Bachmann wins Iowa straw poll

[Reluctant Republican]

My gut says Paul. He's putting everything into this, and if there's one thing he's good at, it's winning straw polls. In addition, he has experience with Ames before, so he may have a better understanding of what it takes to win(Or not, given his campaign staff was inept last time and I'm not yet sure about this time) Lastly, IIRC his name will be on the top of the ballot.

The big story rightly or wrongly will be Bachmann's second place finish though. Paul will be dismissed and Bachmann will be compared to the insurgent campaign of Mike Huckabee.

[Reluctant Republican]

My gut is going with a Paul win here. He has the best booth and if you take  a look at his fansites(That feels really weird to type) There's intense planning going on to get him a win. IIRC he's already rented several buses.  Plus if there's one thing Paul supporters are experts at, it's winning straw polls. And given how much he spent on the booth, I think he'll probably spend as much as it takes to guarantee victory. A moneybomb the other day based on Ames brought in 550k. Though I'm not sure if that's all to be spent on Iowa and Ames.

That being said, a Bachmann win is still very possible.  But I'll put my non existent reputation on the line and say Paul win win it. I also have to agree that Romney's going to do worse then expected, though I think worse in this case will be 4th or 5th, which he can still spin as mildly positive.

[Reluctant Republican]

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The moneybomb actually brought in 625K and it's all going directly towards Ames.

And if you read his FEC filings, he has already reserved over 100K worth of buses and he will have pick ups in every county for Ames.  In addition, the Grassroots through a PAC they just formed will also have a couple dozen buses lined up bringing in even more supporters.  If you read Ron Paul Forums, you'll see his supporters have been strategizing about winning Ames for almost two years now.

I do indeed read RPF. I even occasionally post there. I was just having a bit of fun at the at times... over zealousness of the Ron Paul supporter.

Those reasons you mentioned are why I think Paul will win this. He's probably prepared for it more then any other candidate. That being said, I remain cautious. I remember back in 2008 I thought Paul was going to win Iowa, that the polls were wrong and neglected to count young voters with cell phones. Reality proved me wrong, and I am worried the hype surrounding Paul at Ames will prove similarly overblown. As Meeker mentioned, he only came in 5th place in 07.

All that being said, everything I've read from Iowa officials says it comes down to a race between Bachmann, Paul, and Pawlenty. That makes me think(and hope) he'll win it.

[Reluctant Republican]

Margin of victory, 152 votes

Votes designated as "scattering:" 162

hmmm....

lol. Conspiracy fail. Those votes are certainly for Palin and others; 'scattering' votes happen in every election with a write-in option.

There was zero "scattering" in the 2007 poll.

IIRC this was the first year the Straw Poll allowed write in's.

Good result for Paul. I'm fairly happy.