Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

There are reports that 5 Russian helicopters got shot down today

Remember what I said about slav squatters with Stingers?

It might be as impressive as a Florida Man.

[Person Man]

I have to agree with this. Russia's plan feels rushed and improvised. It seems like it was assumed Ukrainians would just give up because well....we're Russia. Putin even encouraged Ukrainian soldiers to lay down their arms in his declaration of war speech. Today, Russian officials also floated terms the Ukrainians would need to accept in exchange for a ceasefire. Why would Ukraine want a ceasefire when they haven't faced any kind of defeat yet?  

https://twitter.com/DenisonBe/status/1497011945114947587?s=20&t=dQA8OssolY4q...

Putin can go suck on a railroad stake.

[Person Man]

While i don't often agree with all pro-Ukraine statements, it's becoming clear to me who in this case is the agressor. Putin lives in a 10th world century ideal where he thinks Kiev belongs to Russia because it's where the Russian civilisation started 1000 years ago. What happened in the past, happened. I think it is time to move on. We live in the 21st century. If every country wants to take back what was once supposed to be theirs, you're gonna have a lot of wars, and Russia theirselves will have a lot of wars too, because Japan & Finland also have territories in Russia which was actually theirs.

I believe in diplomacy and in peace, but it is increasingly becoming clear Putin doesn't care for that at all, and that he also doesn't care about human suffering, as long they're no Russians. Putin is proving right now why NATO is needed. I wasn't supportive of NATO but Putin has proven that we need NATO after all, even today. I wasn't supportive of NATO but that certainly changed in the past weeks.

I believe in diplomacy and peace too, but diplomacy and peace after Georgia 2008 created this today. Diplomacy and peace after Crimea 2014 created this today. My complaint about Western civilization classical liberals (the old definition of liberal, not the American one) is they all believe in things like diplomacy, peace, and democracy, but don't you dare ask them to fight for and defend those things. They are soft people and soft people don't do well in a hard world.

One thing that should be taken from today by everyone is that the world never changes. There will always be assholes running countries, there will always be contests for power. You're a blind idiot to think that's all in the past and to think that defense expenditure is pointless. Just today, China sent 9 fighter jets into Taiwan airspace. Could they do a mission there shortly? Doubtful, but damn it'd be good timing with a distracted world, and there would go a lot of countries' considerable amounts of their semiconductor supply -the steel production of the 21st century.

We should try to do what we can to make the world a safer place.

[Person Man]

oh no, we can't have that!  Germans are a soft, weak people who aren't known for their business acumen.  The world must protect the German economy!  If a few tens of thousands of Ukrainians must die, well that's a small price to pay to keep the German economy ticking smoothly.

I think is less about Germans being "weak" versus Ukraine is not a core issue for Germany.  Russia will get hit badly on the medium run by these sanctions yet Russian elites are behind their course of action.  The reason why is because they view Ukraine as part of their core national interests.  Swap out Ukraine for New Zealand and Putin did the same thing he would be soon put in the nuthouse by his followers.

This is why I have always been for the Great Power sphere-of-influences approach for international Great Power competitions.  Here I am 100% aligned with Putin in terms of what the international political model should look like. There should be a concert of Great Powers that make clear to each other what their core interets are and what they are not.  There will still be competition and conflict but the payoff matrix is clear to everyone.

Clearly, I do not approve of what Putin did.  He basically retroactively drew some red lines and claim that NATO and Ukraine crossed them.  It is clear he wanted to do this back in 2014 and was too weak to do so and think he is strong enough today to do it.  He should have at least given an ultimatum with a due day so all parties can negotiate with Russia knowing what is at stake and the consequences.  Putin kept on saying he will not invade and then claim his opponents cross a retroactively constructed red line and attacked.  He is not really obeying his own principles which I do agree with.

I don't know about any of that.  All I know is that if an entity can punish Putin right now, but doesn't because it might hurt their economy, that entity sucks and should be punished by the rest of us.  Perhaps we should start with sanctions.

Is that what Putinists and Nationalists want? It’s amazing on paper but if it worked, the 20th century would have never happened.

[Person Man]

What a joke. You treat us like dogsh**t for years, and then you expect us to do your bidding? It's as if the Americans still think it's 1992 and they have the power to dictate terms to everyone in the world. We may help out in the end but we most assuredly will extract a price from you for it.

U.S. Officials Repeatedly Urged China to Help Avert War in Ukraine

WASHINGTON — Over three months, senior Biden administration officials held half a dozen urgent meetings with top Chinese officials in which the Americans presented intelligence showing Russia’s troop buildup around Ukraine and beseeched the Chinese to tell Russia not to invade, according to U.S. officials.

