2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[lfromnj]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

Its racial depolarization but with caveats. There is still fluidity in the vote and CA urban centers didnt appear to move very much.

Los Angeles County appears to have swung toward Trump.

You can't really conclude that without knowing which votes are outstanding.

The CA numbers are going to get more Dem. Also, the numbers in Riverside and SB are fairly telling, as far as Latinos go.

Theres a reverse counting bias this year atleast early on.

[lfromnj]

By the way Minnesota ds didn't even flip the state senate

[lfromnj]

By the way Minnesota ds didn't even flip the state senate

Tina Smith also underperformed. Just ahead 48-43% as we speak. Sure, a win is a win, but she got 53% in 2018.

But but but Jason Lewis trash talk host radio , Smith will be Klobuchar 2.0

[lfromnj]

Is there any chance at all that Gideon wins? I can't figure out who the remaining vote in Maine will favor.

You gotta think Collins needs to be in the 47-48 range for that to be likely for Gideon to win on IRV, although I'll defer to anyone who knows more

Also all of Cumberland is in for Maine, the rest of the state is still out although not sure how later ballots lean.

[lfromnj]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609

People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

Well turnout here is usually super awful so there were a lot of of hidden voters to begin with.

[lfromnj]

If John James wins blame Oakland County liberals who feel guilty and wanted to pay reparations in some form.

[lfromnj]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

How about we stop promoting baseless conspiracy theories.

IIRC there is some infamous ballot harvesting and similar stuff with the Cubans in MD county but that wasn't the main factor. Might have cost Ds a house seat though.

[lfromnj]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

Didn't Bush actually win Tejanos? Like Hillary was obviously uniquely strong with Latinos, but this isn't 2004 all over again.

Idk if he won them but he did a hint better than Trump in the Rio Grande Valley. Bush was governor of Texas though, so Trump might've done better in a relative sense.

Yes Bush did overall better in the RGV due to the 3 bigger counties trending D from 2004(cameron/webb/Hidalgo) in the rest of the RGV Trump did better than Bush.

[lfromnj]

The more I look, the more I see Maine senate as still up for grabs, but Collins is favoured if she stays over 48%.

If the remaining 25% of votes break a very possible, and perhaps slightly conservative estimate here, 60% for Gideon, two-candidate preferred:

1,051,376 votes total (if there's exactly 25% outstanding)
262,844 votes remaining

Gideon to gain 60% two candidate preferred means +157,706.4
Collins to gain 40% two candidate preferred means +105,137.6

Gideon net gain = 52,569

Current gap based on first preferences only = 40,825

And that's before factoring in the votes for the other two candidates - Linn's 1.7% probably breaks towards Collins pretty strongly, but Savage's 5% probably breaks towards Gideon strongly.

Long story short from someone who is very used to looking at preferential voting - Maine Senate is still very much up for grabs.

Reminder that I don't know how late votes in Maine will break but it seems Biden's margin will go down, All of Cumberland is in which is the most D county by a huge margin.

[lfromnj]

So anyway looks like Kenosha county WI swung 2 points to the right,

Kenosha BUMP?

lol.

[lfromnj]

The critical Joe Manchin endorsement saved Susan Collins.

[lfromnj]

Last time was during Cleveland .

[lfromnj]

Whitfield County, the most Latino county in all of GA, goes from 70-25 Trump in 2016 to 69-29 Trump in 2020. Par for course for what Biden needs to win GA.

Trump did net 1k votes from there btw.

[lfromnj]

Obviously all votes aren't in yet so not making any final predictions but Trump is doing better in the Bronx than Manhattan
LOLOLOL.

[lfromnj]

Anyway Trump did improve in Santa Cruz and Yuma counties by 5-6 points on % margin, suggesting  so far there was a hispanic swing in Arizona too. However the problem for the GOP is that AZ whites are basically like 2016 CO whites.

