KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Frenchrepublican]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

Come on. Between this and Moore just why???

We are the stupid party, don't forget it and we have a secret sauce to blow up winnable senatorial races (NV 2010, MO 2012, IN 2012, ND 2012, AL 2017, OH 2018, WV 2018....)

[Frenchrepublican]

Pompeo has created a personal Twitter account -

https://twitter.com/mikepompeo

Possibly a sign that he's going to jump in the Senate race soon?

He has until next June to decide

[Frenchrepublican]

Pompeo has created a personal Twitter account -

https://twitter.com/mikepompeo

Possibly a sign that he's going to jump in the Senate race soon?

He has until next June to decide

Even if Pompeo doesn't run, this seat is unwinnable for Democrats. Every Senate race in 2016 went the same way as the Presidential race, and I don't see why it should be different in 2020. Even if Kobach is the nominee, it would take a tremendous amount of split tickets.

I don’t know, but it would move the race from Safe R to Lean R and republicans would have to spend a lot of money to hold a seat they should have no business losing

[Frenchrepublican]

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/476159-wh-adviser-says-pompeo-will-not-run-for-senate?fbclid=IwAR1_WBCTDr5EFXugfrgGzMdv-1aifTBTY8koxwBb9vQAXplrXQL_YtpOG1I.

National Security advisor O'Brien says Pompeo probably isn't running. Guess it's time for Kobach to get the nomination and become the new Roy Moore/Todd Akin...

That's surprising, if true. It seems like Pompeo was making all the moves for a prospective campaign.

Apparently nobody really know what Pompeo will do. What this White House person is telling is just his own opinion.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/27/politics/mike-pompeo-social-media-possible-run-senate-kansas/index.html
’’The new accounts, which began posting in mid-December, are viewed by some inside the White House and State Department as platforms for Pompeo to begin building a personal brand ahead of a potential run, even as it remains unclear when and even if he will decide to depart the administration.
While some of Trump's advisers view it as a foregone conclusion that he will enter the Kansas US Senate contest, others are less sure he'll decide to reenter electoral politics’’

[Frenchrepublican]

Marshall wins by ~16 points, Kobach wins by ~7 1 after republicans spent millions of dollars to save his ass.

[Frenchrepublican]

If it's true Trump must throw his support behind Marshall and Wagle must be pressured to drop out. If Kobach is the nominee we are looking at a possible repeat of AL-2017 or IN-2012

[Frenchrepublican]

I don't buy that Pompeo is really out. He keeps saying no, then "maybe", then no again. This will keep happening until he either enters or the filing deadline (June 1) passes.

Frankly with the Iran hot potato issue he is likely to remain where he is

[Frenchrepublican]

Marshall wins by 7-12% if he runs a competent campaign (big if), Kobach either loses narrowly or wins by the skin of his teeth (something like a 1% win, at best a MO-SEN 2016 "redux").

Kobach will make this competitive, no doubt whatsoever.

E: Also, I’m getting Heitkamp vibes from Bollier tbh

Marshall wins by Abbott-Davis margins lul

Yeah, Marshall would win by double digits, something like 57/42, MT Treasurer seems very pessimistic about Kansas, don’t know why though

[Frenchrepublican]

Apparently the campaign to recruit Pompeo will end.
https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1214634518981828610?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

The Marshall plan is on the way.

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1214640977824145408?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

MT Treasurer seems very pessimistic about Kansas, don’t know why though

I think Marshall would win (not by a landslide though), but I certainly don’t buy the "Titanium R KS" narrative.

