Lean Lipinski as the progressive wing will be divided between Newman and another left wing candidate.
Illinois has also open primaries thus I could see some conservative voters crossing over to support Lipinski
However the race will take place at the same time as the Illinois Presidential Primary.
The presidential republican primary will be largely uncontested thus if you are a conservative voter who like Lipinski, you cross over and vote for Lipinski
There will still be higher turnout overall than last year's primary, which will include a number of left-leaners who may have sat out.
Well true many people think low turnout primaries in New York have benefited insurgent progressives who have fired up supporters. I could see quite a few people showing up for the presidential primaries and just voting the incumbent