New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Is Haley likely to win any counties in NH?

She already has lol

Those are towns not counties

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I really hope Phillips gets under 20%, I want to deny him "victory"

Phillips is easily clearing 20%. The question is more about 25% or 30% at this point.

He's at 21% right now. Why would he gain 5-10% by the end? You keep saying stuff with no evidence backing it up.

Honestly given the present Manchester votes I don't see him following below 20%

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Fox has called it for Trump

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

NYT has Phillips ticked up to 20.8%

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Wait, so will Phillips get any delegates, or not? Cause I saw some info saying NH is sending no delegates, and other saying they're sending a reduced but still extant number.

NH gets no delegates

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

the amount of GOP voters to Dem voters in this primary should be concerning for Democrat's. Maybe I am wrong..

Not necessarily. "Competitive" primaries usually outperform incumbents  

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

NYT has 100k counted and Trump +8.6, 53.8-46.2
CNN has 90k counted and Trump +12.4, 55.4-43.0

Not sure if they're missing/adding the same places or if they're seeing different places being reported

Decision desk is at 131k Trump +10.8 55.0-44.2

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Only things left of interest:

1. Can Haley hold onto Grafton and keep up her streak of winning 1 county?

2. Can Trump stay double digits ahead- I lean yes at this point

3. Who were the other Dem writes?

4. How much below 70% does Biden fall- Seems Phillips will finish between 20-26 but Biden's percentage is harder to figure given the write in situation.


  

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Is there anywhere to see county-level results? I’m curious about Haley winning Grafton or others.

Politico has it by County

https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/new-hampshire/

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1750011347004240030

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Also, are we going to talk about how the polling average overestimated Trump? This of course I believe was due more to a last minute surge of Indies wading into the GOP primary, which was a bit unpredictable in terms of share (even 1% or 2% more or less would change things a few pts) but I do think there is an argument to be made for the whole "Trump always outperforms his polling" when he has now underperformed his polling twice now this cycle.

Primaries are not general elections.