Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If this swing holds up nationwide in November, we could be looking at 55 Dem seats in the Senate and a 2008-size majoirty in the House.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Such a weird feeling to be on the other side of polling misses for the first time since, like, 2017, but really 2012

It really shouldn’t be surprising.  I’ve been saying ever since Dobbs that polls will likely underestimate Dems this year.  Polling misses are usually due to energized low-propensity voters.  In 2016 and 2020 this was WWC Trumpers.  But in 2022 this will be largely Zoomer women.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So how big of a deal is this win? What was the PVI?

Pretty big deal. The district was Biden + 1.5 and was slightly to the right of teh tipping point on both the new and old lines. It also seems like Ryan could even narrowly beat Bidens + 1.5 margin.

Another important dynamic was the turnout which is really what allowed Ryan to win even as Molinaro overperformed in his hom base of Duthcess County and some rural areas.

Ding Ding Ding
Republicans didn't vote. They will in November.
I do think this disproves the whole idea dems aren't enthusiastic. They are Fired up!

But the scenario where everyone turns out on both sides is still pretty great for Dems.  The reason the in-party usually craters in midterms is that their side is unmotivated.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Palin only won half of Begich’s 2nd choice votes.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Extrapolating this swing compared to the 2020 result suggests we are looking at something like a D+15 national environment.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1568014352514711552

It’s nice to see this data.  But the conclusion doesn’t really follow from it.  If Sarah Palin had finished in 3rd place, she wouldn’t have had 58k votes to distribute to the other candidates.