1. Kobach is a serious contender for the nomination and probably even a slight favorite. He’s as close to a Kansan version of Roy Moore as you could realistically get.
2. This state elected a Democratic governor in 2018 and it wasn’t even close. Yes, KS has elected Democratic governors before, but defying the partisan lean of your state in 2018 matters a lot more than it did in 2002, especially when your victory is fueled by the same larger suburban trends we observed all over the country.
3. This particular seat was already competitive with an uncontroversial Republican incumbent in a Republican wave year, and KS has only gotten less Republican since then.  
4. The state is pretty clearly trending Democratic, and Trump doing significantly worse in 2020 than in 2016 will only help Bollier. It’s much easier to overcome a 10-point deficit at the top of the ticket than it is to overcome a 20-point deficit.
5. Bollier is basically the embodiment of the Democrat who has exactly the right profile to win statewide. She fits her state like a glove and has run a pretty good campaign so far.
6. Red states are generally more open to sending candidates from the other party to the Senate than blue states.
7. Even if Marshall wins the nomination, he’ll probably have to move to the right to beat Kobach in the primary, which will hurt him in a general election.

TL;DR: This is not the kind of race Republicans can take for granted.

1. I agree, even if he is not (at least) a pedo
2. So by your own standard Cassidy will lose in LA ?
3. Roberts is unpopular because he has spent his life in DC and doesn't live in KS anymore  
4. Trump won KS by 20 points in 2016, which is not far worse than Romney. Why do you think he will win it by only 10 points this year ? Kansas  is not Johnson County and you should stop acting like if that was the case.
5. A liberal suburban women will attract conservative working class voters in Wichita ? Or rural pro guns voters. LOL. She is basically a McCaskill clone.
6. That's unfortunately true, but Kansas is less prone to do so than WV or MT
7. Because KS is not a conservative state anymore ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol. Kansas is Safe R, period. Kobach isn't going to win the primary. MUH TITANIUM D JOHNSON COUNTY

Yeah, without Kobach it's Safe R

[Frenchrepublican]

I think the only hope for Republicans here is for Pompeo to change his mind.

With KS gone, CO almost certainly gone and AZ possibly gone, the Republicans may end up with just 51 senators.

Sure, because you say it it must be true

[Frenchrepublican]

IE changed their rating from Safe to Lean R, as they think Kobach is the primary frontrunner. https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/kansas-senate-pompeo-decision-makes-seat-more-vulnerable

That's really stupid from him, even if unsurprising.

In 2018 Kobach won the primary with 40% of the vote (despite having the Trump endorsement), this time he is now a proven loser as he lost the general election, which will hurt him in the eyes of some primary voters and Trump is unlikely to endorse him again, actually Trump will likely be pressured to endorse one of his establisment opponents, so the idea that he will necessarily win the primary should be looked at with some scepticism.

[Frenchrepublican]

2. So by your own standard Cassidy will lose in LA ?
3. Roberts is unpopular because he has spent his life in DC and doesn't live in KS anymore  
4. Trump won KS by 20 points in 2016, which is not far worse than Romney. Why do you think he will win it by only 10 points this year ? Kansas  is not Johnson County and you should stop acting like if that was the case.
5. A liberal suburban women will attract conservative working class voters in Wichita ? Or rural pro guns voters. LOL. She is basically a McCaskill clone.
6. That's unfortunately true, but Kansas is less prone to do so than WV or MT
7. Because KS is not a conservative state anymore ?

2. No. He’s an uncontroversial Republican incumbent in the Deep South in a state where the Democratic bench has been decimated. Hardly comparable to Kansas.
3. Cool, do you think any of this would have mattered if Pat Roberts had been a Democratic incumbent up for reelection in a Clinton +20 state in 2018?
4. The state is more suburban than you would expect. Johnson County (where Bollier happens to be from) contains more than 20% of the state's population, and it’s only growing (for a more detailed forecast: https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2016/02/03/kansas-population-johnson-county-wichita-state.html). But you’re right, other counties in the state are trending Democratic as well, while the Republican counties are pretty much maxed out for the GOP and losing population. There’s no way Trump wins KS by 20% in 2020.
5. She’s not running as a liberal woman, she’s running as a Republican-turned-bipartisan. The former doesn’t sell well in KS, the latter sure does, especially given the alternative.
6. Probably true, but that’s not saying much, especially in the case of MT.
7. It is, but it’s rarely sent Republican fire-breathers or hardcore conservatives to the Senate (I guess Brownback counts, but he was far less controversial as Senator than governor). Sheila Frahm and Nancy Kassebaum hardly qualify as Republicans these days.

