2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[GALeftist]

Pretty sure TX-28 will be a Cuellar-Cisneros runoff at this point.

[GALeftist]

Pretty good night overall; Casar is going to the House, Cisneros makes the runoff, and Crockett seems heavily favored in the runoff.

However, THE CUELLAR CRIME FAMILY IS STEALING THIS ELECTION THE MEDIA'S COVERING IT UP

/s obv

[GALeftist]

Does the market know something I don't? Dolan at 5 cents seems absurdly low

[GALeftist]

GOP Woman Power
https://twitter.com/CLFSuperPAC/status/1521684778981986304

GOP Woman Power
https://twitter.com/CLFSuperPAC/status/1521684778981986304

Lol why are you obsessed about "GOP women". Who cares? Let's get good candidates in office instead of focusing on irrelevant things.

You are consistently endorsing or pulling for bad Candidates like Majewski!

Yeah, no, I don't back the idea of "We need as many Republicans as possible and Republican Women too!" because you just reek of electabro basement caucus. I'd rather have a House Majority of 10 with the RIGHT People (ie, great policy on trade, immigration, the family, election integrity, etc) than have a House Majority of 60 with 30 Mitt Romneys. If that's the case, tell me what's the difference between Democrats and Republicans outside of Muh Tax Cutzzz!

So yeah, Simp, leave. We don't need you in the party if you're going to be worshipping at the alter of women because women.

Can someone tell me what this means?

Weirdo Twitter ET Con terminology. Pay it no mind

[GALeftist]

Lamb losing Washington County early vote by 17 points lol

[GALeftist]

so far pa races are going how i expect except for lee. not sure whats happening there

AIPAC happened. Those guys are awful

[GALeftist]

I did not expect for Lamb to get destroyed to this extent everywhere other than Pittsburgh and Philly. It's like everyone but Fetterman forgot to campaign in these areas.

On another note you can really see how Trumpy NEPA is.

[GALeftist]

Ws this evening:

- Fettersweep
- Summer Lee looks to be in a good position
- Jamie McLeod-Skinner preparing to send Schrader to a farm upstate
- Crypto guy BTFOd
- Cawthorn taken out by the deep state
- Mastriano

TBD:

- PA-SEN GOP primary, although I'm at least glad it's in recount territory

[GALeftist]

This is unbelievably tight lol

[GALeftist]

There's still vote left in Delco though,  so is it not really over?

Bunch left in Franklin too. That'll net Oz votes although idk how many

[GALeftist]

Ws this evening:

- Fettersweep
- Summer Lee looks to be in a good position
- Jamie McLeod-Skinner preparing to send Schrader to a farm upstate
- Crypto guy BTFOd
- Cawthorn taken out by the deep state
- Mastriano

TBD:

- PA-SEN GOP primary, although I'm at least glad it's in recount territory

Why is that a W? He's a 'Stop the steal' lunatic who wants to stop Biden from getting PA's electoral votes.

Increases our likelihood of keeping the governor's mansion. Unconvinced that Barletta's hypothetical tenure would have been substantively better and his campaign was a dumpster fire anyway.

[GALeftist]

OK, after that Delco drop, gun to my head I'd rather be Oz with all that Franklin outstanding.

[GALeftist]

I can't decide what I want to happen in PA-SEN. On the one hand I think the Trump meltdown if McCormick comes back on Oz from late counted mail ballots would be hilarious but on the other hand I don't know if the nutjobs will stay home with Mastriano on the ballot.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1528065678091206661

Extreme liberal socialist John Fetterman – the next Radical Liberal Raphael Warnock?

[GALeftist]

How many more Ballots have these fraudulent PA Election Officials to count?

Let's maybe not just assert election officials are fraudulent without any evidence,  okay?

No, I agree. THE MCCORMICK CRIME FAMILY IS STEALING THIS ELECTION! THE MEDIA'S COVERING IT UP! WE WANT OUR FREEDOM FOR THE WORLD!

[GALeftist]

Cuellar about to defraud the good people of TX-28 with falsified Zapata ballots I fear

[GALeftist]

Wow looks like Bordeaux is screwed.

Good riddance.

What's so bad about Bordeaux? I know nothing about her other than she's a Gwinnett County Dem who won 62% of the GA-7 Asian voters polled by AALDEF in Nov 2020.

Blue Dogs delenda est

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1529125971089149953

We love to see it, don't we, folks?

[GALeftist]

Regarding TX-28:

Webb appears to be done reporting. Its turnout is like 14,000 down from 20,000. Let's generalize and say the RGV's turnout falls by about 1/3. Webb is going 71% for Cuellar, up from about 62% for Cuellar in the two candidate vote earlier. Let's generalize and say that Cuellar will get about a 10 point boost in his RGV strongholds (consistent with Jim Hogg numbers). In this case we'd expect:

Starr: turnout 3300, 83 Cuellar - 17 Cisneros, Cuellar nets about 2200 votes
Zapata: turnout 2300, 86 Cuellar - 14 Cisneros, Cuellar nets about 1650 votes
Duval: turnout 1500, 80 Cuellar - 20 Cisneros, Cuellar nets 900 votes

Cisneros has some more favorable precincts in Bexar left, of course, but those margins will probably be measured in the hundreds, not thousands. Unless Cuellar's underperformance is severely undercut elsewhere in the RGV or Cisneros wins Benavides voters in a landslide or something, hard for be to see how Cisneros pulls through.

[GALeftist]

Cisneros has actually been doing better than I had thought was possible with EDay around San Antonio so not ready to call it yet, but I'd still rather be Cuellar

[GALeftist]

I am ready to be hurt by Zapata County again! Cursed land.

I'm guessing Cuellar has a little over a 2,000 vote margin in the bank. It might not be impossible for Cisneros to overcome but it will be very very tough.

[GALeftist]

I am ready to be hurt by Zapata County again! Cursed land.

I'm guessing Cuellar has a little over a 2,000 vote margin in the bank. It might not be impossible for Cisneros to overcome but it will be very very tough.

How could Cuellar get a 2k margin from Zapata?  There were only 1826 Biden votes in the county in 2020.

I'm thinking like 1.2k to 1.6k absolute max.

The race is probably heavily in favor of Cuellar though.

Still votes left in Duval right? If it was just Zapata I'd have it at a true tossup rather than Likely Cuellar rn.

[GALeftist]

Whoa what in the world just dropped in TX-28 lol

[GALeftist]

Oof didn't realize Webb still had votes outstanding. Probably curtains for Cisneros unless something very weird happens.

[GALeftist]

MY HEART CANT TAKE THIS DONT GIVE ME HOPE AAAAA