2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I really hope Peters is able to pull this one out Feeling good about Biden in MI though

Peters is still going to win relatively easily.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why has there been so little coverage of what’s going on in Maine? There’s only 75% reporting and I have no idea where the outstanding ballots are or what kind of ballots the are.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

That's far too early from Gideon and I hope there isn't reason to regret it in the near future.

I don't see the point of this from Gideon. She should at least wait to see if RCV is triggered.

It would seem that way on the surface.  But perhaps people with more information on Maine know that the remaining vote is heavily Republican and that RCV won’t make a difference.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Biden doesnt seem to be doing too good in Allegahny county, is that a concern?

He’s not doing poorly in Allegheny; you are falling for the red mirage.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So if Fox News calls Michigan for Biden, they have to declare him the winner of the presidency, right?  Before every other network!  I wish I knew when the next big MI vote dump was coming so I could tune in for that moment.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why does anyone thing John James still has a chance?  He’s only winning by 14k right now, and Peters makes up at least 10 times that margin just from remaining Wayne County votes.

You could say the same thing about Trump in Pennsylvania.  Biden is winning the absentee votes that have already been counted by 58 points, and this doesn’t even include most of Philly.  Biden might get close to 90% of the outstanding vote, so being down 7% with 15% left to count is should be no problem.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

PA is not a done deal yet.

I have just looked at the figures.

1.067 million postal ballots are left to count (they broke 78-21 Biden so far).

Biden gains a net 608.000 votes from those.

Trump is currently ahead by 440.000

So far, so good.

Biden wins by 168.000 in the end.

But 8% of PAs 8000+ Election Day precincts are also not counted yet.

Those account for an additional 338.000 votes.

Election Day votes went 66-33 Trump so far.

Trump nets 111.000 votes from those.

Biden still comes out 57.000 ahead, but there’s room for bigger movement.

The outstanding vote is not evenly distributed across the state.  It is much more heavily weighted toward Democratic areas (especially Philly) than Republican ones.  So Biden should actually do much better than 78-21 among remaining absenteed.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

At this point its much more about what Trump can't do anymore than what Biden can do.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's weird that it seems the polls in Maine were basically correct in the presidential race, but way off in the Senate race.  

If the current results hold (with 88% reporting), the 538 model was off by only 1 point in their presidential projection, but by 9 points in their Senate projection.  

It's almost like the opposite of a shy Trump voter, where the Trump voters were honest but a lot of Biden/Collins voters were lying.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does anyone have a sense of whether the outstanding vote numbers in North Carolina are correct (at least as reported by NYT)?  If they are, it really does look to me like Biden still has a chance there.

Edit: Back of the envelope math, Biden would need to win about 65% of the remaining vote.  But it looks like the remaining vote is overwhelmingly in Democratic counties.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does anyone have a sense of whether the outstanding vote numbers in North Carolina are correct (at least as reported by NYT)?  If they are, it really does look to me like Biden still has a chance there.

I think there's only 117K requested absentees total that are still out statewide and could potentially be mailed back with an 11/3 postmark.  If that is true, Trump's lead is almost completely safe.

The R challenger is leading the D incumbent for Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court by just 4K statewide right now, so that will likely flip with the late absentees.

OK, so they NYT numbers are wrong?  Because they stand at 95% reporting, which would be ~250-300k outstanding ballots, including ~30k each in Mecklenburg and Wake.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I really want to leave this limbo where Biden has a 90=95% chance but no one can say for sure. The online narrative is going to be extremely stupid/negative until then.

Unless most of your uncertainty is rogue court decisions, Biden seems well over 95% to win to me.  He's about 95% in PA alone, and probably >80% to win the AZ+NV backstop even if that fails, and this doesn't even include GA or NC.  I'd say Biden is close to 99% to win a fair vote count at this point.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What if Biden gets the Sabato map?

It would be pretty crazy if Sabato had a perfect presidential map considering how much of a disaster his congressional picks were.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why was Georgia the only state where the polls seem to be accurate?

Seems like they were also pretty accurate in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are we supposed to get a big Georgia update right about now?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does it seem a big problem that the remaining states are taking so long to count?  I feel like the longer it drags out the more chance of Trump trying something stupid/inciting violence.

It’s been less than a day, under very unusual voting circumstances.
Two years ago, it took three weeks for California to finish counting all their congressional votes.  Now that’s too long!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don’t understand how anyone can have any doubt about Biden winning PA.  Every single VBM update we get is consistent with a comfortable Biden victory.  Just because we haven’t had a major update in the middle of the night doesn’t magically mean that Trump has somehow gained ground.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

America is like a third world country in terms of counting ballots. In Spain we cast over 24 million ballots last time and 99% were counted within three hours of polls closing. Why does it take so long?

What percentage of votes in Spain are vote-by-mail?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324401527663058944

We've been trying to do this for the last four years, Donald.  Looks like we finally succeeded.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

You hate to see it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremymbarr/status/1324400156758953984?s=20

I tuned in to Fox & Friends for about 15 minutes yesterday just to see whether the right was freaking out yet, and saw them interview Mishkin about the ballot counting process.  It was exactly like what I imagine Anthony Fauci briefing Trump about coronavirus must be like.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1324407942192472064

Oof, this hurts

It doesn't actually seem like Texas appreciably trended blue this year.  He lost the state by 6 but  it appears he won the national PV by 4-5, so still 10-11 points right of the nation.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Hopefully this election will convince us that vote-by-mail is not the answer.  We should be building the infrastructure to enable internet voting through block-chain.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What happened in Pennsylvania?  It seems like they were counting so fast yesterday, but we've gotten almost nothing more today and it's almost 3pm.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Trumpland
https://twitter.com/rooshv/status/1324183227951624194?s=20

Trash state

But even more so trash twitter account.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Is GA gonna count those remaining 48K ballots or

They aren’t nearly Democratic enough to make a difference at this point

Why do you keep saying this stuff when every VBM update comes back at least like 80-20 Dem?