

ron d

DeSantis in 2024

DeSantis has made himself completely unappealing to most independent voters, particularly those in suburbia. Nominating DeSantis does not help the GOP in suburban Atlanta and Pheonix. It doesn't help the trend towards the Democrats in North Carolina. It doesn't help any in eastern Pennsylvania. The cultural issues DeSantis has made himself famous for have more opponents than proponents outside of Florida, and he's even more tied to those issues than Trump. Trump is unpopular because of his bigotry and bread and butter issues.

Either 2028 after two terms of Biden/Harris, due to a combination of an 8 year itch, Harris being the nominee, and the GOP nominee being enough of an improvement (at least on the surface) from Trump, or 2036 after two Democratic terms starting in 2028 (which happens after a Biden loss in 2024, with the GOP incumbent losing in 28).

I would agree, except it depends who the GOP nominates.

If they nominate someone like say Larry Hogan or Chris Sununu who is completely divorced from Trumpism, I think they could win big because they appeal to independents and in Hogan's case, moderate Democrats.

If they nominate someone like say Nikki Haley or Tim Scott who has limited MAGA appeal but more appeal to traditional Republicans and a few independents, sure they could get to 50% of the national popular vote.

I think any MAGA candidates like Trump, DeSantis, Hawley, or Cruz has a ceiling of around 47-48%.

Appealing to independents by...abandoning the 9 million+ Obama-Trump voters to chase 1 million Romney-Clinton voters? What on Earth?

[TodayJunior]

If DeSantis is the nominee in 2024, won't he do worse in California than Trump did in both 2016 and 2020?

All things considered, it’s hard to see any Republican fall below 30%, even in a state like California (using 2016 as a benchmark). That is, unless he campaigns on cutting off CA and letting it float away. I wouldn’t put it past him to have his minions in a hypothetical GOP-controlled legislature draft such a thing. He’s all about retribution.

I’m kidding on that first part btw but the thought is there I’m sure.