Either way, the idea that this race is "Safe" R if states like IA are rated Lean R at worst is nonsense. Nathan Gonzales just moved the race from Solid R to Lean R.

2. Well, the reason why I talked about LA is that you mentioned the 2018 KS-GOV results as the proof that republicans would lose Kansas : ''This state elected a Democratic governor in 2018 and it wasn’t even close. Yes, KS has elected Democratic governors before, but defying the partisan lean of your state in 2018 matters a lot more than it did in 2002, especially when your victory is fueled by the same larger suburban trends we observed all over the country. '' So yeah, by your standard the fact that a democrat won the LA-GOV race last year with the massive support of suburban voters would mean that the LA-Sen race is going to flip, see why it's stupid to compare Gov and Sen races ?

3. What's your point here ? Sure, democrats usually don't care about where their senator live and Roberts would have won easily, but that's not the question here.

4. Yeah, Johnson County is growing, but like you explained the county represents only 20% of the state population, so stop acting like if Johnson County was the equivalent of Cook County for Illinois

5. Yeah, the Charlie Crist playbook, ''the GOP was great Under W but now with Trump they're just nazis.''
Yeah, this kind of strategy will work among Bush/Obama or Romney/Clinton soccer moms, but once again these voters are not enough to win KS in a federal race.

6. The last time they sent a D Senator it was in 1932, so yeah this element should be noted

7. That has nothing to do with how we should rate this race, TN was also once know for electing moderate republicans to the Senate, that's not the case today but TN is still Safe R.

[Frenchrepublican]

If it was Kobach-Marshall duel in a GOP primary, Kobach would lose. But Kansas' GOP primary doesn't have a runoff. Kobach can win GOP primary with a 35% bloc of radical GOP voters if Marshall has to share moderate, non-radical votes with Wagle and Lindstrom.

Yeah, that will be the main challenge for the GOP, they need to push out Wagle and Trump must endorse Marshall in order to help him consolidate the anti Kobach conservative vote.

[Frenchrepublican]

Bollier raised $1.1 million in... Kansas. Looks like she has a great shot.

This isn't much of an indicator. McGrath also raised a ton of money in KY, yet I'm sure she doesn't stand a chance against the old turtle. KS will be more competitive, but this is still a likely R race.

You have also to keep in mind that raising $ 1.1M in the Trump Era is not that impressive, you have some House members / House candidates who raised as much money or more

[Frenchrepublican]

With Pompeo out, How likely is Roger Marshall to get the nomination for the senate from KS?

Hard to tell as of now.
Anti-Kobach republicans have to unite behind one candidate, Trump must/should do everything he can to push Wagle out of the race and must endorse Marshall in order to help win the nomination, now I remain sceptic of Kobach winning the primary, he won only 40% of the vote two years ago in the R primary (with the Trump endorsement) and the fact he lost the Gov-race won't help him as he is now seen as a loser by conservative voters.

[Frenchrepublican]

2. Well, the reason why I talked about LA is that you mentioned the 2018 KS-GOV results as the proof that republicans would lose Kansas : ''This state elected a Democratic governor in 2018 and it wasn’t even close. Yes, KS has elected Democratic governors before, but defying the partisan lean of your state in 2018 matters a lot more than it did in 2002, especially when your victory is fueled by the same larger suburban trends we observed all over the country. '' So yeah, by your standard the fact that a democrat won the LA-GOV race last year with the massive support of suburban voters would mean that the LA-Sen race is going to flip, see why it's stupid to compare Gov and Sen races ?

3. What's your point here ? Sure, democrats usually don't care about where their senator live and Roberts would have won easily, but that's not the question here.

4. Yeah, Johnson County is growing, but like you explained the county represents only 20% of the state population, so stop acting like if Johnson County was the equivalent of Cook County for Illinois

5. Yeah, the Charlie Crist playbook, ''the GOP was great Under W but now with Trump they're just nazis.''
Yeah, this kind of strategy will work among Bush/Obama or Romney/Clinton soccer moms, but once again these voters are not enough to win KS in a federal race.

