Rate IL-3 Dem Primary

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Rate the IL-3 Dem Primary for 2020.

Bold prediction: Lean Newman and she wins by 4%

[Gracile]

It's a tossup, gun to my head Newman barely pulls it off.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean Lipinski as the progressive wing will be divided between Newman and another left wing candidate.
Illinois has also open primaries thus I could see some conservative voters  crossing over to support Lipinski

[Gracile]

Lean Lipinski as the progressive wing will be divided between Newman and another left wing candidate.
Illinois has also open primaries thus I could see some conservative voters  crossing over to support Lipinski

The other left-wing candidate in the race is a total nobody; Newman pretty much has a monopoly over the progressive wing in this district (in terms of energy, support, etc). I don't think it will make that much of a difference.

[Gass3268]

Lean Lipinski as the progressive wing will be divided between Newman and another left wing candidate.
Illinois has also open primaries thus I could see some conservative voters  crossing over to support Lipinski

However the race will take place at the same time as the Illinois Presidential Primary.

[PAK Man]

Tossup/Tilt Lipinski. Illinois has open primaries so Republicans who like Lipinski can vote for him in the Democratic primary, which I think is what saved him last time. I'm shocked she actually almost unseated him last time, but I don't think she'll accomplish it this time.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean Lipinski as the progressive wing will be divided between Newman and another left wing candidate.
Illinois has also open primaries thus I could see some conservative voters  crossing over to support Lipinski

The other left-wing candidate in the race is a total nobody; Newman pretty much has a monopoly over the progressive wing in this district (in terms of energy, support, etc). I don't think it will make that much of a difference.

It's easy to imagine a such scenario happening

Lipinski : 46%
Newman : 42%
Minor left wing candidate 1 : 4%
Minor left wing candidate 2 : 4%

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean Lipinski as the progressive wing will be divided between Newman and another left wing candidate.
Illinois has also open primaries thus I could see some conservative voters  crossing over to support Lipinski

However the race will take place at the same time as the Illinois Presidential Primary.

The presidential republican primary will be largely uncontested thus if you are a conservative voter who like Lipinski, you cross over and vote for Lipinski

[Gracile]

Lean Lipinski as the progressive wing will be divided between Newman and another left wing candidate.
Illinois has also open primaries thus I could see some conservative voters  crossing over to support Lipinski

However the race will take place at the same time as the Illinois Presidential Primary.

The presidential republican primary will be largely uncontested thus if you are a conservative voter who like Lipinski, you cross over and vote for Lipinski

There will still be higher turnout overall than last year's primary, which will include a number of left-leaners who may have sat out.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Likely Newman, I think he is done this time. Hope not though, really wishing that GOP voters will reinforce us in the primary again and save Dan, please help us sane dems out you guys!

[OneJ]

I'll go with lean Newman as well.

[TML]

I think it was telling that DCCC chair Cheri Bustos pulled out of a planned fundraiser for Lipinski recently, at a time where abortion rights were front and center in the national media.

I believe that due to the amount of attention devoted to abortion rights recently, this will be the thing which ends up pulling Newman over the finish line.

[We Live in Black and White]

Hard to say, given that the DCCC is inexplicably doing more in their power to prop up Lipinski than they are for certain swing seat incumbents, but I don't think Lipinski pulls it off again.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It will be a tossup again. But Newman stands a much better chance this time, so that might make it tilt her direction.

[beesley]

Lipinski's Probably hoping there's a selection of Dems who are definitely voting in the presidential primary and will vote for him just because he's the incumbent, when in reality there probably aren't that many and they won't vote at all.

[Gass3268]

Gillibrand, Inslee, and Sanders have all endorsed Newman as well. I wouldn't be shocked if Warren and possibly Harris did the same as we get close to the Illinois primary.

[CookieDamage]

Likely Newman, I think he is done this time. Hope not though, really wishing that GOP voters will reinforce us in the primary again and save Dan, please help us sane dems out you guys!

Hoping Republicans interfere to prop up an out-of-touch conservative Dem who would never win anywhere else and only has his seat because his father had this seat is typical Bagel. And he's a sane Dem?? He's further right than any milquetoast moderate but you are probably two elections away from switching to the Republican party so I'm not surprised.

[Green Line]

Newman’s contempt for the Catholic voters of the district is very clear, she’s an underdog.  There’s also a third candidate running who is clearly there to take votes away from her - thank you Madigan!

[ON Progressive]

Newman’s contempt for the Catholic voters of the district is very clear, she’s an underdog.  There’s also a third candidate running who is clearly there to take votes away from her - thank you Madigan!

[Green Line]

Newman’s contempt for the Catholic voters of the district is very clear, she’s an underdog.  There’s also a third candidate running who is clearly there to take votes away from her - thank you Madigan!

👅

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Lean Lipinski as the progressive wing will be divided between Newman and another left wing candidate.
Illinois has also open primaries thus I could see some conservative voters  crossing over to support Lipinski

However the race will take place at the same time as the Illinois Presidential Primary.

The presidential republican primary will be largely uncontested thus if you are a conservative voter who like Lipinski, you cross over and vote for Lipinski

There will still be higher turnout overall than last year's primary, which will include a number of left-leaners who may have sat out.

Well true many people think low turnout primaries in New York have benefited insurgent progressives who have fired up supporters. I could see quite a few people showing up for the presidential primaries and just voting the incumbent 

[brucejoel99]

It's a tossup, gun to my head Newman barely pulls it off.

[Ye We Can]

Lean Newman, Lipinski's narrow win just exposed how vulnerable he is lol

[Gass3268]

Should also note that the Illinois Primary will be on St. Patrick's Day, March 17. This is the most Irish district in Illinois, and possibly the most Irish district in the country not in the Northeast. Could have an effect.