Each time, the Chinese officials, including the foreign minister and the ambassador to the United States, rebuffed the Americans, saying they did not think an invasion was in the works. After one diplomatic exchange in December, U.S. officials got intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow, telling the Russians that the United States was trying to sow discord — and that China would not try to impede Russian plans and actions, the officials said.

The previously unreported talks between American and Chinese officials show how the Biden administration tried to use intelligence findings and diplomacy to persuade a superpower it views as a growing adversary to stop the invasion of Ukraine, and how that nation, led by President Xi Jinping, persistently sided with Russia even as the evidence of Moscow’s plans for a military offensive grew over the winter.

What people like you, Putin, and all of the nationalists, libertarians, and socialists say isn't unreasonable and it would greatly benefit the United States to not have spend so much money to police the world but the alternatives are worse than the problem at this point.

[Person Man]

If these numbers are real indeed, that might explain why Putin no longer seems to rule out peace talks after also receiving pressure from the PRC. That said, a ceasefire can and should only occur mutually.

Perhaps Zelensky can go as far as promising a neutral status of Ukraine for the time being. Putin won't rule Russia forever, he's already close to 70, so Ukraine could join NATO and EU in 10 or 15 years. Not the outcome I would prefer, but better than the loss of so many innocent Ukrainians and a war in Europe.

Sure. I think he should totally take guarantee neutrality until 2035-2037 and to freeze the border at the Minsk Agreement.

[Person Man]

If these numbers are real indeed, that might explain why Putin no longer seems to rule out peace talks after also receiving pressure from the PRC. That said, a ceasefire can and should only occur mutually.

Perhaps Zelensky can go as far as promising a neutral status of Ukraine for the time being. Putin won't rule Russia forever, he's already close to 70, so Ukraine could join NATO and EU in 10 or 15 years. Not the outcome I would prefer, but better than the loss of so many innocent Ukrainians and a war in Europe.

Ukraine being a core Russian issue is going to be true with or without Putin.  The only way for Russia to not act on that would be for Russia to be so weak (like in the 1990s) that it had to focus on internal problems.

I could see it getting to the point where the Russian Federation becomes a vassal to the PRC. ..and for reasons stated above, that might actually be a step up. Winnie the Pooh is an asshole, but he's a sane asshole.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497225270310354949

What is Russia going to say?

"Oh, I accept your term of surrender"

Its just posturing. Putin is still declaring a war agaisnt Nazis right? He can say hes offered peace and when Ukraine rejects becoming a vassal state he'll have, at least in his mind, a carte blanche to do whatever. Already cities in the east are being fully burned in the battle.


https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1497224482829660162

So, best case scenario is that he rides a horse into Kiev, declares himself Czar of Ukraine (metaphorically, of course) and still has to contend with tens of thousands of dead soldiers, tens of millions of new subjects that want to kill him, and land will take years to get to any sort of order....either that or his plan is to do to Ukraine what we did to the Indians. Get rid of many as he can and having his partners start building towns for Russians next to the ruins of the old cities.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/AvivaKlompas/status/1496915617542250496

A King's King.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

I would have to imagine its just posturing. Russia, as far as I know, is not ready for any sort of invasion in Finland. Air strikes will likely see both countries join Nato. How can Russia out maneuver that?

Also:

https://twitter.com/Kivelart/status/1497232550447796224

Maybe they just want to see Jesus really badly.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

And I don't want to read your inane posts, but, that's life, you don't always get what you want.

I am not insane. I actually support Ukraine in this!

Well, that too.

[Person Man]

Time to check world reactions again!

Those Supporting Russia, hereafter to be known as “Sh!+hole Countries”:
-obviously Belarus and all the Russian puppets like Abkhazia
-Artsakh, hey congrats, you actually made me think more kindly of Azerbaijan now
-The Central African Republic, oh yeah, actual neocolonialism in action by Russia here
-Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and special guest Evo Morales! I don’t want to hear a f***ing WORD from the Latin American International Socialist contingent bitching about American imperialism while remaining silent or outright supporting what Russia is doing
-Syria, Iran, and the Houthis, “but what about U.S.-“ F*** off, Putinists
-Myanmar, ‘The spokesperson for Myanmar's State Administration Council, Zaw Min Tun, supported Russia's decision, stating that "Russia was acting to protect its sovereignty" and praised Russia's role in balancing global power” gee that sounds like some posters in this thread, well @$$holes will be @$$holes, speaking of which
-hey look it’s China, f*** them too
-in a reversal of earlier reports, Kazakhstan, not a shocker really
-why it’s Donald Trump!