6. The last time they sent a D Senator it was in 1932, so yeah this element should be noted

7. That has nothing to do with how we should rate this race, TN was also once know for electing moderate republicans to the Senate, that's not the case today but TN is still Safe R.

2. Yeah... no, you just ignored my previous points (LA Dems have no bench, the Deep South is more Republican and ‘inflexible’ than KS, there’s no uncontroversial R incumbent running for reelection in KS, etc.).

3. My point is that Republicans suck at winning Senate races in red states (KS-SEN 2014, MO-SEN 2016, WV-SEN 2018, etc.).

4. Johnson is hardly the only KS county trending Democratic...

5. She’s probably also going to do better than Biden in rural KS, even if it’s only by 4-6% or something like that (in a close race, that could be the difference).

6. These things are true until they aren’t.

7. Eh, Blackburn underperformed Trump/Lee by a lot, so saying that this doesn’t matter isn’t really accurate. Bredesen did 15 points better than Clinton; if Bollier does 15 points better than Biden, the race will be a Tossup at worst for Dems.

By the time election day rolls around Bollier is going to make you guys sweat like dogs

If Kobach wins primary its D+1 and if Marshall does it's a tossup, it would of been safe R only if Pompeo ran

This, minus the Pompeo part.

2. You compared Gov races and Sen races even if there are big differences between them, what were your other points ? And once again the fact that democrats won the KS-Gov race is not a sign that the state is stampeding to the left like you seem to believe it, if we apply your logic, yeah Cassidy is vulnerable because republicans lost the LA Gov race last year.
And no, KS is as much republican than states like LA or MS, and there are no proof that KS voters are particulary ''flexible'' or open to vote for a democrat outside of Gov races.

3. Republicans won the 2016 MO-Sen race and the 2014 KS-Sen race, so what's  your point ?Yeah, they were closer than they should have been but the combination of a good climate (KS-2014) or the presence of Trump on the ballot (MO-2016) + the conservative lean of the state was too much for democrats to take these seats and the KS-SEN race will likely features the same problem for democrats, Trump will win KS by 15 points or more and there are simply not enough ''split ticket'' voters to push the democratic candidate across the finish line.

4. Yeah, Douglas and Shawnee are also trending to the left but they're too small to matter

5. Doing 5 or 6 points better than Biden is not enough to win statewide, unless you expect Trump to win KS by less than 10

6. Yeah, but it still pretty signficative, that's why I was very sceptic about the possibility of Menendez losing in NJ, considering that the state last elected a republican senator in the 1970's

7. Bredesen is a far stronger democrat than Bollier who is basically a upscale, liberal establishment democrat who has not particular appeal with conservative voters

Bollier doesn't worry me, Kobach worries me (even if he would be a slight favourite) as he would force republicans to spend a lot of money in what should be a safe race.

[Frenchrepublican]

Dole endorses Roger Marshall.

Great new, republicans have to coalesce around him and Trump would be smart to endorse him

[Frenchrepublican]

New poll has Marshall (slightly) ahead. Lots of undecideds!

Marshall - 29%
Kobach - 28%
Wagle - 6%

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article239488068.html

Yeah, I doubt that Kobach will win more than 35% of the primary vote. The big question is how will the electorate will be spread, in a Marshall vs Kobach duel Marshall will win.

[Frenchrepublican]

It might receive minor backlash, but I don’t think this will be a factor by the time August rolls around. The benefit of not having them on the ballot outweighs and negative effect this could have short-term.

Yeah, but it's clear Trump will have to open fire on Kobach it we want to make sure that this idiot doesn't end up being our candidate.

[Frenchrepublican]

Bob Hamilton's announcement video, for those interested. A Plumber, not a Politician. Could resonate well with KSGOP voters!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=50&v=AwQ_oclT610&feature=emb_logo

Considering you're from KS, who do you think he will hurt the most ? Kobach ?