[lfromnj]

You all went from "Uncle Joe 400+ landslide + senate + PR state + court packing" to clawing for 270 and conceding the Senate.

Very low-energy, definitely not strong lol

Actually, I never predicted a 413 map, don't care about Puerto Rico, and oppose court packing. Maybe make an effort and do actual some research before you respond to me.

What happened to JOEHIO?

[lfromnj]

M A R - A - L A G O   J O E

Oh this is great, im gonna keep quoting Rafe sh**t tier poster who just ruined the quality of this board with his sh**t random one liners.

[lfromnj]

BLM cost Long Island Democrats big time..........

Tom Suozzi looks like he is going down.

Told you. I know the NYC area. The NYPD is a cult following here. Even in Jersey.

Max Rose, Tom Suozzi, all moderate Democrats, gone.

https://twitter.com/coochievuitton/status/1324053802618658816

New York always looks like that, yes some gains were made by reps near NYC, but its clear this person hasn't looked at an NY electoral map ever. Besides likely being racist, the twitter poster's grammar leaves a lot to be desired as well.

Also as of now Trump is doing better in the Bronx than Manhattan

[lfromnj]

Why was Georgia the only state where the polls seem to be accurate?

Seems like they were also pretty accurate in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Uh no?
Maine 2 was said to be voting for Biden, I don't think he won a single county in the district. Maine is such a big win rn coz all of Cumberland is in while theres still a decent portion in Maine 2nd like 20%.

[lfromnj]

Not good at all, and the fact Atlas STILL hasn’t learned to not be an echo chamber is shocking.
After last night, I would expect at least a bit more caution.

The fact that Michigan was called for Biden I would think you a little more humble and aelf-aware, but apparently not.

The fact that Elliot county went for Trump by a greater margin might teach you a bit, but apparently not.

[lfromnj]

Not good at all, and the fact Atlas STILL hasn’t learned to not be an echo chamber is shocking.
After last night, I would expect at least a bit more caution.

The fact that Michigan was called for Biden I would think you a little more humble and aelf-aware, but apparently not.

The fact that Elliot county went for Trump by a greater margin might teach you a bit, but apparently not.

Don’t forget KY-06!

I said both of these things MIGHT flip, knowing they were uphill battles and being optimistic.

Significant difference between that and running around the forum for months acting extraordinarily smug and certain about a highly specific prediction that has already proved totally wrong.

"might" flip, only off by 52 points.

Biden does better than any Democrat since 08 in WV

LOL
Anyway my problem is his absolute continuing to be smug despite refusing to even eat the most basic of crows.

[lfromnj]

The most hillarious part is Trump is trailing in AZ and these idiots want the count to stop.

[lfromnj]

Its actually hilarious how Dems start trashing Cubans as greedy trash once they decide to swing one way after they nearly voted for Clinton in 2016.  You do realize these are one of the most elastic groups of voters in atleast a relatively close state?
Why not try winning them instead of trashing them?

[lfromnj]

Its actually hilarious how Dems start trashing Cubans as greedy trash once they decide to swing one way after they nearly voted for Clinton in 2016.

there's like one person on here trashing Cubans.  most people just think Trump manipulated the situation in South Florida like the con man he is.  Bottom line is Miami Dade didn't do it alone.

Yeah, "BIDEN IS A COMMIE WHO'S GOING TO SELL OFF THE COUNTRY TO MADURO" is obviously a crock of crap, but believing it doesn't make you a bad person, just one susceptible to a certain type of fearmongering.

I mean one dem called them worms all the way down, and 3 people supported that, would have at least expected more people to call them out.


Maybe I get trashing rural deep southern white voters, they really aren't gonna vote for the Dems anyway, but these Cubans are absolutely winnable, they are very elastic and key for Dems to winning this state.

[lfromnj]

If Biden wins GA I will exclusively use Georgia based businesses for a year. The good people of Atlanta deserve it. F#ck you AA in Fort Worth--Delta gets my money from now on.

BRTD?