A Bit Less Overly Pro-Russian But It’s Clear Where They Stand:
-Nigeria, wow Russia and China have been busy in Africa it seems with bribing governments
-Pakistan, visiting Moscow during this crisis to get sweet trade deals, can we please stop pretending these snakes are “major non-NATO allies” already?
-Sri Lanka, literally “both sides” using, clearly doing what China wants
-Bolivia, no condemnation of Russia, but this IS the government that cheered Daniel Ortega’s “re-election” just recently and their statements are weak, plus the opposition is having a field day snarking about this
-Republika Srpska, who could have seen THAT coming?
-and here’s Gerhard Schroeder!

Dishonorable Mentions:
-India, really now Modi, THIS is when you choose to be a dick? You’re de facto on the side of China by doing this you know
-Jair Bolonsaro in Brazil, hilariously his own Vice President disagrees with him on this
-Naftalli Bennett, no condemnation, yes yes the Russian Jews are part of the coalition and more importantly you’re still better than Netanyahu
-Serbia, wow even Hungary is condemning Russia and you sure are looking isolated in Europe, huh?
-plenty of Republicans, I don’t have a count of the traitorous lot
-The Scarsdale Currency Trading Corporation

Lots of Neutrals so far in the developing world, but not all of them!

And The Anti-Russians, oh look it’s most of the parts of the world that don’t suck

In conclusion, F*** Russia and everyone who supports their actions.

Putin's catamites.

[Person Man]

It's hilarious how many here fail to realize that Santander is a liberal just playing a character, especially since he "breaks character" quite often.

Or is it the other way around?

[Person Man]

Incredibly, incredibly based:

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1497320380968669199?s=20&t=d6wbs_jqec92...

We've received so much evidence that Ukraine's people are incredible warriors and patriots. Amazing.

It’s like a modern version of 300.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1497345604816711681?s=20&t=g4bgYhgxLsexV...

How many points is that?

[Person Man]

Petition to unmute BigSerg on this thread to widen perspectives shared

X TheReckoning

He can come back when the fighting  stops.

[Person Man]

The sheer numbers of casualties so far, especially on the Russian side, have been astonishingly violent for this type of war. The waste of life on a tyrant's post-imperial brooding...

This is like Antietam or Gettysburg style casualties almost.

[Person Man]

I wonder if Yanukovych feels any moral confusion right now from his Russian exile or if he really doesn't care about the Ukrainian people

Yanukovych has spent 71 years not caring about the Ukrainian people and isn't starting today.

Yeah, makes sense. His career is over in any case, I imagine if Russia installed him he'd be assassinated.

At this point, any puppet or governor Putin puts on the throne in Kiev will probably be assassinated.

[Person Man]

Is the tank thing legally a war crime?

Yes.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497344191474528258

They’re going in for the kill, they have no value of life. Not even their own.

[Person Man]

TAKE THIS WITH A BUCKET OF SALT

Video reportedly shows an APC getting showered by Molotovs in Kiev

https://twitter.com/DavidRi66650282/status/1497411007865573382

 Good. Kill them all, and let's satan sort them out.

Fight to the last man, woman, and child!

[Person Man]

Lol I am not sure what different would be if Trump was president?

Don’t get me wrong, Biden is a joke no one takes seriously, but Trump instability is what led to the west losing its international credibility and started giving an opening for more people to feel comfortable about confronting it directly.

His likely victory in 2024 would cement the Western downfall and solidify “the new era” of power shift because not even western allies want to live in a Trump-led world. Not that Biden is a strong alternative for the democrats either, but they made their choice of picking any random weirdo just to substitute Trump instead of having an actual plan of strengthening the nation.

US needs to fix its house first to gain credibility back regarding international issues. Otherwise the trend will just keep deepening itself. Trump is the opposite of that.

You might be right.

[Person Man]

I doubt 62% of Americans can point the Ukraine on a map. no offense.

I think it is more about Trump being so unpredictable that Putin would not be able to calculate the odds of cost/benefit effectively and as a result just do nothing and wait until Trump is gone.

It was never going to be easy after Trump left by design. The silver lining is if he won in 2020, who picked up the pieces after him would of had it much, much worse.

[Person Man]

Yes, but that Russia has an awesome military quantity has never been disputed by anybody. The real issue, as even just these past few days have arguably shown, may be quality.

They attacked with prop planes.

[Person Man]

The entire debate in the collective West over SWIFT seems farcical to me.  The argument for doing it is that there can be payment workarounds for Russia to get paid for gas exports.  The core issue is the current set of sanctions will hit Russia only in the medium term and will not deter current Russian action. 

For me, the only real question of hitting Russia in the short term would be "Will Russia be able to sell raw materials to the collective West and get paid for it" Yes or No.  For many in the collective West it is Yes and for others, it is no.   The alliance is not able to confront this simple Yes and No question so the debate moves to technicalities that really do not address this core question.

Of course, Russia has its own race against time.  The need to wind this up within weeks if not days or else problems for them which include sanctions and other factors will begin to catch up to them.

Even if they do occupy the country, that will only be the beginning.